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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 6141

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
November 09 2016 18:02 GMT
#122801
The exit polls cited here suggest that late deciders really went for Trump. That seems mostly consistent with what we've seen.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
November 09 2016 18:02 GMT
#122802
On November 10 2016 03:01 boon2537 wrote:
US stocks doesn't take a dive at all. I really can't predict the market :/

industry lobbies taking your policy orders
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
BronzeKnee
Profile Joined March 2011
United States5226 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-09 18:03:55
November 09 2016 18:02 GMT
#122803
On November 10 2016 03:01 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 10 2016 02:58 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Trump already backed off the building of a Wall with Mexico including backing off getting Mexico to pay for it.

I think he talked it down for the sake of the election, but his supporters are going to hold him to building it. He's already going to be walking back a lot of other things ("LOCK HER UP!!!!"), so he better build the wall.


Yeah this is a really interesting time in American politics.

Either he walks back a lot of things he said he would do, or his Presidency could careen from one crisis to another.

Trying to jail Clinton and build a wall might be the most unproductive things any President began their first term with.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
November 09 2016 18:04 GMT
#122804
On November 10 2016 02:27 xDaunt wrote:
The Democrats aren't yet ready to select a new leader. They're going to need a few months to sort their shit out internally and groom new leadership.

They better clean house in the DNC. New leadership for sure, but also a new cyber security team that won't make them support the most electable candidate and history and look like fools when the evil Russians leak it.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-09 18:04:57
November 09 2016 18:04 GMT
#122805
On November 10 2016 03:02 BronzeKnee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 10 2016 03:01 xDaunt wrote:
On November 10 2016 02:58 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Trump already backed off the building of a Wall with Mexico including backing off getting Mexico to pay for it.

I think he talked it down for the sake of the election, but his supporters are going to hold him to building it. He's already going to be walking back a lot of other things ("LOCK HER UP!!!!"), so he better build the wall.


Yeah this is a really interesting time in American politics.

Either he walks back a lot of things he said he would do, or his Presidency will careen from one crisis to another.


Why not both?

(seriously, it will probably be both)

It will be interesting to see what he does walk back when/if he does. Is it the things he was forced to say by the GOP or his own gut feelings and gibberish policies.
Mysticesper
Profile Joined January 2011
United States1183 Posts
November 09 2016 18:05 GMT
#122806
trump will probably elect a conservative judge.

but i doubt he will pursue anti lgbt / abortion stuff, since that was his major criticism prior to running, so he had to pander to the religious right.
MyLovelyLurker
Profile Joined April 2007
France756 Posts
November 09 2016 18:05 GMT
#122807
On November 10 2016 02:41 oneofthem wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 10 2016 02:39 Piledriver wrote:
On November 10 2016 02:30 oneofthem wrote:
On November 10 2016 02:29 travis wrote:
On November 10 2016 02:25 oneofthem wrote:
On November 10 2016 02:20 Jormundr wrote:
On November 10 2016 02:04 oneofthem wrote:
On November 10 2016 01:59 Mohdoo wrote:
On November 10 2016 01:55 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Now Obama appoint Sanders as the DNC Chair and get the fuck out of the way so he can start rebuilding.


Seriously. We need populism. People are focusing on the wrong part of Bernie. Bernie was really distinguished from Clinton from a left/far-left perspective, but that's not why Bernie crushed Clinton in Wisconsin. He crushed her in Wisconsin because he reached out to underemployed whites. He told them he would defend them and that the corporate/political elite were stealing from them. That got them to back Bernie and it is why Bernie crushed Clinton. Clinton adopting all the liberal parts of Bernie's platform without the direct protectionist populism was missing the point. This election had nothing to do with left vs right. It was populism vs the elite.

my spin is it was about irresponsible but gratifying politics vs sensible politics. the irrationality and emotions won out.


