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On May 22 2013 07:08 cLutZ wrote:
I know Norris Cole is nothing like Chris Paul. Cole is like the 30th best PG in the league (if even that). The point is you would rather have Cole + the #1 Wing or + #1 Big than have CP3 + #30 of those. In a salary cap league, that is how you have to think.
Also, who are the elite PG defenders? There are some decent on-ball PG defenders, but none really are the kind of player that affects all aspects of the game on the defensive end like a Lebron, Howard, Gasol, KG, etc.
The problem is teams can't think like that because resources are finite and finding Norris Cole requires luck. There is only 1 Lebron and 1 Wade. The Clippers don't have them so they construct their team in a different way. You're making a super simple example out of something that is complex without regards to what a #1 PG brings you. If you team Chris Paul up with the #1 wing and the #30 big then why can't he have the same impact? His offense by itself is short only to Lebron so you're already in the same ballpark paying them both the max. Who's to say giving him a superstar wing with the max - like Durant and just a defensive powerhouse for cheap doesn't get the job done?
As an aside realize that the Clippers, not Miami, were at something insane like ~10 SRS when they got Chris Paul back after the losing streak early in the year. They were playing near the 72-10 Chicago Bulls level for a month.
When you can get that level of offense from a hodge podge team from the production of primarily 1 player you are paying that guy the max.
Conley, Rondo, Bledsoe, CP3, are the tops. The you've got guys like Hill looking great so far, Chalmers even though he fell of f a bit, Lowry and the up and coming monster John Wall. I'm basing all this off memory because I can't find current RAPM stats for defense right now and would rather use those,
ETA: These are last year's ratings - http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2012.html
I usually want a couple of sources for APM comparisons and I'd like to see this year's but I guess they aren't out yet. I'd go find the opp FG% and tov% against stats too if you want that.
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Duh CP3 is a max guy, that is only tangentially relevant to the discussion. Its about predicting which types of teams are most likely to be true contenders. Its basic biology, as you get taller you are getting further into the tail end of the normal distribution of height, so there is simply going to be a smaller pool of people. The likelihood of finding an athletic guy who is 6'1'' is so much higher than finding one that is 6'8''. DO you think Aaron Grey is actually good at this sport?
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On May 22 2013 07:36 cLutZ wrote:
Duh CP3 is a max guy, that is only tangentially relevant to the discussion. Its about predicting which types of teams are most likely to be true contenders. Its basic biology, as you get taller you are getting further into the tail end of the normal distribution of height, so there is simply going to be a smaller pool of people. The likelihood of finding an athletic guy who is 6'1'' is so much higher than finding one that is 6'8''. DO you think Aaron Grey is actually good at this sport?
What does finding an athletic guy at 6'8 vs finding one at 6'1 have to do with anything? Height is irrelevant here. You want skill set. You are thinking of how basketball teams are constructed in the wrong way, It is not about finding replaceable point guards for CP3 at a fraction of the price, It is about finding a replaceable skillset for Chris Paul at a fraction of the price. You don't just throw teams together by position without looking at what you are getting or giving up in return. Just show me based on production and salary how you can replace Chris Paul and whoever with Norris Cole and superstar wings for the salary. You've been making this claim for years but never offer up any in depth proof beyond useless rhetoric. For once, do some actual research if you want to be taken seriously.
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Chris Paul: Finally the nightmare is over.
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On May 22 2013 07:15 Ace wrote:Actually the Suns weren't as bad defensively as popular opinion suggests. ( I know, when I found out I did a double take too). They had some great wing defenders in Joe Johnson and Shawn Marion, and Nash's defensive impact wasn't as bad as we think. However that being said defense isn't the biggest reason they got killed in the playoffs. We could go back to those years and do in depth analysis. This is starting to get into the same vein of "why couldn't Kevin Garnett lead teams to a title if he was so good?" and the answers are actually fairly simple but eye-opening about how much impact a superstar really has. Show nested quote +
I say Magic but only in the last years of Kareem, when Kareem was clearly not the best player anymore but Magic was. (side-note: I think Kareem is the #2 best player ever after Jordan in modern-era) I also said this because he actually subbed in for Kareem and his sprained ankle in the Finals example I used.
Which championship? Kareem was definitely the guy when Magic first showed up. Remember Magic made a big stink about not coming to the NBA if he didn't get to play with KAJ. Show nested quote +
Parker won the Finals MVP but was he really the best player on their team? Even if it isn't Duncan (which it was imo), don't forget Ginobli being the other great perimeter player.
