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Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
November 28 2018 21:22 GMT
#1781
On November 29 2018 05:21 iamthedave wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 29 2018 05:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:
On November 28 2018 09:04 xDaunt wrote:
On November 28 2018 08:52 IgnE wrote:
It’s pretty easy to enforce the peace actually. Just threaten to withhold aid unless Israel immediately stops their settlements and makes other overtures towards peace.

Pulling the money strings didn't work on the Palestinians. Why do you think it will work on the Israelis?

EDIT: Hell, let's look at the other side of the coin. How many countries do we sanction for bad behavior? How effective have those sanctions been at changing that bad behavior?


the most relevant example is south africa. international pressure worked.


Did it? I thought Mu-WAHAHAHA-gabe was deposed by a military coup in the end?

Are you talking about Mugabe of Zimbabwe fame? He’s referring to a different African country.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28825 Posts
November 28 2018 21:37 GMT
#1782
What's the relation between Mugabe and south africa?

South Africa was an apartheid regime which stopped being an apartheid regime because the international community started treating them like a pariah state. It took a long time, it featured much more sympathetic freedom fighter figures than anyone in Hamas constitutes (fighting a sympathy PR battle against Mandela/Desmond Tutu is hard), boycotts were large and encompassing, and the conflict was easier to resolve.

It did however show that, unless you're talking nations the size of china or usa, international pressure/boycotts can work. They do not if large segments of the international community don't want to join in, but if it's a real joint effort, then absolutely. IF the US genuinely decided to completely pull military support for Israel unless Israel stopped all expansive settlements (I know that this would not be sufficient to achieve peace, don't see that happening without going back to 1967 borders or whatever, which I don't picture happening), then I absolutely believe that Israel would comply and discontinue the encroaching settlements.
Moderator
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
November 28 2018 22:48 GMT
#1783
You picked one example from 25-30 years ago where sanctions and international pressure may have made a difference. That's not a very good track record, and it certainly doesn't "show that, unless you're talking nations the size of china or usa, international pressure/boycotts can work" given all of the internal pressures in South Africa that contributed to the collapse of Apartheid.
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28825 Posts
November 28 2018 23:06 GMT
#1784
Do you really believe Israel would continue with the expansive settlements if every major political actor in the US said unequivocally that the continuation would cause them to lose all military and monetary support? I know this is obviously completely hypothetical, but do you genuinely believe that Israel would disregard a demand/threat of this sort coming from the US? (Once again, I'm not arguing that lasting peace could be achieved through this alone, so you don't even have to concede your major point.)
Moderator
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
November 28 2018 23:24 GMT
#1785
In the case of Israel specifically, I would not be surprised if they did.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
November 28 2018 23:43 GMT
#1786
On November 29 2018 08:06 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Do you really believe Israel would continue with the expansive settlements if every major political actor in the US said unequivocally that the continuation would cause them to lose all military and monetary support? I know this is obviously completely hypothetical, but do you genuinely believe that Israel would disregard a demand/threat of this sort coming from the US? (Once again, I'm not arguing that lasting peace could be achieved through this alone, so you don't even have to concede your major point.)

The US provides roughly $3 billion per year to Israel, which is about 1% of Israel's GDP. That's not enough to offset Israel's strategic valuation of land. Besides, Israel has already bucked the US and the UN when it comes to pushing its settlements. So even presuming that the US made such a threat, I have doubts that Israel would care.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24053 Posts
November 29 2018 00:01 GMT
#1787
I'd just say that sanctions don't have to stop at not helping them, we can stop resisting the rest of the world who would like some accountability.

Freezing assets, limiting international trade, transportation restrictions, arms embargo, and so on are all on the table. The US is the only thing standing in the way.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
November 29 2018 00:05 GMT
#1788
Again, it is not in the American interest to shaft Israel. Israel is valuable to the US. Palestine is not.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24053 Posts
November 29 2018 00:33 GMT
#1789
On November 29 2018 09:05 xDaunt wrote:
Again, it is not in the American interest to shaft Israel. Israel is valuable to the US. Palestine is not.


I disagree. I don't think supporting ethnic cleansing/genocide even of "our enemy" is in our interests.

But my point was cutting direct aid is only a tiny part of what can be done which you seem to not disagree with.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
November 29 2018 00:58 GMT
#1790
On November 29 2018 09:33 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 29 2018 09:05 xDaunt wrote:
Again, it is not in the American interest to shaft Israel. Israel is valuable to the US. Palestine is not.


I disagree. I don't think supporting ethnic cleansing/genocide even of "our enemy" is in our interests.

