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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

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Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
ErectedZenith
Profile Joined January 2016
325 Posts
March 09 2016 15:15 GMT
#64801
And Clinton is still ahead of Sanders anyways so no super delegates are even needed in the first place.

Says a lot about Sander's current condition.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
March 09 2016 15:17 GMT
#64802
https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/03/07/bernie-sanderss-two-big-lies-about-the-global-economy/

sanders is simply ignorant on a range of fundamental issues and does a disservice to political discourse and education with simplistic and antagonism oriented rhetoric
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
March 09 2016 15:18 GMT
#64803
On March 10 2016 00:15 ErectedZenith wrote:
And Clinton is still ahead of Sanders anyways so no super delegates are even needed in the first place.

Says a lot about Sander's current condition.


Superdelegates converge on the candidate with more people's candidates, if Sanders does miraculously well, this can happen on June seventh after Mont., S.D. and N.D vote.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
trulojucreathrma.com
Profile Blog Joined December 2015
United States327 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-09 15:25:31
March 09 2016 15:22 GMT
#64804
On March 10 2016 00:17 oneofthem wrote:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/03/07/bernie-sanderss-two-big-lies-about-the-global-economy/

sanders is simply ignorant on a range of fundamental issues and does a disservice to political discourse and education with simplistic and antagonism oriented rhetoric


We had 17 republican candidates that denied an obvious uncontroversial scientific theory.
But the Washington Post is up in arms about Sanders telling 'lies' about the economy. No one has a clue how the economy works, as shown by the 2008 economic crash caused by Wall Street and Clinton deregulation.


Anyway, why does it quote Sanders having said this: "I WILL OPPOSE ALL TRADE DEALS UNTIL OUR SUN IMPLODES"

Is the WTP now the Onion?


Talk about being simply ignorant. And the guy posting it is a professor of politics, not economics. So his opinion on economics do not matter.



As for protectionism. Let's talk about protectionism in the republican party: Hello Mr Trump. And is he wrong? Protectionism works, sadly.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22675 Posts
March 09 2016 15:22 GMT
#64805
Yeah Sander's doesnt really care about super delegates. He is (imo correctly) focused on winning the popular vote and believes that the super delegates will not go against the majority.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
iPlaY.NettleS
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Australia4460 Posts
March 09 2016 15:22 GMT
#64806
Yeah but i can't see Sanders doing great in Illinois or Florida next week.Minorities and old people respectively.Clinton with the momentum from here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
March 09 2016 15:24 GMT
#64807
In general super delegates are always going to vote for what is best for the party and there is almost no scenario where over turning a voter mandate is going to be in the parties best interest. The only time it would come up is if a candidate won the majority of primaries, but was then was found to be a horrible drug addict, domestic abuser or to have blatantly committed voter fraud. Something that completely changed the public’s perception well after the votes were cast.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
March 09 2016 15:24 GMT
#64808
On March 10 2016 00:17 oneofthem wrote:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/03/07/bernie-sanderss-two-big-lies-about-the-global-economy/

sanders is simply ignorant on a range of fundamental issues and does a disservice to political discourse and education with simplistic and antagonism oriented rhetoric


I would like to add to this that TTIP is still very popular among EU countries, and shelving the deal will have major diplomatic consequences (France and Germany are already courting China and India as possible alternative trade partners), especially as the transatlantic relationship is under more strain than ever before. Now both Sanders and Clinton oppose the TTIP. Usually candidates back off trade deals after the primaries, but if pushed hard enough to the left, even Clinton might not switch sides...
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
trulojucreathrma.com
Profile Blog Joined December 2015
United States327 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-09 15:28:40
March 09 2016 15:27 GMT
#64809
Pretty sure Clinton supports TTIP. What Clinton says she does or does not support so fas has had zero correlation with what she actually believes/does.


Anyway, if EU, under pressure of the US, shoves TTIP down the European people, if the EU hasn't died by then, it will die then.

TTIP is hugely popular with EU politicians hugely unpopular among voters.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18870 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-09 15:31:22
March 09 2016 15:28 GMT
#64810
On March 10 2016 00:11 oneofthem wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2016 23:10 farvacola wrote:
That Noah Smith article is painfully unresponsive to Sanders' platform in two major ways: first, it utterly fails to identify even a modicum of nuance. Accordingly, Noah's assumption that Bernie is going to straight up kill all forms of international trade is both wrong in plain terms and incredibly misleading in terms of giving form to a primary stumping platform. Which leads me to point two: Smith's article fails to recognize that Sanders has a strong incentive to paint in broad strokes during a primary, particularly in terms of illustrating a populist, leftist approach to trade that'll get out the vote (see Michigan).