In 2006, Wade was a beast but Shaq was still in his prime (last year arguably) and they would not have gotten past Detroit without him. But we all know wade isn't a PG, that's a big stretch to fit the argument =P
Parker was. His finals were pretty amazing too. Shaq in 2006 was no longer in his prime and was a shell. Miami wouldn't have beaten Detroit without Shaq but they wouldn't have even been there without Wade. There are many arguments for Wade deserving the MVP that year but to make it short Miami's offense collapsed to something like 22 points worse/per 100 possessions without him. That is an obscene dropoff. Around this time we also realized that while Shaq helped Wade, it wasn't as much of a boost we thought because Wade ran the offense at superstar levels just fine with Shaq off the court. And yes, Wade was playing Point Guard in the playoffs 
That's fine about the Suns (would love to hear more on it later) but they still didn't win a championship which is all I actually said. And Garnett couldn't win a championship because where was his wing player (if i follow my previous logic)? And don't say Marbury or Latrell because I'll take that as a joke =P
But if you think Wade fits as a PG for what I am saying then I don't think we can come to an agreement eventually because how many other PG's are there that would compare to Wade as PG then? I don't see anyone currently or in previous history that can be compared to Wade playing PG during that stretch.
Don't forget Jason Williams and Gary Payton did play between 24 and 30 minutes each during those playoffs. I know Wade was main assists-leader and ball-handler but still. Why didn't he ever continue trying to play PG if it worked so well? I have to think that part of the reason it worked is because he got so much room because of Shaq.
As for Magic leading the team, I meant the 86-87 championship when Kareem was 39 years old (looked it up to be sure). They won again the next year but Worth was Finals MVP so trying to choose the best case, but 86-88 years pretty much.
And you really think Parker was the guy on the spurs that year :o? I mean him and Billups have the best arguments to debunk this theory but better than Duncan is just weird to say. But for me it was Ginobli that was so beastly those playoffs. Hitting 3s and FT's all-game every game.
edit:added quote at beg
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Parker deserved that MVP, but, really, the Spurs never had to get out of 3rd gear. There was no reason for Duncan to become involved.
I think the 06-07 Spurs might be the best of all the Spurs teams, too bad everyone sucked ass that year.
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I am not saying Parker didn't deserve MVP. James Worthy deserved it too when he got it but I can't say he was the guy on his team with Magic running the point and putting up insane stats.
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Tony Parker compares favorably to Wade. Williams and Peyton playing PG doesn't exclude Wade from doing so, especially as he was Miami's offense during that playoff run.
Either way it isn't solely about what position he is listed at, because he was drafted as a PG and has PG skills. Lebron also played PG his rookie year, and we know about the Durant disaster at SG. We also know Duncan has been playing Center for over 12 years but people refer to him as a Power Forward.
Why didn't he ever continue trying to play PG if it worked so well? I have to think that part of the reason it worked is because he got so much room because of Shaq.
He did. I think it's because defensively he is matched up against shooting guards that people buy the "SG" designation. But he was playing the PG role for Miami all throughout his career in Miami. If Miami says ok, Wade is no longer SG but now a PG - what changes? The offense would be the same. Shaq being there had little effect on Wade or Miami's offense. Even ignoring what we now currently know about Wade's future without Shaq, Miami did fine without Shaq on the court. Like I stated before (and I should really go digging for this stuff again), Wade was the Miami offense. Without him they were scoring like 85 points per 100 which is Charlotte Bobcats level. Shaq was already breaking down and not the dominant player he once was. That 2006 year the perception was Shaq was the best player on Miami even though to astute observers Wade was actually carrying the team. It just became obvious to everyone once the playoffs hit because public perception is slow like that. They assumed it was another Shaq and Kobe scenario.
As for Magic leading the team, I meant the 86-87 championship when Kareem was 39 years old (looked it up to be sure). They won again the next year but Worth was Finals MVP so trying to choose the best case, but 86-88 years pretty much.
Fair enough. Also note I think Magic was dominant too. But not because he happened to be a Point Guard - because he was Magic. He played Center for a small stretch and did very good because his skill set was that transcendent.
And you really think Parker was the guy on the spurs that year :o? I mean him and Billups have the best arguments to debunk this theory but better than Duncan is just weird to say. But for me it was Ginobli that was so beastly those playoffs. Hitting 3s and FT's all-game every game.
Oops hope I didn't come across that way. I meant to say he was their best player that playoffs, not the entire year. I mean it's not like Duncan doesn't have a case or could even be considered more valuable than Parker that run. It's just the case isn't as strong as people make it out to be because point guard led teams have done very well. These are the same people that argue you need a point guard and a big to win it all then turn around and diminish the impact of the PG.
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There is a guy named elgee that probably does give his SD. I can't find his blog right now so I'll have to look through realgm for the link. Try basketball-reference.
I don't have a favorite piece of data but I guess if I was going to try to prove production replacement I'd look at Team and individual ORTG and DRTG for RS and playoffs. Use basic boxscore sats just to get a ballpark estimate of production also. If you can find multiple sites, use RAPM to compare players on/off impact and if not just use the +/- from nba.com stats database.
