Since it's getting close to fight day and since I want to collect people's opinions I present to you:
My apologies in advance, I mean no disrespect to the other fights on the main card, which I will get to in a minute, but let me start off with the main attraction.
A lot of people have discussed this bout using wrestler vs striker arguments. I submit this to you: Brock has not fought any true strikers at HW. Alistair has not fought any true wrestlers at HW. Please respect the word TRUE and take it to mean someone "highly" decorated and/or with that particular skill as their primary basis. If we can agree on this statement then let me say this, for both these men this is a perfect test. For Brock, it's a test of "has my striking evolved and can I face JDS" for Overeem it's "Is my wrestling good enough and can I take on a Valasquez if I get through JDS". For me, this is precisely what makes this fight so perfect. It's two men almost (please note the almost) untested against their respective types. Lots of questions and lots of things will get answered in this fight. Is JDS same as Overeem? No. Is Brock same as Valasquez? No. They don't have to be, it's a test. Yes, there are differences in fight styles between JDS/Reem Brock/Cain but today these two fighters are going to the trial, not the final exam.
If you look at the fight records of both fighters, it becomes obvious at Reem has:great submissions - particularly his guillotine - and great standup. What is not reflected in this record is his K-1 WGP stuff. If you haven't seen K-1 Reem this is the only "real" fight he had during the GP:
I think most of you (assuming you clicked on this thread because you follow the UFC) know by now that Brock's primary mode is: try to get the fight to the ground by any means necessary and unleash ground'n'pound. This is usually done by simply overpowering his opponents with his hulking physique and athleticism. He might not be graceful, he might not be technical, but he gets it to the ground eventually.
Now that the introduction is over my prediction.
Prediction : Brock gets a takedown in the first. Alistair doesn't panick, it goes to second round. Second round, both men starting to get tired, Brocks takedowns no longer working, round ends with not too much action. Third round, Alistair comes out swinging, brock goes to the ground, Alistair wins via TKO.
The rest of the card includes :
Donald Cerrone (17-3, 4-0 UFC) vs. Nate Diaz (14-7, 9-5 UFC)
If you havent seen it:
Both men are good. Diaz a bit better on the ground, but Cerrone has him in the striking department. This is going to be boxing (Diaz) vs Muay Thai (Cerrone) and I doubt it will go to the ground. Pumped for this fight after the staredown.
Cerrone Twitter response to staredown: "“I’m not getting paid to fight today. I get paid on Friday when it counts. Let’s see if he’s brave enough to swat my hat off on Friday.... Today, I acted like a professional. Friday, I’m gonna make ‘em pay."
Diaz: “He was just trying to walk forward on me and, y’know, trying to get the jump on me, so whatever. He shouldn’t have walked that close, put his stupid-ass cowboy hat all up on me. I wasn’t trying to be a bully or anything, but he shouldn’t have done that.”
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say Nate Diaz wins... PSYCHE!!! Can't stop the cowboy. Cerrone by decision or TKO 3rd.
Jon Fitch (23-3-1, 13-1-1 UFC) vs. Johny Hendricks (11-1, 6-1 UFC)
I'm sorry but I just can't get excited for a John Fitch fight. This is going to be wrestler against wrestler. I don't know what else to say. Jon Fitch wins by "better positioning".
Vladimir Matyushenko (26-5, 7-3 UFC) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (12-1, 4-1 UFC)
Interesting fight. Vlad's only lost in the last 5 fights is to Jon Jones, the eventual champion. We might actually see his wrestling come out in this one, but then again Gustafsson might get flash KO'ed. (I hope flash KO to offset Fitch/Hendricks... sorry John). Vlad wins.
Nam Phan (17-9, 1-2 UFC) vs. Jim Hettes (9-0, 1-0 UFC)
Nam Phan's cardio and standup vs Hettes judo throws. Hailing from Gracie NEPA Hettes is being billed as the next big thing. Nam Phan will be a true test. Phan wins I think.