I mean it isn't hard to see why you'd buy that spiel but there are far less transparent (and effective) means of indicting Sanders.

how is it wrong to suggest sanders would unravel the free trade paradigm the u.s. has built up over the decades? talk about nuance with sanders would require him to have some, and he does not. he also lacks strategic common sense

"unravel the free trade paradigm"="upset the status quo" with a negative connotation. So no, it isn't wrong, it's just a similarly incomplete and narrow minded characterization of a critique of deals like NAFTA.

Lol, and then you post yet another empty attack article. Talk about strategic common sense, you routinely play the part of the smug Hillary fan who doesn't quite know how to play games of political rhetoric. You could learn from ticklish
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-09 15:46:36
March 09 2016 15:32 GMT
#64811
I'm obviously biased, but I think Michigan was a bit of a fluke:

-great job by Bernie's supporters, first
-Hillary campaign dropped the ball in a lot of ways, not enough people on the ground, not enough/proper messaging, etc.
-apparently a lot of Democrats voted for Kasich (the 7% in their primary were mostly for him)
-polls bad: severely misweighted turnout by party affiliation, some insane independent turnout, probably not great #'s in general since the last time they had a real Democratic primary was like 2004
-anti-trade sentiment is/was much stronger than expected
-VIRTUAL TIE

Oh hey I got a compliment
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
frazzle
Profile Joined June 2012
United States468 Posts
March 09 2016 15:33 GMT
#64812
On March 09 2016 23:44 trulojucreathrma.com wrote:
If it is Trump vs Clinton, it will be a disaster. She might be forced to withdraw even before people get to vote. In that case, there will be a third party candidate. You cannot have someone as extreme and controversial as Trump run an election against no one.

Does anyone outside of the FOX news crowd believe there is even a remote possibility of Hilary dropping out due to a breakthrough in email-gate? I know right-wing media would have you believe the big indictment will happen any day now, that there is a big development about to be announced, but that was their story about Benghazi for the last 5 years too. It's all part of the FUD campaign built around the next presumed democrat nominee for president.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
March 09 2016 15:34 GMT
#64813
On March 10 2016 00:27 trulojucreathrma.com wrote:
Pretty sure Clinton supports TTIP. What Clinton says she does or does not support so fas has had zero correlation with what she actually believes/does.


Anyway, if EU, under pressure of the US, shoves TTIP down the European people, if the EU hasn't died by then, it will die then.

TTIP is hugely popular with EU politicians hugely unpopular among voters.


I'd like to see evidence for that claim. Pro-TTIP parties and candidates win most elections and even have a comfortable majority in the left-leaning EU parliament.

You might not like it yourself, but the EU is the largest economic area in the world and benefits most from trade deals.

Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-09 15:42:47
March 09 2016 15:37 GMT
#64814
On March 09 2016 23:56 Ghanburighan wrote:
Nothing happened except that polls were wrong yet again (something that we'll have to get used to as the race progresses, there's less interest and less money in polls).

I honestly think that that's huge (yuge) no matter which way the results end up going. It means that Bernie doesn't have any reason to drop out for a long time (if he lost yesterday by 20 points that would have been pretty brutal for his campaign). Same goes for the non-Trump Republicans.

Also means that pollsters are going to have to rework their methodologies, which at least from a statistical perspective is pretty interesting.

On March 10 2016 00:17 oneofthem wrote:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/03/07/bernie-sanderss-two-big-lies-about-the-global-economy/

sanders is simply ignorant on a range of fundamental issues and does a disservice to political discourse and education with simplistic and antagonism oriented rhetoric

I do take exception to the stealth allusion to Hitler with a reference to the "Big Lie." Even capitalized it no less. Seriously, even if you disagree with someone's positions, you shouldn't be calling your opponents Hitler.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
March 09 2016 15:42 GMT
#64815
On March 10 2016 00:22 Gorsameth wrote:
Yeah Sander's doesnt really care about super delegates. He is (imo correctly) focused on winning the popular vote and believes that the super delegates will not go against the majority.

yeah pretty much. I really don't think that if Sanders somehow manages to get 50+% of delegates the super delegates will go against that. You have people talking about how the GOP base is revolting and how that's not happening for the DEMs but if that's the scenario we're talking about people would get mad as well.

And actually Sanders has been doing fine lately. According to 538:
March 5th: 52 delegates target (to get to 50% nationwide), he got 52
March 6th: 15 delegates target, he got 16
March 8th: 80 delegates target, he got 73

that's not all that much off. He got kicked in the ass on SuperTuesday and needs to catch up but right now he's doing okay the last couple of days. If he can somehow keep this up on March 15 he'll be fine. I doubt that he can keep this up but who knows.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
frazzle
Profile Joined June 2012
United States468 Posts
March 09 2016 15:46 GMT
#64816
On March 10 2016 00:24 Ghanburighan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 10 2016 00:17 oneofthem wrote:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/03/07/bernie-sanderss-two-big-lies-about-the-global-economy/

sanders is simply ignorant on a range of fundamental issues and does a disservice to political discourse and education with simplistic and antagonism oriented rhetoric


I would like to add to this that TTIP is still very popular among EU countries, and shelving the deal will have major diplomatic consequences (France and Germany are already courting China and India as possible alternative trade partners), especially as the transatlantic relationship is under more strain than ever before. Now both Sanders and Clinton oppose the TTIP. Usually candidates back off trade deals after the primaries, but if pushed hard enough to the left, even Clinton might not switch sides...

