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The euro goes down after the US-econ crashed, maybe.
Look at the facts that show how bad the us-situation already is:
Obama asked about export-limitations to germany and china. This alone shows how bad it really is.
The problem is, the usa cant export so much because they dont have the stuff ppl want to buy ( ofc in some stuff they sell alot, but the majority of good products nowaday dont come from the usa ).
The EU (especially germany ) and china are strong with export because the products are competive on the worldmarket, and they can be expensive because of quality.
Another big factor is the money-politics the privatebank FED is doing, the dollar isnt worth the paper its produced of, they simply throw out new paper called dollar and think that ppl will accept it for products, it wont work. Russia and china nearly have no debts, they will be the big winners, the usa are loosing the power they held for many years, now there will be a hole, but the euro for sure dont crash bevor the usa-eco crashes.
mfg
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I don't believe that Euro zone gouvernments will have the necessary courage to let the Euro die. Todays politicians rarely have visions for the future but rather try to manage the present somehow - but without a future plan they won't change anything, but rather try to preserve the current system - the Euro in this case.
So, I think the Euro will sustain, although it might not be the best option for many countries. It might also be bad for social justice as it will prevent national bankruptcy for certain countries which could actually need one soon - Rather more and more of these states tax money will be only used for interests and move from the people into the financial industry - an antisocial redistribution born from huge national debts.
National bankrupts can be very necessary sometimes.
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BRUSSELS (AP) -- A European Union meeting over Ireland's debt crisis has ended with officials saying that Ireland hasn't asked for a bailout -- but that preparations have "intensified" for possible help for the country's troubled banking sector.
European Union monetary affairs chief Olli Rehn says that "the Irish authorities are committed to working" with the EU, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to calm market turmoil.
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DUBLIN – Ireland edged toward taking a bailout loan from the European Union to bolster its debt-crippled banks — but the prospect offered little reassurance that other corners of Europe could cope with their own crushing levels of government debt.
After Greece and likely Ireland, analysts say Portugal may be the next country in the 16-nation eurozone to need assistance. They suggest the crisis is now being driven less by irrational fears than by a growing realization that debts are too big for vulnerable nations to refinance, never mind pay back.
Experts from the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund descended Thursday on Dublin to explore the scope and terms of a bailout. European officials agreed to send them at a summit Tuesday after weeks of Irish denials that they required any emergency aid. The talks were to run into next week.
Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan insisted his government needed no money itself because it's fully funded through mid-2011. But Lenihan said he would welcome a "contingency capital fund" — a backstop for the country's troubled banks — effectively an overdraft or credit line.
Source
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Reaction from TL'ers in Europe?
DUBLIN – Ireland on Sunday became the second European nation to ask for a multibillion euro rescue loan to help stabilize its debt-ridden banks and Europe's finance ministers scrambled to talk about ways to relieve the country's debt crisis.
Other eurozone countries and the European Central Bank had pushed Dublin to accept help after anxiety over Ireland's massive bank-bailout bill threatened to spill over to the currency area's other shaky economies, including Portugal and Spain.
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Portugal in six months,Spain in one year or two.No worries we already knew it.
On another note,this is pretty alarming for every emerging country out there.
Three four years ago Ireland was the good student of EU,proving eastern countries that you could totally change your economy around and poke into the big economies club.
Nowadays it's more:look how high you can get before you collapse.
As for the repercussion on EU,Ireland is no big deal,sure it could have done without it.
Now if the same thing happens for Spain/Italy,yep we're in big trouble,and the rest of the world with us <.<
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DUBLIN – Anger and fear about Europe's seemingly unstoppable debt crisis coursed through the continent Wednesday. Striking workers shut down much of Portugal, Ireland proposed its deepest budget cuts in history and seething Italian and British students clashed with police over education cuts.
Amid it all, analysts were deeply skeptical about the future — saying even the desperate efforts of governments, the European Union and the International Monetary might not be enough to prevent countries from defaulting or banks from going under.
The Irish Stock Exchange saw a bloodbath in bank stocks as investors pushed the panic button and bond traders were betting that it would only be a matter of time before Portugal and possibly Spain would be the next countries begging for outside help.
In Lisbon, strikers all but closed the airport, stranding passengers who couldn't get in or out of the country.
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On November 17 2010 00:45 Willes wrote:
The euro goes down after the US-econ crashed, maybe.
Look at the facts that show how bad the us-situation already is:
Obama asked about export-limitations to germany and china. This alone shows how bad it really is.
