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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 5866

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
November 02 2016 03:20 GMT
#117301
clinton
pro: hardworking, experienced, etc.
con: relies on focus groups and strategists too much

trump
pro: drove attention to a segment of america that's been left behind
con: is trump
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
hunts
Profile Joined September 2010
United States2113 Posts
November 02 2016 03:22 GMT
#117302
On November 02 2016 12:18 xDaunt wrote:
Quick, somewhat OT, question for y'all: what's the likelihood that the residential real estate market shits itself on a national level over the next six-twelve months, and does the victory of Trump or Hillary alter that likelihood?


That might depend. I predict if either trump wins, or if Hillary wins and trumpkins decide to revolt it will go down. If Hillary wins and trumpkins accept the defeat, I doubt it will change much.
twitch.tv/huntstv 7x legend streamer
Jibba
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States22883 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-02 03:25:44
November 02 2016 03:22 GMT
#117303
On November 02 2016 12:19 oneofthem wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 02 2016 12:18 Jibba wrote:
Remember the good old days when we used to talk about Keynesian vs. Neo-classical vs. Austrian economics?

Whatever happened to that? Now all I see are emotional arguments for protectionism. That's by far my biggest disappointment with Hillary - abandoning support for the TPP.

yes, but it is barry's job to pass it. her lack of...conviction? to argue for her actual politics is troubling tho

It's a key leg of her Asia pivot, to improve our influence in SE Asia against China. It's Obama's to pass, but she deserves credit for it. The TPP is a geopolitical tool, as well as an economic driver, and it's a smart one, even though she doesn't want to be associated with it anymore.

More than that, even if you can make a fair argument against polarization, people are now talking about global trade as if it's a zero sum game. Trump talks about "winning" trade deals. That's ridiculous, and antithetical to (what used to be) core Republican values.

I seriously miss Ron Paul supporters.
ModeratorNow I'm distant, dark in this anthrobeat
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
November 02 2016 03:23 GMT
#117304
Let's just say that this election, the economy is just about the least of our concerns. That's how bad things got.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
November 02 2016 03:25 GMT
#117305
i can see some problems with the "luxury" apartment/ condo segment b/c its stupid overbuilt by developers trying to charge a ouple hundred bucks for crown molding and granite countertops, but i feel like the rest are probably pretty steady. maybe a trump presidency makes people put off the single family homes a bit, which would bump up the apartment market a little. either way wouldnt put $$$ in REIT's right now.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
November 02 2016 03:31 GMT
#117306
On November 02 2016 12:25 ticklishmusic wrote:
i can see some problems with the "luxury" apartment/ condo segment b/c its stupid overbuilt by developers trying to charge a ouple hundred bucks for crown molding and granite countertops, but i feel like the rest are probably pretty steady. maybe a trump presidency makes people put off the single family homes a bit, which would bump up the apartment market a little. either way wouldnt put $$$ in REIT's right now.

Yeah, I don't want to invest in real estate right now. Rents are starting to fall quickly out here in Colorado. What I am thinking about is whether I want to trade up house-wise.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
November 02 2016 03:31 GMT
#117307
On November 02 2016 12:22 Jibba wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 02 2016 12:19 oneofthem wrote:
On November 02 2016 12:18 Jibba wrote:
Remember the good old days when we used to talk about Keynesian vs. Neo-classical vs. Austrian economics?

Whatever happened to that? Now all I see are emotional arguments for protectionism. That's by far my biggest disappointment with Hillary - abandoning support for the TPP.

yes, but it is barry's job to pass it. her lack of...conviction? to argue for her actual politics is troubling tho

It's a key leg of her Asia pivot, to improve our influence in SE Asia against China. It's Obama's to pass, but she deserves credit for it. The TPP is a geopolitical tool, as well as an economic driver, and it's a smart one, even though she doesn't want to be associated with it anymore.

More than that, even if you can make a fair argument against polarization, people are now talking about global trade as if it's a zero sum game. Trump talks about "winning" trade deals. That's ridiculous, and antithetical to (what used to be) core Republican values.

I seriously miss Ron Paul supporters.

nothing would make me miss paultards

User was warned for this post
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
November 02 2016 03:32 GMT
#117308
On November 02 2016 12:18 xDaunt wrote:
Quick, somewhat OT, question for y'all: what's the likelihood that the residential real estate market shits itself on a national level over the next six-twelve months, and does the victory of Trump or Hillary alter that likelihood?

i doubt residential real estate will be much affected on the whole by the election.
I don't think either has policies relating to housing that would be done in that time frame.

there has been concern for some time that we might be due for another recession, and economic indicators are weird.
who knows when the next one'll happen though; iirc there's some indicators that precede the recession, but I forget what they are.

markets in general hate uncertainty, and trump victory is high uncertainty.

Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Jibba
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States22883 Posts
November 02 2016 03:32 GMT
#117309
On November 02 2016 12:18 xDaunt wrote:
Quick, somewhat OT, question for y'all: what's the likelihood that the residential real estate market shits itself on a national level over the next six-twelve months, and does the victory of Trump or Hillary alter that likelihood?

