|
Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
United States42609 Posts
On October 29 2016 10:12 biology]major wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2016 10:10 KwarK wrote:On October 29 2016 10:06 Adreme wrote:On October 29 2016 10:03 biology]major wrote:On October 29 2016 10:00 Adreme wrote:On October 29 2016 09:57 biology]major wrote:On October 29 2016 09:56 KwarK wrote:On October 29 2016 09:54 biology]major wrote:
Trumps path to victory is still narrow as fuck, but this gives him an opening. That 4 minute press conference is exactly why she is so disliked in the first place, and it's only going to continue when she is president. Someone find trump and chain him up for the next 11 days, let Conway campaign for him in the mean time. Which state does he flip, in addition to the six closely contested ones? PA? CO? NH? NH, Maine, maybe Colorado Maine isnt in play, 1 district in Maine is in play because they allocate proportionally and that 1 electoral college vote does not help. Colorado and NH are REALLY hard to flip. NH is an interesting bet but the problem is she is up about 6-8 points there and not a lot of undecided so he needs to move the needle a LOT in 10 days to do it there and the situation in CO is if anything worse. That one red neck electoral vote from Maine is actually necessary for him if he flips NH, he would be at 269 if he got NH and didn't get that Maine district if I recall right. 269 is what he needs to win. She needs 270 but the house is pretty rigged so it isnt going to flip so he wins at 269. I havnt checked to see if your math is right but if he needs that district to hit 270 it does not matter. His math checks out. Play with this tool for a bit. http://www.270towin.com/There's no path that doesn't involve flipping a Hillary "safe" states and the states that people typically like to say Trump will flip are less competitive in this election than Texas. Imagine if people were saying "Hillary can still win this, once she flips Texas it'll blow the race wide open". That's basically the Trump party line right now, although it's PA rather than TX that he's going allin on. Yeah it's probably like a 5 percent shot because he has to win every single competitive state and then flip one or two more on top of that. I wonder what percent of the population already voted and thus completely immune to this FBI news. Comey found out yesterday so I'm not gonna blame him for not reopening sooner.
I think you've overestimating the number of undecideds who will care about this anyway. The "Trump is basically Hitler" crowd, they're not changing their votes. The people who will cheer the loudest for this news are the "Hillary for prison" crowd and they're already voting Trump. But I don't think giving him a 5% shot is unreasonable, it'd rely on all the polls being wrong, and all wrong in the same direction, but we can never rule out systematic failure I guess.
|
On October 29 2016 10:15 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2016 10:12 biology]major wrote:On October 29 2016 10:10 KwarK wrote:On October 29 2016 10:06 Adreme wrote:On October 29 2016 10:03 biology]major wrote:On October 29 2016 10:00 Adreme wrote:On October 29 2016 09:57 biology]major wrote:On October 29 2016 09:56 KwarK wrote:On October 29 2016 09:54 biology]major wrote:
Trumps path to victory is still narrow as fuck, but this gives him an opening. That 4 minute press conference is exactly why she is so disliked in the first place, and it's only going to continue when she is president. Someone find trump and chain him up for the next 11 days, let Conway campaign for him in the mean time. Which state does he flip, in addition to the six closely contested ones? PA? CO? NH? NH, Maine, maybe Colorado Maine isnt in play, 1 district in Maine is in play because they allocate proportionally and that 1 electoral college vote does not help. Colorado and NH are REALLY hard to flip. NH is an interesting bet but the problem is she is up about 6-8 points there and not a lot of undecided so he needs to move the needle a LOT in 10 days to do it there and the situation in CO is if anything worse. That one red neck electoral vote from Maine is actually necessary for him if he flips NH, he would be at 269 if he got NH and didn't get that Maine district if I recall right. 269 is what he needs to win. She needs 270 but the house is pretty rigged so it isnt going to flip so he wins at 269. I havnt checked to see if your math is right but if he needs that district to hit 270 it does not matter. His math checks out. Play with this tool for a bit. http://www.270towin.com/There's no path that doesn't involve flipping a Hillary "safe" states and the states that people typically like to say Trump will flip are less competitive in this election than Texas. Imagine if people were saying "Hillary can still win this, once she flips Texas it'll blow the race wide open". That's basically the Trump party line right now, although it's PA rather than TX that he's going allin on. Yeah it's probably like a 5 percent shot because he has to win every single competitive state and then flip one or two more on top of that. I wonder what percent of the population already voted and thus completely immune to this FBI news. Comey found out yesterday so I'm not gonna blame him for not reopening sooner. I think you've overestimating the number of undecideds who will care about this anyway. The "Trump is basically Hitler" crowd, they're not changing their votes. The people who will cheer the loudest for this news are the "Hillary for prison" crowd and they're already voting Trump. But I don't think giving him a 5% shot is unreasonable, it'd rely on all the polls being wrong, and all wrong in the same direction, but we can never rule out systematic failure I guess.
