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On May 26 2025 19:28 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2025 19:25 TMNT wrote:On May 26 2025 19:20 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On May 26 2025 19:04 Bonyth wrote:
People really use tournament statistics to defend the balance and protoss race? We have 20+ years of tournament statistics, least protoss champions, least protoss bonjwas.
But hey, 'you are not looking at the statistics correctly, look at them in the way i look at them: most protoss representatives in ro376'. you are trying to confirm your bias instead of looking at data objectively. If you want accurate data, look at everything. Ultimate Battle, Chinese spons, Kcm, proleagues, other tournaments, etc. Looking at just one single subset of data to draw conclusions is not accurate. In the remastered era 99% of play is online. Take the online data into consideration because thats where most of the competition happens. ASL is the most premier tournament, but its data is not more important than the rest. Heck, most competitors perform worse in ASL than they do in online competition, in the comfort of their own home and own set-up. Judging players on their ability to play in a sub-optimal environment is going to create inaccurate data. It just shows which individuals can perform best in that sub-optimal environment. I'm surprised you said this when you know full well the global PvZ win rate on eloboard is 47.4% out of 25k games that cover all of the tournaments above. didnt we also once reduce the pool of players used in the data to top 5 for each race and get even closer to 50%, by removing weak links like ysc and tyson for example. Also 47.4% is quite close to 50/50. also zerg has 44.9% vs terran. statistically thats, based on your argument, much worse, which it is. also if we look at statistics by map, we do see maps that have negative zerg winratea. Citadel, invader, butter, blitz y, tempest, minstrel, Revolver for example. Apocalypse seems most balanced at 50.8%
I dont remember doing that, but I did something like that only for ASL/KSL though, and the conclusion points towards my argument iirc. Might want to do that again.
Global win rates will always converge to something around 50 +/- 5% unless the matchup starts with something like 4 Drones vs 3 Probes. The reason is tier 1 players will always beat tier 2/3 players regardless of the imbalance. So tier 1 players of race A beat tier 2/3 players of race B, and vice versa, and they even out to some extent.
Like many people said, BW is "slightly" imbalanced so that skill gap can make up for that imbalance. Hell, the skill gap can even make up for the 3 Probes vs 4 Drones situation, as Koreans have demonstrated it against the Chinese players. But you go up and up the ladder, the skill gap narrows down, and the imbalance starts to manifest, that's where I think tournament results can be applied. We saw that in KCM (literally a race vs race tourney) and all the Starleagues.
But for me, tournament results or win rates are always only parts of the argument. I find it silly to say something like "hey, Snow lost to Soulkey 3 in a row so PvZ is imba", and equally silly is the counter argument "but Mini beat Queen 4-1 4-1 and beat Effort 4-0 so it's not". I always look at the gameplay aspect as well. For example, Snow lost to Soulkey earlier this ASL but if I have to choose one game to highlight the imba of PvZ it'd be the Dominator game where Snow won. Likewise, Best had the chance to 4-1 Soulkey in this finals, but even had he done so, it's not a good demonstration as to P has a fair chance vs Z. On the contrary, Best can lose to Soulkey 10 times in a row and I wouldn't use that sole result as evidence of PvZ balance, because Best is not tier 1 PvZ.
And yes, for ZvT, it's bad for Zerg as well and is another issue.
The maps you listed are indeed better for P in PvZ, but they belong to the smaller portion in the map pool unfortunately.
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I wish we could just make Revolver as the bog standard map type of BW, maintain that status for a few years, see what happens.
- If the game is more balanced, then good, we solve the problem.
- If P dominates and Z and T fans start talking about balance, maybe that's when I can use the exact argument that they are using now: "Hey the win rate is still close to 50%" or "PvT, PvZ is not P favored, it's just Snow who is imba, just get good bros", or "But Hero just beat Snow 4-1 in a series just last week, so it's still doable for Zerg", or "the metas for T and Z are too stale now we need some revolution".... or the worst one "T and Z just are less talented"
Literally, in an alternate universe where P won 60% of the tournaments, those same arguments could be used in the reverse way - hence they are worthless, in this unverse of that universe.