But my point was cutting direct aid is only a tiny part of what can be done which you seem to not disagree with.


This framing of the US/Israel relationship is not accurate.
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-11-29 01:10:53
November 29 2018 01:06 GMT
#1791
Unsurprisingly, there's no honor among thieves:

Michael Avenatti sued Donald Trump for defaming Stormy Daniels against her wishes, Daniels told The Daily Beast in a statement on Wednesday.

Avenatti also started a new fundraising site to raise money for her legal defense fund without telling her, Daniels said. She said she is not sure whether or not she will keep Avenatti on as her lawyer.

Here is her full statement, provided to The Daily Beast:

“For months I’ve asked Michael Avenatti to give me accounting information about the fund my supporters so generously donated to for my safety and legal defense. He has repeatedly ignored those requests. Days ago I demanded again, repeatedly, that he tell me how the money was being spent and how much was left. Instead of answering me, without my permission or even my knowledge Michael launched another crowdfunding campaign to raise money on my behalf. I learned about it on Twitter.


Read the rest here.

Though I'm perfectly willing to accept that Avenatti is a dirt bag, I have a really hard time believing that he filed the lawsuit against her wishes. Doing so would not only be catastrophically unethical, but we would have heard something about it well-before now. You don't make this charge after you have already lost your case when you had previously gone on media tours with your attorney after filing the suit. What I do wonder, however, is whether Avenatti adequately advised her of the risk of filing the suit in the first place. It was a really stupid set of claims to bring that carried the very risk of what actually happened -- dismissal in Trump's favor at the pleadings stage, meaning that Trump would be entitled to his attorney fees. I certainly would have advised Stormy not to file such a lawsuit.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
November 29 2018 01:25 GMT
#1792
I wager Avenatti is out from the Swetnick reveal and the assault/battery arrest in the political movement home to Believe All Women. The attention on him is just the Trump-like fascination for spectacle on cable news.

That just leaves Warren, Beto, Sanders, Brown, Gillibrand, Booker, Harris, Biden, Klobuchar, Delaney, Swallwell, Biden, Bloomberg, Merkley, Steyer and I'm probably missing a few and intentionally discounting some others for no good reason. Two officially declared candidates as I recall reading. Kavanaugh probably started the 2020 Democratic presidential primary season, but we're in a bit of a lull before the storm.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24053 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-11-29 03:49:11
November 29 2018 03:48 GMT
#1793
On November 29 2018 09:58 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 29 2018 09:33 GreenHorizons wrote:
On November 29 2018 09:05 xDaunt wrote:
Again, it is not in the American interest to shaft Israel. Israel is valuable to the US. Palestine is not.


I disagree. I don't think supporting ethnic cleansing/genocide even of "our enemy" is in our interests.

But my point was cutting direct aid is only a tiny part of what can be done which you seem to not disagree with.


This framing of the US/Israel relationship is not accurate.


It's not complete, but I see no inaccuracies.

Again, it is not in the American interest to shaft Israel. Israel is valuable to the US. Palestine is not.


This is somewhat unrelated but this line of thinking is why I say we would have sat by and watched Jews get slaughtered and allied with Nazi Germany against communism if it weren't for Pearl Harbor.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
November 29 2018 04:13 GMT
#1794
Avenatti possesses every qualification that Trump possesses, but fewer vices. And there is no counterargument to that assertion.
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
November 29 2018 04:23 GMT
#1795
On November 29 2018 12:48 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 29 2018 09:58 xDaunt wrote:
On November 29 2018 09:33 GreenHorizons wrote:
On November 29 2018 09:05 xDaunt wrote:
Again, it is not in the American interest to shaft Israel. Israel is valuable to the US. Palestine is not.


I disagree. I don't think supporting ethnic cleansing/genocide even of "our enemy" is in our interests.

But my point was cutting direct aid is only a tiny part of what can be done which you seem to not disagree with.


This framing of the US/Israel relationship is not accurate.


It's not complete, but I see no inaccuracies.


It's neither complete (which, btw, necessarily implies inaccuracy) nor factually based. We aren't sending money to Israel for the express purpose of funding their genocide against Palestine. It's all incidental.

Show nested quote +
Again, it is not in the American interest to shaft Israel. Israel is valuable to the US. Palestine is not.


This is somewhat unrelated but this line of thinking is why I say we would have sat by and watched Jews get slaughtered and allied with Nazi Germany against communism if it weren't for Pearl Harbor.


No, we still would have ended up fighting the Nazis at some point. Even before Pearl Harbor, the US was on a trajectory to do so.

