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On March 02 2014 05:57 mcc wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2014 04:25 Sub40APM wrote:
I guess Putin really wants Western Ukraine to join NATO as soon as possible. I feel bad for all those Eastern Ukrainians though, joining the ruble makes their industries even more worthless, going to be a lot more white laborers on Moscow's construction sites though. Eastern Ukrainian industry is already mostly orientated on the Russian market, how would any of that make it worse ?
(a) instead of hrivnya they will be part of the ruble zone, suffer from the same dutch disease as the rest of the russian economy
(b) since there is no longer a strategic interest to prop up these oligarchs in the East Ukraine, the bigger, Russian oligarchs who occupy the same industrial sector will simply take over those factories and have them shut down. Its already began with Victor Pinchuk, the son in law of the former President Kuchma. Its going to happen to the rest of them too.
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On March 02 2014 05:58 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2014 05:56 PaleMan wrote:
some sources claim China will fully support Russia in UN Could you post your sources ? Show nested quote +On March 02 2014 05:57 Sub40APM wrote:On March 02 2014 05:53 Gorsameth wrote:On March 02 2014 05:47 darkness wrote:
Do you guys think that Mitt Romney would have done better in this situation? I dont know. Its imo impossible to tell. Esp with Romney. However.... Id almost wish Bush was around because he would not let Putin push the world around like this. Guess thats his one redeeming quality? :p He didnt do a good job of protecting Georgia -- even if we now know that Georgia started the war I think we can all agree that during the crisis the Americans did nothing beneficial. Ukraine is more important than Georgia though, it's right on the EU's doorstep.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1436220/chinas-peoples-daily-slams-wests-cold-war-mentality-over-ukraine
Not really a source that China will support in the UN, just that China does not like the western stance about Ukraine
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Just read the article. Nothing there says that China will support Russia in the UN. In fact it basically implies the opposite, that;
"China’s foreign ministry has said it will not interfere in what it considers an internal affair and that it respects the Ukrainian people’s decisions, adding that it would like to continue to develop “friendly cooperation” with the country."
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On March 02 2014 05:41 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2014 05:40 zeo wrote:On March 02 2014 05:38 Sub40APM wrote:Thats weird that the UN Security Council is having a hard time convening on the issue...and weirder still that glorious and innocent Russia wants the meeting closed and held in secret...thats so not like Russians, amiright guy who doesnt support Putin but is okay with this invasion because its legally permissible? Inside UNSC meeting on #Ukraine, US, UK & France push for open meeting, #Russia wants it closed; procedural banter - diplomats tell @reuters I'm sure Putin will get a Nobel Peace Prize after this, like leaders of other Security Council members get when they send troops to sovereign countries. You forgot to mention the drone attacks. That always works
Yeah, but Russia doesn't have them because of too much corruption in ministry of defence.
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On March 02 2014 05:29 Sub40APM wrote:Congratulations Russian bros and zeo, you have made Sarah Palin seem like a genius: Show nested quote +Sarah Palin feels vindicated as she posts on Facebook.
Yes, I could see this one from Alaska. I’m usually not one to Told-Ya-So, but I did, despite my accurate prediction being derided as “an extremely far-fetched scenario” by the “high-brow” Foreign Policy magazine. Here’s what this “stupid” “insipid woman” predicted back in 2008: “After the Russian Army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama’s reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence, the kind of response that would only encourage Russia’s Putin to invade Ukraine next.”
I think you have completely muddled yourself by associating all Russians with Putin and party, neo-fascists talks with propaganda and Russia with USSR.
With these moods as yours we will never listen to each other.
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On March 02 2014 06:06 AleXoundOS wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2014 05:29 Sub40APM wrote:Congratulations Russian bros and zeo, you have made Sarah Palin seem like a genius: Sarah Palin feels vindicated as she posts on Facebook.
Yes, I could see this one from Alaska. I’m usually not one to Told-Ya-So, but I did, despite my accurate prediction being derided as “an extremely far-fetched scenario” by the “high-brow” Foreign Policy magazine. Here’s what this “stupid” “insipid woman” predicted back in 2008: “After the Russian Army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama’s reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence, the kind of response that would only encourage Russia’s Putin to invade Ukraine next.” I think you have completely muddled yourself by associating all Russians with Putin and party, neo-fascists talks with propaganda and Russia with USSR. With these moods as yours we will never listen to each other.
What do you have to say? "Russia has legal right to invade" ? "Yanukovich is the president and should be restored"? Zeo is much more entertaining in explaining the Russian view.
