The Elephant in the Room - Page 296

On May 07 2013 02:15 LightSpectra wrote:
Ugh. People still misunderstanding this article to this day.

WHEN THE ARTICLE WAS WRITTEN, the GSL champions were all former BW b-teamers. If Flash or RorO switched over at that time, they would've been essentially unbeatable. If you bring up players like Life, Creator, or Leenock as evidence that the article was wrong, you are COMPLETELY misunderstanding the point. They're very young players, so if SC2 hadn't already been out, then they would have become BW pros.

What the Elephant article is talking about is that bad or washed up BW players like Boxer, NesTea, and MC switched to SC2 because they had no hope of success against the BW a-teamers. Hence the competition in 2010 was a "farce", since most of the talent pool hadn't transitioned yet. That's what the elephant in the room was. Not that all KePSA a-teamers would become bonjwas.

Most of the counter-arguments here are based off of some premises that the article did not present. "What about ForGG?" ForGG was an MSL champion, so theoretically he should've done better in SC2; but people forget that after his MSL win, he fell into a huge slump and retired briefly. Therefore he counts among the "washed up" players like Boxer. "Why are KePSA players not dominating the scene right now?" The article predicted KePSA domination if all of the a-teamers switched over in 2010. That didn't happen. The whole of KePSA switched over in 2012, well after some BW a-teamers had already switched over (like HyuN and MVP), and a new generation of players had become pros. There was a huge practice gap.

Another point to remember is that in 2010, the player with stronger mechanics was almost guaranteed to be the stronger player. So if Jaedong or Bisu had switched over then, they would've been practically unbeatable. But by 2012, this wasn't true anymore; between the time the article was written and the KePSA switch-over, the skill limit for mechanics was reached. In BW, players like BeSt and Bisu were incredibly strong because they had the talent of queuing up new rounds of units in the midst of action. BW required so much APM that there was no real skill limit for this, and there was always room for a stronger macro monster to appear. This talent is practically meaningless as of 2013 SC2, since it's expected that any Code S player should already be able to do that. Pro games now are largely decided by build order advantages, decision making, good engagements, and game sense. That requires a very different skill set, which is why the BW players primarily known for their slick mechanics like Jaedong and Bisu seem to be doing worse than the players who were known for having impeccable game sense, like Rain. (Flash was known both for both his macro skills and his game sense, hence why he's unarguably in the top 3 KePSA players right now.)

Therefore this article isn't a farce, nor was it disproved; it made predictions assuming a hypothetical scenario that didn't happen.

So stop fucking reviving this thread to laugh every time Flash loses to an eSF player, k? You're not gloating because you were in the enlightened minority that didn't believe this article when it was first written, you're actually just telling everybody that your reading comprehension is poor.

On May 08 2013 01:40 TheLunatic wrote:
The sense should have all believe the archaic article failed in all predictions and is yet taking up and wasting room that could otherwise be filled by more worthy an article on a featured thread.

On May 07 2013 02:15 LightSpectra wrote:
Ugh. People still misunderstanding this article to this day.

WHEN THE ARTICLE WAS WRITTEN, the GSL champions were all former BW b-teamers. If Flash or RorO switched over at that time, they would've been essentially unbeatable. If you bring up players like Life, Creator, or Leenock as evidence that the article was wrong, you are COMPLETELY misunderstanding the point. They're very young players, so if SC2 hadn't already been out, then they would have become BW pros.

What the Elephant article is talking about is that bad or washed up BW players like Boxer, NesTea, and MC switched to SC2 because they had no hope of success against the BW a-teamers. Hence the competition in 2010 was a "farce", since most of the talent pool hadn't transitioned yet.

That's what the elephant in the room was. Not that all KePSA a-teamers would become bonjwas.

Most of the counter-arguments here are based off of some premises that the article did not present. "What about ForGG?" ForGG was an MSL champion, so theoretically he should've done better in SC2; but people forget that after his MSL win, he fell into a huge slump and retired briefly. Therefore he counts among the "washed up" players like Boxer. "Why are KePSA players not dominating the scene right now?" The article predicted KePSA domination if all of the a-teamers switched over in 2010. That didn't happen. The whole of KePSA switched over in 2012, well after some BW a-teamers had already switched over (like HyuN and MVP), and a new generation of players had become pros. There was a huge practice gap.