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On May 26 2025 19:28 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2025 19:25 TMNT wrote:On May 26 2025 19:20 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On May 26 2025 19:04 Bonyth wrote:
People really use tournament statistics to defend the balance and protoss race? We have 20+ years of tournament statistics, least protoss champions, least protoss bonjwas.
But hey, 'you are not looking at the statistics correctly, look at them in the way i look at them: most protoss representatives in ro376'. you are trying to confirm your bias instead of looking at data objectively. If you want accurate data, look at everything. Ultimate Battle, Chinese spons, Kcm, proleagues, other tournaments, etc. Looking at just one single subset of data to draw conclusions is not accurate. In the remastered era 99% of play is online. Take the online data into consideration because thats where most of the competition happens. ASL is the most premier tournament, but its data is not more important than the rest. Heck, most competitors perform worse in ASL than they do in online competition, in the comfort of their own home and own set-up. Judging players on their ability to play in a sub-optimal environment is going to create inaccurate data. It just shows which individuals can perform best in that sub-optimal environment. I'm surprised you said this when you know full well the global PvZ win rate on eloboard is 47.4% out of 25k games that cover all of the tournaments above. didnt we also once reduce the pool of players used in the data to top 5 for each race and get even closer to 50%, by removing weak links like ysc and tyson for example. Also 47.4% is quite close to 50/50. also zerg has 44.9% vs terran. statistically thats, based on your argument, much worse, which it is. also if we look at statistics by map, we do see maps that have negative zerg winratea. Citadel, invader, butter, blitz y, tempest, minstrel, Revolver for example. Apocalypse seems most balanced at 50.8%
I think the fact that PvT is disadvantageous in that data set severely undermines its validity. Protoss has a natural advantage over terran, so if the data doesn't reflect that then it must be heavily scrutinized. My guess is that there are too many different levels of skill included to conclude anything about matchup imbalances. Only the best players (top 5/10/20 or something in that vicinity) can play well enough to reflect a race's true strength. Everybody else taints the data with their lack of strategic understanding.
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On May 26 2025 14:19 LpTraxamillion wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2025 14:07 HOLYBATS wrote:
Comparing different era is silly. I hope Flash returns next season and we will have some competition. Why is it silly? It is the exact same game it ever was and you can literally watch replays to judge the quality of play. So many fans have rose tinted glasses when it comes to kespa, the nostalgia overrides objectivity
It's the same game but the player pools are not the same.
I agree with your argument that players now are not worse, if not better than in the past. But that doesn't make the comparison any more valid though.
- Soulkey 2025 (34 year-old mechanics + 34 year-old game knowledge) > Soulkey 2010 (19 y mechanics + 19 y knowledge). That's for sure.
- But Soulkey 2025 (34 y mechanics + 34 y knowledge) is very likely < Soulkey 2010 (19 y mechanics + same knowledge as 34 years old Soulkey)
That's the first reason why you can't compare. Players now have more tools in their lockers.
The second reason is there's no new influx of players. If they Kespa system was maintained up until now, we would probably see some dude born in the 2000s wiping the floors with the likes of Soulkey Flash Snow and literally putting them into retirement (sad but true lol). Hell, we even kind of saw that with the likes of Nada Boxer etc. That's why competing and maintaining top status in Kespa is an unrivalled challenge.
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Protoss has a natural advantage over terran
[citation needed]
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tbh there are reasons to talk about balance but this finals isn't one of them
the best player in the world just won a very close 4-3 series vs someone not particularly known for his strength in this matchup
like, just from this one result we should conclude that P>Z, right?
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On May 26 2025 20:34 Kraekkling wrote:[ citation needed] --- tbh there are reasons to talk about balance but this finals isn't one of them the best player in the world just won a very close 4-3 series vs someone not particularly known for his strength in this matchup like, just from this one result we should conclude that P>Z, right?
Exactly.
Hence I hope my fellow PvZ whiners argue more wisely, otherwise we are shooting ourselves in the feet.
