EPTI wonder what the end game for all this mess will be.
Iraq & Syrian Civil Wars - Page 198
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Please guys, stay on topic. This thread is about the situation in Iraq and Syria. | ||
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TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
I wonder what the end game for all this mess will be. | ||
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nunez
Norway4003 Posts
On August 04 2014 06:11 xDaunt wrote: Well yeah, obviously Turkey is involved via proxy, as are a bunch of other countries. I'm talking about involvement by Turkish regulars. hersh reported that us, uk, turkey, saudi and qatar were involved in smugling weapons from gadaffis arsenal to whathaveyoubists in syria through turkey: link. filth. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14220 Posts
If they take over all of syria, lebanon, and eastern iraq turkey and isreal will probably launch an invasion north and take over all the land they've been preparing to take ever sense the last great war in the region. Merkava Tanks are stronger then The main battle tanks that we gave the iraqi foces and posses advanced anti missles systems that can foil even the state of the art anti tank missles of the day. | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16129 Posts
On August 04 2014 07:21 Sermokala wrote: It shouldn't really be a surprise to many people how organized they are. They've been fighting a war for 2 years now rebuilding in syria and recruited a lot of the officers and generals that weren't allowed back into the iraq army after sadamm fell. Now that they took a more peaceful stance tword the tribes they've been given tons of manpower and equipment to operate in every direction. If they take over all of syria, lebanon, and eastern iraq turkey and isreal will probably launch an invasion north and take over all the land they've been preparing to take ever sense the last great war in the region. Merkava Tanks are stronger then The main battle tanks that we gave the iraqi foces and posses advanced anti missles systems that can foil even the state of the art anti tank missles of the day. Well I think I know at least one Mid-East power that won't wait that long. Iran. http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/08/03/uk-iraq-security-iran-idINKBN0G30K020140803 Shirkhani did not die in a battle inside Iran. He was killed nearly a hundred miles away from the Iranian border in a mortar attack by the militants of the Islamic State “while carrying out his mission to defend” a revered Shiite shrine in the city of Samarra, according to a report on Basij Press, a news site affiliated with the Basij militia which is overseen by the Revolutionary Guards. Shirkhani’s death deep inside Iraq shows that Iran has committed boots on the ground to defend Iraqi territory. Like I said, this is an ethnic war. Iran isn't going to let IS continue like this. The main question then for me is, what does the US do when Iran starts exerting more of its military in the region. Enemy of my enemy approach? | ||
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On August 04 2014 07:01 nunez wrote: hersh reported that us, uk, turkey, saudi and qatar were involved in smugling weapons from gadaffis arsenal to whathaveyoubists in syria through turkey: link. filth. Umm, that's some really dirty laundry if true. | ||
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TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On August 04 2014 07:30 Vindicare605 wrote: Well I think I know at least one Mid-East power that won't wait that long. Iran. http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/08/03/uk-iraq-security-iran-idINKBN0G30K020140803 Like I said, this is an ethnic war. Iran isn't going to let IS continue like this. The main question then for me is, what does the US do when Iran starts exerting more of its military in the region. Enemy of my enemy approach? You'll hear it from the Saudis and other Sunni regimes first. | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16129 Posts
On August 04 2014 07:45 TanGeng wrote: You'll hear it from the Saudis and other Sunni regimes first. The Saudi's are supposedly trying to distance themselves from the IS though, which is hilarious considering they're the guys that trained and indoctrinated most of them. Ultimately I think the IS' brutality is going to be their undoing. No established regime, Sunni or otherwise can formally back them or look like they are aiding in their kind of tactics. Compared to the IS, the Iranians look like good guys. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22697 Posts
On August 04 2014 08:22 Vindicare605 wrote: The Saudi's are supposedly trying to distance themselves from the IS though, which is hilarious considering they're the guys that trained and indoctrinated most of them. Ultimately I think the IS' brutality is going to be their undoing. No established regime, Sunni or otherwise can formally back them or look like they are aiding in their kind of tactics. Compared to the IS, the Iranians look like good guys. They dont need to be backed by a regime. They made their own. It looks like their downfall might happen when they finally over-extend and piss off someone with the power to end them but until then they can pretty much whatever they want it seems. ps. That worse then Iran comment just makes you look clueless since a lot of countries, including yours, are worse then Iran. | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16129 Posts