The argument that you should be making is that we would not have started fighting the Nazis for the express purpose of saving the Jews. And that I do agree with. There is no shortage of atrocities that have occurred before and after WW2 that we ignored, ranging from the Armenian genocide, to the Japanese invasion of China, to all of the shit that happened in the Soviet Union and communist China, and all of the genocides that have happened in places like Cambodia or various African countries. The only one that we really did intervene in was Bosnia, and that's because it was happening on Europe's back porch.

The simple reality is that we don't have the resources to right every wrong globally. We have to pick our battles and not waste ourselves in the process.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24053 Posts
November 29 2018 04:23 GMT
#1796
On November 29 2018 13:13 Doodsmack wrote:
Avenatti possesses every qualification that Trump possesses, but fewer vices. And there is no counterargument to that assertion.


If wealth and fame are qualifications Trump's got him beat there. He's a good example of another direction (as opposed to going the Kasich with a (D) route) we could go if people don't get beyond "they're better than Trump" though.

He shouldn't be much more than a punchline when it comes to presidential ambitions.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24053 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-11-29 04:39:47
November 29 2018 04:32 GMT
#1797
On November 29 2018 13:23 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 29 2018 12:48 GreenHorizons wrote:
On November 29 2018 09:58 xDaunt wrote:
On November 29 2018 09:33 GreenHorizons wrote:
On November 29 2018 09:05 xDaunt wrote:
Again, it is not in the American interest to shaft Israel. Israel is valuable to the US. Palestine is not.


I disagree. I don't think supporting ethnic cleansing/genocide even of "our enemy" is in our interests.

But my point was cutting direct aid is only a tiny part of what can be done which you seem to not disagree with.


This framing of the US/Israel relationship is not accurate.


It's not complete, but I see no inaccuracies.


It's neither complete (which, btw, necessarily implies inaccuracy) nor factually based. We aren't sending money to Israel for the express purpose of funding their genocide against Palestine. It's all incidental.

Show nested quote +
Again, it is not in the American interest to shaft Israel. Israel is valuable to the US. Palestine is not.


This is somewhat unrelated but this line of thinking is why I say we would have sat by and watched Jews get slaughtered and allied with Nazi Germany against communism if it weren't for Pearl Harbor.


No, we still would have ended up fighting the Nazis at some point. Even before Pearl Harbor, the US was on a trajectory to do so.

The argument that you should be making is that we would not have started fighting the Nazis for the express purpose of saving the Jews. And that I do agree with. There is no shortage of atrocities that have occurred before and after WW2 that we ignored, ranging from the Armenian genocide, to the Japanese invasion of China, to all of the shit that happened in the Soviet Union and communist China, and all of the genocides that have happened in places like Cambodia or various African countries. The only one that we really did intervene in was Bosnia, and that's because it was happening on Europe's back porch.

The simple reality is that we don't have the resources to right every wrong globally. We have to pick our battles and not waste ourselves in the process.


What would the US interest be if instead of Pearl Harbor we come to terms on how the world gets divided between the US, Germany, and Japan along with commitments from Japan and Germany to fight the people we ended up fighting once the war was "over"?

Basically all WWII did for us was give us weaker allies against communism than we would have had in Nazi Germany and Japan, neither being any real threat to us dominating the western hemisphere.

I suppose some prefer a submissive/fragmented Europe, a helpless (as far as military aggression) Japan, and China and Russia being the other major powers and hostile. Instead of 2 peers in Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28825 Posts
November 29 2018 05:44 GMT
#1798
Roosevelt and Churchill debated american intervention in ww2 prior to pearl harbor in a way that makes it seem like it was going to happen either way. Tbh I think part of the problem was that the proposed justification by Roosevelt was one which would end up providing the foundation for the dismantling of the british empire, which Churchill didn't want.

xDaunt, it's not really about the raw numbers. It's that a country like Israel cannot afford to be without friends or allys. I'm not saying it can't survive by itself, but I'm quite certain Americans vocally stating that 'we cannot continue to support you or consider you our ally as long as you maintain this policy' would influence internal Israeli opinion on the matter. And it's not like the settlements have huge internal support in Israel: Israeli opinions on various questions related to the settlement process

Here you can see that even though the general public believes that Trump will enable Israel to continue building settlements, the question 'Recently a number of Israeli politicians from the right have declared that with U.S. president Trump taking office, a new political era is beginning in our region as well, and Israel should exploit the opportunity to expand construction in considerable parts of Judea and Samaria/the West Bank. In your opinion, should Israel indeed expand construction at this time?' gets a slightly negative response even from the Jewish Israeli population:
Israeli Jews
I'm sure it should 20.5%
I think it should 24.8%
I think it should not 25.4%
I'm sure it should not 24.6%
Don't know 4.7%

(so, basically, 45% supportive of expanding settlements, 50% negative)

And that is polling a group of people where 70% of the respondents answered that they are either sure or think they will be able to continue building them under the Trump administration.

