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On December 29 2011 20:52 Blondinbengt wrote:
I don't see how your Janitor vs Mauler breakdown makes much sense, Gustafsson is the better striker than Matyushenko by any metric and he has height on his side. To me, this fight is going to be about whether or not Matyushenko can get the fight to the ground, if he can then he will win and if he can't then he will lose.
I don';t know how you interpreted what I wrote but that's exactly what I wrote. Vlad will try to get this fight to the ground at ALL costs.. hence the reference to Fitch... that is, if Vlad gets the fight to the ground we risk two L'n'P fights back to back. Although, having said that, Fitch is going to have a hard time against Hendricks. I'm actually looking forward to a phenomenal wrestling match and, like I said in my post, Vlad is going to win with wrestling but I'm hoping for a Flash KO.
P.S. After re-reading what I wrote, I think I might have been a bit too "jovially subtle" and I can understand how you misunderstood me thinking Vlad is gonna get a KO standing. However, I agree with you. Vlad will take this to the ground quicker than an A380 after takeoff.
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On December 29 2011 20:19 Dr.Lettuce wrote:
OP I have to massively disagree with your breakdown on Brock. The guy does NOT set up his take downs with punches. Brocks takedowns are sloppy, he gets by on pure strength. He shoots for high doubles and usually just runs through them in to the cage/floor. I am not impressed with Brocks takedown technique considering the level he wrestled with at NCAA.
His TD on Cain was sloppy, he landed poorly and failed to base properly and tried to pass straight away - Cain popped straight back up. His shot on Carwin was against a badly gassed opponent - and even so.. that was a horrific shot. Brock is shooting high with his head in peoples chests... for anyone well versed in MMA this had advantages and disadvantages in terms of placement and how you land. Brock isn't doing this to avoid knees or guillotines, he's doing this because he can't set up his TD's with strikes effectively so he can't drop down and really power through his opponents unafraid of guillotines etc.
His TD on Couture wasn't a clean shot- it was like I said. Drove through him in to the cage and picked him up. (Bearing in mind the weight difference between those 2 on that night was the same as that between Couture and Penn... interesting) Additionally Couture stuffed the initial single or double I can't remember.
His fight ending TD against Mir was given to him by a jumping knee from the clinch. His first shot on Mir in their second fight in the first round was ok to be honest. Not great, but it resulted in a small scramble (iirc) but his top game sealed it. Plus Mirs wrestling has always been his weak point. All in all... I think Brock has the most overrated wrestling considering his credentials in all of MMA, at least the HW division.
He has not transitioned them well to MMA, his strength is carrying him alone in terms of his shot. That's not to say his top game isn't good. His top game is up there with Fitches and GSP.
Brock does not have the striking ability to flow in to TDs (for example Rashad/GSP) and I believe it's going to cost him this fight convincingly.
He doesn't set them up, he telegraphs them badly. But hey- it's worked for him so far. But please please please take out of your OP that Brock sets up his shots with punches. He doesn't and I keep seeing people saying this and honestly it's making me want to tear my hair out.
*Edit* Brock wants to set up his TD's with punches, but he can't. Yet.
Relax. I can understand your outrage but whether he accomplishes it or not that's what he tries. I can be biased and say "Brock goes in for the power double leg with no setup" but then I'd get Brock fanboys arguing with me. I completely agree with you although I was trying to be sensitive. His style is G'n'P. I have edited post with something that will please you.
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@ SoMuchBetter
Chonan by flying scissor heel hook. Failing that, he's screwed.
Fedor will win. Even against a 60%Fedor, Ishii is in for a hard fight.
Aoki to win as well. Not too familiar with the other fighters. I have to admit, like Dr. Lettuce I grew up watching Pride and K-1 (never got into Shooto). It's a shame UFC stole all the fighters I had any emotional connection to (first by acquiring Pride then by acquiring Strikeforce).
![[image loading]](http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GB8QgVlyIJg/Tv0RGMQ2_OI/AAAAAAAAG0k/wWySTf3bpxA/s1600/11.gif)
LOL AT ROGAN AHHAHAHAHAH
In before, "I looked into their eyes during the weigh-ins..."