On August 04 2014 08:27 Gorsameth wrote: They dont need to be backed by a regime. They made their own. It looks like their downfall might happen when they finally over-extend and piss off someone with the power to end them but until then they can pretty much whatever they want it seems. ps. That worse then Iran comment just makes you look clueless since a lot of countries, including yours, are worse then Iran. I'm not trying to excuse US fuckery in the middle east, I know perfectly well how bad we've been. It's our fault this whole mess is happening in the first place because Bush/Cheney thought it would be a swell idea to invade and overthrow a secular regime even though nearly every military adviser we had at the time including Bush's own father told him that was a terrible idea. The Iran comment is specifically referring to United States and NATO policy in the region. The question is what do they do next if anything? Iran isn't a friend of NATO, but in this particular conflict the Iranians are fighting the same extremists we would be if we still had troops deployed there. As far as IS goes, they can't expect to hold on to their conquests in the long term so long as the rest of the world sees them as a terrorist organization. They'll need allies eventually. | ||
zatic
Zurich15366 Posts
On August 04 2014 08:33 Vindicare605 wrote: As far as IS goes, they can't expect to hold on to their conquests in the long term so long as the rest of the world sees them as a terrorist organization. They'll need allies eventually. I don't know, it seems they truly found a sweet spot there. There is currently a complete unwillingness in the West to get directly involved in the Region, and there is no reason to believe that is going to change for years to come (as long as IS doesn't mess with Israel or Turkey). They, IS, seem to be pretty damn smart in who to attack so far. They'll likely solidify in Northern Iraq and push Assad further against the wall. I highly doubt they'll attack Baghdad any time soon, but it's not impossible either, especially if the country disintegrates further. They won't attack the Kurds further either, since oil smuggling into Kurdistan seems to be their main stream of income right now. There is already signs that Lebanon will be next on the list - another close-to-failed state that will have next to nothing to offer in resistance. In terms of finances, material, and personnel they are hilariously well equipped for a terror organization worse than any we have seen so far. It's probably no stretch to say they are the best funded terror group in history. | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16129 Posts
On August 04 2014 15:15 zatic wrote: I don't know, it seems they truly found a sweet spot there. There is currently a complete unwillingness in the West to get directly involved in the Region, and there is no reason to believe that is going to change for years to come (as long as IS doesn't mess with Israel or Turkey). They, IS, seem to be pretty damn smart in who to attack so far. They'll likely solidify in Northern Iraq and push Assad further against the wall. I highly doubt they'll attack Baghdad any time soon, but it's not impossible either, especially if the country disintegrates further. They won't attack the Kurds further either, since oil smuggling into Kurdistan seems to be their main stream of income right now. There is already signs that Lebanon will be next on the list - another close-to-failed state that will have next to nothing to offer in resistance. In terms of finances, material, and personnel they are hilariously well equipped for a terror organization worse than any we have seen so far. It's probably no stretch to say they are the best funded terror group in history. So long as their goal is seemingly to destroy everything not Sunni in their path they'll have a constant enemy in Iran. As powerful as these guys are thanks in no small part to an endless supply of poorly protected United States weapons for them to steal, they still are looking at decades at LEAST of warfare in which they have to win against virtually everyone in order to just consolidate power unilaterally. I don't see that happening. Someone else who is powerful will step in before it gets to that point, Russia, Israel, Turkey, the US, someone will step in. Especially since their successes are only going to continue to embolden other extremist groups that exist in the nations above. If they want to be a legit nation they have to at some point acknowledge the need for diplomacy, if they don't they'll eventually lose a war of attrition. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
with the amount of weapons ISIS has, they could be blowing up embassies, skyscrapers, plazas or buses daily; especially in Turkey or Russia. | ||
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radiatoren
Denmark1907 Posts