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On March 02 2014 05:51 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2014 05:47 darkness wrote:
Do you guys think that Mitt Romney would have done better in this situation? No idea but I do think Obama holds back too much at the moment and the same goes for the EU. It's pretty clear now that Russia wants to expand its sphere of influence and that is not in our interest.
More like Russia wants to keep its sphere of influence. That is not in our interest either.
In the strategic sense the 'west' is the aggressor and Russia is defending whatever is left from its old empire.
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Canada13410 Posts
This whole thing is going way too fast.
One the one hand, Russia is taking a tactical decision. I mean there is civil unrest and a divided country in the Ukraine. They were seeking stronger economic ties to the country and its production/GDP etc etc.
So, now they see an opening and enter through the more ethnic russian crimea area, and chances are they are posturing with the intention of "peacekeeping" and will seek some sort of concession from the West as far as splitting the ukraine into two countries.
Now, this should be done through a national referendum after a public campaign of information regarding what secession means. However, this isn't the scenario we face here. We see Russia taking advantage of a weak and new government structure in Ukraine which they conveniently see as being illegitimate.
However, this same rhetoric and positioning was done by the US a few times in the past with regards to Syria's illegitimate government, however Russia is taking a more active role in impacting the potential civil war beyond simply instigating a no fly zone for example.
But whats interesting to me is how far Russia will go with their army positioning. I mean they could in all honestly just peacekeep and only fire when fired upon and prevent large military action against non militarized individuals.
But the ukraine government is also very new and does not have a solid support base but if they manage to mobilize against russia without talks on russia's role, then we could see some horrible stuff down the pipe.
I'm not saying Russia is doing good, I'm saying it feels like some sort of major miscommunication is happening here atm alongside a lack of stable government.
Not sure if Russia is posturing for concessions at the international level, or miscommunicating their intentions but I think both are just as likely and jumping to conclusions from either side of the debate could be disastrous.
Why is it taking so long for a security council meeting? Well all the nations need to gather information and make decisions on their positions and what concessions regarding this information they are able to make. Not only that but the five eyes nations need to consolidate their knowledge, and contribute, as well as all the other countries trying to gather their intelligence on other countries and the ukraine's internal situation.
Whenever the countries meet the representatives are likely briefed by their spy agencies and intelligence agencies and analysts etc.
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On March 02 2014 06:00 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2014 05:57 mcc wrote:On March 02 2014 04:25 Sub40APM wrote:
I guess Putin really wants Western Ukraine to join NATO as soon as possible. I feel bad for all those Eastern Ukrainians though, joining the ruble makes their industries even more worthless, going to be a lot more white laborers on Moscow's construction sites though. Eastern Ukrainian industry is already mostly orientated on the Russian market, how would any of that make it worse ? (a) instead of hrivnya they will be part of the ruble zone, suffer from the same dutch disease as the rest of the russian economy (b) since there is no longer a strategic interest to prop up these oligarchs in the East Ukraine, the bigger, Russian oligarchs who occupy the same industrial sector will simply take over those factories and have them shut down. Its already began with Victor Pinchuk, the son in law of the former President Kuchma. Its going to happen to the rest of them too.
Its not like Pintschuk bought kryworischstal just one jear before, for mere 800 M $ from the state, which is a joke considering the size. Additionally the take-back was done via court and (and least started) during reign of juschtschenko who came to power due to the western-influenced orange revolution. So not russia.
But you are still right, most Ukrainian Oligarchs obv don't want strong bounds/unification with Russia, coz their Oligarchs are just playing in a way higher league and gonna eat them alive.
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in the long run, there is no way around splitting up ukraine. when 80-90% percent of the people in one half of a country want one thing and 80-90% in the other half want the exact opposite, there is no other solution.
in the end, russia will come out as the big strategical winner of this whole conflict because it annects the resource- and industry-rich eastern half of ukraine while the west gets the poor, rural western part of the country that will turn out to be a liability.
btw i think it is perfectly reasonable and justified for russia to not want a NATO country next to its own border. overall, it would be the best solution if the ukraine declared its neutrality and signed a trilateral treaty with the NATO and russia, stating that it wont join either side, military-wise. but again, this path wont work because of how torn the country is.
