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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
April 27 2016 18:08 GMT
#73801
Picking Fiorina makes little sense. I don't see the advantage that it gives Cruz at all. No one likes Fiorina, which is why she flopped hard during the primary.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15512 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-27 18:12:58
April 27 2016 18:10 GMT
#73802
On April 28 2016 02:59 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 27 2016 22:19 Mohdoo wrote:
On April 27 2016 22:14 Incognoto wrote:
He's only 300 delegates behind?

That's not a bad number.


He needs 64% of all remaining delegates. That's almost 2:1. Clinton is up in CA and that's only gonna get better after last night. Delegates are awarded proportionally. Bernie has already indirectly said he's not running to win at this point. Clinton's win in NY clearly took a giant Dump on Sandernista morale, as evidenced by CT. Last night's results are lights out for the shaky support he had. When you run a campaign fueled by such intense rhetoric, you need to be winning. Losing so badly, using Sanders' rhetoric, makes people lose confidence, as we've seen. Looks like we were right all along. In the end, he missed his mark by quite a bit.

Anyone looking for a morning laugh, I have got you covered:

https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/4gnyol/we_can_win_by_4060_pts_in_montana_north_dakota/


It is possible. We have the right candidate and the right message.
How is it possible? What's the path to victory? Obviously big wins, but how do those get achieved?
We need to make this exponential. If you do 50 calls for Bernie a day, that's amazing. If you can recruit 5 people to do 10 calls a day and get 2 of them to recruit another 5 etc then it'll rapidly swell to way more than you could ever do alone. If you talk to somebody enthusiastic about Bernie, get them involved.
Don't just spread the message. Spread the desire, spread the activism, get them to spend 20 minutes of their day getting Bernie elected. Make the west coast BERN like a wildfire.

Very few of the Democratic voters in the polls I worked at were under 30. There were a number of independents who did not know Maryland Primaries have same-day registration (and I ended up directing a number over to re-enroll and sign up for provisional ballots), but otherwise, the Bernie "demographic" did not show up at my polling place at all. That being said, Bernie was landslided in MD so it's to be expected.

In the under 30 crowd, I'd estimate there were more REP voters in the under 30 crowd than DEM voters, but the station I worked at was in a moderately Republican-slanted district.


This is what I figured would happen.

Anyone else remember how Sandernistas weren't just happy about Bernie's influence. They were sure he'd actually make it to the white house. "Polls have been wrong before" etc. A lot of the dream was that he would actually be president. After NY, I think a ton of enthusiasm dropped just from the fact that people don't like being on the losing side and they were really in it for the whole thing, not just making a stand.

And after the northeast? There is an overwhelming feeling that while he's a great guy, it's not that he's getting elected. Standing in line and being a part of the revolution only works if the revolution ever happens. But now, Bernie supporters are essentially in the same position as green party voters, where they are just voting for Bernie to send a message. They are not casting their vote with intent of him being president. That idea got shot in the head last night.

On April 28 2016 03:08 xDaunt wrote:
Picking Fiorina makes little sense. I don't see the advantage that it gives Cruz at all. No one likes Fiorina, which is why she flopped hard during the primary.


This is my confusion as well. Does Cruz actually think Clinton would have 5% without being female? Does he see Carly's gender as the secret weapon to take down Trump? It makes no sense.

Then again, who *could* he make VP to give him an edge? No one.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 27 2016 18:12 GMT
#73803
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-27 18:21:15
April 27 2016 18:20 GMT
#73804
I don't see why anyone would go out on a limb to endorse Cruz at this point. His campaign is going nowhere in the remaining primaries. He is not going to win a brokered convention because the GOP hates him at least as much as it hates Trump (plus I strongly suspect that Trump is going to win on the first ballot). Prominent republicans really have two options presently: stand pat until the convention or hop on the Trump train.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23073 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-27 18:21:52
April 27 2016 18:21 GMT
#73805
On how it ends up a brokered convention, neither candidate gets the pledged delegates needed and they make a case to the super delegates that Hillary has little to no support among independents and is not liked or trusted by a majority of Americans. So if they nominate her, instead of watching her lose a 60 point national lead to Bernie, they'll see her lose her small 10-15% lead she has over Trump after months of him pointing out any and all of her flaws with no mercy.

