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Canada8989 Posts
On March 10 2020 04:32 Logo wrote:Show nested quote +but give Hillary a free coronation at the convention instead of months of debate and she probably enter the general election much stronger This line of argument to me is just bullshit meant to keep you in line the same as "Vote blue no matter who". If Sanders drops out early there's no reason for the party to compromise with him, he will have no leverage. A candidate only looks worse entering the general after a long primary if she makes herself look bad in the primary. Otherwise everything they will get in the primary is the same as what they'll get in the general. Obama-Hillary had a really drawn out primary (with Hillary running one of the darkest primaries ever) and it that turned out pretty well for him.
Well I mean Hillary did made herself look bad, but the fact that it was "her fault" doesn't mean that Sanders primary challenge didn't hurt her. It's pretty clear that every second she passed campaigning was a bad one for her.
Again I'm not saying he shouldn't have done it, or that he should drop out, I certainly hope he can still win, but it gotta be in the back of his head that he doesn't want to be set on destroying Biden only to have him go head to head against someone he find even worst in 6 months.
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On March 10 2020 04:41 JimmiC wrote:
Dow with its biggest single day drop since 87 and oil plummeted because SA flooding the market.
Reagan's VP from 80 to 88 .... George Bush Senior won in '88.
So I don't know if a stock market collapse is a defining factor in a Presidential race.
On March 10 2020 04:41 JimmiC wrote:
All this disruption could be exactly what Bernie needs to say the system is broken and needs to be re-imagined.
Its all relative. the Canadian economy has been in recession for 8 months now. So the US "system" might not be perfect... but its better than what Canada has going.
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Canada8989 Posts
On March 10 2020 07:29 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2020 04:41 JimmiC wrote:
Dow with its biggest single day drop since 87 and oil plummeted because SA flooding the market. Reagan's VP from 80 to 88 .... George Bush Senior won in '88. So I don't know if a stock market collapse is a defining factor in a Presidential race. Show nested quote +On March 10 2020 04:41 JimmiC wrote:
All this disruption could be exactly what Bernie needs to say the system is broken and needs to be re-imagined.
Its all relative. the Canadian economy has been in recession for 8 months now. So the US "system" might not be perfect... but its better than what Canada has going.
That's a pretty narrow take on what a working economic system is.
The economy is not a country by country thing we are essentially in the same economic system as the US. The canadian economy being in a "recession", dosen't actually mean much for the day to day lives of most canadian when the US economy is in good shape, and it's a pretty slight recession we are into and we are (or at least were) on the up side. It's also pretty much a sole consequence of the decline of the hydrocarbure exportation and investment project in Alberta from what I understand. It suck big time for Northen Albertain of course, but it's more of sectorial thing than a global economic problems, the unemployement rate is still very low.
But if the US or the asian market crashes, than the whole world wide economy could crash with it like in 2008-09 and it would probably have a much larger effect on the canadian economy as well.
It wouls also remin everyone that banker really need their bonus for the long hours they put into sorting out who's gonna have to lose their houses and that the fewers states policy protection there is the greater the risk is on everyone actual day to day basic survivance when a recession hit.
It also just so happen than most of the major institution organising and trying to regulate globalize capitalism are still base in the US or financed by the US and making change to those institution throught the US presisency could have major repercussion on the way the global economy work.
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Today is the Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, and Washington primaries for the Democratic nominee. Objectively, I'm pretty sure that Biden is going to crush Sanders today and increase his lead even further. I don't think it's going to be very close overall, and polling supports that.
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TLADT24920 Posts
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Canada5565 Posts
On March 11 2020 06:24 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Today is the Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, and Washington primaries for the Democratic nominee. Objectively, I'm pretty sure that Biden is going to crush Sanders today and increase his lead even further. I don't think it's going to be very close overall, and polling supports that.
Agreed. I find it surprising and disappointing. Bernie seemed to have a lot of momentum up to Super Tuesday.
I like NPR's setup for following primaries: https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200310-primaries/
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On March 11 2020 06:24 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Today is the Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, and Washington primaries for the Democratic nominee. Objectively, I'm pretty sure that Biden is going to crush Sanders today and increase his lead even further. I don't think it's going to be very close overall, and polling supports that.
The good thing is that if Biden really does clean house, it helps to show that a ton of people truly hated Clinton more than we could ever understand. My impression is that the reason Bernie did well in strangely moderate areas in 2016 is because they all hated Clinton THAT much. They were "never Clinton" rather than pro-Bernie. Which is sad for me, but oh well. I hope we end up realizing a moderate is just fine so long as it isn't Clinton. I just really need Trump to lose.
A huge reason I am anti-moderate is that it doesn't fucking work. Sure, lecture me about "bUt WhAt AbOuT mIdDlE aMeRiCa????" if they actually make a fucking difference. But they shit on Clinton, so I didn't get anything out of that trade. At least Bernie moves the conversation forward.
But if Biden actually wins, I will find myself significantly more accepting of moderate middle-ground. I'll still vote for extremely progressive candidates in primaries, but I'll feel less like dying when I vote for a moderate in a general if they could actually fucking win.
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Hot take: if Bernie gets crushed today he ought to drop. Short of Biden getting coronavirus and keeling over, he's getting a majority of pledged delegates and will be the nominee. Assuming Biden does keel over, make it a unity ticket with Sanders and whoever Biden picks as VP.
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On March 11 2020 07:13 ticklishmusic wrote:
Hot take: if Bernie gets crushed today he ought to drop. Short of Biden getting coronavirus and keeling over, he's getting a majority of pledged delegates and will be the nominee. Assuming Biden does keel over, make it a unity ticket with Sanders and whoever Biden picks as VP.
