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On November 04 2015 06:45 nighcol wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2015 05:06 Plansix wrote:On November 04 2015 04:59 nighcol wrote:
Somewhat meaningless to offer anecdotes or say that some people on some site keep following even while they take a break from playing. The point is that there's some evidence for this being a widespread phenomenon in SC2. Obviously there will always be some people who do that for any game. Except that is where the majority of the 'evidence' that SC2 viewers don't play the game comes from. There are not a lot of people out there collecting publicly available data on the subject. Unfortunately I don't have time to dig right now but I'm pretty sure there was more than just anecdotes on this from some people, referring to the tournament viewership vs. active player numbers. IIRC SC2 came up as having a much higher ratio than any other game. Personal stories supporting that are nice and all but this is what I'm mostly referring to.
If we are talking about active players, Dota 2 has all time high of 1,262,612 as of 25 minutes ago and 20 million people watched the 2014 international. But then again, Valve claims 7.86 million play dota actively last year too.
http://venturebeat.com/2014/05/05/dota-2-grows-larger-than-world-of-warcraft-but-league-of-legends-still-crushes-both/
http://www.polygon.com/2014/7/29/5949773/dota-2-the-international-tournament-20-million-viewers
So just because you have not heard it doesn't mean it isn't true or you couldn't figure it out just by doing a 1 minute google search.
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On November 04 2015 06:54 Dingodile wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2015 06:06 Gorsameth wrote:
To think JP(or anyone else) is afraid of being critical because of consequences from Blizzard is hilariously dumb. Cant speak about Overwatch but I think this is the case in sc2, including players. If they have to complain, they use twitter in a very unclear/indirect message or they say nothing. I think nobody can say something bad/critical directly to Blizzard (even behind closed doors). edit: Idra got 2 days ladder ban because of "DKim is terrible" or something like that on stream.
No, he got banned for telling/wishing that people would rape DKim with a tire iron.
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You need to compare those ratios for it to mean anything and you didn't "figure it out" if you don't do the rest of the work...
I wholeaheartedly support you if you decide to do that by the way, whatever the result...
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On November 04 2015 06:58 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2015 06:10 -NegativeZero- wrote:
i like how the game's just barely in closed beta and everyone is already going full retard over "esports". give it time, the game is more important as an actual game. I know right? It's ridiculous. Instead of talking about the game, most of us are talking about esports potential, as if we are blizzard senior management instead of simply players.
What does being Blizzard senior management have to do with the value of players talking about a game's competitive potential? Why do you have a problem with what people feel like talking about?
In fact, since most people are watching the game and not playing it, it makes a lot of sense to talk about what makes the game entertaining to watch and how Blizzard might improve on it.
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On November 04 2015 07:07 hariooo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2015 06:58 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On November 04 2015 06:10 -NegativeZero- wrote:
i like how the game's just barely in closed beta and everyone is already going full retard over "esports". give it time, the game is more important as an actual game. I know right? It's ridiculous. Instead of talking about the game, most of us are talking about esports potential, as if we are blizzard senior management instead of simply players. What does being Blizzard senior management have to do with the value of players talking about a game's competitive potential? Why do you have a problem with what people feel like talking about? In fact, since most people are watching the game and not playing it, it makes a lot of sense to talk about what makes the game entertaining to watch and how Blizzard might improve on it.
Its a valid discussion, but people get into the weeds of "Blizzard should add this feature to assure it has Esports potential, its a super easy add on" and the discussion derails into theory craft.
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Netherlands45349 Posts
I would rather have them make a game made for fun then for Esport but its all the rage these days because its a great marketing tool.
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i just hope it will be better than hots and doesnt get boring after 2 weeks
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On November 04 2015 07:00 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2015 06:45 nighcol wrote:On November 04 2015 05:06 Plansix wrote:On November 04 2015 04:59 nighcol wrote:
Somewhat meaningless to offer anecdotes or say that some people on some site keep following even while they take a break from playing. The point is that there's some evidence for this being a widespread phenomenon in SC2. Obviously there will always be some people who do that for any game. Except that is where the majority of the 'evidence' that SC2 viewers don't play the game comes from. There are not a lot of people out there collecting publicly available data on the subject. Unfortunately I don't have time to dig right now but I'm pretty sure there was more than just anecdotes on this from some people, referring to the tournament viewership vs. active player numbers. IIRC SC2 came up as having a much higher ratio than any other game. Personal stories supporting that are nice and all but this is what I'm mostly referring to. If we are talking about active players, Dota 2 has all time high of 1,262,612 as of 25 minutes ago and 20 million people watched the 2014 international. But then again, Valve claims 7.86 million play dota actively last year too. http://venturebeat.com/2014/05/05/dota-2-grows-larger-than-world-of-warcraft-but-league-of-legends-still-crushes-both/http://www.polygon.com/2014/7/29/5949773/dota-2-the-international-tournament-20-million-viewersSo just because you have not heard it doesn't mean it isn't true or you couldn't figure it out just by doing a 1 minute google search.