Ironically enough the countries you cite, France and Germany are the countries with the lowest public support (with austrai) of the deal according to Pew. They are at or below 50%. Where did you hear about them "courting" China and India? My research pal Google didn't find anything for me, but maybe I missed a key search term :D
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
March 09 2016 15:46 GMT
#64817
On March 10 2016 00:18 Ghanburighan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 10 2016 00:15 ErectedZenith wrote:
And Clinton is still ahead of Sanders anyways so no super delegates are even needed in the first place.

Says a lot about Sander's current condition.


Superdelegates converge on the candidate with more people's candidates, if Sanders does miraculously well, this can happen on June seventh after Mont., S.D. and N.D vote.

You have a pretty hard case to make considering their makeup of lobbyists and Democrat insiders. Sanders trails by ~4 primaries but ~2:1 supers. The more sane position is that supers represent entrenched Democrat interests and only in the event of huge popular vote swings against them would they change their sides. That's more an interest in avoiding mass party rebellion in extreme cases than a natural convergence.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-09 15:50:16
March 09 2016 15:47 GMT
#64818
On March 10 2016 00:42 Toadesstern wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 10 2016 00:22 Gorsameth wrote:
Yeah Sander's doesnt really care about super delegates. He is (imo correctly) focused on winning the popular vote and believes that the super delegates will not go against the majority.

yeah pretty much. I really don't think that if Sanders somehow manages to get 50+% of delegates the super delegates will go against that. You have people talking about how the GOP base is revolting and how that's not happening for the DEMs but if that's the scenario we're talking about people would get mad as well.

And actually Sanders has been doing fine lately. According to 538:
March 5th: 52 delegates target (to get to 50% nationwide), he got 52
March 6th: 15 delegates target, he got 16
March 8th: 80 delegates target, he got 73

that's not all that much off. He got kicked in the ass on SuperTuesday and needs to catch up but right now he's doing okay the last couple of days. If he can somehow keep this up on March 15 he'll be fine. I doubt that he can keep this up but who knows.


Just adding the data for all to see:

[image loading]

And they don't give a sum, it's currently Clinton +86.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-09 16:06:57
March 09 2016 15:57 GMT
#64819
I'll try and formulate a longer post, but I've decided I really hate populism. It is essentially appealing to the lowest common denominator, in this case economic populism for those who really don't understand the trade agreements. For example, I remember hearing just the other day our confectionery industry is getting rekt because we can't import cheap sugar from other nations (the horror! and I say that half jokingly). Populism tends to oversimply complex issues, and in doing so it's just a little bit dishonest. I will say that for Bernie this seems to be born out of ignorance and genuine belief rather than dishonesty (which may not necessarily be better).

An interesting bit is that Bernie came out against protectionism re: ex/im and Boeing (and also showed a pretty terrible ignorance of how taxes actually work). Protectionism wasn't executed in a way that protected the auto manufacturers though. I'm going to largely attribute this tension to Bernie not really knowing how international trade works (eek!). Would be interesting to see Hillary push him on this. I think ideally Hillary would demonstrate her grasp of the topic while conveying "yes we let you down and we're deeply sorry for that but we intend to make you whole again".

I've decided to try and be civil for the most part, I'm learning from Marco that dropping the level of discourse can only hurt.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
March 09 2016 15:58 GMT
#64820
On March 10 2016 00:42 Toadesstern wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 10 2016 00:22 Gorsameth wrote:
Yeah Sander's doesnt really care about super delegates. He is (imo correctly) focused on winning the popular vote and believes that the super delegates will not go against the majority.

yeah pretty much. I really don't think that if Sanders somehow manages to get 50+% of delegates the super delegates will go against that. You have people talking about how the GOP base is revolting and how that's not happening for the DEMs but if that's the scenario we're talking about people would get mad as well.

And actually Sanders has been doing fine lately. According to 538:
March 5th: 52 delegates target (to get to 50% nationwide), he got 52
March 6th: 15 delegates target, he got 16
March 8th: 80 delegates target, he got 73

that's not all that much off. He got kicked in the ass on SuperTuesday and needs to catch up but right now he's doing okay the last couple of days. If he can somehow keep this up on March 15 he'll be fine. I doubt that he can keep this up but who knows.

Yeah he's doing not too bad, but not good enough yet to hope get the nomination right? I mean he wouldn't need a miracle, but a very strong performance in coming states
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