Hillary need something like 60% of pledged delegates left to clinch and she's unlikely to win much from here on out. Cali was tied in the last poll I saw also.

As it stands now, Trump is more likely to clinch than Hillary.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 27 2016 18:26 GMT
#73806
The bison, an animal once hunted to the brink of extinction in America, is set to become the first national mammal of the US, putting it on a par with the bald eagle as a symbol of the nation.

Congress has passed legislation, the National Bison Legacy Act, which names the hoofed beast as a “historical symbol of the United States” and establishes it as the nation’s landmark mammal.

Once the bipartisan move passes the Senate and receives Barack Obama’s sign-off, the bison will join the bald eagle, the national emblem since 1782, as America’s symbolic animal. America’s flora is represented by the oak, the national tree, and the rose, the national floral emblem.

The designation is a “milestone” in the effort to “prevent the bison from going extinct and to recognize the bison’s ecological, cultural, historical and economic importance to the United States”, said Cristian Samper, president of the Wildlife Conservation Society.

“The bison will serve as a great national symbol for the United States as it is as strong as the oak, fearless as the bald eagle and inspiring as a rose,” Samper added.

The honor doesn’t confer any new protections for the bison but represents a startling turnaround in the fortunes of the animal, also known more informally as the buffalo. The species was virtually wiped out in the 19th century as settlers moved west across America, slaughtering bison as they went.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
oBlade
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States5483 Posts
April 27 2016 18:27 GMT
#73807
On April 28 2016 02:52 Plansix wrote:
Apparently Trump wants to force other nations to pay for US security, which is super dumb and impossible to enforce. But it fails to address the fact that doing that will cause the nations to seek assistance from US rivals. Trump doesn’t seem to understand that the free market doesn’t dictated the relations between sovereign nations.

No, he wants them to pay for their own security.

And you tried really hard to wedge the "free market" meme in there after you just said essentially that US allies would make other arrangements if it was cheaper for them.
"I read it. You know how to read, you ignorant fuck?" - Andy Dufresne
On_Slaught
Profile Joined August 2008
United States12190 Posts
April 27 2016 18:34 GMT
#73808
On April 28 2016 03:27 oBlade wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2016 02:52 Plansix wrote:
Apparently Trump wants to force other nations to pay for US security, which is super dumb and impossible to enforce. But it fails to address the fact that doing that will cause the nations to seek assistance from US rivals. Trump doesn’t seem to understand that the free market doesn’t dictated the relations between sovereign nations.

No, he wants them to pay for their own security.

And you tried really hard to wedge the "free market" meme in there after you just said essentially that US allies would make other arrangements if it was cheaper for them.


Buying allies has been US policy for over a century. Usually better than letting them run to our possible advisaries.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21586 Posts
April 27 2016 18:35 GMT
#73809
On April 28 2016 03:21 GreenHorizons wrote:
On how it ends up a brokered convention, neither candidate gets the pledged delegates needed and they make a case to the super delegates that Hillary has little to no support among independents and is not liked or trusted by a majority of Americans. So if they nominate her, instead of watching her lose a 60 point national lead to Bernie, they'll see her lose her small 10-15% lead she has over Trump after months of him pointing out any and all of her flaws with no mercy.

Hillary need something like 60% of pledged delegates left to clinch and she's unlikely to win much from here on out. Cali was tied in the last poll I saw also.

As it stands now, Trump is more likely to clinch than Hillary.

hahahahaha
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 27 2016 18:36 GMT
#73810
WASHINGTON — A group of House Democrats is organizing an effort to slow down an Obama administration plan to reduce drug prices, according to a letter obtained by The Huffington Post.

The Department of Health and Human Services is working toward finalizing a new rule that would experiment with ending the financial incentive doctors have for prescribing some extremely expensive medications. The rule has been well-received among some patient advocates, but congressional Democrats have been largely silent, while the pharmaceutical industry and medical community have waged an aggressive campaign to stop it.

The campaign is bearing fruit. The letter being circulated among House Democrats uses the oldest move in the opposition playbook — warning of the dreaded unintended consequences. “We have concerns about the proposed payment model and its potential for unintended effects on beneficiaries and the physician community,” it reads, offering that, of course, they support the goal of the policy, just not the way it’s being done.