Another point to remember is that in 2010, the player with stronger mechanics was almost guaranteed to be the stronger player. So if Jaedong or Bisu had switched over then, they would've been practically unbeatable. But by 2012, this wasn't true anymore; between the time the article was written and the KePSA switch-over, the skill limit for mechanics was reached. In BW, players like BeSt and Bisu were incredibly strong because they had the talent of queuing up new rounds of units in the midst of action. BW required so much APM that there was no real skill limit for this, and there was always room for a stronger macro monster to appear. This talent is practically meaningless as of 2013 SC2, since it's expected that any Code S player should already be able to do that. Pro games now are largely decided by build order advantages, decision making, good engagements, and game sense. That requires a very different skill set, which is why the BW players primarily known for their slick mechanics like Jaedong and Bisu seem to be doing worse than the players who were known for having impeccable game sense, like Rain. (Flash was known both for both his macro skills and his game sense, hence why he's unarguably in the top 3 KePSA players right now.)

Therefore this article isn't a farce, nor was it disproved; it made predictions assuming a hypothetical scenario that didn't happen.

On May 13 2013 19:07 SiskosGoatee wrote:
Okay, so what you are effectively saying is that the article has no predictive value whatsoever in 2013 and that it therefore can never ever ever be disproven?

Convenient. If the KeSPA players do dominate, the article was right, if they don't. Well, then the article only applied to 2010 eh?

Luckily the argument doesn't hold water due to the above, the players the article called shit are still in code S up to this day. The majority of those KeSPA pros are not.

On May 20 2013 08:14 LightSpectra wrote:
Ignoring all the other things, since they're almost irrelevant compared to this point:



lol? Yes it has no predictive power at this point, because the circumstances it was describing never happened. That's not "convenient", that's just how it happened. Imagine if you gave this treatment to a magazine from 1983 describing the Cold War.

Me: "This magazine says that if the Soviets nuked us in 1983, there would have been a total doomsday scenario."
You: "That never happened, so that article is bullshit."
Me: "No, it probably would have been right, had the scenario it was describing hypothetically occurred."
You: "But there was no total doomsday. So you're saying the magazine had no predictive power? Convenient."

On May 20 2013 08:14 LightSpectra wrote:
Ignoring all the other things, since they're almost irrelevant compared to this point:



lol? Yes it has no predictive power at this point, because the circumstances it was describing never happened. That's not "convenient", that's just how it happened. Imagine if you gave this treatment to a magazine from 1983 describing the Cold War.

Me: "This magazine says that if the Soviets nuked us in 1983, there would have been a total doomsday scenario."
You: "That never happened, so that article is bullshit."
Me: "No, it probably would have been right, had the scenario it was describing hypothetically occurred."
You: "But there was no total doomsday. So you're saying the magazine had no predictive power? Convenient."

On May 22 2013 01:23 Heinsenzerg wrote:
nice post spectra, but calling boxer a washed up player is kinda of an unforgivable thing

On May 21 2013 09:55 SiskosGoatee wrote:
Again, as much as it would be true only if the eSF players that are currently holding their own against KeSPA are not the same players the article called shit 3 years back.

The article lists Losira and Bomber as examples of supposedly shit players who supposedly lack any amount of talent to even compare to BW pros. Did bomber and Losira not make it to the Ro8 of a KeSPA filled GSL? Did they not both beat KeSPA player after KeSPA player? How many BW pros aren't even in code S to begin with? THis includes JD, Jangbi, Stork, Bisu, Fantasy. Of the big six, only Flash is in code S. Bomber got eliminated by Symbol and Losira lost a close 2-3 to sOs.

The article explicitly named bomber and Losira as shit players who wouldn't even be able to remotely compete with the worst KeSPA players, here they are, holding their own against the very best. That is the predictive value of the article where it is provably and indisputable wrong.

On May 23 2013 08:27 LightSpectra wrote:


Thoroughly invalid point, you have no idea how Bomber and Losira would've fared if KePSA switched over in 2010. The KePSA A-teamers aren't all child prodigies y'know, most of them got there after years of monastic training in their team houses. If SC2 never came out, maybe Bomber and Losira would've eventually made the KePSA A-team. I happen to think the only reason they're still in Code S at this point is because they put in the hard, hard effort that separates the A-teamers from the washups.