The impact of Obamacare in the different states might also be a factor. Arizona is getting the highest increase in premiums also so that might revert it back to being red.
|
On October 29 2016 09:57 biology]major wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2016 09:56 KwarK wrote:On October 29 2016 09:54 biology]major wrote:
Trumps path to victory is still narrow as fuck, but this gives him an opening. That 4 minute press conference is exactly why she is so disliked in the first place, and it's only going to continue when she is president. Someone find trump and chain him up for the next 11 days, let Conway campaign for him in the mean time. Which state does he flip, in addition to the six closely contested ones? PA? CO? NH? NH, Maine, maybe Colorado
None of those states have shown a single poll with Trump ahead for a long time.
By far the most likely scenario is where Trump pulls the race close nationally but still loses all of the important swing states. Let's remember that he has basically 0% chance to win without Florida, and even if he does win Florida, Clinton has a significant chance of still winning.
|
On October 29 2016 10:22 Stratos_speAr wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2016 09:57 biology]major wrote:On October 29 2016 09:56 KwarK wrote:On October 29 2016 09:54 biology]major wrote:
Trumps path to victory is still narrow as fuck, but this gives him an opening. That 4 minute press conference is exactly why she is so disliked in the first place, and it's only going to continue when she is president. Someone find trump and chain him up for the next 11 days, let Conway campaign for him in the mean time. Which state does he flip, in addition to the six closely contested ones? PA? CO? NH? NH, Maine, maybe Colorado None of those states have shown a single poll with Trump ahead for a long time. By far the most likely scenario is where Trump pulls the race close nationally but still loses all of the important swing states. Let's remember that he has basically 0% chance to win without Florida, and even if he does win Florida, Clinton has a significant chance of still winning.
It's called a dream for a reason, none of this shit is likely. But with Obamacare and now Comey, the dream is still alive.
|
if anything, i feel like there's a handful of people that might even move in clinton's direction. they were tired of emails before, and this latest residual bubble of swamp gas might be what convinces them clinton is clean enough to go for and that the opposition has literally no plan except to hope clinton implodes. but the net net of people shifting their votes around is hard to really guess, so pure speculation.
|
On October 29 2016 10:06 biology]major wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2016 10:05 Blisse wrote:On October 29 2016 10:02 biology]major wrote:On October 29 2016 10:00 Blisse wrote:On October 29 2016 09:54 biology]major wrote:
Trumps path to victory is still narrow as fuck, but this gives him an opening. That 4 minute press conference is exactly why she is so disliked in the first place, and it's only going to continue when she is president. Someone find trump and chain him up for the next 11 days, let Conway campaign for him in the mean time. what was wrong with the press conference lol Might need to clear up those clinton goggles. It was 4 minutes. 2 minutes for her speech and then 2 minutes for not answering any questions in her usual fashion. That isn't how transparency looks. but you still haven't answered my question? transparency about what? About why huma didn't turn over that device if it had stuff related to investigation, and huma knows what's on them so she could tell HRC who could then clarify what it is Comey found. She dodged the classified emails question completely.
Huma didn't turn over the device because it was Anthony Weiner's laptop, which she occasionally used to send emails to Clinton. The original request was specifically for the email server and thumbdrives of work-related emails, not for every single device ever used to send an email to or from the server by anyone associated with Clinton. That's why they can't even check these emails without additional authorization-they're not from a device that fell under the original subpoena.
It's theoretically possible there are new emails accessible through this laptop that were deleted under the personal email umbrella they want to look at. But I think it's pretty unlikely Clinton had her aide use her husband's laptop to send super secret "how I betrayed America" emails, which is why I don't really see this ending up anywhere.
This is all contingent on NBC being correct about the above, of course.
|
at some point some random staffer probably used a computer at a public library to log into their aol account to reply to something
like my company had to respond to a routine inquiry from the gov and part of it was getting the names of everyone who knew about something and when they were informed. between our company and a bunch of our outside advisors and vendors it was like 200+ people and there's a few names where we weren't able to get the info. we did the best we could, but stuff gets left out pretty much no matter what with these sort of big info requests and its not necessarily anyone trying to hide something.
|
If this is true it's even more absurd
|
United Kingdom13775 Posts
Almost as absurd as citing what someone twitted about what someone else twitted as a source.
|
On October 29 2016 09:43 KwarK wrote:
Does the fact that your predictions never actually come true matter to you? Or do you file those failures in a separate part of your brain to protect your fragile gold hoarding ego?