Not sure what you're trying to do here but Dota 2 had ~11 million unique players last month and i think that only includes players through steam so no korea and china.
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On November 04 2015 07:24 Daray wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2015 07:00 Plansix wrote:On November 04 2015 06:45 nighcol wrote:On November 04 2015 05:06 Plansix wrote:On November 04 2015 04:59 nighcol wrote:
Somewhat meaningless to offer anecdotes or say that some people on some site keep following even while they take a break from playing. The point is that there's some evidence for this being a widespread phenomenon in SC2. Obviously there will always be some people who do that for any game. Except that is where the majority of the 'evidence' that SC2 viewers don't play the game comes from. There are not a lot of people out there collecting publicly available data on the subject. Unfortunately I don't have time to dig right now but I'm pretty sure there was more than just anecdotes on this from some people, referring to the tournament viewership vs. active player numbers. IIRC SC2 came up as having a much higher ratio than any other game. Personal stories supporting that are nice and all but this is what I'm mostly referring to. If we are talking about active players, Dota 2 has all time high of 1,262,612 as of 25 minutes ago and 20 million people watched the 2014 international. But then again, Valve claims 7.86 million play dota actively last year too. http://venturebeat.com/2014/05/05/dota-2-grows-larger-than-world-of-warcraft-but-league-of-legends-still-crushes-both/http://www.polygon.com/2014/7/29/5949773/dota-2-the-international-tournament-20-million-viewersSo just because you have not heard it doesn't mean it isn't true or you couldn't figure it out just by doing a 1 minute google search. Not sure what you're trying to do here but Dota 2 had ~11 million unique players last month and i think that only includes players through steam so no korea and china.
I could only find last years stats in article form. 11 million sounds about right for the current player base. I was just pointing out that SC2 isn't the only game where the number of viewers is larger than the active or unique player base.
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On November 04 2015 07:29 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2015 07:24 Daray wrote:On November 04 2015 07:00 Plansix wrote:On November 04 2015 06:45 nighcol wrote:On November 04 2015 05:06 Plansix wrote:On November 04 2015 04:59 nighcol wrote:
Somewhat meaningless to offer anecdotes or say that some people on some site keep following even while they take a break from playing. The point is that there's some evidence for this being a widespread phenomenon in SC2. Obviously there will always be some people who do that for any game. Except that is where the majority of the 'evidence' that SC2 viewers don't play the game comes from. There are not a lot of people out there collecting publicly available data on the subject. Unfortunately I don't have time to dig right now but I'm pretty sure there was more than just anecdotes on this from some people, referring to the tournament viewership vs. active player numbers. IIRC SC2 came up as having a much higher ratio than any other game. Personal stories supporting that are nice and all but this is what I'm mostly referring to. If we are talking about active players, Dota 2 has all time high of 1,262,612 as of 25 minutes ago and 20 million people watched the 2014 international. But then again, Valve claims 7.86 million play dota actively last year too. http://venturebeat.com/2014/05/05/dota-2-grows-larger-than-world-of-warcraft-but-league-of-legends-still-crushes-both/http://www.polygon.com/2014/7/29/5949773/dota-2-the-international-tournament-20-million-viewersSo just because you have not heard it doesn't mean it isn't true or you couldn't figure it out just by doing a 1 minute google search. Not sure what you're trying to do here but Dota 2 had ~11 million unique players last month and i think that only includes players through steam so no korea and china. I could only find last years stats in article form. 11 million sounds about right for the current player base. I was just pointing out that SC2 isn't the only game where the number of viewers is larger than the active or unique player base.
I've yet to see a convincing source for that 20 million number and people tuning in to watch a once year tournament with 10+ million prize pool is expected. The numbers for the other big tournaments are nowhere near that.
