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On October 07 2021 07:27 Jaeyun wrote:
Across ASL + KSL RO4 appearances, P showed up 20 times, T 18 times, and Z 22 times. In the last three seasons, it is true P has struggled with appearances aside from Mini last season. But, let's not get carried away here by recency bias.
In a pro scene with a tiny pool of relevant players, we're more likely to be biased by the prevalence of championship (or near championship) level players. The reality is P doesn't have that many anymore, and they took a huge hit when Rain left the scene. Really, it's just been the same suspects: Snow, Best, Mini, Bisu. Stork has always been solid, but if we're being honest, he's a notable step below the others. You can kind of-sort of make a case for Shuttle, but not really.
Terran lost Last, and Flash carries nearly half of T's RO4+ showings in ASL. Take him out and your results plummet. Other T's lately are doing better, but let's see how they perform over multiple ASL's.
You're then left with your top tier Zergs: Larva, Hero, Zero, Soma, JD, Soulkey, Effort. Not to mention at least 3-4 more notables (i.e. Action / Shine) who aren't quite championship caliber but are still dangerous in tournaments.
ZvP has historically been challenging for P but not to the point where it is in need of a balance. P's outside of your top 4 drop off pretty heavily and nothing about the results stands out as a massive imbalance problem, other than what we already knew.
It's not recency bias, it's historically the result that Zerg is generally favored in ZvP. This isn't even controversial among pros. For every meta change where new builds come out and players adapt, Zerg is consistently on top of Protoss for the majority of bw history. Any variation or adaptation of Protoss is easily fixed in Zerg's arsenal of options. They have much less gaps in their ability to adapt where as protoss is more of a rigid race where they don't have much room for mistakes and adaptability. This decreases their margin or error, if they lost a initial zealot exchange scuffle where they can't effectively scout anymore, they're left to guess and hope they guessed right whether its a muta or hydra bust. You might say, well the Protoss player should never let it get to that point to where they can't scout, and that's just the point. If Protoss can't make a mistake and come back to that degree, then by logical reason it means that Protoss has less margin of error.
Just admit the objective facts, Protoss has a much less margin for error. If Protoss is behind 20 supply, 90% of the time they lose the game. If Zerg is 40 supply behind, they can still turn it around more than 10% of the time, accouting for how zerg supply is much smaller 40 supply I'd say is a generous and conservative basis for the argument. If protoss is behind 20 supply that's the equivalent of zerg being 40 supply behind. But we never see the converse true of Protoss having the same comeback ability. Just admit it, Protoss margin for error is much smaller while zerg can make more mistakes and still come back and win.
How long are people going to hide behind the reasoning "It's just not true that it's imbalanced, Protoss player's are just less skilled overall" for the entirety of the game history. I think we had enough of a large sample size to finally make the judgment that Protoss just has a lower ceiling than other races. Unless you want to make the statistically unlikely assessment that EVERY Protoss out there is just on average worse than Zerg.
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On October 07 2021 11:23 Zealgoon wrote:
Fun fact: if you check the result of all ASLs you'll notice that ZvP has a losing record in about half of them. And trust me, it doesn't get any easier below ASL levels.
I do believe the T>Z>P>T anecdote is an outdated axiom from Proleague days. I'd say ZvT had been zerg favored since the fall of 1-1-1 and PvZ is almost perfectly balanced (at top levels, at low levels P is favored). It's always funny to see protoss players single out 973 as the problem while conveniently overlooking the strength of gateway expand and the raw power of the midgame protoss army.
1 gate expand is not that strong, the reason why protoss does any damage is due to the mistakes that zerg player made. Every game where I watch a PvZ and protoss gains the upper hand doing a 1 gate expand, the Zerg player microed poorly or didn't drone drill well enough. It's Zerg's game to lose, not a strength or advantage to Protoss. The only reason why Protoss win those games or gain advantage is because the zerg performance was subpar. So if both players skills are relatively even, most of the time 1 gate does no damage other than forcing zerg to make zerglings but Zerg equalizes that by forcing protoss to bring probes to fight and block their wall and remake their gateway if it gets destroyed which often it does when protoss is trying to cut corners delaying cannon timing for tech.