“A number of members have expressed concern about the scope and size of this initiative while recognizing problems with current payment rules,” said Drew Hammill, a spokesman for House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.). “Leader Pelosi hopes that CMS will continue to actively engage members and advocacy organizations as the particulars of this test are finalized.”

Hammill said Pelosi is urging members to sign the letter, which is being circulated by Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.). As a result of pressures among the medical community and Big Pharma, sources following the fight said, many Democrats were nervous enough about the proposed rule that they were considering signing a Republican letter that spoke in even harsher terms. The Democratic missive is written with an eye to those who want the rule to go forward, but don’t want to attract the ire of two powerful lobbies.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23073 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-27 18:42:31
April 27 2016 18:36 GMT
#73811
On April 28 2016 03:26 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
The bison, an animal once hunted to the brink of extinction in America, is set to become the first national mammal of the US, putting it on a par with the bald eagle as a symbol of the nation.

Congress has passed legislation, the National Bison Legacy Act, which names the hoofed beast as a “historical symbol of the United States” and establishes it as the nation’s landmark mammal.

Once the bipartisan move passes the Senate and receives Barack Obama’s sign-off, the bison will join the bald eagle, the national emblem since 1782, as America’s symbolic animal. America’s flora is represented by the oak, the national tree, and the rose, the national floral emblem.

The designation is a “milestone” in the effort to “prevent the bison from going extinct and to recognize the bison’s ecological, cultural, historical and economic importance to the United States”, said Cristian Samper, president of the Wildlife Conservation Society.

“The bison will serve as a great national symbol for the United States as it is as strong as the oak, fearless as the bald eagle and inspiring as a rose,” Samper added.

The honor doesn’t confer any new protections for the bison but represents a startling turnaround in the fortunes of the animal, also known more informally as the buffalo. The species was virtually wiped out in the 19th century as settlers moved west across America, slaughtering bison as they went.


Source



So long as they make sure to expand on this part a bit, and make sure people understand what was happening...

The US army had a policy to kill off bison to harm the Native American tribes that relied upon them...

On April 28 2016 03:36 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
WASHINGTON — A group of House Democrats is organizing an effort to slow down an Obama administration plan to reduce drug prices, according to a letter obtained by The Huffington Post.

The Department of Health and Human Services is working toward finalizing a new rule that would experiment with ending the financial incentive doctors have for prescribing some extremely expensive medications. The rule has been well-received among some patient advocates, but congressional Democrats have been largely silent, while the pharmaceutical industry and medical community have waged an aggressive campaign to stop it.

The campaign is bearing fruit. The letter being circulated among House Democrats uses the oldest move in the opposition playbook — warning of the dreaded unintended consequences. “We have concerns about the proposed payment model and its potential for unintended effects on beneficiaries and the physician community,” it reads, offering that, of course, they support the goal of the policy, just not the way it’s being done.

“A number of members have expressed concern about the scope and size of this initiative while recognizing problems with current payment rules,” said Drew Hammill, a spokesman for House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.). “Leader Pelosi hopes that CMS will continue to actively engage members and advocacy organizations as the particulars of this test are finalized.”

Hammill said Pelosi is urging members to sign the letter, which is being circulated by Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.). As a result of pressures among the medical community and Big Pharma, sources following the fight said, many Democrats were nervous enough about the proposed rule that they were considering signing a Republican letter that spoke in even harsher terms. The Democratic missive is written with an eye to those who want the rule to go forward, but don’t want to attract the ire of two powerful lobbies.


Source


Nice little preview of the influence of Big Pharma on the Democratic party. Good thing their preferred nominee isn't dependent on money from places like Big Pharm...wait, their preferred nominee is dependent on Big Pharma money...
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Introvert
Profile Joined April 2011
United States4716 Posts
April 27 2016 18:36 GMT
#73812
Cruz should have waited until after IN. Before looks too desperate (because it is). Before CA makes more sense, given Fiorina's connection to the state. I don't see how this helps on IN, and if he loses IN it's over anyway.
"It is therefore only at the birth of a society that one can be completely logical in the laws. When you see a people enjoying this advantage, do not hasten to conclude that it is wise; think rather that it is young." -Alexis de Tocqueville
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
April 27 2016 18:38 GMT
#73813
On April 28 2016 03:34 On_Slaught wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2016 03:27 oBlade wrote:
On April 28 2016 02:52 Plansix wrote:
Apparently Trump wants to force other nations to pay for US security, which is super dumb and impossible to enforce. But it fails to address the fact that doing that will cause the nations to seek assistance from US rivals. Trump doesn’t seem to understand that the free market doesn’t dictated the relations between sovereign nations.