You can't change the scenario that the article predicted, then claim that it was disproved. That's called a strawman. The article has no predictive power because the circumstances it described didn't happen, but from what we can tell, it had mostly valid points for the time.

The article said these players lack talent. The article said they wouldn't be able to compete with JD or Flash in any RTS at any time. If you miss this point of the article you don't understand it yourself.

The article asserted the competition was a farce not because of the level of play. The article said the competition was a farce because the players supposedly lacked talent and the BW players had it. If you don't get that you need to re-read the article.

The "different game" argument applies to 99.9% of progamers, but not for special players like Jaedong and Flash. The game doesn't matter. Whether it's BW or SC2 or checkers or minesweeper, certain players are so good they will always be at the top.

Where the hell is Jaedong anyway? Is he even in code A? I have no idea, where are Bisu, Stork, Jangbi, Fantasy?

Ehh, you need to re-read the article, it never mentioned a time frame, in fact, it said this:

I am saying that there are 300 current pros and semi-pros that have the potential to come in and dominate SC2 at any moment

I'm sorry, but it's you who needs to re-read the article. It flat out says that it doesn't matter what RTS game and at what time, JaeDong would dominate Losira, it didn't happen.

On May 24 2013 03:30 LightSpectra wrote:


No, actually, that's not what it said. The article did not say that all the Elephants were destined prodigies and would always dominate by natural selection. It actually was very careful to note that players like FruitDealer had extremely relaxed practice routines compared to the likes of Flash and Jaedong, both known for practicing 14 hours a day in their prime.

The author of the article did not foresee that players like MC, Bomber and Losira would then adopt KePSA training regiments for three years (the IM house was the first team house modeled after the KePSA training regiment, hence why the IM players dominated early WoL hardcore). I mean, if they had kept at it in BW, they probably would have made their A-teams eventually.

Hence the competition of 2010/early 2011 was a farce; the only people playing SC2 were there because they found absolutely no success in BW, and the new game was something of a new frontier for them. Eventually the washups like FruitDealer, Ace, Testie and Boxer faded away, while the players that remained were the ones who put in the extreme focus and practice necessary to be good at BW.

What the hell? The quotation you took from the article refutes your own comments about it. The article didn't say that Jaedong and Flash would always be at the top because they were prophesied Chosen Ones and just had more natural talent than all the rest. They're the players that put in the most hard work, and hence come out on top in the long run.

So why aren't Jaedong, Stork and Bisu doing well in SC2? Because they're not quite as motivated as they were in their prime, and thus practice less (or less efficiently). At the time, this was true of the BW washups that were dominating SC2.

lol? Again your quotation contradicts what you're saying about it. The Elephants had the potential to dominate the SC2 scene, not that all of them were predestined to. It never said Jaedong would always beat Losira the moment he switched to SC2. Demonstrate that the article argued this or your points are invalid.

Really though, all of your comments are focusing on the leaves while missing the forest. The exact scenario that the Elephant article predicted didn't occur, so its predictions regarding that scenario can never be proven or disproven. That being said, it had valid points for the time it was written, and the fact that there's more KePSA players in Code S every GSL season since the switch-over seems to indicate that what it said was true: the A-teamers on KePSA got there because they could put in insane amounts of practice, and the ones that are doing so for SC2 -- yes, it happens to be moreso Roro, Rain and Bogus than Jaedong and Bisu, which was unforeseen but doesn't refute the general thesis of the article -- are currently rising to the top.

On June 10 2013 05:55 theBlues wrote:
I think it was worth checking this thread out after this WCS Korea tournament. Indeed competition had been a farce until now.

On June 11 2013 05:58 1raxexpand wrote:


Yes it is a farce until YOU decided that it is not because it is convenient for you. How about 1,2,3 season ago where both esf and kespa competed and esf still dominated? Is it a farce because Kespa did not dominate ?

Kespa players played a lot more HotS (a new game), have nice salaries, coaches, training regime so it is understandable they are on top now. It would be laughable if they are not.