I never made any claims about the T>Z>P>T, I believe the current status right now is T=Z (closest balance since Zerg resurged with 2 hatch muta opening builds) Z>P and P>=T (PvT balance is pretty equal relatively speaking compared to the past. Protoss still has more options against Terran like how Zerg does against Protoss but the disparity in margin is much smaller here than in ZvP)
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On October 07 2021 10:55 bovienchien wrote:After than 20 years, people still talk about balance of the best balance game ever. There is only the fact: T = P = Z. Today, Arto lost a game just by one zealot and he said that game is great game and so fair with so much angry. But I've never seen he says that, when he beat 10000000 zerg players in less 5 minutes. I wish I can beat Zerg like him. I am one of people watch his stream so much. I come the stream before it starts and go out after it ends every day. But I can't beat any Zerg players from 1000 to 1800 mmr. I have 49% win rate from 7580 games with 1683 hours play game. This is my 200 games that I recorded The first 100 games: TvP: 19-30 38% TvZ: 8-14 36% TvT: 10-10 50% Free win: 9 The second 100 games: TvP: 18-24 42% TvZ: 4-20 20% TvT: 13-10 56% Free win: 11 I don't think Terran is weaker than Zerg, maybe everyone agrees with me. I think Terran = Zerg but I am so weaker than Zerg. All of players even have strengths and weaknesses severally. Do you know win rate TvZ of Flash is the worst and TvT is the best? Playing well instead of cry, whining, complaint to the balance of StarCraft. It's balance but you are not. ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/KupqYHH.png)
I wouldn't use yourself as an anecdote to demonstrate the core principles of the argument. My reasoning is either flawed or it isn't and would like to establish the argument on principles rather than just resorting to arguments from authority or just recent results. We can stick to objective facts. The objective fact is Zerg has relatively little risk when doing the 973 hydra bust in comparison to the risk of Protoss losing if they don't scout it in time and Zerg has all the potential reward for doing so. So Zergs are encouraged to do 973 builds more often than not with great success. Anytime a zerg doesn't win or eventually get the advantage is due to sloppy micro and focus firing and kiting the probes. So you might ask if Zerg has all the reasons to do a 973 hydra bust, why don't they do it all the time? Well if they start doing that Protoss will adapt, and assume you're always doing it and start making cannons earlier and fine tune their builds to account for the hydra bust without losing as much economy when they are not prepared. Then it just becomes a game of chicken like it has been. Zerg can have so many options, 1 fake a hydra bust ---> force Protoss to waste money on cannons and delay gateway timings and just redrone and macro, 2, do a real hydra bust ----> force protoss to waste money on cannons, delay gateway timings, but also sacrifice probes if zerg is committed to killing Protoss, or 3 fake a hydra den as long as protoss didn't see your lair, cancel and do a spire muta switch. So there's just so many things Protoss has to watch out and stay on top for. Zerg gets all the potential rewards with little risk, while Protoss has no recourse if Zerg fakes him out or decides to do it for real. Either way you're screwed unless you maphack or get lucky.
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On October 07 2021 10:14 Essbee wrote:
Maps balance BW, end of story.
Instead of resorting to dogmatic slogans and phrases you hear everyone else saying, why don't you offer some critical thoughts for yourself?
I encourage people to think critically and outside the dogma and what's commonly accepted by the community. I told people back in 2010s that queens could be useful in ZvT, and most people told me that it was too APM intensive for a Zerg pro to incorporate into their play. But what do you know now? Queens are vital in ZvT mech games and even in against some bio builds, you still see zerg sometimes sprinkle in some queen usage in crazy zerg builds against terran.
Same thing with dark archon, most players said dark archon was a useless unit for the majority, but they have their niche use in PvZ. We've had more innovations still after 20+ years, so to say the bw community has it all figured out and the common wisdom that was said years ago is the same is nonsense.
Just because pros adapt to the meta, doesn't mean the meta is necessarily balanced. For all we know it could be the case that Protoss is really the weakest race but they've been compensating for less win ratio and we just chalk it up to the player's skill or perhaps it's vice versa. It could be that because players around the world accept the dogma that bw is 99% balanced that could create a biased self-fulfilling prophecy for where players find an equilibrium of skill in order to keep that status quo that they believe in even if they are putting in more effort. It's like the placebo effect, if you believe so strongly that there is 99% balance in the game, you'll play as if it was, even if it that's not necessarily the case.
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If people spent as much time and energy studying and practicing [insert matchup] as they do complaining about the matchup being imbalanced, they could actually become quite a lot better in that matchup.
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Mr. Moopower. It is difficult to remain diplomatic after these nonsense but i try. Who is just cry '' Zerg easy '' '' Protoss easy '' '' Terran op '' and continue. Easier to cry right (working and training and better like the other Hard Yes i know. )
U said Progamer what say.... don't say that( see Bonyth great interview with Mini ) put something on the table ( not even then u change '' balance and other '' Who are you to suggest this? For me it is very sad that there are such.
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Very sad guy
ab = tl(i) + tl(pc)
argument bias = tl (icon) + tl (post count)
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thedeadhaji
39489 Posts
On October 07 2021 15:07 TT1 wrote:
Very sad guy
ab = tl(i) + tl(pc)
argument bias = tl (icon) + tl (post count)
Meow.
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Remembering R24 of ASL12 resulted perfect balance of 4/4/4. Mini's style of playing will affect other P like Bisu's play.