The above is from the wikipedia from august 1. The news since then seems to indicate advancements from ISIS towards Sinjar and Dohuk in northern Iraq against the Kurds. Particularly the Saddam Dam between Mosul and Duhok is significant. At the same time it seems the Iraqi Kurds are making slight progress around Kifri (near Iran). And the syrian army seems to push the main front closer to ar-Raqqahi. The small pockets of syrian government control inside IS is shrinking fast though, so the area controlled by IS still seems to be expanding. The Lebanon border is pretty far from the Islamic State so we are not looking at an immediate threat to the country unless a number of the secterian groups decide that ISIS is the light. On the other hand, Lebanon is extremely fragile due to massive amounts of assassinations and very unstable governments in a religiously diverse population. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki ordered his air force for the first time to back Kurdish forces against Islamic State fighters after the Sunni militants made another dramatic push through the north, state television reported on Monday. Source (Reuters) - The Lebanese army advanced on Monday into a border town attacked by Islamists at the weekend in the most serious spillover of the three-year-old Syrian civil war into Lebanon, and the Beirut government said the deadly assault would not go unpunished. With army reinforcements arriving in Arsal, Prime Minister Tammam Salam, a Sunni Muslim, said there could be no "political solutions" with the Sunni radicals identified as members of the Nusra Front and the Islamic State, which has seized wide areas of Syria and Iraq. Source | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
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radiatoren
Denmark1907 Posts
On August 05 2014 01:11 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: https://twitter.com/isisnews3/statuses/496160730048393217 Source Source That is good news from Salam. If even some of the sunnis in Lebanon are opposed to IS's radicalism, they are relatively isolated. I don't see Hezbollahs shia and the governments christians get on the IS side either, which makes a true civil war in Lebanon based around IS pretty unlikely. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
BEIRUT, Lebanon — A deadly confrontation worsened on Monday between Lebanon’s armed forces and Islamist insurgents from Syria who seized the border town of Arsal over the weekend in what appeared to be the most serious spillover of the Syrian civil war into Lebanese territory since the conflict began more than three years ago. The Lebanese Army said in a statement that its forces were engaged in fierce battles with the Islamists in Arsal, where witnesses reached by telephone, including the deputy mayor, said shelling had hit the town from multiple directions and many residents had fled. Arsal is also the temporary home of many Syrian war refugees who sought sanctuary there, and witnesses said Lebanese Army checkpoints were refusing to let the refugees relocate deeper into Lebanon. “The situation is miserable,” said Arsal’s deputy mayor, Ahmad Flitti. “Now the shelters are full, soon we are going to have shortages in drugs, and hospitals here will not be able to receive more wounded.” Source TRIPOLI, LEBANON — Clashes are becoming more frequent between the Lebanese army and Syrian insurgents - including jihadists - along the Lebanon-Syria border. This past weekend, Syrian rebels attacked the border town of Arsal, killing 11 Lebanese soldiers the fighting. Forty rebels also were killed. Despite the risk that the fighting will drag Lebanon fully into the mayhem of Syria's sectarian civil war, the country's militant Sunni sheikhs said they sympathize with jihadists in Iraq and Syria, including those fighting with al-Qaida-affilated groups. Sheikh Mohammed Gamil Nizah is a leading Sunni cleric in Lebanon's northern town of Tripoli, where local Sunnis have clashed frequently with the army and Shi'ite Muslims. Source | ||
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Maenander
Germany4927 Posts
On August 05 2014 01:48 xM(Z wrote: are all kurds as insane as Yazidi group? I wouldn't believe ISIS propaganda. But even if true, you have to understand the intense pressure the Yazidi face nowadays. Not only are they not Muslims, they are not even Christian or Jewish, which means they are a prime target for religious fanatics. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Qahtaniya_bombings Their communities are not located in the Kurdish "heartland" and therefore in great danger. In fact it looks like their culture is about to get annihilated. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
SHANGAL—Kurdish Peshmerga forces have entered Shangal, said military officials, and they have cornered militants of the Islamic State in parts of the town. Rudaw reporter in the area said that units from the 10,000-strong Peshmarga force who had encircled the town earlier in the day are now in the town center and try to rout the Islamic militants. The Peshmerga were able to enter Shangal following a heavy bombardment of the Rahman and Nasir sectors where the militants had taken position. Source | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
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