Aren't you from Britain?
You know that gold is up 45% in GBP terms this year right? Because of an event that very few on here predicted would happen.Trump predicted it.
America is twenty trillion in debt.Ten trillion has been added in the past eight years by Obama, or more than all previous presidents combined.Thats what it took to deliver the weakest economic performance since Hoover.First president since Hoover to not have at least one year 3% GDP growth.Debt is increasing exponentially for less and less return, It's not a conspiracy to suggest this will not end well.
|
On October 29 2016 11:12 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2016 09:43 KwarK wrote:
Does the fact that your predictions never actually come true matter to you? Or do you file those failures in a separate part of your brain to protect your fragile gold hoarding ego? Aren't you from Britain? You know that gold is up 45% in GBP terms this year right? Because of an event that very few on here predicted would happen.Trump predicted it. America is twenty trillion in debt.Ten trillion has been added in the past eight years by Obama, or more than all previous presidents combined.Thats what it took to deliver the weakest economic performance since Hoover.First president since Hoover to not have at least one year 3% GDP growth.Debt is increasing exponentially for less and less return, It's not a conspiracy to suggest this will not end well.
I mean, I've wondered for a while and just have to ask - why does an Australian even care about any of this? Not the election as a whole, I can understand that, but this level of interest in the American economic system has to be unusual.
Debt always being bad is a right wing talking point, btw. Too much is definitely bad, but there's disagreement as to where that level is. That's part of why the debt ceiling talk totally fell to the wayside (Trump not having the intellectual means to grasp basic math may have contributed a bit to it as well)
|
That makes so little sense that I think it's even beneath a federal agency.
|
New poll out in NH
Emerson
Clinton 46-43 Trump
|
I am reading a lot of stuff that might make this end poorly for Comey. It sounds like people within the FBI are ready to throw him under the bus and are pissed as hell.
|
|
|
|
|
United States42609 Posts
On October 29 2016 11:12 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2016 09:43 KwarK wrote:
Does the fact that your predictions never actually come true matter to you? Or do you file those failures in a separate part of your brain to protect your fragile gold hoarding ego? Aren't you from Britain? You know that gold is up 45% in GBP terms this year right?
So is every non Sterling currency when denominated in Sterling. What you're describing is called a drop in the pound. People know about this. You're not an idiot savant. Well, you're half of one I guess.
|
On October 29 2016 11:29 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
New poll out in NH
Emerson
Clinton 46-43 Trump
Ill break down that poll because it had a lot of interesting data in it.
First off it had one of lowest rates of undecideds of any poll I have seen in awhile with only 3% still undecided.
Second and very interesting is that it showed a massive drop in support for Jill Stein and Gary Johnson with both losing 4 points putting Johnson at 6% and Stein at 2%. Trump gained the most of this gaining 7% while Hilary only gained 2%. It is worth noting that she did not LOSE anything though which if he is going to finish in NH it looks like he will have to do since I cant see Johnson or Stein going much lower than that so the question how decided are those decideds.
|
On October 29 2016 11:27 oBlade wrote:That makes so little sense that I think it's even beneath a federal agency.
Actually, I don't think it's too weird that the FBI would review emails on a device uncovered in an unrelated investigation to double-check if any of them were missed in the initial pass-through-which would require getting additional authorization and notifying the committee. I think they would even send an identical letter, too...but at such a political time it seems odd not to hedge their phrasing further.
I don't think it's quite that simple, though.
|
On October 29 2016 11:36 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2016 11:12 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On October 29 2016 09:43 KwarK wrote:
Does the fact that your predictions never actually come true matter to you? Or do you file those failures in a separate part of your brain to protect your fragile gold hoarding ego? Aren't you from Britain? You know that gold is up 45% in GBP terms this year right? So is every non Sterling currency when denominated in Sterling. What you're describing is called a drop in the pound. People know about this. You're not an idiot savant. Well, you're half of one I guess.
What I am saying is if instead of holding fiat pounds you held physical gold you wouldn't have lost a large chunk of your wealth.The drop in USD terms is less, about half of what the drop of GBP in relation to gold is so far this year.You're laughing at me for investing in some gold as insurance but the people who had all their wealth in the bank are the real fools here.Simple concept.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