Your message is that we have to eat shit because that's the way things are. That is why Hillary lost. Your definition of sensible assumes that only wealthy people are important. That definition used to be true, but in the information age that hubris is easily exploited. It is in no way unreasonable to think that massive change can be achieved if desired. The problem is that Hillary could not even acknowledge that the working and middle classes are in the worst position they've ever been as a result of years of the same half measures she proposes.

what exactly is your policy scenario here? pretty curious. what does a 'not eat shit' plan look like.



making the rich pay their fair share of taxes, increased social program funding (moving towards greater socialization in general), holding the elite accountable for their actions to (for the most part) the same standards as everyone else, putting limits on lobbying and curbing corruption. I think actually trying to do these things would be a good start.

this is the thing, these are all part of the HRC plan. what else


Honest question : did you actually expect HRC to do any of these things aside from pay token lip service? She was too deeply in bed with Wall Street to have any modicum of credibility, and her refusal to release her paid speeches pretty much solidified that notion. The optics of the email scandal was magnified in part by her own mishandling of the issue, and did not help with her credibility problem either.

Trump not releasing his tax returns turned out to be much less of an issue because almost everyone identifies with finding every possible way to reduce their tax burdens. I'm not saying it is right - it just happened to be the way things played out.

she has been working on these issues for decades. her staff and policy team have been working on these issues for decades.

you don't just witch hunt someone for speaking at a core financial institution. especially when you already know what was being said and why.


It's not like Trump's Treasury nominee is a former Goldman partner either. What's the difference then really ?
"I just say, it doesn't matter win or lose, I just love Starcraft 2, I love this game, I love this stage, just play like in practice" - TIME/Oliveira
Logo
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States7542 Posts
November 09 2016 18:05 GMT
#122808
On November 10 2016 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
The exit polls cited here suggest that late deciders really went for Trump. That seems mostly consistent with what we've seen.


Which really does lead to the question of how much of that is Comey's doing.

While I think the race would always be closer than people would want (given the working vote in rural areas), the whole election really seems just like an arbitrary happenstance where because Clinton was most recently in the news and Trump lost access to Twitter Trump wins. Put the election 2 weeks out or 2 weeks earlier and it probably would have been in a Clinton bubble for the win.
Logo
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1416 Posts
November 09 2016 18:06 GMT
#122809
So many jobs will be created by building that wall,just imagine all construction workers needed. Maybe they even have to bring in immigrants from mexico to build it. When you gonna build it anyway then might as well do it as cheap as possible. It will become a first class tourist attraction,much like the berlin wall was. Decades from now people will tell eachoter storys about the great wall of America and maybe in the far future people will bring down the wall again with sledge hammers and pick axes.it will become a landmark moment in American history.

I can not wait,ha ha.
BronzeKnee
Profile Joined March 2011
United States5226 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-09 18:07:26
November 09 2016 18:06 GMT
#122810
On November 10 2016 03:04 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 10 2016 03:02 BronzeKnee wrote:
On November 10 2016 03:01 xDaunt wrote:
On November 10 2016 02:58 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Trump already backed off the building of a Wall with Mexico including backing off getting Mexico to pay for it.

I think he talked it down for the sake of the election, but his supporters are going to hold him to building it. He's already going to be walking back a lot of other things ("LOCK HER UP!!!!"), so he better build the wall.


Yeah this is a really interesting time in American politics.

Either he walks back a lot of things he said he would do, or his Presidency will careen from one crisis to another.


Why not both?

(seriously, it will probably be both)

It will be interesting to see what he does walk back when/if he does. Is it the things he was forced to say by the GOP or his own gut feelings and gibberish policies.


Actually, you are probably correct.

But honestly, he will alienate his base in about 10 days if he doesn't try to jail her and build the wall. Those were the highlights of what he said at his rallies. And I attended one.
BigFan
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
TLADT24920 Posts
November 09 2016 18:07 GMT
#122811
On November 10 2016 02:44 Jormundr wrote:
Also this is probably the most realistic explanation of this election I've seen so far.
Point #3 hits very close to home.

extremely well written article. Recommend everyone to read it.
Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
November 09 2016 18:08 GMT
#122812
If anyone is wondering where I stand, as a Hillary voter who pulled no punches in criticizing her faults, I suppose all I can give is the "Putin response" to this sort of thing: I'm ready to work with either candidate being president, I like and dislike some things from both sides, and I just hope that what we have will be for the best.