No, he wants them to pay for their own security.

And you tried really hard to wedge the "free market" meme in there after you just said essentially that US allies would make other arrangements if it was cheaper for them.


Buying allies has been US policy for over a century. Usually better than letting them run to our possible advisaries.

Trump: You need to pay for your own security and defense.

Ally: We already do??? Did anyone tell you that our GDP is like 1/12th the size of yours?

Trump: You need to pay more, America isn’t picking up the tap until you do.

Ally: Why are we allied again?
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
amazingxkcd
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
GRAND OLD AMERICA16375 Posts
April 27 2016 18:48 GMT
#73814
On April 28 2016 02:48 On_Slaught wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2016 02:40 amazingxkcd wrote:
Trump's foreign policy speech was pure and utter bliss.


Explain.


The world is burning and you rather be on this terrible website discussing video games and your shallow feelings
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-27 18:52:43
April 27 2016 18:49 GMT
#73815
On April 28 2016 03:21 GreenHorizons wrote:
On how it ends up a brokered convention, neither candidate gets the pledged delegates needed and they make a case to the super delegates that Hillary has little to no support among independents and is not liked or trusted by a majority of Americans. So if they nominate her, instead of watching her lose a 60 point national lead to Bernie, they'll see her lose her small 10-15% lead she has over Trump after months of him pointing out any and all of her flaws with no mercy.

Hillary need something like 60% of pledged delegates left to clinch and she's unlikely to win much from here on out. Cali was tied in the last poll I saw also.

As it stands now, Trump is more likely to clinch than Hillary.

Wait what.

Are you seriously telling me you've bought the "superdelegates will choose Bernie, who has done nothing for the party after only recently switching, is a completely untested General Election candidate with glaring flaws that has been softballed by the Dems and Republicans this entire cycle, has not done almost any fundraising for down-ticket candidates, spent an entire campaign harassing them (the lists of superdelegate names/emails/addresses and were forwarded to Bernie supporters) and calling the system rigged, who lost both the popular and delegate votes, and has heavy shades of McGovern" argument?

If Bernie wants to win a majority of pledged delegates (and even have a distant prayer of winning super-delegates), he needs at least ~65% wins in every single race from now on.

Anything else is actually just delusional. Trump can still be denied a majority by a loss in Indiana (which will be the critical state for the Republican primaries). Hillary's actually won already, but we don't count superdelegates until the Convention so some people are (apparently) able to live in denial until then.

The only realistic chance that Bernie becomes the nominee is "politicized email non-scandal" being made actual scandal by the FBI.
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
zeo
Profile Joined October 2009
Serbia6281 Posts
April 27 2016 18:51 GMT
#73816
On April 28 2016 03:38 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2016 03:34 On_Slaught wrote:
On April 28 2016 03:27 oBlade wrote:
On April 28 2016 02:52 Plansix wrote:
Apparently Trump wants to force other nations to pay for US security, which is super dumb and impossible to enforce. But it fails to address the fact that doing that will cause the nations to seek assistance from US rivals. Trump doesn’t seem to understand that the free market doesn’t dictated the relations between sovereign nations.

No, he wants them to pay for their own security.

And you tried really hard to wedge the "free market" meme in there after you just said essentially that US allies would make other arrangements if it was cheaper for them.


Buying allies has been US policy for over a century. Usually better than letting them run to our possible advisaries.

Trump: You need to pay for your own security and defense.

Ally: We already do??? Did anyone tell you that our GDP is like 1/12th the size of yours?

Trump: You need to pay more, America isn’t picking up the tap until you do.

Ally: Why are we allied again?