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Canada5565 Posts
Thank you for making this thread! I will be watching tomorrow night with some friends 
ColdLava, sensei, your thoughts?
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The ring is going to crumble...
I think Lesnar will bullrush and finish Overeem on the ground
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gotta root for brock. hoping for a epic fight
On December 30 2011 12:23 MaZza[KIS] wrote:LOL AT ROGAN AHHAHAHAHAH In before, "I looked into their eyes during the weigh-ins..."
Lol, joe is hilarious
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Can't wait for this card, Diaz vs Cerrone should be absurd sick.
Pretyt pumped for Bock/Overeem too !
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I don't always bet on props, but when I do:
"Jon Fitch wins by 3 round decision" -130 (1.77).
Hell yes!
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On December 30 2011 12:00 MaZza[KIS] wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2011 20:19 Dr.Lettuce wrote:
OP I have to massively disagree with your breakdown on Brock. The guy does NOT set up his take downs with punches. Brocks takedowns are sloppy, he gets by on pure strength. He shoots for high doubles and usually just runs through them in to the cage/floor. I am not impressed with Brocks takedown technique considering the level he wrestled with at NCAA.
His TD on Cain was sloppy, he landed poorly and failed to base properly and tried to pass straight away - Cain popped straight back up. His shot on Carwin was against a badly gassed opponent - and even so.. that was a horrific shot. Brock is shooting high with his head in peoples chests... for anyone well versed in MMA this had advantages and disadvantages in terms of placement and how you land. Brock isn't doing this to avoid knees or guillotines, he's doing this because he can't set up his TD's with strikes effectively so he can't drop down and really power through his opponents unafraid of guillotines etc.
His TD on Couture wasn't a clean shot- it was like I said. Drove through him in to the cage and picked him up. (Bearing in mind the weight difference between those 2 on that night was the same as that between Couture and Penn... interesting) Additionally Couture stuffed the initial single or double I can't remember.
His fight ending TD against Mir was given to him by a jumping knee from the clinch. His first shot on Mir in their second fight in the first round was ok to be honest. Not great, but it resulted in a small scramble (iirc) but his top game sealed it. Plus Mirs wrestling has always been his weak point. All in all... I think Brock has the most overrated wrestling considering his credentials in all of MMA, at least the HW division.
He has not transitioned them well to MMA, his strength is carrying him alone in terms of his shot. That's not to say his top game isn't good. His top game is up there with Fitches and GSP.
Brock does not have the striking ability to flow in to TDs (for example Rashad/GSP) and I believe it's going to cost him this fight convincingly.
He doesn't set them up, he telegraphs them badly. But hey- it's worked for him so far. But please please please take out of your OP that Brock sets up his shots with punches. He doesn't and I keep seeing people saying this and honestly it's making me want to tear my hair out.
*Edit* Brock wants to set up his TD's with punches, but he can't. Yet.
Relax. I can understand your outrage but whether he accomplishes it or not that's what he tries. I can be biased and say "Brock goes in for the power double leg with no setup" but then I'd get Brock fanboys arguing with me. I completely agree with you although I was trying to be sensitive. His style is G'n'P. I have edited post with something that will please you.
Thanks!
It was honestly nothing personal, I've just been reading people saying everywhere.
'Brock sets up his takedowns with punches'
This is the classic 'striker vs wrestler/grappler' that would be something like Manhoef vs Maia.
It's making me go insane. Even the UFC promos are using this and it's making a lot of other people just quote it... 
I just had to vent. Was honestly nothing personal at all man. Thank you for the OP and your write up.
Overeem is not a classic striker. He's a k-1 world champ admittedly he had one of the easiest runs to a K-1 title in the history of the sport. Tyrone sprong is good- not world class. Saki had a broken arm/hand before the fight and had to fight Overeem with it. Then in the finals he fought Aerts who had just had a fucking war with Schilt and was basically unable to get to the ring by him self.
