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[wow] Warlords of Draenor - Page 499

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daemir
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland8662 Posts
May 15 2015 15:12 GMT
#9961
https://wowtoken.info/

look at the EU graph. Point me the moment when all bots went flat line :D
Cyro
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United Kingdom20327 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-05-15 15:36:22
May 15 2015 15:34 GMT
#9962
On May 16 2015 00:12 daemir wrote:
https://wowtoken.info/

look at the EU graph. Point me the moment when all bots went flat line :D



LOL

right before the 41,003g peak, if the ban wave hit everyone at the same time
"oh my god my overclock... I got a single WHEA error on the 23rd hour, 9 minutes" -Belial88
Seuss
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States10536 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-05-15 15:43:30
May 15 2015 15:39 GMT
#9963
Bots were being used to buy/sell WoW Tokens? o.O

Actually that doesn't gel. Blizzard posted this after the bans went out, but that post (which occurred at noon PDT on the 13th) came before any noticeable changes occured in how the Token prices fluctuate.

They probably just changed their algorithms again, and it happened to roughly coincide with banning bots.
"I am not able to carry all this people alone, for they are too heavy for me." -Moses (Numbers 11:14)
daemir
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland8662 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-05-15 16:07:15
May 15 2015 16:04 GMT
#9964
No, but they influenced the gold economy greatly. The graph is starting to recover now, but it took a day or 2 :p Not to mention the fear effect of "oh shit will I get banned?" and people holding off trading tokens either way.
Cyro
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United Kingdom20327 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-05-15 17:27:25
May 15 2015 16:39 GMT
#9965
They probably just changed their algorithms again, and it happened to roughly coincide with banning bots.


It coincides pretty exactly though. It's either at literally at the same time (i know exactly when the guy in our raid was banned, i have a video recording with clocks on it) or 1 hour later, depending on time zones

Look at https://wowtoken.info/ eu.

The price change immediately dropped. It peaked at 41,003g and then acted very weirdly afterwards. That's exactly when the bans went out, down to the minute i think (might be an hour off because time zones)
"oh my god my overclock... I got a single WHEA error on the 23rd hour, 9 minutes" -Belial88
Baatun88
Profile Joined May 2015
14 Posts
May 15 2015 17:35 GMT
#9966
I don't get why Bots should have an effect of Tokens. People get their Gold through the Garrison and doing Cata-Raids mostly. I only log-in two times a day and make at least 50k-100k Gold per Week only from Garrisons (with six Level100s)
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22310 Posts
May 15 2015 17:59 GMT
#9967
On May 16 2015 02:35 Baatun88 wrote:
I don't get why Bots should have an effect of Tokens. People get their Gold through the Garrison and doing Cata-Raids mostly. I only log-in two times a day and make at least 50k-100k Gold per Week only from Garrisons (with six Level100s)

a large part of those banned were using a bot to automate garrison tasks.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Baatun88
Profile Joined May 2015
14 Posts
May 15 2015 18:04 GMT
#9968
On May 16 2015 02:59 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 16 2015 02:35 Baatun88 wrote:
I don't get why Bots should have an effect of Tokens. People get their Gold through the Garrison and doing Cata-Raids mostly. I only log-in two times a day and make at least 50k-100k Gold per Week only from Garrisons (with six Level100s)

a large part of those banned were using a bot to automate garrison tasks.


Yeah and how does that affect Tokens? People who botted for Gold are definitly no the one selling Tokens to get Gold so demand is getting down...
Seuss
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States10536 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-05-15 18:20:40
May 15 2015 18:17 GMT
#9969
On May 16 2015 01:04 daemir wrote:
No, but they influenced the gold economy greatly. The graph is starting to recover now, but it took a day or 2 :p Not to mention the fear effect of "oh shit will I get banned?" and people holding off trading tokens either way.


The graph actually isn't recovering, the peaks and troughs still have significantly less amplitude than before. If, over the course of the next week, things return to how they were before I'll accept this argument, but I think they won't.

On May 16 2015 01:39 Cyro wrote:
Show nested quote +
They probably just changed their algorithms again, and it happened to roughly coincide with banning bots.