It will be cheaper in the long run because Trump won't go on 'democracy' bombing sprees around the World. I'm sure European NATO countries would gladly pay up if it meant no more refugee crisis's because an American president gets that military industrial complex whisper.
"If only Kircheis were here" - Everyone
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15512 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-27 18:55:18
April 27 2016 18:52 GMT
#73817
On April 28 2016 03:36 Introvert wrote:
Cruz should have waited until after IN. Before looks too desperate (because it is). Before CA makes more sense, given Fiorina's connection to the state. I don't see how this helps on IN, and if he loses IN it's over anyway.


He already lost his identity when he pulled this Kasich disaster. He could not possibly be framing himself as "politician who is trying various things to somehow win" any more than he currently is.

And let's not forget the loser effect. We are going to see the same thing we saw in CT with Bernie. People just fucking sad about the whole thing and losing hope. It takes a lot more...courage(?) to vote for someone when they are a huuuuuge underdog. Seeing Trump hit multiple 60%'s in states in the week before IN is just...damning, IMO.

Cruz tries calling in Kasich --> gets sub-20% votes in 5 states --> tries calling Fiorina --> hopes for better? There is just such a massive loss in perceived strength by doing that. People want to rally behind someone strong. These recent stunts eliminated any perceived strength Cruz may have once had.

On April 28 2016 03:21 GreenHorizons wrote:
On how it ends up a brokered convention, neither candidate gets the pledged delegates needed and they make a case to the super delegates that Hillary has little to no support among independents and is not liked or trusted by a majority of Americans. So if they nominate her, instead of watching her lose a 60 point national lead to Bernie, they'll see her lose her small 10-15% lead she has over Trump after months of him pointing out any and all of her flaws with no mercy.

Hillary need something like 60% of pledged delegates left to clinch and she's unlikely to win much from here on out. Cali was tied in the last poll I saw also.

As it stands now, Trump is more likely to clinch than Hillary.


Honestly, this is just weird to read. Things keep going so wildly differently from what you predict. I really think you need to step back for a moment and look at the situation. It's like you are actually viewing different numbers next to each state. How many delegates do you think Bernie and Clinton each have right now?
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
April 27 2016 18:56 GMT
#73818
On April 28 2016 03:51 zeo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2016 03:38 Plansix wrote:
On April 28 2016 03:34 On_Slaught wrote:
On April 28 2016 03:27 oBlade wrote:
On April 28 2016 02:52 Plansix wrote:
Apparently Trump wants to force other nations to pay for US security, which is super dumb and impossible to enforce. But it fails to address the fact that doing that will cause the nations to seek assistance from US rivals. Trump doesn’t seem to understand that the free market doesn’t dictated the relations between sovereign nations.

No, he wants them to pay for their own security.

And you tried really hard to wedge the "free market" meme in there after you just said essentially that US allies would make other arrangements if it was cheaper for them.


Buying allies has been US policy for over a century. Usually better than letting them run to our possible advisaries.

Trump: You need to pay for your own security and defense.

Ally: We already do??? Did anyone tell you that our GDP is like 1/12th the size of yours?

Trump: You need to pay more, America isn’t picking up the tap until you do.

Ally: Why are we allied again?

It will be cheaper in the long run because Trump won't go on 'democracy' bombing sprees around the World. I'm sure European NATO countries would gladly pay up if it meant no more refugee crisis's because an American president gets that military industrial complex whisper.

Well god knows that is what I was looking for, cheap alliances with other nations. On the list of things I was super concerned with, that was up there.

This entire thing is like a grade school understanding of international relations.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
April 27 2016 19:00 GMT
#73819
There's a ton of room for American allies to spend more on their own defense. Most of these countries are spending less than 2% of their GDP on defense, which is pathetic. It is inarguable that they get away with this because they know that they have the US to rely upon.
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-27 19:02:24
April 27 2016 19:01 GMT
#73820
I spoken with a number of major foreign policy think-tank speakers and directors in the course of my work.

The general feeling here is that 1) Hillary will largely continue the broad strokes of Obama's policy, especially in regards to the Asia strategic pivot (though being more assertive and proactive overall), 2) Bernie isn't mentioned at all, 3) no one knows what any of the Republicans will actually do.
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
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