However, as stated, I do want you opinions and there is one fight I am interested in (can you tell):
On December 29 2011 13:04 Balfazar wrote: You must have had to search for awhile to find a picture of The Reem that bad, I beseech you to replace it with this one:
Hahahahah, I did it purposely. He was an awkward bastard in pride and that's how I will always think of him! Doesn't mean I don't love the guy... Ubereem for president of the world!
I've got lesnar winning this fight. Brock can take down anyone and overeem wont be any different. Once he lays on top of overeem I just dont see how he can get back up and overeem's cardio will be shot from grappling. The only way Overeem wins is getting the ko at the beginning of the first or second round before he gets taken down. The fight obv wont goto a third round because these guys are superheavyweights.
I'm more excited about the diaz vs ceronne fight. Its going to be a fucking war.
Overall its a great main card (minus the snoozefest fitch fight).
Maybe now that Fitch is wrestling a very high caliber wrestler (Hendricks won 2 (1 really) national titles in college) he won't be able to sit on his opponent for 15 minutes. Probably will though. Hopefully Diaz vs. Cerrone will make up for it though.
I think it's really hard to say what will happen when Brock and Overeem enter the ring together. There's too many factors. It's hard to predict that match up. I wanna lean towards Overeem in a way but Brock is some kinda beast that I wouldn't doubt.
Lot's of good fights on this card too, I like phan, diaz, riddle, and kim. Maybe fitch will be interesting? Who knows.
The Reem Cerrone Fitch (although really, who gives a fuck) Vlad Hettes
I'm calling it like that. And the Fitch fight is going to be boring as hell. I have respect for the grinders, I don't have respect for the grinders that lay and hug it out for the better part of 10 minutes in a 15 minute fight. I know for a fact that when this fight comes on every single person that comes over to watch the PPV will get up and will go to take a piss or get some more booze. I would honestly rather watch paint dry.
Hard to call due to so many variables, I can only say Im hyped to watch this fight card tomorrow night. Great OP btw, really enjoyed the analysis and such.
But yeah, lol @ that stare down between Diaz and Cerrone lololol going be some fiesty'ness in that!
Brock, i always have high hopes for, guy is A BEAST proven being 3 inches shorter yet 9lbs heavier, he trains like a monster and battles like one. Yet i belive his chin still is his weak point after his last encounter, and his win previous to that.
I have high hopes for them both, think Overeem is favorite though.
OP I have to massively disagree with your breakdown on Brock. The guy does NOT set up his take downs with punches. Brocks takedowns are sloppy, he gets by on pure strength. He shoots for high doubles and usually just runs through them in to the cage/floor. I am not impressed with Brocks takedown technique considering the level he wrestled with at NCAA.
His TD on Cain was sloppy, he landed poorly and failed to base properly and tried to pass straight away - Cain popped straight back up. His shot on Carwin was against a badly gassed opponent - and even so.. that was a horrific shot. Brock is shooting high with his head in peoples chests... for anyone well versed in MMA this had advantages and disadvantages in terms of placement and how you land. Brock isn't doing this to avoid knees or guillotines, he's doing this because he can't set up his TD's with strikes effectively so he can't drop down and really power through his opponents unafraid of guillotines etc.
His TD on Couture wasn't a clean shot- it was like I said. Drove through him in to the cage and picked him up. (Bearing in mind the weight difference between those 2 on that night was the same as that between Couture and Penn... interesting) Additionally Couture stuffed the initial single or double I can't remember.
His fight ending TD against Mir was given to him by a jumping knee from the clinch. His first shot on Mir in their second fight in the first round was ok to be honest. Not great, but it resulted in a small scramble (iirc) but his top game sealed it. Plus Mirs wrestling has always been his weak point. All in all... I think Brock has the most overrated wrestling considering his credentials in all of MMA, at least the HW division.
He has not transitioned them well to MMA, his strength is carrying him alone in terms of his shot. That's not to say his top game isn't good. His top game is up there with Fitches and GSP.
Brock does not have the striking ability to flow in to TDs (for example Rashad/GSP) and I believe it's going to cost him this fight convincingly.
He doesn't set them up, he telegraphs them badly. But hey- it's worked for him so far. But please please please take out of your OP that Brock sets up his shots with punches. He doesn't and I keep seeing people saying this and honestly it's making me want to tear my hair out.
