US Politics Mega-thread - Page 1517

On December 12 2014 12:56 JonnyBNoHo wrote:

There were signs back in '06 / '07 that a recession was on the near horizon. For example, a flat yield curve.

If you think a recession or crisis is on the horizon now, I'd have to ask what makes you think that. Gut feeling? Or can you justify your opinion somehow?

On December 12 2014 13:07 JonnyBNoHo wrote:

Household debt is still below pre-crisis levels, and debt service is still quite low by historical standards. If you're worried about debt, you should be far more worried about Canada than the US.

On December 12 2014 13:26 JonnyBNoHo wrote:

Tax hikes and spending cuts have cut the deficit. We'll have to do more over the long run, but last I checked the Eurozone was more indebted.

On December 12 2014 13:32 IgnE wrote:


I don't know if you think a hindsight argument about the worst financial crisis we've had in 80 years helps your cause. I just wish we had you on record in 2007. Don't pretend like you knew it was coming. Maybe you were just a young jonny, thinking about business school. A jonny who couldn't be expected to have real insight in the economy at the time. At least we will have you on record for the next one.

Home ownership and wealth increases for the bottom 90% also at a historical low.

On December 12 2014 14:07 Nyxisto wrote:


The EU averages at 87% public debt which would put them well below the United States(at over 102 roughly). The comparison aside that doesn't change the fact that doubling your debt every decade with barely 1-2% real growth anywhere seems "a little" unsound.

On December 12 2014 14:17 JonnyBNoHo wrote:

I'm asking you to justify your opinion, not claim that I predicted the last crisis. It tells me a lot that you're already getting shitty.


You'll have to offer some explanation.

The home ownership rate varies by country and isn't correlated with crisis at all, so I'm not sure where you're going with that. Also, the rate in the US is around where it was in the 90's so I'm not sure why you think that's an issue. Also, home ownership means more mortgage debt and home ownership has historically carried a pretty crummy rate of return.

Yes, people haven't been saving much and wealth for most isn't going up. But that doesn't strike me as an issue that would have some near-term tipping point. The labor market continues to slowly improve, and savings seem to be improving along with it.

On December 12 2014 12:06 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Stick a fork in Obama as he's done for. The far right which comes in January will be no fan of is and won't to afraid to torpedo any type of bill like this. And he burned his bridge with the Progressives, which he will need to favor in hopes of type of air time with the new House and Senate.

Also he just backed for the repeal of every single reform that will still in place sine the Financial Crisis.

On December 12 2014 18:22 IgnE wrote:


What is correlated with crisis? Are you in the business of predicting crises? You are only discussing commonly accepted indicators of economic health, which itself only deals with growth and lack thereof. Underlying fragility is the problem: lack of wage growth, worldwide, lack of wealth in the bottom 90%, volatile energy prices, eurozone malaise.

On December 12 2014 18:22 IgnE wrote:


What is correlated with crisis? Are you in the business of predicting crises? You are only discussing commonly accepted indicators of economic health, which itself only deals with growth and lack thereof. Underlying fragility is the problem: lack of wage growth, worldwide, lack of wealth in the bottom 90%, volatile energy prices, eurozone malaise.

The U.S. Justice Department has confirmed that Indian tribes can decide to grow and sell marijuana on their lands as long as they follow the same federal conditions laid out for states that have legalized the drug.

Oregon U.S. Attorney Amanda Marshall said the announcement on Thursday addresses questions raised by tribes about how legalization of pot in states like Oregon, Washington and Colorado would apply to tribal lands.

Only a handful of tribes have expressed any interest in growing and selling marijuana, said Marshall, who co-chaired a group that developed the policy.

"That's been the primary message tribes are getting to us as U.S. attorneys," Marshall said from Portland. "What will the U.S. as federal partners do to assist tribes in protecting our children and families, our tribal businesses, our tribal housing? How will you help us combat marijuana abuse in Indian County when states are no longer there to partner with us?"

Marshall warned the announcement is not a green light to tribal authorities — and that marijuana is still illegal under federal law. The U.S. government's prosecution priorities involve pot-related gang activity, violence, sales to kids and trafficking continue, she said.

Problems could arise for tribes with lands in states that still outlaw marijuana, due to the likelihood that marijuana could be transported or sold outside tribal boundaries, she added.

Marshall said with 566 tribes around the country recognized by the federal government, there will be a lot of consulting going on between tribes and federal prosecutors. As sovereign nations, some tribes have their own police, some rely on federal law enforcement, and some call in state and local police.

WASHINGTON -- The fight over a subsidy for risky Wall Street derivatives trading isn't over quite yet. Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and David Vitter (R-La.) introduced an amendment Friday to strip out the controversial provision from the spending bill that would fund the government until next October.

The amendment forces Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to choose between holding a vote to strip out controversial changes to Dodd-Frank in the House-passed omnibus, or anger the progressive wing of his caucus. Reid had already signed off on the funding bill in its current form, and the White House has also backed the measure and urged its passage.

The House passed the $1.1 trillion omnibus spending bill Thursday, fending off a Democratic rebellion over riders that would roll back aspects of the Dodd-Frank reform and weaken campaign finance laws. Reid said he shared his colleagues' reservations but urged Democrats to support the bill's passage nonetheless.

"I don't support the weakening of Dodd-Frank and the restrictions on the District of Columbia and other things, but I didn't write this bill. The Senate Democrats didn't write this bill alone," Reid said on the Senate floor Friday. "It's a compromise. That is what legislation is all about."

A spokesman for Reid did not immediately return a request for comment when asked if he would allow a vote on the measure.

On December 13 2014 04:53 JonnyBNoHo wrote:

I don't just look to 'growth or lack thereof'.

Lack of wage growth and continued unemployment means that there is still plenty of slack in the labor market. As more people return to work more will have more money to spend and firms will have to compete harder for new hires. That points to continued expansion.

I'm not sure how lack of wealth will lead to a crisis. While problematic, that seems like an issue that will play out over decades rather than lead to an acute crisis. People will have to learn to save more and / or delay retirement. Sounds more like a social issue rather than an economic issue.

Commodity prices seem to have turned in our favor. We've been held back by the commodity boom over the past two decades. The next leg of falling prices should help the US economy as a whole. It effectively means a raise for consumers and gives the Fed more room to keep rates low.

Yeah, the Eurozone is still in rough shape. Maybe you should be predicting crisis there? They haven't done a good job at capitalizing their banks either. Greece is at least showing signs of life (finally), fwiw.

Also, the era of government austerity seems to be over. Government spending isn't retarding growth anymore which may offset some weakness in other areas.

On December 13 2014 08:45 IgnE wrote:


If we knew what would cause the next crisis and knew when it was coming we would alreadt be in crisis.

Lack of wealth doesn't cause economic crisis; it changes the politics of crisis. As the disenfranchised become further separated from the properity of the few, they are less likely to accept the elite's bargained resolution of future crises.

True crisis in the Eurozone is a crisis for everyone. No one here is worried about a wholly American crisis.

But you have heard it here folks, continued unemployment and lack of wage growth signals future expansion. All those returning to work for lower wages will have more money to spend.

On December 13 2014 03:16 RvB wrote:

Why would baby boomers liquidate their assets? Theyll probably only liquidate the parts they need and that money goes into other assets.