[TV/BOOK] *SPOILERS* Game of Thrones Discussion - Page 65

On March 05 2012 05:36 mmp wrote:

He did not tip off Ser Jorah, so much as Ser Jorah genuinely believed that by killing Dany he would get a pardon home. In book 3, Jorah confesses that he was a part of the plot, but changed his mind after he fell in love. So there is the effect that Jorah looks like the hero, and by some mastermind prompted Drogo into hating Westeros, but I think it all came down to Jorah deciding not to let her die, which means that the pardon offer was sincere. To argue Varys's intention was to keep Dany alive & motivate Drogo, you'd have to include Jorah's misgivings in the planning, which is a stretch of logic in my opinion.

On March 05 2012 06:28 Flik wrote:
By killing off Dany before she had the dragons, Aegon would have an unquestionable right to the throne (Viserys was alive but Varys must have known he'd amount to nothing) Leaving Dany alive when the dragons are alive could help Aegon in a ton of different ways.

Varys sees the intelligent and good side of Tyrion, but he also sees the evil and cunning side that hates his family and would love to get revenge on his sister. Why not send him to Dany? Varys must see the potential in sending him over there. Also does Varys know about Tyrions knowledge of dragons? If so theres another reason.

I don't think killing Tywin was an inconvenience to Varys at all. It did the exact same thing that him killing Kevan did, took the realms out of capable hands and kept it in chaos.

On March 05 2012 07:02 mmp wrote:

So Varys sends Tyrion to meet with Griff, and they together are to meet Dany. Tyrion upsets that plan, Jorah steals him away, and Aegon says, "Forget this, let's just go back to Westeros." They raid the Roost, and Varys shortly after wreaks further havoc at King's Landing (I think it was 100% contingent on Aegon's landing).

So then is Varys just improvising when he kills Kevan, on account of Aegon's early return? His original plan to wait for Dany was ruined?

That would have to mean that Varys sent Tyrion on a fool's errand, or Jorah/Tyrion messed everything up by chance. It's fair to say that Jorah stealing Tyrion prompted Aegon's change in plans, but Aegon had independent reasons to continue to Meereen. That land and sea routes to Meereen were inaccessible also played a part, but it was Tyrion who suggested the great idea to forget Dany and go to Westeros alone. This couldn't have been part of Varys's master plan, or else he and Illyrio could have just suggested it to Griff from the start -- dragons were the plan, but it was a foolish plan. I don't think Varys or Illyrio are fools, so they were either making a large wager, or one of them was not candid with Tyrion about their intentions.

This is either GRRM's inconsistency, or it suggests that Varys and Illyrio are not in lock step.

On March 05 2012 06:46 Xivsa wrote:


No, I think you're confusing the assassin story regarding Dany. Robert wanted her dead above all else - he put the plan in motion himself, through Varys and his contacts. Varys did as he was told, letting Jorah know about it as well. Then Jorah has his epiphany and the plot is foiled. I don't see how from that, you can conclude that Dany's death was Varys' objective. Additionally, Varys has failed to make more attempts on her life. If killing Dany was ever his true goal, he would surely have come up with new plots and betrayals to kill her.

On March 05 2012 07:24 mmp wrote:
Varys's at end of book5 proves that he is 100% pro Griff ("duty trumps birthright"). He never mentions Dany.

Illyrio proved his friendship to Dany with gifts of power.

As cooperative as they are, I don't think Varys & Illyrio have the same intent.

On March 05 2012 05:36 mmp wrote:

He did not tip off Ser Jorah, so much as Ser Jorah genuinely believed that by killing Dany he would get a pardon home. In book 3, Jorah confesses that he was a part of the plot, but changed his mind after he fell in love. So there is the effect that Jorah looks like the hero, and by some mastermind prompted Drogo into hating Westeros, but I think it all came down to Jorah deciding not to let her die, which means that the pardon offer was sincere. To argue Varys's intention was to keep Dany alive & motivate Drogo, you'd have to include Jorah's misgivings in the planning, which is a stretch of logic in my opinion.

If Tyrion's reasoning is sound, then Daenerys won't share power with Aegon, or at least cannot be trusted to make her move any time soon, hence the need to enlist the Golden Company and attack now. If that's so logical, why didn't Illyrio suggest it? Why not Varys? As GRRM introduces the characters, Griff has been waiting for an opportunity in Westeros & hesitating for Aegon's safety. But if Tyrion's right, and trying to tow Dany is foolish, then does that make Illyrio & Varys fools?

The boyhood friendship story? I'm sure that's 100% truthful.

On March 05 2012 07:14 mmp wrote:

Robert commanded it, Varys executed it.

If saving Dany is so vital to Varys's goals, why would he go to the trouble of arranging a genuine assassination, only to leave it in the hands of another confidant to prevent it. He could simply have never ordered the assassination and who would be the wiser?

No, Jorah unexpectedly foiled Robert's plan, which Varys executed dutifully. But Varys did not help Jorah prevent Dany's assassination, he was only using Jorah for information.

What I'm suggesting is that this proves that Varys was indifferent to Dany's life. He could have intentionally bungled the assassination in any number of ways to maintain his credibility, without relying on Jorah.