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United States22883 Posts
On May 22 2013 01:42 MassHysteria wrote:
As for Chris Paul being overrated, it might just be because when the hell was the last time a PG-dominated team won the championship? We would have to go back to Magic Johnson
Why are you forgetting about Isiah? 
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Because he wasn't the clear cut best player on his team, just the face
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United States22883 Posts
Maybe not for the first championship, but for the second one he definitely was.
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Funny enough he IS the 1.0 version of Chris Paul. sort of.
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I think you need to go back and reread my original argument because you are bring up points I have no problem with/ agree with...
On May 22 2013 08:24 Ace wrote:
Tony Parker compares favorably to Wade. Williams and Peyton playing PG doesn't exclude Wade from doing so, especially as he was Miami's offense during that playoff run.
Either way it isn't solely about what position he is listed at, because he was drafted as a PG and has PG skills. Lebron also played PG his rookie year, and we know about the Durant disaster at SG. We also know Duncan has been playing Center for over 12 years but people refer to him as a Power Forward. When was the last time you saw Parker dunk like Wade was doing during those Flash early-days?
Show nested quote +
Why didn't he ever continue trying to play PG if it worked so well? I have to think that part of the reason it worked is because he got so much room because of Shaq.
He did. I think it's because defensively he is matched up against shooting guards that people buy the "SG" designation. But he was playing the PG role for Miami all throughout his career in Miami. If Miami says ok, Wade is no longer SG but now a PG - what changes? The offense would be the same. Shaq being there had little effect on Wade or Miami's offense. Even ignoring what we now currently know about Wade's future without Shaq, Miami did fine without Shaq on the court. Like I stated before (and I should really go digging for this stuff again), Wade was the Miami offense. Without him they were scoring like 85 points per 100 which is Charlotte Bobcats level. Shaq was already breaking down and not the dominant player he once was. That 2006 year the perception was Shaq was the best player on Miami even though to astute observers Wade was actually carrying the team. It just became obvious to everyone once the playoffs hit because public perception is slow like that. They assumed it was another Shaq and Kobe scenario.
Show nested quote +
As for Magic leading the team, I meant the 86-87 championship when Kareem was 39 years old (looked it up to be sure). They won again the next year but Worth was Finals MVP so trying to choose the best case, but 86-88 years pretty much.
Fair enough. Also note I think Magic was dominant too. But not because he happened to be a Point Guard - because he was Magic. He played Center for a small stretch and did very good because his skill set was that transcendent.
Show nested quote +
And you really think Parker was the guy on the spurs that year :o? I mean him and Billups have the best arguments to debunk this theory but better than Duncan is just weird to say. But for me it was Ginobli that was so beastly those playoffs. Hitting 3s and FT's all-game every game.
Oops hope I didn't come across that way. I meant to say he was their best player that playoffs, not the entire year. I mean it's not like Duncan doesn't have a case or could even be considered more valuable than Parker that run. It's just the case isn't as strong as people make it out to be because point guard led teams have done very well. These are the same people that argue you need a point guard and a big to win it all then turn around and diminish the impact of the PG.
IDK I still think Ginobli was so key in that run but all the big-3 have a good argument in their favor really.
What PG-led teams have done well in terms of championships? I mean I was just talking championships and we just went over that. I never said they can't do "very well" though, don't take me the wrong way. Just wanted to run that theory through.
And I don't know where the bolded came from.
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On May 22 2013 08:44 Jibba wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2013 01:42 MassHysteria wrote:
As for Chris Paul being overrated, it might just be because when the hell was the last time a PG-dominated team won the championship? We would have to go back to Magic Johnson Why are you forgetting about Isiah?
Snap, never even thought of that!!
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Only 10min until the lottery starts.
Going out on a limb and saying Sac. will get the 1st pick. Feeling it.
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I know you aren't fully disagreeing with me, I just like to go as far as possible with some of my explanations.
re: Parker and Wade. They have some similar traits in that neither tries to score from beyond the 3pt line and will do their best to get into the paint. Both shoot relatively high FG% also, except Wade is obviously a much better total offensive player. Both also are in the top of the league using screens to get around defenses.
I do want ask: what is a point guard in the traditional sense? Because I think we have different views on this. I think Wade fits the mold easily if we are asking him to run the offense and get his teammates easy baskets.
That bolded was just extra exposition based on some of the stuff I've seen on TL over the years, clutz being the most vocal since he always has a problem with PG led teams. Yet some of the guys listed at that position have been critical to championship success.
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So four quarters can't replace a dollar in the NBA?
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If you are ignoring risk, then maybe.
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EPT