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On November 04 2015 07:38 Daray wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2015 07:29 Plansix wrote:On November 04 2015 07:24 Daray wrote:On November 04 2015 07:00 Plansix wrote:On November 04 2015 06:45 nighcol wrote:On November 04 2015 05:06 Plansix wrote:On November 04 2015 04:59 nighcol wrote:
Somewhat meaningless to offer anecdotes or say that some people on some site keep following even while they take a break from playing. The point is that there's some evidence for this being a widespread phenomenon in SC2. Obviously there will always be some people who do that for any game. Except that is where the majority of the 'evidence' that SC2 viewers don't play the game comes from. There are not a lot of people out there collecting publicly available data on the subject. Unfortunately I don't have time to dig right now but I'm pretty sure there was more than just anecdotes on this from some people, referring to the tournament viewership vs. active player numbers. IIRC SC2 came up as having a much higher ratio than any other game. Personal stories supporting that are nice and all but this is what I'm mostly referring to. If we are talking about active players, Dota 2 has all time high of 1,262,612 as of 25 minutes ago and 20 million people watched the 2014 international. But then again, Valve claims 7.86 million play dota actively last year too. http://venturebeat.com/2014/05/05/dota-2-grows-larger-than-world-of-warcraft-but-league-of-legends-still-crushes-both/http://www.polygon.com/2014/7/29/5949773/dota-2-the-international-tournament-20-million-viewersSo just because you have not heard it doesn't mean it isn't true or you couldn't figure it out just by doing a 1 minute google search. Not sure what you're trying to do here but Dota 2 had ~11 million unique players last month and i think that only includes players through steam so no korea and china. I could only find last years stats in article form. 11 million sounds about right for the current player base. I was just pointing out that SC2 isn't the only game where the number of viewers is larger than the active or unique player base. I've yet to see a convincing source for that 20 million number and people tuning in to watch a once year tournament with 10+ million prize pool is expected. The numbers for the other big tournaments are nowhere near that.
Valve provides the number most years. And this discussion boils down to a lot of people cherry picking numbers to prove their point. People don’t form a consensus of what number we are comparing. Unique users? Currently active players? Total viewers for the biggest event of the year? Total viewers for some random nightly stream?
And the poster I was responding didn’t provide any information or data either. He simple claimed someone else had done is previously and therefore it was fact, while making some snotty comment about anecdotal evidence.
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On November 04 2015 06:54 Dingodile wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2015 06:06 Gorsameth wrote:
To think JP(or anyone else) is afraid of being critical because of consequences from Blizzard is hilariously dumb. Cant speak about Overwatch but I think this is the case in sc2, including players. If they have to complain, they use twitter in a very unclear/indirect message or they say nothing. I think nobody can say something bad/critical directly to Blizzard (even behind closed doors). edit: Idra got 2 days ladder ban because of "DKim is terrible" or something like that on stream.
That's a myth. He got it because he was reported for harassment because he's Idra and he can't resist shit talking at every possible opportunity.
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On November 04 2015 06:45 nighcol wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2015 05:06 Plansix wrote:On November 04 2015 04:59 nighcol wrote:
Somewhat meaningless to offer anecdotes or say that some people on some site keep following even while they take a break from playing. The point is that there's some evidence for this being a widespread phenomenon in SC2. Obviously there will always be some people who do that for any game. Except that is where the majority of the 'evidence' that SC2 viewers don't play the game comes from. There are not a lot of people out there collecting publicly available data on the subject. Unfortunately I don't have time to dig right now but I'm pretty sure there was more than just anecdotes on this from some people, referring to the tournament viewership vs. active player numbers. IIRC SC2 came up as having a much higher ratio than any other game. Personal stories supporting that are nice and all but this is what I'm mostly referring to.
Well we have no real data to be 100% sure, but we can roughly get a sense of it by looking at some data.
According to Nios.kr. 400k people have played ranked (roughly incl teamgames) this season.
Let's assume that corresponds to roughly 300K active players per month. League of Legends has 90M unique players per month (source: https://www.superdataresearch.com/blog/can-blizzards-storm-tackle-a-saturating-moba-market/)
Hence - given those assumptions - LOL has 300 times more "active" players than Sc2. During the finals last worlds it generated a global concurrent viewership (including chinese viewbots) of 8M at the same time. So if sc2 can get more than 24K viewerrs at Blizzcon (including the Korean stream), Sc2 should have a higher player/viewer-base.