On March 05 2012 07:32 Xivsa wrote:


That could be true enough. As someone else pointed out, and as seems clear, both Varys and Illyrio do the best with what information and capabilities they have in trying to restore Targaryen rule. I think you're right that Varys didn't mind much either way if the assassination plot succeeded or not. Whereas Illyrio was at least outwardly hoping that Dany would lead an army back to Westeros, Varys' motives regarding Dany in Book 1 range from unknown to indifferent. Varys and Illyrio are hundreds of miles apart, on different continents, and strive to maintain their discreteness or secrecy so it's reasonable that they're not on the exact same line of the exact same page of their guidebook on saving the kingdom.

You mentioned that Varys was 'improvising' when he killed Kevan, and I think that's true. It wasn't immediately clear what Kevan would be able to do or how useful he could be, but once he proved to be a quasi-stabilizing force in King's Landing by trying to control the Cersei situation, Varys decided that was too much stability. I think you're overestimating the ability of Varys and Illyrio to control events. While no doubt they are two of the most wily powerbrokers in the series, they can't simply will whatever they want into being - they roll with the punches and steer events as best they can rather than dictate the exact steps of progression.

On March 05 2012 07:40 Geo.Rion wrote:

I do not think i know Varrys's true intention, more like i really hope i dont since he's probably the coolest non-hero character, but i do think he didnt want Danny dead. Sure, what factual evidence we have kinda point that he designed a genuine assassination attempt which only failed by chance. But, realistically, when did Varrys ever fail like that? They ve put out the world that whoever kills Danny gets big reward from the Iron Throne, that's definitely a way to get some hasty assassins to go ahead and try to kill Danny, which should fail if Danny trully is an heir of the dragonkings. When they've put the bounty out on Tyrion he also found out sooner about it than being in life-danger afaik. OK, it's far fetched to say Varrys knew there would be an attempt which will fail, and counted on the Dothraki to invade Westeros on Danny's behalf, but saying Varrys wanted Danny dead, and it failed so he's given up is also unlikely and very unlike his character. <-that s an opinion

On March 05 2012 07:54 tofucake wrote:

Wasn't he talking about duty to the realm though, not to a family?

On March 05 2012 08:11 ReDShiFT wrote:

Is it more likely that Jorah randomly sniffs out an attempt to kill Dany, or that Varys planned the assassination to fail to show Robert his loyalty, i.e. stay in King's Landing pulling strings, while still keeping a Dany unharmed and reliant on Jorah. If the plot was bungled before reaching Dany there is no evidence that there was an attempt in the eyes of Robert. For Varys to still wield influence in King's Landing the attempt had to reach it's final stage to be believable.
With that being said i do not know what the Long Con that varys and illyrio are trying to ultimately hatch.

On March 05 2012 08:20 mmp wrote:

I think he killed Kevan to break the Casterly Rock - Highgarden alliance, maybe to keep the Tyrell army at King's Landing, now that Griff's army has arrived.

Tyrion spent some 2-3 chapters drinking and feasting with Illyrio. When did Varys hatch the plan to send Tyrion to Dany? When did Varys know that Tyrion would be escorted by Connington's gang? I don't think Varys intended anything for Tyrion but getting him out of Westeros -- if Varys risked his life to rescue Tyrion, why would he then send him on a fool's errand to chase dragons (besides to keep Tyrion in the plot)? I think chasing the dragons was 100% Illyrio's plan, but why the mixed company? If Aegon & Dany are rivals for power as Tyrion suggests, then why send Aegon to Dany? On the one hand, Tyrion bears a message from Illyrio that the time to strike Westeros is now. On the other, Aegon asks Dany to ally behind him when he could have gone alone.

That's a horrible move for Aegon: it takes him farther from Westeros when it is weak, and it delivers all of the initiative to his aunt Dany. The fact of the matter is that Illyrio drew up a bad plan for Aegon in book 5, and Varys should like it unless he is willing to set aside Aegon and side with Dany. From what we know of Varys (killing Kevan & Pycelle for Aegon's sake, indifferent to assassinating Dany), I don't think he'd agree that hunting dragons in Meereen is the best path.

I don't know, I'm probably just reading too much into a plot wrinkle from book 5. As I suggested earlier, GRRM pulled Aegon's plot out of a hat to spice up the game of thrones (now that the Lannisters are tame), but it has resulted in character inconsistency, and so I cannot believe that Illyrio & Varys are as close friends as might appear.

On March 05 2012 09:15 Xivsa wrote:


My ASOIAF knowledge isn't as sharp as it was when I was reading the books, but thinking about all this made me remember another aspect. I think Illyrio, and even more likely Varys, are hedging their bets with Viserys, Dany, Aegon, and any other Targaryen or Targaryen pretender. In other words, they're backing all of them at the same time with various levels of enthusiasm and effectivenessI believe this came out when Illyrio and Varys were talking within earshot of Arya with the dragon skulls. Therefore, your attempt to determine which horse each spymaster is backing isn't quite the right angle to take. Like I was mentioning before, I think both of them are actively enabling any person deemed close enough to the Targaryen line to be able to rise to power in Westeros. So sending Tyrion east makes sense in not only putting distance between him and Cersei but allowing him to further the ambitions of whatever camp he ends up accompanying.

Tyrion's statement that Aegon and Dany are rivals is probably true, but I doubt that matters much to Varys or Illyrio. They're more interested in seeing one, any, Targaryen rise up instead of pinning all their hopes and efforts on any particular one. This is why Viserys' death was not greatly rued by them, nor did it cause even a minor setback in their ambitions. So Illyrio works to get the Targaryen hope an army and the wherewithal to invade, while Varys ensures that Westeros remains as unstable and chaotic as possible to forestall any united opposition to the as-yet indeterminate potential ruler.