*Edit* Brock wants to set up his TD's with punches, but he can't. Yet.
I don't see how your Janitor vs Mauler breakdown makes much sense, Gustafsson is the better striker than Matyushenko by any metric and he has height on his side. To me, this fight is going to be about whether or not Matyushenko can get the fight to the ground, if he can then he will win and if he can't then he will lose.
anyone got any thoughts on dream's NYE 2011 event?
HW bout: Fedor Emelianenko vs. Satoshi Ishii LW title match: Shinya Aoki vs. Satoru Kitaoka FW title match: Hiroyuki Takaya vs. Takeshi "Lion" Inoue Mixed rules bout: Yuichiro Nagashima vs. Katsunori Kikuno WW bout: Hayato "Mach" Sakurai vs. Ryo Chonan FW bout: Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Kazuyuki Miyata 115lbs bout: Megumi Fujii vs. Karla Benitez BWGP Semi Finals: Bibiano Fernandes vs. Rodolfo Marques Diniz BWGP Semi Finals: Antonio Banuelos vs. Masakazu Imanari BWGP Reserve bout: Hideo Tokoro vs. Yusup Saadulaev
theres some k-1 and prowrestling matches mixed in there randomly as well
Fedor vs Ishii: Huge mismatch. I'm not sure why Ishii and his management accepted this fight but it's near unwinnable for him IMO. Fedor by decision or late KO.
Aoki vs Kitaoka: Antonio Carvalho who has trained in the past with both fighters stated that Kitaoka destroys Aoki when they grapple. However, Aoki has been working his striking in singapore for the past year or so, so I expect him to follow a game plan similar to the one he used against shaolin. Kitaoka is monsterous in the first round but he fades heavily in the later rounds. Aoki by decision.
Takaya vs Lion Inoue: I don't know a lot about Inoue except that he hits hard. Takaya always brings it so it should be a good fight.
Nagashima vs Kikuno: Nagashima is the cosplaying (cross dressing) kick boxer that knocked Aoki out last year in a hilarious turn of events. Kikuno was a Japanese prospect who has dropped off the radar recently. I had a lot of hopes for Kikuno, however nowadays he has abandoned the sanchin stance and crescent kicks that brought about his prior success in favor of a bizarre hands by his waist style that gets him outstruck by everyone. If he tries it again against Nagashima I'm expecting vicious knockout.
Mach vs Chonan: Mach is riding a 4 fight losing streak in the twilight of his career at the wrong weight class. As much experience as he has, I can't imagine him beating Chonan (granted I haven't seen a lot of chonan since his ufc run).
Kawajiri vs Miyata: Two of the best Japanese wrestlers. Kawajiri looked incredible submitting Hellboy. Miyata looked just as good suplexing Uno and Lion all over the ring. I expect Kawajiri to try to keep this one standing.
Thoughts on the BWGP: I don't know much about Banuelos other than he defeated a gun shy Tokoro in the quarter finals. For his sake I hope he brings a lot of respect for Imanari otherwise he's not leaving the ring walking. I don't know who Bibiano's opponent is at all, and Bibiano looks good against anyone other than Takaya. I'm expecting a Bibiano vs Imanari rematch in the finals. Hopefully it's not a total snoozefest like the first fight was.
Sakurai should also beat Chonan assuming he doesn't come in with a stupid game plan.
I recon Ishii will last longer than most presume... Fedors fight against Monson showed a smarter yet much more reserved and tentative approach to MMA. I suspect the Ishii fight is to really just provide Fedor with more time to implement and get used to this style of fighting. I'm expecting a clear UD or late tko/ko.
Tbh this card doesn't interest me. I've slowly moved away from Japanese MMA, and that's really sad for me to admit. I grew up watching Pride/Shooto etc.
I expect Aoki will catch him a sub pretty early on. Kitaoka has always had a very awkward sense of grappling and I believe a guy like Aoki is tailor made to catch him in an easy lock. If I had to pick I'd say a heel hook. Praying for an aokiplata though!
Diniz is legit but Bibiano should steam roll him in a round or two with some seriously slick foot work. Agreed abou tthe Imanari rematch.
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