It coincides pretty exactly though. It's either at literally at the same time (i know exactly when the guy in our raid was banned, i have a video recording with clocks on it) or 1 hour later, depending on time zones

Look at https://wowtoken.info/ eu.

The price change immediately dropped. It peaked at 41,003g and then acted very weirdly afterwards. That's exactly when the bans went out, down to the minute i think (might be an hour off because time zones)


It doesn't seem all that exact to me. Reddit reported the ban wave less than an hour after the post I linked, which is still hours before the token price peaked on EU. The correlation isn't as precise as you suggest.

Moreover, I think the economic connection between the bots and Token prices is weak. Consider:
  • 100k is roughly 1.5% of the game's population. Even if you restrict it to NA and EU it's still only 2.5%.
  • Not all of the banned accounts would have bought tokens with gold.
  • Subscription renewal dates are likely spread out over the 30 day month.
  • Some players who bought tokens in bulk will not be an ongoing presence in the market.


So the lost Token demand from these accounts would be, on any given day, minimal at most.

Theoretically the bans might have dramatically increased supply as banned players created new accounts or resubbed old ones, buying gold in order to recover more quickly. However, in that case supply should be abnormally high resulting in a sharp drop and/or sustained low Token prices. That's not what happened either.

I don't deny that the banned accounts probably had a lot of gold and contributed to inflation, but Tokens are a very special case and I think it's highly unlikely that the banned accounts were more than a blip in the fluctuations.
"I am not able to carry all this people alone, for they are too heavy for me." -Moses (Numbers 11:14)
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22310 Posts
May 15 2015 18:23 GMT
#9970
It is indeed very much possible that the change is mere coincidence and that Blizzard simply changed the formula behind the scenes at roughly the same time with no connection.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Cyro
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United Kingdom20327 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-05-15 18:26:34
May 15 2015 18:25 GMT
#9971
It doesn't seem all that exact to me. Reddit reported the ban wave less than an hour after the post I linked, which is still hours before the token price peaked on EU. The correlation isn't as precise as you suggest.


Our player got banned+dc'd at 9:41pm on the clock. I'm not sure if it was an hour before due to timezones or not, but it looks like either the bot ban had a weird effect on the tokens or they did something with the code at pretty much exactly the same time.

That's also when all of the reddit threads started. I went to WoW reddit new section after the pull and there was a bunch of posts 2-3 minutes old about a ban wave
"oh my god my overclock... I got a single WHEA error on the 23rd hour, 9 minutes" -Belial88
Seuss
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States10536 Posts
May 15 2015 18:43 GMT
#9972
The timing is close, but when I sit down and think about the economics of the problem it just doesn't pan out. There isn't a clear connection/path whereby banned accounts are the sole or primary cause of the change in pattern for Token prices.
"I am not able to carry all this people alone, for they are too heavy for me." -Moses (Numbers 11:14)
Cyro
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United Kingdom20327 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-05-15 22:40:57
May 15 2015 22:33 GMT
#9973
It felt silly to run the same content over and over even as your character got stronger, which is why the dungeon rewards were removed


I'm entering my fourth difficulty of BRF and highmaul right now and i'l have to clear BRF for like, 12 weeks in a row minimum just to be competitive (gearing up at first, then STARTING and finishing the brf legendary ring step)

terrible reason to destroy 5 mans IMO
"oh my god my overclock... I got a single WHEA error on the 23rd hour, 9 minutes" -Belial88
daemir
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland8662 Posts
May 15 2015 22:44 GMT
#9974
Am I the only one who likes to run 5mans just for the joy of running 5mans? And they're a cool place to experiment on builds and rotations.
Mysticesper
Profile Joined January 2011
United States1183 Posts
May 15 2015 22:54 GMT
#9975
I love 5 mans. I totally enjoy just running dungeons to level 15-90.
Cyro
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United Kingdom20327 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-05-15 23:36:17
May 15 2015 23:34 GMT
#9976
I hate the 15-90 experience, it's way too mindless. TBC or cata heroics as well as WOD CM's was a lot of fun for me. I'd even like a dungeon experience like raid experience - where only 10% of players beat it on X difficulty during that content patch.

It's WoW, so you can drastically overgear it and way more than that would finish it later in the expansion.