Anyway, I don't like looking at the data for the biggest tournament of the year to asses esport succes. I think its more important to look at mid-sized tournaments as that gives a better indication of regular esport-viewers. For the "event of the year" you will often get a lot of people who normally don't watch the game, which skews ratings.
I also think its better to look at Twitch data for all games since its more reliable and only assess the western playerbase to Twitch viewers (if possible). I will probably attempt to do that at one point in time.
@ Sc2 viewership
When you have an active playerbase of just a couple of hundred thousands, getting 20-40K Twitch viewers to a tournament is signficantly higher than the industry average.
During its peak in 2011 it would regularly get 100k+ viewers to live tournaments, which also is very impressive for a game that only sold 7-8M copies.
The unique thing about Sc2 - relative to MOBA's - is how easy it is to identify skill. However, eventually as everyone got better at the game and the meta stabilized, it also became harder and harder to seperate players by playstyles. Most progames today have roughly similar skillset and use close to same buillds.
When "analysts" speak about players as being more strategic or better at macro, the differences are marginal (compared to where it was the first 1-1½ year of release). Overall that makes for a much less exciting viewing experience. And that is part of the reason for the decline in viewership (the major contributor is ofc the declining playerbase).
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On November 04 2015 08:04 Hider wrote:
The unique thing about Sc2 - relative to MOBA's - is how easy it is to identify skill. However, eventually as everyone got better at the game and the meta stabilized, it also became harder and harder to seperate players by playstyles. Most progames today have roughly similar skillset and use close to same buillds.
Going to nitpick on the skill difference. It is very easy to tell if somebody is much better or not in a dota clone game. Give them the same hero, set them 1v1 and the much better player will win. Regardless of hero or normal role.
The problem comes when players are near each others level, then it creates the same problem as in SC2 where you compare how good a T player is to a P player. To really test it considering game and map balance one person has to off race. Which means any comparison only works on the same role or very high skill differences.
In Dota 2 there are many people that stand out in their roles and are considered better than other professional players.
If you want to take it in a ranking perspective I can tell in ~30 seconds of laning if somebody is 1000 mmr below me in Dota. (In SC2 it is roughly the same, from start of interaction you can tell it very fast.) Average of the bell curve in Dota is 3k, top player is 8k (to give some perspective). When close it isn't possible to tell in one game, it is the consistency of the tiny things that shows it.
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It is very easy to tell if somebody is much better or not in a dota clone game. Give them the same hero, set them 1v1 and the much better player will win.
In Dota 2 there are many people that stand out in their roles and are considered better than other professional players.
I would make this type of question: When you watch a DOTA game, do you regularly get super impressed by their skills? Or do you watch it more because you are interested in seeing the strategy or following the favourite teams? Or maybe just wanting to stay "updated"?
There is also a difference between "knowing" that a player is much better than another player and being able to see it regularly for yourself when you watch the game.
One of the reasons CS:GO is succesful is because it has a high ratio of "impressive skills showed"-to-time spent watching.
The problem comes when players are near each others level, then it creates the same problem as in SC2 where you compare how good a T player is to a P player. To really test it considering game and map balance one person has to off race.
I don't agree with off-race. I think if the race is properly designed and rewards micro in an in interesting way, then you can identify skill regardless of matchup.
If you want to take it in a ranking perspective I can tell in ~30 seconds of laning if somebody is 1000 mmr below me in Dota.
I am only talking about how the game is at a pro level. If the difference between the best player in the world and the 20th-50th best player in the world easy to identify?
That was the case in Starcraft anno 2011 (at least too a large extent).
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There are plenty of players in dota that are feared in this specific role. EG Sumail is known for winning disadvantaged match ups in mid. Seeing the skill different is easy in dota.
On November 04 2015 08:31 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +It is very easy to tell if somebody is much better or not in a dota clone game. Give them the same hero, set them 1v1 and the much better player will win. The question is this: When you watch a DOTA game, do you regularly get super impressed by their skills? I think that's what happens in CS:GO atm., and it's part of the reason its succesful (I also think the whole betting-thing is helping too).
Yes, you can see it in almost any player in all roles. Even pulling creep agro is a skill that most players are better at than others.
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Let's be fair, a significant portion of the dota community thinks that EternalEnvy is a bad player, although that misconception is more because the strategy and tactical decisions made by professional teams are beyond them, so flashy plays are what stand out (for good or bad)
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I got in 
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Congratulations! Wish i had it too.
I will take the opportunity to ask the thread to be on topic, 2 pages off topic is too much.
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EPT