Overeem has legit submission wins over black belts (Belfort I'm looking at you) that immediately makes him not a pure striker as he has some knowledge of grappling. IIRC he has more submission wins than KO's. That makes Overeem a more well rounded fighter than Brock. Overeem can grapple better than Brock can strike. That's not to say Brock can't land a right cross and finish it (given Alistairs suspect chin from the past). Anyone at HW can. Especially after watching Overeems fight with Werdum, Brock may try a bumrush approach and land/fake a big punch then shoot (Similar to Rashad/Rampage opening gameplan) as no one is expecting him to stand with Overeem. He shouldn't try and just stand that would be stupid, not because Overeem is that good imo, but because Brock is that rubbish at pure striking.
We all saw how scared Overeem was to go to the floor with Werdum (not that any of us blame him) but his game plan was appauling and his footwork and lateral movement wasn't great - and he ended up eating some pretty nice punches from Werdum in exchanges. A k-1 world champ should not be eating punches from a below average HW striker. His reflexes alone should have been enough to deal with anything striking wise Werdum threw. This is why I believe Alistair is one of the most overrated strikers of recent time. Can you honestly see other K-1 elite guy eating shots like that? I fail to see Werdum landing a single punch on Badr Hari etc. Even with the threat of a TD.
Now I know people are going to claim that he couldn't freely exchange because he was worried about being taken down (which changes your stance, ability to throw combos, keep your hands lower etc etc) but... behind all of that, Werdums takedowns were garbage (bent back, telegraphed, not set up...etc) and Alistair still should have been able to land much better than he did. Werdum won like 30% of striking exchanges.
Overeem is going to be pretty poor off his back I imagine, if the fight gets there. I imagine it will at some point. I see Overeem turtling up and just attempting to push off or hip escape. I don't see him catching Brock in a sub. As from what I have seen from Brocks top game is that it's very polished and tight. His weight and basing are arguably the best in the division and the way he keeps his hips low and chest low in his opponents is fantastic. Now this I suspect is his game plan. To out cardio Overeem. No one likes being on the bottom, especially beneath a guy like Brock. It tires you out incredibly fast. We've all heard that Brock has super cardio... he doesn't. He might have good cardio for a HW. But no HW can push a decent pace for 5 rounds, period.
I suspect Brocks cardio will be better than Overeems. His game plan will be to shoot, maybe not even pass much, just rabbit punch and stay active enough to take Overeems breath away and make him gas. Maybe for a round or two before really starting to pass and punch through for the finish. I see no other way Brock can win, aside from some sort of Arm Triangle surprise or some shit.
Clinching is where I think this fight will be decided. If it stays standing Overeem wins, ground Brock wins. I believe it's that simple. NO THAT IS NOT THE SAME AS STRIKER VS GRAPPLER.
I'm pretty sure Brocks shot will result in him stacking Overeem in to the fence. What happens there will be big. Overeem is a kick boxing man, not a Muay Thai man. His Muay Thai plum and knees from the clinch are not that good. That's not to say his knees aren't good. They are vicious. But none of them were thrown with his back against a fence. That''s huge as he can't set his back foot for the power (Fujita, Texeira). However, Brock notoriously keeps his head high, and in the middle. Which is asking for a knee or uppercut - Alistairs second favorite punch. He wants to avoid this. Since Overeem has put on the mass and moved to HW he doesn't throw head kicks any more. I question whether he can deliver a powerful knee to Brocks chin at that height.
Can Brock stay dominant enough in the clinch, or secure a TD from the clinch? I suspect he can. However I recon Overeem will be able to turtle effectively.
However I also suspect Brock will get sloppy and probably eat a hard shot during one of these attempts that will see Overeem tko him.
Brock wants to smother Overeem. I am positive that is his gameplan. I just think that Brock will eat a hard shot at some point in the 1st/2nd round and go in to survival mode. If Overeem can sprawl/stuff a TD early on- the confidence it will give him will be fight deciding. He'll realize he can stuff it and open up more. Brock will realize he's going to have difficulty taking him down and will probably be in for a long night.
One factor that not many people seem to be mentioning is cardio. This could get ugly/embarassing by the 3rd round if neither guy gets finished.
It is worth noting Overem has had a terrible camp. Mother got cancer, bounced around USA/Holland. Left x-treme couture. He's left golden glory. I have no idea who the fuck he trains with now. He brought in... what's his name eurgh... a wrestling guy (white dude, curly hair) is this supposed to equate to Brocks power/shot? Hmmm... I think Brock has a better chance at winning this than I previously thought.