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On May 26 2025 20:34 Kraekkling wrote:[ citation needed] --- tbh there are reasons to talk about balance but this finals isn't one of them the best player in the world just won a very close 4-3 series vs someone not particularly known for his strength in this matchup like, just from this one result we should conclude that P>Z, right?
Post-Kespa protoss players have severely underperformed because they didn't have enough talent. Terran had Flash, Light, Sharp and a few others, while Zerg had Jaedong (later replaced by Effort/Queen/Soma/Soulkey).
But all the top protoss players except for Bisu fell off. Rain was inactive, Stork gave up, Best has always been 2nd tier.
Then Mini and Snow came around and they revived the protoss race. Snow in particular has consistently shown for many years that protoss should in fact, win more often than not against terran. He was never proven wrong by anyone. He mops the floor with the biggest calibers such as Flash. Even Light can't overcome the natural protoss advantage whenever he faces Snow. Or do you think Snow is just so much better than Light? No, Light has a positive record against all protoss players except for Snow.
Snow has figured out how to play PvT correctly. He is the best proof that terran should be afraid of protoss.
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Just another tear in the sea of protoss' lack of accomplishments :')
On May 26 2025 20:45 Magic Powers wrote:
Post-Kespa protoss players have severely underperformed because they didn't have enough talent. Terran had Flash, Light, Sharp and a few others, while Zerg had Jaedong (later replaced by Effort/Queen/Soma/Soulkey).
But all the top protoss players except for Bisu fell off. Rain was inactive, Stork gave up, Best has always been 2nd tier.
Then Mini and Snow came around and they revived the protoss race. Snow in particular has consistently shown for many years that protoss should in fact, win more often than not against terran. He was never proven wrong by anyone. He mops the floor with the biggest calibers such as Flash. Even Light can't overcome the natural protoss advantage whenever he faces Snow. Or do you think Snow is just so much better than Light? No, Light has a positive record against all protoss players except for Snow.
Snow has figured out how to play PvT correctly. He is the best proof that terran should be afraid of protoss.
Super subjective. Protoss players just didn't have enough talent (despite the biggest player pool). Talk about coincidence. One of the arguments that triggers me :D
Anyway, even if true, balance is done around the top, even if all of them are just naturally gifted.
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On May 26 2025 20:45 Magic Powers wrote:
Post-Kespa protoss players have severely underperformed because they didn't have enough talent. Terran had Flash, Light, Sharp and a few others, while Zerg had Jaedong (later replaced by Effort/Queen/Soma/Soulkey).
But all the top protoss players except for Bisu fell off. Rain was inactive, Stork gave up, Best has always been 2nd tier.
Then Mini and Snow came around and they revived the protoss race. Snow in particular has consistently shown for many years that protoss should in fact, win more often than not against terran. He was never proven wrong by anyone. He mops the floor with the biggest calibers such as Flash. Even Light can't overcome the natural protoss advantage whenever he faces Snow. Or do you think Snow is just so much better than Light? No, Light has a positive record against all protoss players except for Snow.
Snow has figured out how to play PvT correctly. He is the best proof that terran should be afraid of protoss.
I mean, this post contains false information and already contradicts itself doesn't it?
You said Protoss don't have enough talents but already listed 3: Bisu, Snow, Mini.
Terran have: Flash yes, Light yes, but no, not Sharp. For the few others, probably yes. Tbh I don't know why Terran seem to have many one-season-wonder-ish type (Rush/JYJ/Royal/Mind), but overall they are also no more, if not less talented than "2nd-tier Best".
Zerg have: Jaedong no (he fell off as well), Effort no (just as many ASL and as inactive as Rain), Soma no (top 3 of the race for sure but hasn't achieved more in ASL than "2nd-tier Best"), so only Queen and Soulkey.
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On May 26 2025 21:00 TMNT wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2025 20:45 Magic Powers wrote:
Post-Kespa protoss players have severely underperformed because they didn't have enough talent. Terran had Flash, Light, Sharp and a few others, while Zerg had Jaedong (later replaced by Effort/Queen/Soma/Soulkey).
But all the top protoss players except for Bisu fell off. Rain was inactive, Stork gave up, Best has always been 2nd tier.