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On March 02 2014 06:16 RolleMcKnolle wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2014 06:00 Sub40APM wrote:On March 02 2014 05:57 mcc wrote:On March 02 2014 04:25 Sub40APM wrote:
I guess Putin really wants Western Ukraine to join NATO as soon as possible. I feel bad for all those Eastern Ukrainians though, joining the ruble makes their industries even more worthless, going to be a lot more white laborers on Moscow's construction sites though. Eastern Ukrainian industry is already mostly orientated on the Russian market, how would any of that make it worse ? (a) instead of hrivnya they will be part of the ruble zone, suffer from the same dutch disease as the rest of the russian economy (b) since there is no longer a strategic interest to prop up these oligarchs in the East Ukraine, the bigger, Russian oligarchs who occupy the same industrial sector will simply take over those factories and have them shut down. Its already began with Victor Pinchuk, the son in law of the former President Kuchma. Its going to happen to the rest of them too. Its not like Pintschuk bought kryworischstal just one jear before, for mere 800 M $ from the state, which is a joke considering the size. Additionally the take-back was done via court and (and least started) during reign of juschtschenko who came to power due to the western-influenced orange revolution. So not russia. But you are still right, most Ukrainian Oligarchs obv don't want strong bounds/unification with Russia, coz their Oligarchs are just playing in a way higher league and gonna eat them alive. I am not talking about the steel mill they took away from him and sold for billions to foreign investors. I am talking about his current business, interpipe, where he used to provide pipelines into Russian economy but ever since his relevance to Putin has declined he has suddenly began facing massive difficulties in terms of finding a market for his pipes. Its in the progress of defaulting on its euro-denominated debt, if it hasnt technically already done so.
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Ukraine asks EU, US and NATO to look at all possible mechanisms for protecting its territorial integrity, foreign minister says - @Reuters
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On March 02 2014 05:51 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2014 05:47 darkness wrote:
Do you guys think that Mitt Romney would have done better in this situation? No idea but I do think Obama holds back too much at the moment and the same goes for the EU. It's pretty clear now that Russia wants to expand its sphere of influence and that is not in our interest. edit: The EU is acting spineless as well : Show nested quote +In a statement, French President Francois Hollande urged European countries to take swift and decisive action to find a way out of the crisis in Crimea when their foreign ministers meet in Brussels on Monday. I mean meeting on Monday what the fuck is that.... http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/01/ukraine-crisis-france-idUSL6N0LY0AW20140301
"that is not in our interest". I think it is a key to position of most posters in this thread. Everybody sees the situation through their geopolitical needs and just as an afterthought covers it in ethical clothes. Who cares about Ukrainians or Crimeans or Tatars. The important thing is that our side gets stronger and the "enemy" weaker.
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On March 02 2014 05:00 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2014 04:58 AleXoundOS wrote:On March 02 2014 04:47 Sub40APM wrote:On March 02 2014 04:45 AleXoundOS wrote:On March 02 2014 04:25 Saryph wrote:
Well I thought the Russians already had the military invasion handled pretty well. I was trying to point out that all of the pro-Russian activity going on lately isn't necessarily homegrown. You still think that thousands of people came to Ukraine, and Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Crimea areas support illegal authorities from Kiev? Oh no, that the clashes broke out only after the Olympics and Putin no longer had to pretend to be a nice guy is just pure coincidence, as is the escalation of violence after Russian rubber stamp parliament passed an authorization of invasion. Just many many coincidences. Lol, you think I support Putin or what? And there is no violence you mentioned by military forces yet. You didn't answer the question though. It's important because if you agree that the mentioned areas do not support the current situation in Kiev, many talks related to military intervention will be related to Putin only and not Russians. Oh no. You are a wholly independent thinking man who really hates Putin yet also maintains the party line because...fascists are everywhere.
Frankly you are about as biased as zeo, just the other way around. I know a lot of Russians that oppose Putin (to a point of some of them emigrating due to threats of arrests) and yet they also "maintain party line". Maybe it is because you see things through black-and-white glasses and all nuances miss you completely.
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On March 02 2014 06:17 Black Gun wrote:
in the long run, there is no way around splitting up ukraine. when 80-90% percent of the people in one half of a country want one thing and 80-90% in the other half want the exact opposite, there is no other solution.
in the end, russia will come out as the big strategical winner of this whole conflict because it annects the resource- and industry-rich eastern half of ukraine while the west gets the poor, rural western part of the country that will turn out to be a liability.
btw i think it is perfectly reasonable and justified for russia to not want a NATO country next to its own border. overall, it would be the best solution if the ukraine declared its neutrality and signed a trilateral treaty with the NATO and russia, stating that it wont join either side, military-wise. but again, this path wont work because of how torn the country is.
You mean like the trilateral treaty they signed when they got rid of there nuclear weapons?
yeah... Im sure they're eager for another piece of toilet paper.
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On March 02 2014 06:17 Black Gun wrote:
in the long run, there is no way around splitting up ukraine. when 80-90% percent of the people in one half of a country want one thing and 80-90% in the other half want the exact opposite, there is no other solution.
in the end, russia will come out as the big strategical winner of this whole conflict because it annects the resource- and industry-rich eastern half of ukraine while the west gets the poor, rural western part of the country that will turn out to be a liability.
btw i think it is perfectly reasonable and justified for russia to not want a NATO country next to its own border. overall, it would be the best solution if the ukraine declared its neutrality and signed a trilateral treaty with the NATO and russia, stating that it wont join either side, military-wise. but again, this path wont work because of how torn the country is.