My max crit when i hit level 100 was ~60k. Now it's ~252k? With the same ability. Chimaera Shot, against one target. We're still in the first tier, so i don't doubt their ability to make a dungeon that only 10% of people can clear, but like half of the game easily runs it 6-12 months later.

Am I the only one who likes to run 5mans just for the joy of running 5mans? And they're a cool place to experiment on builds and rotations.


I do too, but it's very very hard to find a CM group of people who won't leave after 1-2 wipes these days (or people who want to practice for silver-gold medal) and heroic 5 man has become too easy, it's just a joke for i690 people. I'l be doing the mythics probably more than the mandatory twice a week (they're supposed to have added mechanics, but i suspect they'll still be too easy)
"oh my god my overclock... I got a single WHEA error on the 23rd hour, 9 minutes" -Belial88
Mysticesper
Profile Joined January 2011
United States1183 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-05-16 00:06:17
May 15 2015 23:59 GMT
#9977
The scaling is definitely out of control. It's nice in one way: farm content really does become farm content much quicker -> speeding up progression. But it does make things obsolete much faster.

but yeah, I miss TBC/wrath heroics where they actually required some level of thinking and had a level of challenge to them. (never played cata or panda, so I can't comment). Especially some of the hard modes like 45m shattered halls for attunement purposes (don't miss attunements though).


Yeah 15-90 is pretty mindless, but I actually like it for that reason. It's a break from everything else and mindless dungeon spamming is actually kind of fun to me, especially since I only leveled healers for instant queues. When you have an aggressive tank, healing is pretty fun.
Cyro
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United Kingdom20327 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-05-16 00:33:46
May 16 2015 00:30 GMT
#9978
Cata launch HC's were harder than wrath hc's (even at appropriate gear levels) in general, but the harder stuff got nerfed quite quickly IIRC

heal is more like 3-4 min queue atm, i'm leveling with one. It's just not that fun IMO. Until i got arcane explosion, i did literally 100% of my damage with arcane blast because it was impossible to go OOM and it out-damages everything else, making fire and frost specs look silly.
"oh my god my overclock... I got a single WHEA error on the 23rd hour, 9 minutes" -Belial88
deth2munkies
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4051 Posts
May 16 2015 00:33 GMT
#9979
On May 16 2015 09:30 Cyro wrote:
Cata launch HC's were harder than wrath hc's (even at appropriate gear levels) in general, but the harder stuff got nerfed quite quickly IIRC

heal is more like 3-4 min queue atm, i'm leveling with one. It's just not that fun IMO - i'm doing half the damage in every dungeon and the tank is almost all of the other half. For boss killing or questing, there's also only one button to press as a level 32 mage - arcane blast. Everything else does less damage and it's very difficult to go OOM. There's pretty wild spec imbalance, probably the wildest it's ever been at low levels.


Yeah, I mean prot paladins can solo all the instances before lvl 60 pretty easily. Dungeoning at low levels is a joke.
Cyro
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United Kingdom20327 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-05-16 00:37:32
May 16 2015 00:34 GMT
#9980
On May 16 2015 09:33 deth2munkies wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 16 2015 09:30 Cyro wrote:
Cata launch HC's were harder than wrath hc's (even at appropriate gear levels) in general, but the harder stuff got nerfed quite quickly IIRC

heal is more like 3-4 min queue atm, i'm leveling with one. It's just not that fun IMO - i'm doing half the damage in every dungeon and the tank is almost all of the other half. For boss killing or questing, there's also only one button to press as a level 32 mage - arcane blast. Everything else does less damage and it's very difficult to go OOM. There's pretty wild spec imbalance, probably the wildest it's ever been at low levels.


Yeah, I mean prot paladins can solo all the instances before lvl 60 pretty easily. Dungeoning at low levels is a joke.


BM hunters can easily solo instances 1-60. Protadins can probably do it while drunk.

I got level 10-15 with this friend by walking into deadmines and 2-manning it. Red level elites and bosses? no problem

Friend said it would be cool if we could just queue 2-man for dungeons and get the bonus exp from finishing it (it gives you like, most of a level still just from killing the last boss) but you can't do that, need to queue lfd and wait for some new/lazy players to carry through
"oh my god my overclock... I got a single WHEA error on the 23rd hour, 9 minutes" -Belial88
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