Agreed. If Bernie ends up getting punched in the throat, time to call it quits. I don't like the whole "raise a huge scene so you can negotiate more at the convention" thing.
Also, happy to see you posting. Missed ya! I hope oneofthem, zlefin and P6 also return.
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On March 11 2020 07:22 Sent. wrote:
oneofthem was permed
so was zeflin.
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I forget who (I think it was Naka?) provided some context last time, but I was wondering if anyone wanted to offer an idea as to why California was called by the AP the night of voting but still hasn't been called by WaPo, MSNBC, and CNN?
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On March 11 2020 08:17 GreenHorizons wrote:
I forget who (I think it was Naka?) provided some context last time, but I was wondering if anyone wanted to offer an idea as to why California was called by the AP the night of voting but still hasn't been called by WaPo, MSNBC, and CNN?
They haven't called the state at all - as in, they haven't even declared Sanders the winner? Or they simply haven't called the exact distribution of delegates? Because I don't know if California has finished allocating the final split between Sanders and Biden, so the latter would make sense, although I can't imagine why they wouldn't even call the former.
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On March 11 2020 07:13 ticklishmusic wrote:
Hot take: if Bernie gets crushed today he ought to drop. Short of Biden getting coronavirus and keeling over, he's getting a majority of pledged delegates and will be the nominee. Assuming Biden does keel over, make it a unity ticket with Sanders and whoever Biden picks as VP.
Whether Sanders quits tomorrow or in a few months, I'm confident that he'll push for unity like he did in the 2016 primary. AOC has also voiced that she would happily get in line behind Biden if Biden wins, and with two of the most popular progressives standing with moderates if the moderates win the primary, I hope that the Sanders supporters follow suit.
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Pick Warren as VP for the unity ticket but of course that's never going to happen.
You know what, I think I'll get out of this for some time. Maybe find a therapist or something. I'm not feeling well at all.
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On March 11 2020 08:20 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2020 08:17 GreenHorizons wrote:
I forget who (I think it was Naka?) provided some context last time, but I was wondering if anyone wanted to offer an idea as to why California was called by the AP the night of voting but still hasn't been called by WaPo, MSNBC, and CNN? They haven't called the state at all - as in, they haven't even declared Sanders the winner? Or they simply haven't called the exact distribution of delegates? Because I don't know if California has finished allocating the final split between Sanders and Biden, so the latter would make sense, although I can't imagine why they wouldn't even call the former.
The former.
They still say "it is too close to call" despite his vote gap going from ~250,000 when I first asked here, to ~300,000 now with over 4 million votes in.
www.washingtonpost.com
www.cnn.com
www.nbcnews.com
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On March 11 2020 08:26 Nebuchad wrote:
Pick Warren as VP for the unity ticket but of course that's never going to happen.
I know a lot of Sanders supporters who feel slighted by Warren for various reasons (walking back her support for M4A, sexist accusations, staying in the primary through Super Tuesday, etc.). Not saying those supporters are justified or not, but now I don't know how favorably she's viewed by Sanders supporters, even if she's objectively more progressive than Biden.
On March 11 2020 08:34 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2020 08:20 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 11 2020 08:17 GreenHorizons wrote:
I forget who (I think it was Naka?) provided some context last time, but I was wondering if anyone wanted to offer an idea as to why California was called by the AP the night of voting but still hasn't been called by WaPo, MSNBC, and CNN? They haven't called the state at all - as in, they haven't even declared Sanders the winner? Or they simply haven't called the exact distribution of delegates? Because I don't know if California has finished allocating the final split between Sanders and Biden, so the latter would make sense, although I can't imagine why they wouldn't even call the former. The former. They still say "it is too close to call" despite his vote gap going from ~250,000 when I first asked here, to ~300,000 now with over 4 million votes in. www.washingtonpost.comwww.cnn.comwww.nbcnews.com
That's really odd to me. Fortunately, I don't think that'll influence today's primary.
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On March 11 2020 08:42 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2020 08:26 Nebuchad wrote:
Pick Warren as VP for the unity ticket but of course that's never going to happen. I know a lot of Sanders supporters who feel slighted by Warren for various reasons (walking back her support for M4A, sexist accusations, staying in the primary through Super Tuesday, etc.). Not saying those supporters are justified or not, but now I don't know how favorably she's viewed by Sanders supporters, even if she's objectively more progressive than Biden. Show nested quote +On March 11 2020 08:34 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 11 2020 08:20 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 11 2020 08:17 GreenHorizons wrote:
I forget who (I think it was Naka?) provided some context last time, but I was wondering if anyone wanted to offer an idea as to why California was called by the AP the night of voting but still hasn't been called by WaPo, MSNBC, and CNN? They haven't called the state at all - as in, they haven't even declared Sanders the winner? Or they simply haven't called the exact distribution of delegates? Because I don't know if California has finished allocating the final split between Sanders and Biden, so the latter would make sense, although I can't imagine why they wouldn't even call the former. The former. They still say "it is too close to call" despite his vote gap going from ~250,000 when I first asked here, to ~300,000 now with over 4 million votes in. www.washingtonpost.comwww.cnn.comwww.nbcnews.com That's really odd to me. Fortunately, I don't think that'll influence today's primary.
I don't see how it hasn't already, but I think it is important independent of that. Like Iowa not having a winner is important independent of who the IDP says won (with openly bad math).
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EPT