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Uhm, pretty sure Cain could push a decent pace for 5 rounds. Not that he's ever been in a 5 round fight [edit: I meant "a fight that has gone 5 rounds"], but he's never shown signs of slowing down in 3 rounds.
But besides Cain you are right.
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On December 30 2011 18:09 Mortality wrote:
Uhm, pretty sure Cain could push a decent pace for 5 rounds. Not that he's ever been in a 5 round fight [edit: I meant "a fight that has gone 5 rounds"], but he's never shown signs of slowing down in 3 rounds.
But besides Cain you are right.
Ah that is a fair point, I hadn't considered Cain. Even so- I don't think he could push a good pace for 5 rounds in a back and forth fight. His longer fights have been all dominant by him. Never seen him have a grueling clinch war or be on his back. Which is only credit to his wrestling credentials.
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God, Nate Diaz is such a tool... they were running a preview today where they interviewed the big four and told some backstory, and there was a bit where Cerrone walked up to Diaz just to say hello, back before he knew they were even going to fight, and Nate just swats his hand and tells him off.
I mean, I always knew Diaz was a bit of a tool, it just amazes me that he reinforces this EVERY time I actually see him get some press.
That said, he has some of the most amazing jiu jitsu in the business, and I LOVE watching him fight. It's tough to bet against him, because he's always surprising and his submissions are always such a threat, but he's been spotty lately, and I don't think he'll pull it off against Cerrone. Cerrone just seems like the real deal; the guy's an athlete, he's MADE for fighting, and he's been on a tear lately.
Verdict: Cerrone by vicious beatdown.
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Overeem by first death in UFC
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got dayum this fight is gonna be insane
probably end in the first minute imo, Overeem by tko
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DR.LETTUCE.
I've missed you.
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Brock/Reem should be a good one! Brock needs to fight smart and not as reckless as before if he wants to win, he needs to get Alistair down and keep him there but that's easier said than done. Overeem's got so many tools though, obviously his superior striking and vicious knees, Brock also needs to watch out for that nasty guillotine or big hook against the cage or going for a TD. Gotta give the edge to Overeem but wouldn't be overly surprised if Brock got the w.
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Cant wait!
Overeem gonna demolish Lesnar.
We talking about a K1 world champion vs a big guy that got the worst stand up fighting ever. Brock Lesnar gonna get destroyed.
All Lesnar got his huge size. Overeem is just as big so its a no brainer.
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I don't have that much time right now to write out my thoughts very clearly, but this is a fight where both fighters have clear areas of strengths so it really could go either way. Dr.Lettuce even though you have given a technical breakdown on why Lesnar's wrestling is overrated (and rightfully so in my opinion), you can't ignore how fast he is for his size, and considering how Overeem has never even faced a good wrestler before (has he even faced a wrestler at all?), I think the speed of Brock's shot will surprise Overeem heavily and Overeem will not be able to time his strikes the way he wants to. That being said clearly Overeem has the ability to end the fight EXTREMELY quickly if he does figure out his timing, but if you think about it, Carwin, Cain, and Couture have all had experience with people with really good shots, and that helped them immensely. Look at how Herring reacted against Lesnar's speed, it wasn't good, and I can easily see Overeem falling into that same trap. Sorry that was a bit shallow but that's the way I see it at the moment ;o Overeem's striking game relies heavily on timing (which he IS very good at) as he does not have great footwork or great speed
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Russian Federation1401 Posts
Dr.Lettuce, some time ago you mentioned that you were going to make your debut in pro-mma. What happened to that?
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Lesnar is massively overrated. He's promoted as the cream of the crop in the HW div but when I look at his skillset he's just a middle of the pack HW imho. A lot has already been said by Dr Lettuce about Lesnar's wrestling technique which is rather poor for a NCAA div1 guy but I might add that he has the most atrocious standup in the entire UFC.
He gets things done almost on pure strengh and athleticism but against Overeem this won't enough. Anything can happen in MMA but I give Overeem 80% chance of winning this.
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EPT
