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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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Slaughter
United States20254 Posts
On March 09 2016 13:31 darthfoley wrote: Just FYI this is also funny because Michigan state schools are on spring break this week, which may have even depressed some Sanders support tonight lol With how much he crushes young demographics (and college kids being lazy and not preparing for it) that could be a fairly significant chunk. | ||
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CdE27dkUUAAmAxF.jpg) | ||
Jibba
United States22883 Posts
On March 09 2016 13:33 ZeaL. wrote: Yeah thinking about it a bit more I understand why the output is presented the way it is. And just for reference this is the data they were working with: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/3VNWwh0.png) If anything this is an indication of the poor quality of polling companies. They've always been poor quality polling. We all understand garbage in, garbage out. Nate's magic last time was the system for rating polling quality. The actual vote model probably wasn't that much different than MIT's model. | ||
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Slaughter
United States20254 Posts
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On March 09 2016 13:32 farvacola wrote: The performances of the campaigns of both sanders and trump suggest that folks like silver need revisit the degree to which their models provide for whatever falls outside the realm of quantitative data, which sort of flies in the face of what 538 is all about. This ain't 2012;) Edit: and yep, on spring break this week, though I vote in Ohio 😊 I don't think that's really true. They could integrate closed vs open primary a little more and perhaps build in more uncertainty, but I highly doubt anyone could craft a model with better performance than theirs thus far in the primaries given the paucity of data (and if they have, kudos to them). You could build a model with so much uncertainty that it can handle something literally unprecedented in the history of modern polling like Michigan today, but then it wouldn't be very useful (which is kind of the point of a model since they're never "right" anyway). | ||
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Jibba
United States22883 Posts
Case in point: This piece of shit who shot a pastor, from Cruz's rally, in the head, and then drove across the country and attempted to assault the White House. http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/08/us/idaho-pastor-shooting/index.html Keep in mind a different Idahoan was put in prison for firing at the White House in 2011. I always say the worst part of Idaho are the Idahoans. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23657 Posts
On March 09 2016 13:33 kwizach wrote: The A.P. calls Michigan for Sanders! Kudos to his campaign and their volunteers for grabbing that one and making the polls lie. Thanks we busted ass for it, and it wasn't easy getting motivated with practically every Hillary supporter and Media outlet saying we should of given up. But this is why we didn't, it wasn't over. Nice try though. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Also if Clinton can't win the Rust Belt that means she has to pick either Warren or Brown as a VP pick. Smart pick would be Brown an have an ally in Warren in the Senate. | ||
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jcarlsoniv
United States27922 Posts
On March 09 2016 13:33 kwizach wrote: The A.P. calls Michigan for Sanders! Kudos to his campaign and their volunteers for grabbing that one and making the polls lie. Just want to say thanks for being gracious in defeat. yooj night | ||
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ZeaL.
United States5955 Posts
On March 09 2016 13:37 Jibba wrote: They've always been poor quality polling. We all understand garbage in, garbage out. Nate's magic last time was the system for rating polling quality. The actual vote model probably wasn't that much different than MIT's model. Correct me if I'm wrong but I recall from the '08/'12 elections the idea was to add a bias to the poll (i.e. Gallup is +R so correct by -R +D) and then weight the value of the poll based on its quality (trust historically accurate polls over unproven/inaccurate). This seems okay for general election polling but how would you apply this to a primary given no historical data between the candidates? | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4384 Posts
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Jibba
United States22883 Posts
On March 09 2016 13:44 ZeaL. wrote: Correct me if I'm wrong but I recall from the '08/'12 elections the idea was to add a bias to the poll (i.e. Gallup is +R so correct by -R +D) and then weight the value of the poll based on its quality (trust historically accurate polls over unproven/inaccurate). This seems okay for general election polling but how would you apply this to a primary given no historical data between the candidates? The weighting is applied to the polling service, not the candidate though. | ||
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Slaughter
United States20254 Posts
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synapse
China13814 Posts
On March 09 2016 13:50 Slaughter wrote: It seems to me like Trump is approaching being the inevitable candidate. Is there really a way for anyone else? Seems like he pretty much has it locked up barring a meltdown. Rubio is pretty much screwed now. It'd take a miracle but I'd say there's still a small small chance the party decides to back Kasich and Cruz falls apart. | ||
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darthfoley
United States8004 Posts
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ZeaL.
United States5955 Posts
On March 09 2016 13:48 Jibba wrote: The weighting is applied to the polling service, not the candidate though. Right and that's fine if the polling services disagree, heavily weight the accurate ones and figure which result is more likely. For IA, NH, NV, SC there were all at least some polls close to the final result so modeling based only on polls could predict the actual winner. For MI though there were literally no polls showing Sanders even close to a win. There's no way you can twist the data to get a Sanders win out of that unless you assume every polling outfit is heavily Clinton biased and add a big fudge factor to your data. It's just weird that to me that polls could be relatively accurate for the first few states and then be completely off. There has to be something that is not being accounted for. If 538 wants to continue to be the oracle of elections then I hope they figure out what is really predictive. | ||
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Introvert
United States4908 Posts
The reason Trump is so likely is that either A) he wins Florida/Ohio, and simply has too many delegates or B) Kasich/Rubio win their respective states, so no one drops out, and Trump continues to dominate a crowded field. This craziness is only helped because the upcoming states are better for Rubio (and maybe Kasich), but it's already too late for him/them. So do they go all out and play for a contested convention? That's what they are deciding now, if they weren't discussing it already. After all, rumors have been going around for at least a week now. | ||
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strongwind
United States862 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
I read somewhere, not sure where, that pollsters have been aware for a long time that their sampling methods are faulty for producing random samples. The only reason polls worked is that for a reason they were unable to explain, telephone poll results seemed to track relatively well to actual results. Granted, that has pretty much fallen apart this election, and Michigan here is one of the most notable examples. | ||
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
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