The question "If a referendum were to be held in Israel today on whether, in principle, it is desirable to remain, as at present, in the West Bank/Judea and Samaria or to leave it, how would you vote?", 41.3% of the general public voted 'In favor of leaving the West Bank/Judea and Samaria', 11.1% answered don't know, declined to answer. Internal Israeli opinion is not staunchly in favor of the settlement policies, and it seems silly to me to think that Israel's one major ally could not sway Israeli opinion in a way that makes the settlements even less popular.

The entire international support for Palestine in this question hinges on the Israeli settlements. If Israel offered peace and 1967 borders, Palestine's international sympathy would vanish in a second if they refused.
Moderator
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
November 29 2018 05:57 GMT
#1799
On November 29 2018 13:32 GreenHorizons wrote:
What would the US interest be if instead of Pearl Harbor we come to terms on how the world gets divided between the US, Germany, and Japan along with commitments from Japan and Germany to fight the people we ended up fighting once the war was "over"?

Basically all WWII did for us was give us weaker allies against communism than we would have had in Nazi Germany and Japan, neither being any real threat to us dominating the western hemisphere.

I suppose some prefer a submissive/fragmented Europe, a helpless (as far as military aggression) Japan, and China and Russia being the other major powers and hostile. Instead of 2 peers in Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany.


You're missing the larger ideological conflict that was brewing in the interwar period. There were three ideological camps with conflicting and mutually exclusive ideologies: the liberal camp (headed by the US and UK), the fascist camp (headed by Nazi Germany), and the communist camp (headed by the USSR).Though these camps might have (and, at times, did) align for mutual short term games, they were always going to be at war with each other at some point. Aligning with the Nazis was simply never going to be an option for the US because the Nazis opposed so many critical and fundamental US policy goals. This is why there was never even a question as to whom the US would support when the war initially broke out in Europe. US arms, aid, and materiel went almost exclusively to the UK before Pearl Harbor, not to the Nazis.

And you're really missing the point if you think that all the US got out of WW2 was weaker allies to fight against communism. The US inherited a global empire. Huge swaths of the world became de facto American colonies almost overnight. The wealth that this generated for the US while most of the rest of the industrial world was in ruins was unprecedented. The current world order that we have today -- at which the US continues to be at the center -- is a direct result of that post-WW2 inheritance..
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24053 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-11-29 06:16:06
November 29 2018 06:12 GMT
#1800
On November 29 2018 14:57 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 29 2018 13:32 GreenHorizons wrote:
What would the US interest be if instead of Pearl Harbor we come to terms on how the world gets divided between the US, Germany, and Japan along with commitments from Japan and Germany to fight the people we ended up fighting once the war was "over"?

Basically all WWII did for us was give us weaker allies against communism than we would have had in Nazi Germany and Japan, neither being any real threat to us dominating the western hemisphere.

I suppose some prefer a submissive/fragmented Europe, a helpless (as far as military aggression) Japan, and China and Russia being the other major powers and hostile. Instead of 2 peers in Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany.


You're missing the larger ideological conflict that was brewing in the interwar period. There were three ideological camps with conflicting and mutually exclusive ideologies: the liberal camp (headed by the US and UK), the fascist camp (headed by Nazi Germany), and the communist camp (headed by the USSR).Though these camps might have (and, at times, did) align for mutual short term games, they were always going to be at war with each other at some point. Aligning with the Nazis was simply never going to be an option for the US because the Nazis opposed so many critical and fundamental US policy goals. This is why there was never even a question as to whom the US would support when the war initially broke out in Europe. US arms, aid, and materiel went almost exclusively to the UK before Pearl Harbor, not to the Nazis.

And you're really missing the point if you think that all the US got out of WW2 was weaker allies to fight against communism. The US inherited a global empire. Huge swaths of the world became de facto American colonies almost overnight. The wealth that this generated for the US while most of the rest of the industrial world was in ruins was unprecedented. The current world order that we have today -- at which the US continues to be at the center -- is a direct result of that post-WW2 inheritance..


I'm intrigued by what you perceive to be some of the key differences in USSR "communism" and Nazi "fascism" and their various policy goals that made aligning with the Nazis not an option but allying with Communists absolutely necessary?

As to the second part I think we're saying the same thing with different inflection.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
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