I'm not sure if it'll shit itself, but FWIW we're heading towards another recession soon. It should be much less severe than the last one, however.
ModeratorNow I'm distant, dark in this anthrobeat
Falling
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
Canada11370 Posts
November 02 2016 03:35 GMT
#117310
On November 02 2016 12:31 oneofthem wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 02 2016 12:22 Jibba wrote:
On November 02 2016 12:19 oneofthem wrote:
On November 02 2016 12:18 Jibba wrote:
Remember the good old days when we used to talk about Keynesian vs. Neo-classical vs. Austrian economics?

Whatever happened to that? Now all I see are emotional arguments for protectionism. That's by far my biggest disappointment with Hillary - abandoning support for the TPP.

yes, but it is barry's job to pass it. her lack of...conviction? to argue for her actual politics is troubling tho

It's a key leg of her Asia pivot, to improve our influence in SE Asia against China. It's Obama's to pass, but she deserves credit for it. The TPP is a geopolitical tool, as well as an economic driver, and it's a smart one, even though she doesn't want to be associated with it anymore.

More than that, even if you can make a fair argument against polarization, people are now talking about global trade as if it's a zero sum game. Trump talks about "winning" trade deals. That's ridiculous, and antithetical to (what used to be) core Republican values.

I seriously miss Ron Paul supporters.

nothing would make me miss paultards

Good thing for you that he is not in the race, or I'd ban you for the above.
Moderator"In Trump We Trust," says the Golden Goat of Mars Lago. Have faith and believe! Trump moves in mysterious ways. Like the wind he blows where he pleases...
GGTeMpLaR
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
United States7226 Posts
November 02 2016 03:44 GMT
#117311
Should warn him anyways because it's breaking rules per the OP and modnote
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
November 02 2016 03:52 GMT
#117312
lol this is some rich stuff, pc language!
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43248 Posts
November 02 2016 03:58 GMT
#117313
On November 02 2016 12:18 xDaunt wrote:
Quick, somewhat OT, question for y'all: what's the likelihood that the residential real estate market shits itself on a national level over the next six-twelve months, and does the victory of Trump or Hillary alter that likelihood?

Anyone who tells you the answer to this with any real conviction is either full of shit or Nettles. If Nettles say it'll definitely happen then I'd bet against it. #buygold

Part of the problem with this is that markets are inherently irrational. Even if you knew the "true" value of every stock, bond and option that'd still not be enough to predict them because you also need to know how everyone else values them, and that's pure chaos. Nettles could be completely right about all the fundamentals that he keeps talking about but if belief in the market keeps growing then a reduction in the underlying value isn't going to necessarily lead to an immediate crash.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Dismay
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States1180 Posts
November 02 2016 04:01 GMT
#117314
Is the TPP still shit for the 'net?
In every age, in every place, the deeds of men remain the same.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
November 02 2016 04:03 GMT
#117315
On November 02 2016 13:01 Dismay wrote:
Is the TPP still shit for the 'net?

Shitter than shit. But it just hasn't come up in recent times.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Falling
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
Canada11370 Posts
November 02 2016 04:05 GMT
#117316
On November 02 2016 12:52 oneofthem wrote:
lol this is some rich stuff, pc language!

Screw PC language. This has to do with keeping TL away from bottom dregs of news sites' political comment sections. I feel like this election I have largely failed, but we can at least steer clear of stupid and petty insults.
Moderator"In Trump We Trust," says the Golden Goat of Mars Lago. Have faith and believe! Trump moves in mysterious ways. Like the wind he blows where he pleases...
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-02 04:09:20
November 02 2016 04:05 GMT
#117317
my sense is that real estate is so highly localized that stuff on the national level really isnt too helpful except for making buy/sell decisions for REITs and other real estate-related securities. maybe just get a free session with a realtor if you're serious-ish, or look at one of those intro seminars with food and stuff. i forget what the name of the co was, something with the color red.

speaking apolitically for a moment, i dont think a trump victory is really fully priced in. if he gets to 40%ish or so - then that'll be a good buying opportunity. though if you're looking for a house, i doubt you could get things closed that quick on something you like w/o regrets.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23473 Posts
November 02 2016 04:19 GMT
#117318
On November 02 2016 13:05 ticklishmusic wrote:
my sense is that real estate is so highly localized that stuff on the national level really isnt too helpful except for making buy/sell decisions for REITs and other real estate-related securities. maybe just get a free session with a realtor if you're serious-ish, or look at one of those intro seminars with food and stuff. i forget what the name of the co was, something with the color red.

speaking apolitically for a moment, i dont think a trump victory is really fully priced in. if he gets to 40%ish or so - then that'll be a good buying opportunity. though if you're looking for a house, i doubt you could get things closed that quick on something you like w/o regrets.


The bold is right.

I wouldn't bother talking to a REALTOR unless you're looking into being convinced into selling/buying though. People thinking they are getting advice based on their own self-interest from a REALTOR are getting duped the vast majority of the time.



"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
November 02 2016 04:23 GMT
#117319
Well, you gotta find a good realtor who is actually going to give you impartial advice, but yes, otherwise you're just going to pressured to put yourself into the meatgrinder. And yes, there are significant local components to real estate price, but prices also correlate with larger economic downturns that occur at a national level.
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14047 Posts
November 02 2016 04:27 GMT
#117320
Local libraries keep copies of local newspapers which should have records on for closures and crimes. At least for small more rural cities. That's your best bet to get indicators on the local housing market. I don't know about cities but the larger cities should have records for the same thing somewhere for people.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
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