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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3239

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
March 09 2016 05:23 GMT
#64761
After Rubio's numbers today, who in Florida is gonna still vote for him? His run is so clearly dead. It would only be symbolic.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
March 09 2016 05:26 GMT
#64762
it is a serious question to ask, is sanders more dangerous than trump

noah smith on sanders trade position
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-06/sanders-fails-to-recognize-that-some-trade-is-good
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8004 Posts
March 09 2016 05:26 GMT
#64763
Even WaPo had to confess that Bernie was the big winner tonight (outside of Trump of course)
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
Introvert
Profile Joined April 2011
United States4951 Posts
March 09 2016 05:28 GMT
#64764
On March 09 2016 14:23 Mohdoo wrote:
After Rubio's numbers today, who in Florida is gonna still vote for him? His run is so clearly dead. It would only be symbolic.


Strategic voting is a thing. Most likely explanation for Rubio 5% in Ohio and 30% in Florida (depending on the poll). Just a theory.
"But, as the conservative understands it, modification of the rules should always reflect, and never impose, a change in the activities and beliefs of those who are subject to them, and should never on any occasion be so great as to destroy the ensemble."
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-09 05:37:04
March 09 2016 05:31 GMT
#64765
On March 09 2016 13:38 Slaughter wrote:
Still not good for Bernie though that he still overall lost on delegates gained since he got whomped in MS. Still though the upset could give him some momentum I guess.

The polls suggested that he was going to crash and burn today. Instead he pretty much breaks even. That's pretty solidly good for Bernie.
Soon we're going to leave the South too, so demographics become more favorable for Bernie.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
March 09 2016 05:58 GMT
#64766
On March 09 2016 14:26 oneofthem wrote:
it is a serious question to ask, is sanders more dangerous than trump

noah smith on sanders trade position
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-06/sanders-fails-to-recognize-that-some-trade-is-good


As a sidenote, it's quite mindboggling that some presidential candidates (not only sanders) are not able to grasp TTP/TTIP - and why it's not a threat to US jobs and flat out state they will stop it.

My flabbers are gasted every time i read dumb shit like that.
On track to MA1950A.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
March 09 2016 06:02 GMT
#64767
On March 09 2016 13:36 xDaunt wrote:
Look at this fucking picture of Rubio that Drudge posted, haha:

[image loading]

"These legs only need to carry me as far as Florida. Then I'm a player!"

On March 09 2016 13:40 Jibba wrote:
Also, it does not surprise me that Kasich is getting crushed here. Republicans in Idaho are all sorts of fucking crazy.

Case in point: This piece of shit who shot a pastor, from Cruz's rally, in the head, and then drove across the country and attempted to assault the White House.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/08/us/idaho-pastor-shooting/index.html

Keep in mind a different Idahoan was put in prison for firing at the White House in 2011.

I always say the worst part of Idaho are the Idahoans.

Sounds like an apolitical kind of crazy. His manifesto referred to the earth being ruled by an ancient civilization of mars, whose vast conspiracy apparently involved the pastor that spoke at Cruz's rally. Cruz did take Idaho.

On March 09 2016 14:11 Introvert wrote:
After SC, there were many Cruz supporters who were thinking of backing Rubio under the (ultimately false) establishment narrative that Rubio had the best chance. After Super Tuesday, no one was thinking that anymore- it was quite obviously wrong. Whatever chance Cruz has, Rubio's is clearly worse.

The reason Trump is so likely is that either A) he wins Florida/Ohio, and simply has too many delegates or

B) Kasich/Rubio win their respective states, so no one drops out, and Trump continues to dominate a crowded field.

This craziness is only helped because the upcoming states are better for Rubio (and maybe Kasich), but it's already too late for him/them.

So do they go all out and play for a contested convention? That's what they are deciding now, if they weren't discussing it already. After all, rumors have been going around for at least a week now.

There's so much bad blood between Cruz and Trump I have no idea how whoever wins will consolidate support for the general. There's still the rabid left pushing people to support the biggest hope to keep Clinton out of the white house no matter what his name is. But the voters that stayed home for McCain and Romney can just as easily not vote for the unlikable liar or the crass liberal flipflopper.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
corumjhaelen
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
France6884 Posts
March 09 2016 06:07 GMT
#64768
On March 09 2016 14:26 oneofthem wrote:
it is a serious question to ask, is sanders more dangerous than trump

noah smith on sanders trade position
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-06/sanders-fails-to-recognize-that-some-trade-is-good

Noah Smith, awesome.
Your post are so nice tonight, I hope Sanders has good reasons to stay till the convention.
‎numquam se plus agere quam nihil cum ageret, numquam minus solum esse quam cum solus esset
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
March 09 2016 06:10 GMT
#64769
i aint even mad

this was just far too entertaining and confusing for me
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14115 Posts
March 09 2016 06:42 GMT
#64770
I don't know about all of you but I'm now cheering for a floor fight for one if not both conventions. It'll be the greatest political event the world has ever seen.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
amazingxkcd
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
GRAND OLD AMERICA16375 Posts
March 09 2016 06:45 GMT
#64771
fantastic performance for trump tonight, ahead of schedule to stop brokered convention. Today was a good birthday
The world is burning and you rather be on this terrible website discussing video games and your shallow feelings
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-09 06:57:29
March 09 2016 06:52 GMT
#64772
On March 09 2016 14:26 oneofthem wrote:
it is a serious question to ask, is sanders more dangerous than trump

noah smith on sanders trade position
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-06/sanders-fails-to-recognize-that-some-trade-is-good


Hopefully so.

