US Politics Mega-thread - Page 2726

The Republican Party is facing a historic split over its fundamental principles and identity, as its once powerful establishment grapples with an eruption of class tensions, ethnic resentments and mistrust among working-class conservatives who are demanding a presidential nominee who represents their interests.

At family dinners and New Year’s parties, in conference calls and at private lunches, longtime Republicans are expressing a growing fear that the coming election could be shattering for the party, or reshape it in ways that leave it unrecognizable.

While warring party factions usually reconcile after brutal nomination fights, this race feels different, according to interviews with more than 50 Republican leaders, activists, donors and voters, from both elite circles and the grass roots.

Never have so many voters been attracted to Republican candidates like Donald J. Trump and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who are challenging core party beliefs on the economy and national security and new goals like winning over Hispanics through immigration reform.

Rank-and-file conservatives, after decades of deferring to party elites, are trying to stage what is effectively a people’s coup by selecting a standard-bearer who is not the preferred candidate of wealthy donors and elected officials.

And many of those traditional power brokers, in turn, are deeply uncomfortable and even hostile to Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz: Between them, the leading candidates do not have the backing of a single senator or governor.

“I haven’t seen this large of a division in my career,” said Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican first elected to Congress in 1982. “You probably have to go back to Ford versus Reagan in 1976. But that was only two people.”

The issues animating grass-roots voters — opposition to immigration, worries about wages and discomfort with America’s fast-changing demographics — are diverging from and at times colliding with the Republican establishment’s interests in free trade, lower taxes, less regulation and openness to immigration.

On January 10 2016 09:31 Jibba wrote:
And Prince.

On January 10 2016 10:01 KwarK wrote:
and that dude with the crucifix

If party leaders backed Mr. Trump, they would have to conduct campaigns in parallel universes, supporting a candidate who has said he wants to deport illegal immigrants en masse and temporarily bar Muslims from the country, while simultaneously trying to diversify their predominantly white male base.

On January 10 2016 12:47 acker wrote:


I kind of want Trump to win the nomination just to see what this would entail.

On January 10 2016 06:45 Mohdoo wrote:
And as a note, I don't think I'm being reasonable. I just see the type of people who comment on shit like this on Facebook and I realize the left has some uneducated idiots of their own. I cringe and feel like I don't want to be a part of the stuff they say. But then I realize that this kinda catering to the lowest denominator is what works for elections and it doesn't mean that Bernie will actually be a meme president. It's just that memes get votes.

That being said, at least we don't get the rural vote. I have often asked myself how someone can realize their views align with rural america and still not question whether they've been wrong all along. There is no group less educated and less qualified to make decisions than rural america. It is interesting to me that the fact that they produce food is able to elevate them to some kinda untouchable status. Sure, they make food. But someone else would make food if they didn't. This is not rocket science.

Edit: I agree that our justice system is complete shit. It is more so that this meme with Bernie being all angry and shit was the straw that broke the camels back. My ideal political system would disallow anything other than text being conveyed to voters. It would be an election based purely on ideas without the ability to even *see* who is running.

In 10 months, Americans will go to the polls to pick the next U.S. president. When they cast their ballots, those votes will likely hinge on how they feel about the issues most important to them.

But what are those issues?

As a way of finding out, NPR's Rachel Martin centered her focus on one community going through a lot of change: Mecklenburg County, N.C. The whole county — including its biggest city, Charlotte — has been enjoying an economic boom. It's a major center for banking, there's a growing tech sector and immigrants have been coming to the county in growing numbers: In the 1990s, the number of Hispanics in Mecklenberg County increased by 400 percent.

At the same time, a recent study out of Berkeley University and Harvard ranked Charlotte dead last when it comes to economic mobility compared to other major cities.

These changes in the county have led to debates over government overreach, income inequality and immigration. These are some of the same issues that are front and center in the presidential race — which makes Mecklenburg County an interesting place to spend some time this election year.

But to understand the voting population in Mecklenburg County you have to understand how Charlotte and the surrounding suburbs have changed in the last several years.

Sanders leads GOP front-runner Donald Trump head-to-head by 13 in Iowa, while Clinton only leads him by 8. In New Hampshire the disparity is even greater, with Sanders leading Trump by 19, and Clinton only edging him by 1.

The poll produced similar findings in head-to-head match-ups against Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).

The most stunning finding was in New Hampshire, where Rubio leads Clinton 12, but trails Sanders by 9.

On January 11 2016 04:40 Cowboy64 wrote:
GOP Establishment is ridiculous, pandering for Hispanic votes as if Hispanics can't see through the patronizing overtures of "diversity". What can the Republicans offer Hispanic Democrats the Democrats aren't already offering? First Latino President is the only thing they've got, and they are actively working against Cruz (though recently they've warmed up to Rubio).

Nate Silver to the rescue!:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

Nudge the white vote over to the Republican side just a few points and you have a GOP win. We'd have needed close to a 50-point flip among Hispanics to beat Barack last time. Of course it would be "racist!" for the GOP to ever tell the truth: "we need to capture the white vote." Of course no one bats an eye when anyone says: "they need the black vote, hispanic vote, Jew vote, minority vote, etc."

On January 11 2016 04:40 Cowboy64 wrote:
GOP Establishment is ridiculous, pandering for Hispanic votes as if Hispanics can't see through the patronizing overtures of "diversity". What can the Republicans offer Hispanic Democrats the Democrats aren't already offering? First Latino President is the only thing they've got, and they are actively working against Cruz (though recently they've warmed up to Rubio).

Nate Silver to the rescue!:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

Nudge the white vote over to the Republican side just a few points and you have a GOP win. We'd have needed close to a 50-point flip among Hispanics to beat Barack last time. Of course it would be "racist!" for the GOP to ever tell the truth: "we need to capture the white vote." Of course no one bats an eye when anyone says: "they need the black vote, hispanic vote, Jew vote, minority vote, etc."

On January 10 2016 21:45 GreenHorizons wrote:


The truth of the matter is that if Trump loses it would be the absurd reality, that Trump wins the republican nomination is all but a formality at this point (based on any and all conventional understanding of the process).

On January 11 2016 08:50 TheTenthDoc wrote:
The minority majority is coming (eventually) and the group is growing pretty rapidly.

On January 11 2016 08:50 TheTenthDoc wrote:


You should place some bets in the prediction markets then. I don't think any of them place him above 1:2 odds.

Also, conventional understanding of the process places quite a bit of value on endorsements, so I'm not sure how that makes Trump winning a formality.

As for appealing to Hispanics: courting the Hispanic vote has less to do with the current election and more to do with long-term strategy. The minority majority is coming (eventually) and the group is growing pretty rapidly. They also share quite a few core values with the modern day GOP when it comes to social issues so they're relatively low-hanging fruit from the party perspective compared to, say, Asian-Americans or African-Americans (though religious African-Americans are a powerful ally for the GOP).

On January 11 2016 09:26 Cowboy64 wrote:


I think the solution for the GOP would be to shut down immigration and encourage more childbirths among their base by offering more jobs, better benefits, etc.

Hence Trump.