The problem is, the usa cant export so much because they dont have the stuff ppl want to buy ( ofc in some stuff they sell alot, but the majority of good products nowaday dont come from the usa ).
The EU (especially germany ) and china are strong with export because the products are competive on the worldmarket, and they can be expensive because of quality.
Another big factor is the money-politics the privatebank FED is doing, the dollar isnt worth the paper its produced of, they simply throw out new paper called dollar and think that ppl will accept it for products, it wont work. Russia and china nearly have no debts, they will be the big winners, the usa are loosing the power they held for many years, now there will be a hole, but the euro for sure dont crash bevor the usa-eco crashes.
mfg
There is no way China can allow the US econ to collapse. Basically China and the US have entered a self-destructive symbiotic cycle where the US borrows from China and China asks for their money back. If the US econ collapses then they default on their debt to China, and China looses an enormous amount of debt. Simultaneously if China tries to sell out of that debt that will make the US dollar collapse anyways and then the debt China holds becomes worthless. Neither can afford for the other to fail.
But as long as the US has the most powerful military, nobody can actually force them to pay. The US possesses the best technologies (ie semiconductors) and research institutions and while china has cheap labour. In tandam with the strategic US-Canada alliance, the US is not really at risk of running out of natural resources either.
Edit: At least this is the way I interpret the situation. Of course there would be massive repercussions if the US defaulted on their debt and economies all over the world would grind to a halt, my point is that even if the US owed 100000 trillion dollars of debt, as long as they have the 3rd largest country in the world, remain close neighbors with Canada and their massive abundance of natural resources and maintain a technological lead and military dominance, it doesn't matter. The best you can hope for is that they pay.. you can't expect to make them pay.
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On November 25 2010 05:54 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
The Irish Stock Exchange saw a bloodbath in bank stocks as investors pushed the panic button and bond traders were betting that it would only be a matter of time before Portugal and possibly Spain would be the next countries begging for outside help.
To be fair bank stocks are getting wiped out because of the impending nationalisation of all banks.
It's pretty depressing that one day after we applied for a bail out, everybody is looking to go picking on Portugal, I mean Greece totally lied about their deficit and we completely failed to regulate our banks which combined with the ridiculously low interest rates we had till 2006 lead to a credit binge feulled by continental banks lending out without caution. Portugal just have sluggish growth, their deficit isn't even that big
I used to think the Euro was a good thing for 2 reasons.
1. Provides stability....well thats clearly bollocks, even pre-crisis our inflation was 6% per annum, price stability...for EU yes, for individual countries,,,fuck no.
2. Allow access to more liquid currency markets and minimises transactions costs for businesses.....doesn't matter with inflation running at 6% it wipes out any benefit for companies, at least the recession and the onset of deflation has improves our competitive position (there I said it deflation has benefits). Plus with our main trading partner not in the Euro the benefits were limited
Think the Euro is ok for most of the EU core, but we shouldn't be in it, our demographics and labour market are totally different to the rest of Europe plus would rather have the IMF bail us out than the EU since its clearly going to be highly politicised rather than based on getting the economy growing.
My absolute ideal outcome would now be that we stay in for another few years, get the books in order and stage an orderly withdrawal from the Euro and leave it to more synched nations. Though I still think inflation targeting is a good idea but on a nation by nation basis.
Of course if the Euro does collapse in a disorderly manner then a speedy devaluation a la 1994 should sort things out pretty lively
Funny how 6 months totally changed my view on things, 
More annoyingly I am now more in agreement with Friedman on things grrrrr
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On November 19 2010 06:51 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Show nested quote +
DUBLIN – Ireland edged toward taking a bailout loan from the European Union to bolster its debt-crippled banks — but the prospect offered little reassurance that other corners of Europe could cope with their own crushing levels of government debt.
After Greece and likely Ireland, analysts say Portugal may be the next country in the 16-nation eurozone to need assistance. They suggest the crisis is now being driven less by irrational fears than by a growing realization that debts are too big for vulnerable nations to refinance, never mind pay back.
Experts from the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund descended Thursday on Dublin to explore the scope and terms of a bailout. European officials agreed to send them at a summit Tuesday after weeks of Irish denials that they required any emergency aid. The talks were to run into next week.
Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan insisted his government needed no money itself because it's fully funded through mid-2011. But Lenihan said he would welcome a "contingency capital fund" — a backstop for the country's troubled banks — effectively an overdraft or credit line.