At this point no one knows what will happen. The country took a riskier choice than I was prepared to make myself, but I'll live with it and hope for the best.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1416 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-09 18:10:41
November 09 2016 18:08 GMT
#122813
I was worried that the republicans would not be able to get a judge,as I don't see any reasons for the democrats to cooperate now after the republicans denied the democrats what was essentially their choice. But maybe the republicans wont need any democratic support for this.
TheYango
Profile Joined September 2008
United States47024 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-09 18:10:18
November 09 2016 18:08 GMT
#122814
On November 10 2016 03:05 Mysticesper wrote:
trump will probably elect a conservative judge.

but i doubt he will pursue anti lgbt / abortion stuff, since that was his major criticism prior to running, so he had to pander to the religious right.

The concern isn't that he will pursue it, but that he doesn't care enough to stop the rest of the Republican party form pursuing it (who will pursue it far more vehemently).

On November 10 2016 03:08 LegalLord wrote:
At this point no one knows what will happen. The country took a riskier choice than I was prepared to make myself, but I'll live with it and hope for the best.

This.

I'm not happy with the result, but I'm not going to get in on the doomsaying that everyone else has started. The only way we can go is forward, so let's make the best of it.
Moderator
MyLovelyLurker
Profile Joined April 2007
France756 Posts
November 09 2016 18:09 GMT
#122815
On November 10 2016 03:01 boon2537 wrote:
US stocks doesn't take a dive at all. I really can't predict the market :/


Looks from quite a few indicators ( put/call ratio, VIX spot wayyyy overbought to futures ) that last week's dip was basically people already cutting their exposures and hedging into the event. When the market sees it coming the impact is less. Volumes today are not indicative of the kind of capitulation you usually see on unforeseen events.
"I just say, it doesn't matter win or lose, I just love Starcraft 2, I love this game, I love this stage, just play like in practice" - TIME/Oliveira
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1416 Posts
November 09 2016 18:09 GMT
#122816
On November 10 2016 03:07 BigFan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 10 2016 02:44 Jormundr wrote:
Also this is probably the most realistic explanation of this election I've seen so far.
Point #3 hits very close to home.

extremely well written article. Recommend everyone to read it.



yes that was an interesting read indeed,thx for link.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
November 09 2016 18:09 GMT
#122817
[image loading]

seems like not a policy election, but a character election in which policies are proxy for character perceptions.

i'd say the "it's the internet media" thesis is doing well here.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
Logo
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States7542 Posts
November 09 2016 18:09 GMT
#122818
On November 10 2016 03:06 BronzeKnee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 10 2016 03:04 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On November 10 2016 03:02 BronzeKnee wrote:
On November 10 2016 03:01 xDaunt wrote:
On November 10 2016 02:58 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Trump already backed off the building of a Wall with Mexico including backing off getting Mexico to pay for it.

I think he talked it down for the sake of the election, but his supporters are going to hold him to building it. He's already going to be walking back a lot of other things ("LOCK HER UP!!!!"), so he better build the wall.


Yeah this is a really interesting time in American politics.

Either he walks back a lot of things he said he would do, or his Presidency will careen from one crisis to another.


Why not both?

(seriously, it will probably be both)

It will be interesting to see what he does walk back when/if he does. Is it the things he was forced to say by the GOP or his own gut feelings and gibberish policies.


Actually, you are probably correct.

But honestly, he will alienate his base in about 10 days if he doesn't try to jail her and build the wall. Those were the highlights of what he said at his rallies. And I attended one.


I think you are giving way way too much credit to the ability of Trump's base to continue caring after 2 months of no real news. Without the daily flood of media coverage, big rallies, and Clinton scandals you're probably going to see them drift apart. The party is over, there's nothing to be constantly angry about anymore.
Logo
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
November 09 2016 18:09 GMT
#122819
On November 10 2016 03:08 pmh wrote:
I was worried that the republicans would not be able to get a judge,as I don't see any reasons for the democrats to cooperate now,after the republicans denied the democrats what was essentially their choice. But maybe the republicans wont need any democratic support for this.

I hope Trump just retains Garland. He seems reasonable enough for both sides to be ok with him. And Trump used to be a Democrat at that.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
ChristianS
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3304 Posts
November 09 2016 18:10 GMT
#122820
Now the question is, is Donald Trump a shrewd political operative or a true believer? He said he wanted to do a lot of stuff that sounds really scary. Does he really wanna do that stuff? Or was he just saying that to get elected?
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." -Robert J. Hanlon
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