Or Russia could stop being a paranoid prick, and just be decent and good instead.
We should send in peacekeepers; if Russia says the troops on the ground aren't theirs (yeah we know it's a lie, but if that's what they going with...) then there are large armed bands roaming around the country that have no legal basis to be doing so, which is reason enough to send in peacekeepers to deal with them.
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On March 02 2014 06:19 mcc wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2014 05:51 RvB wrote:On March 02 2014 05:47 darkness wrote:
Do you guys think that Mitt Romney would have done better in this situation? No idea but I do think Obama holds back too much at the moment and the same goes for the EU. It's pretty clear now that Russia wants to expand its sphere of influence and that is not in our interest. edit: The EU is acting spineless as well : In a statement, French President Francois Hollande urged European countries to take swift and decisive action to find a way out of the crisis in Crimea when their foreign ministers meet in Brussels on Monday. I mean meeting on Monday what the fuck is that.... http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/01/ukraine-crisis-france-idUSL6N0LY0AW20140301 "that is not in our interest". I think it is a key to position of most posters in this thread. Everybody sees the situation through their geopolitical needs and just as an afterthought covers it in ethical clothes. Who cares about Ukrainians or Crimeans or Tatars. The important thing is that our side gets stronger and the "enemy" weaker.
I would have no problem with East Ukraine splitting from the west if the population decided that.
The issue is that Russia seems to be forcing that split right now.
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On March 02 2014 06:08 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2014 06:06 AleXoundOS wrote:On March 02 2014 05:29 Sub40APM wrote:Congratulations Russian bros and zeo, you have made Sarah Palin seem like a genius: Sarah Palin feels vindicated as she posts on Facebook.
Yes, I could see this one from Alaska. I’m usually not one to Told-Ya-So, but I did, despite my accurate prediction being derided as “an extremely far-fetched scenario” by the “high-brow” Foreign Policy magazine. Here’s what this “stupid” “insipid woman” predicted back in 2008: “After the Russian Army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama’s reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence, the kind of response that would only encourage Russia’s Putin to invade Ukraine next.” I think you have completely muddled yourself by associating all Russians with Putin and party, neo-fascists talks with propaganda and Russia with USSR. With these moods as yours we will never listen to each other. What do you have to say? "Russia has legal right to invade" ? "Yanukovich is the president and should be restored"? Zeo is much more entertaining in explaining the Russian view.
Where did I say that? It's your conclusions based on your ideas about Russians?
Russia has no legal right to invade and Yanukovich is the president only in terms of Ukrainian laws, not for all world, and he will not be restored.
I'm not explaining Russian view, and there are enough facts to say more exact things other than views.
How do you associate my messages with your conclusions... Me, saying that big parts of Ukraine do not acknowledge Maidan automatically gives rights for Putin to invade? Is this your logic?
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On March 02 2014 06:19 mcc wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2014 05:51 RvB wrote:On March 02 2014 05:47 darkness wrote:
Do you guys think that Mitt Romney would have done better in this situation? No idea but I do think Obama holds back too much at the moment and the same goes for the EU. It's pretty clear now that Russia wants to expand its sphere of influence and that is not in our interest. edit: The EU is acting spineless as well : In a statement, French President Francois Hollande urged European countries to take swift and decisive action to find a way out of the crisis in Crimea when their foreign ministers meet in Brussels on Monday. I mean meeting on Monday what the fuck is that.... http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/01/ukraine-crisis-france-idUSL6N0LY0AW20140301 "that is not in our interest". I think it is a key to position of most posters in this thread. Everybody sees the situation through their geopolitical needs and just as an afterthought covers it in ethical clothes. Who cares about Ukrainians or Crimeans or Tatars. The important thing is that our side gets stronger and the "enemy" weaker.
Not reallty, I'm convinced the EU is the best way to go for Ukraine in the long run.
Like Sub40apm said:
(a) instead of hrivnya they will be part of the ruble zone, suffer from the same dutch disease as the rest of the russian economy
(b) since there is no longer a strategic interest to prop up these oligarchs in the East Ukraine, the bigger, Russian oligarchs who occupy the same industrial sector will simply take over those factories and have them shut down. Its already began with Victor Pinchuk, the son in law of the former President Kuchma. Its going to happen to the rest of them too.
At least help from the west will give the country a chance to develop their economy and democracy in a good way which will never happen with Russia.
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EPT