Some trade is good sure. Increasing corporate power at the expense of democratic governments across the world while enclosing the intellectual commons with barbed wire privatizing of intellectual "property" seems to get short shrift in Noah's analysis.

Lol @ the Bono quote btw. Just quote Bono if you want to vitiate your whole essay.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
March 09 2016 06:54 GMT
#64773
Trump could beat Rubio in Hawaii...
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Frudgey
Profile Joined September 2012
Canada3367 Posts
March 09 2016 07:04 GMT
#64774
On March 09 2016 14:31 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2016 13:38 Slaughter wrote:
Still not good for Bernie though that he still overall lost on delegates gained since he got whomped in MS. Still though the upset could give him some momentum I guess.

The polls suggested that he was going to crash and burn today. Instead he pretty much breaks even. That's pretty solidly good for Bernie.
Soon we're going to leave the South too, so demographics become more favorable for Bernie.

Is it even possible for Bernie to win the nominee at this point? I honestly don't know.

From my (very limited) understanding Clinton is pretty far ahead in the delegate count right now, so Bernie would have to win pretty big at every state from now to win the nominee. But supposedly the upcoming states are more in Bernie's favor, but will that be enough?

From what I know it seems like Bernie has a hypothetical chance at being the nominee, but if I were to RANDOMLY throw out numbers the odds seem to be 1-9 in Hillary's favor.

Again I really want to stress that I don't have an informed opinion so take what I say with several grains of salt.
It is better to die for The Emperor than live for yourself.
oBlade
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States6118 Posts
March 09 2016 07:11 GMT
#64775
On March 09 2016 15:54 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Trump could beat Rubio in Hawaii...

It's like he was born to do it.
"I read it. You know how to read, you ignorant fuck?" - Andy Dufresne
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
March 09 2016 07:28 GMT
#64776
On March 09 2016 16:04 Frudgey wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2016 14:31 LegalLord wrote:
On March 09 2016 13:38 Slaughter wrote:
Still not good for Bernie though that he still overall lost on delegates gained since he got whomped in MS. Still though the upset could give him some momentum I guess.

The polls suggested that he was going to crash and burn today. Instead he pretty much breaks even. That's pretty solidly good for Bernie.
Soon we're going to leave the South too, so demographics become more favorable for Bernie.

Is it even possible for Bernie to win the nominee at this point? I honestly don't know.

From my (very limited) understanding Clinton is pretty far ahead in the delegate count right now, so Bernie would have to win pretty big at every state from now to win the nominee. But supposedly the upcoming states are more in Bernie's favor, but will that be enough?

From what I know it seems like Bernie has a hypothetical chance at being the nominee, but if I were to RANDOMLY throw out numbers the odds seem to be 1-9 in Hillary's favor.

Again I really want to stress that I don't have an informed opinion so take what I say with several grains of salt.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
It wouldn't exactly take a miracle for Bernie to come out on top in the end. He is modestly behind in the race so far, but he's almost certainly going to close the gap (Hillary won't do as well in the rest of the race as she has in the South). That said, he isn't exactly a favorite to win, and it would be an upset if he managed to turn things around. After seeing Michigan fail at polling I'd put his odds at something around 20%.

Clinton is very far ahead when you count the 400-something superdelegates that said they would support her. Given that the party base would splinter on the race being handed over to someone who lost in such an undemocratic way, it's probably gonna be the case that if Bernie is on track to win, the superdelegates will switch sides.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
LemOn
Profile Blog Joined July 2005
United Kingdom8629 Posts
March 09 2016 09:48 GMT
#64777
Yeah Rubio loses in Florida = drop out time. And the establishment can try last hail push behind Kasich when that happens?
Much is the father figure that I miss in my life. Go Daddy! DoC.LemOn, LemOn[5thF]
wei2coolman
Profile Joined November 2010
United States60033 Posts
March 09 2016 09:55 GMT
#64778

Pretty amazing breakdown of the media coverage of the raised right hand at the Trump ralley, and it taps into that growing disdain that the American people have of the media every time they play a story like this
liftlift > tsm
tshi
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2495 Posts
March 09 2016 10:14 GMT
#64779
"the breadth of the evil"

Yeah, pretty much. It's not really comparable. But I just think people got carried away on their trump-hate and some of them honestly believe it and think it's "heading there."

:S
scrub - inexperienced player with relatively little skill and excessive arrogance
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
March 09 2016 11:08 GMT
#64780
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
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