Source
So much for much for stopping contagion, people seem to have made up their minds on Portugal.
Will be crazy if Spain goes though, literally have no idea what will happen if get they shut out
EDIT* On a personal note it sucks to have to go through 6 years of budget cuts (€15 billion pulled out of economy in last 2.5 years, 15 billion to be removed in next four), but we're still far better off than we were in 94, thats perhaps the most galling thing of all, we're being bailed out by nations with lower average disposable incomes even after the recession, plus we're better placed to grow than most other EU nations, mainly because of a more flexible labour market. Note that I am talking about from around 2015 or so that growth will happen.
We've been incredibly spoiled but whats worse is we don't realise how lucky we were...and in fact still are, but perhaps I am over-weighting my own up bringing in the late 80's early 90's being from the 2nd poorest region in the nation when it was one of the poorest nations in Europe.
It pretty much spits in the face of any normal persons concept of natural justice. But at this stage all we can do is endeavour to pay you back and maybe actually regulate our banks this time, though inflation will become a huge problem in a few years again
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So is it common knowledge that Spain is in the red and still sliding or is that speculation?
LISBON, Portugal – Europe struggled mightily Friday to keep the debt crisis from engulfing country after country. Portugal passed austerity measures to fend off the speculative trades pushing it toward a bailout and Ireland rushed to negotiate its own imminent rescue.
As Portugal and Spain insisted they will not seek outside help, creating an eery sense of deja-vu for investors, Europe braced for what seems inevitable — more expensive bailouts.
The Portuguese Parliament approved an unpopular debt-reducing package, including tax hikes and cuts in pay and welfare benefits. But while that helped to avoid a sharper deterioration in bond markets, the sense among analysts was that the move had only bought a little time.
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One thing that always confused me is how people determine how much a currency is worth.
There's no formula, there's no method. Something is only worth how much we say it is.
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On November 29 2010 01:15 TALegion wrote:
One thing that always confused me is how people determine how much a currency is worth.
There's no formula, there's no method. Something is only worth how much we say it is.
lolwat. If what you say is true, then the value of the U.S. dollar is the same as the Zimbabwe currency right? No no no. Zimbabwe's currency is worth more! Right?
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I'm sure that a lot of you have seen this already, but I'd like to know what Europeans think about it. For those that don't know, this is a speech by the British representative at the EU Parliament where he blasts the EU for what it is doing to Ireland.
If nothing else, it's a helluva speech.
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On November 29 2010 01:15 TALegion wrote:
One thing that always confused me is how people determine how much a currency is worth.
There's no formula, there's no method. Something is only worth how much we say it is.
"Everything is worth what its purchaser will pay for it" - Publilius Syrus
I have little idea myself, though about Ireland crashing and burning... Our current Chancellor once remarked a few years ago how brilliant ireland was doing economically, and how we (The UK) could learn alot from their policies... *sigh*
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Funny how this guy blames the EU for the mess in Ireland... he should blame the Irish government and Irish people who have voted for them.
The EU often seems useless but it is always makes a good scapegoat. It's all the EU's fault !
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On December 04 2010 07:42 Boblion wrote:
Funny how this guy blames the EU for the mess in Ireland... he should blame the Irish government and Irish people who have voted for them.
The EU often seems useless but it is always makes a good scapegoat. It's all the EU's fault !
I'm not sure that he's blaming the EU for the present mess that Ireland is in so much as he is chastizing the EU for disrupting Ireland's democracy by conditioning Ireland's ability to hold elections upon its enactment of an "acceptable" budget.
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On December 04 2010 06:56 xDaunt wrote:I'm sure that a lot of you have seen this already, but I'd like to know what Europeans think about it. For those that don't know, this is a speech by the British representative at the EU Parliament where he blasts the EU for what it is doing to Ireland. If nothing else, it's a helluva speech.
What do I think of it? It is a lying, overdramatizing separatist nationalist, appealing to little educated people without vision or farsight.
He and his party are known to be EU sceptics, so his remarks have no meaning for me at all.
People should work together, not against one another. Most of the EU sceptics try to convince people that their country would be better off without the others, which is bullshit, of course (it might be better of in the short run on some aspects in some cases, but certainly not in the long run if it is neighbour to impoverished, unstable or otherwise broken nations).
I am subscribed to RT among other things and their channel has a history of publishing clips playing into Russia's hands by trying to weaken the EU. :/
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EPT