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On October 07 2021 13:53 Magic Powers wrote:
If people spent as much time and energy studying and practicing [insert matchup] as they do complaining about the matchup being imbalanced, they could actually become quite a lot better in that matchup.
Have you actually addressed the points or arguments or are you just making ad hominems? By your logic, unless you are the level of a progamer, you shouldn't be able to analyze any situation at all. Which means artosis or any other caster who is less skilled than a progamer doesn't have any relevant opinion to cast about. The point being is, you don't necessarily have to be as a high ranked player to notice the faults. You simply have to address the principle at play here, which is apparent, but nobody is challenging me on.
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On October 07 2021 15:43 HOLYBATS wrote:
Remembering R24 of ASL12 resulted perfect balance of 4/4/4. Mini's style of playing will affect other P like Bisu's play.
Mini is a cut above the rest of the protoss players in terms of PvZ, but let's not forget the games he did win in ASL 12 were not that convincing that he won due to his skill but more of the misplays of his Zerg opponents that just played much worse than him. They simply made much more mistakes. But had they been more evenly matched in skill, Mini may not have had the same success.
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On October 07 2021 13:53 Magic Powers wrote:
If people spent as much time and energy studying and practicing [insert matchup] as they do complaining about the matchup being imbalanced, they could actually become quite a lot better in that matchup.
Not complaining about my personal matches in PvZ, because I know the games I win/lose is due to my skill level, highest rank is a solid B, not a particularly high rank but not that low either in terms of the average player. But at the highest pro level I'm making the assessment that it's zerg favored when both players are more evenly matched.
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Moopower I don't want want to argue about PvZ , ZvT etc... Just want to say I like how you write ! No joke, no nothing !
Very clear and nice words ! Maybe I could learn some phrases 
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On October 07 2021 15:50 Moopower wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2021 13:53 Magic Powers wrote:
If people spent as much time and energy studying and practicing [insert matchup] as they do complaining about the matchup being imbalanced, they could actually become quite a lot better in that matchup. Have you actually addressed the points or arguments or are you just making ad hominems? By your logic, unless you are the level of a progamer, you shouldn't be able to analyze any situation at all. Which means artosis or any other caster who is less skilled than a progamer doesn't have any relevant opinion to cast about. The point being is, you don't necessarily have to be as a high ranked player to notice the faults. You simply have to address the principle at play here, which is apparent, but nobody is challenging me on.
This paragraph I like !
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You're missing the point. 973 is a powerful play that's very difficult for protoss to deal with properly, but it makes no sense to evaluate a strategy in a vacuum. You might as well make an argument for nerfing zealots because gateway expand is harder for Z to defend than for P to execute, or for nerfing high templars because it's much harder to dodge storms than to land them. Ultimately though, you have to look at the matchup in its entirety - and when a matchup is this close to 50:50 you're going to have a hard time convincing anyone it warrants a balance patch.
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People don’t have the same skill they had in kespa era so the differences become more apparent.
If we had Bisu in his prime, he would wipe the floor with today’s zergs via drops, multitasking and army control.
The Protoss aren’t good enough now. I don’t think the matchup is 100% balanced but it’s not broken imo
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i agree that zerg shouldnt complain about protoss, But protoss is a good race until zerg gets to a good level where they dont complain about protoss anymore ( around 2500 mmr)
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On October 07 2021 15:50 Moopower wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2021 13:53 Magic Powers wrote:
If people spent as much time and energy studying and practicing [insert matchup] as they do complaining about the matchup being imbalanced, they could actually become quite a lot better in that matchup. Have you actually addressed the points or arguments or are you just making ad hominems? By your logic, unless you are the level of a progamer, you shouldn't be able to analyze any situation at all. Which means artosis or any other caster who is less skilled than a progamer doesn't have any relevant opinion to cast about. The point being is, you don't necessarily have to be as a high ranked player to notice the faults. You simply have to address the principle at play here, which is apparent, but nobody is challenging me on.
Astute observation. Some form of expert insight is required for an accurate understanding of the current state of the game. In my understanding you lack expertise, and thus - since you haven't provided any other form of evidence - your ideas can be dismissed.
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need more PvZ friendly maps
no balance changes for BW possible after 20 years of inaction, i'm afraid.
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On October 07 2021 15:55 Moopower wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2021 15:43 HOLYBATS wrote:
Remembering R24 of ASL12 resulted perfect balance of 4/4/4. Mini's style of playing will affect other P like Bisu's play. Mini is a cut above the rest of the protoss players in terms of PvZ, but let's not forget the games he did win in ASL 12 were not that convincing that he won due to his skill but more of the misplays of his Zerg opponents that just played much worse than him. They simply made much more mistakes. But had they been more evenly matched in skill, Mini may not have had the same success.
Sometimes you win because your opponent makes more mistakes than you.
Sometimes you win because you make your opponent make more mistakes than you.
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EPT