Then Mini and Snow came around and they revived the protoss race. Snow in particular has consistently shown for many years that protoss should in fact, win more often than not against terran. He was never proven wrong by anyone. He mops the floor with the biggest calibers such as Flash. Even Light can't overcome the natural protoss advantage whenever he faces Snow. Or do you think Snow is just so much better than Light? No, Light has a positive record against all protoss players except for Snow.
Snow has figured out how to play PvT correctly. He is the best proof that terran should be afraid of protoss. I mean, this post contains false information and already contradicts itself doesn't it? You said Protoss don't have enough talents but already listed 3: Bisu, Snow, Mini. Terran have: Flash yes, Light yes, but no, not Sharp. For the few others, probably yes. Tbh I don't know why Terran seem to have many one-season-wonder-ish type (Rush/JYJ/Royal/Mind), but overall they are also no more, if not less talented than "2nd-tier Best". Zerg have: Jaedong no (he fell off as well), Effort no (just as many ASL and as inactive as Rain), Soma no (top 3 of the race for sure but hasn't achieved more in ASL than "2nd-tier Best"), so only Queen and Soulkey.
I didn't say protoss "doesn't" have enough talents, I said it didn't previously have enough talent. Prior to Mini, prior to Snow, before those players popped off.
Likewise I was talking about the past years prior to Mini, prior to Snow, when I was talking about Sharp.
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and hero. And Soma is there also for sure.
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On May 26 2025 21:06 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2025 21:00 TMNT wrote:On May 26 2025 20:45 Magic Powers wrote:
Post-Kespa protoss players have severely underperformed because they didn't have enough talent. Terran had Flash, Light, Sharp and a few others, while Zerg had Jaedong (later replaced by Effort/Queen/Soma/Soulkey).
But all the top protoss players except for Bisu fell off. Rain was inactive, Stork gave up, Best has always been 2nd tier.
Then Mini and Snow came around and they revived the protoss race. Snow in particular has consistently shown for many years that protoss should in fact, win more often than not against terran. He was never proven wrong by anyone. He mops the floor with the biggest calibers such as Flash. Even Light can't overcome the natural protoss advantage whenever he faces Snow. Or do you think Snow is just so much better than Light? No, Light has a positive record against all protoss players except for Snow.
Snow has figured out how to play PvT correctly. He is the best proof that terran should be afraid of protoss. I mean, this post contains false information and already contradicts itself doesn't it? You said Protoss don't have enough talents but already listed 3: Bisu, Snow, Mini. Terran have: Flash yes, Light yes, but no, not Sharp. For the few others, probably yes. Tbh I don't know why Terran seem to have many one-season-wonder-ish type (Rush/JYJ/Royal/Mind), but overall they are also no more, if not less talented than "2nd-tier Best". Zerg have: Jaedong no (he fell off as well), Effort no (just as many ASL and as inactive as Rain), Soma no (top 3 of the race for sure but hasn't achieved more in ASL than "2nd-tier Best"), so only Queen and Soulkey. I didn't say protoss "doesn't" have enough talents, I said it didn't previously have enough talent. Prior to Mini, prior to Snow, before those players popped off. Likewise I was talking about the past years prior to Mini, prior to Snow, when I was talking about Sharp.
Snow and Mini became tier 1 player around ASL5, so you're basically talking about the period from the dark age of BW to ASL4?
Where Light was still a Ro24 player, Queen was in the military, Sharp is no more a valid example than Shuttle (who actually beat him and remained a tier 1 player until his military service), Soma didn't even exist, Soulkey was as strong as Best?
You're just mixing up periods then.
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On May 26 2025 20:32 TMNT wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2025 14:19 LpTraxamillion wrote:On May 26 2025 14:07 HOLYBATS wrote:
Comparing different era is silly. I hope Flash returns next season and we will have some competition. Why is it silly? It is the exact same game it ever was and you can literally watch replays to judge the quality of play. So many fans have rose tinted glasses when it comes to kespa, the nostalgia overrides objectivity It's the same game but the player pools are not the same. I agree with your argument that players now are not worse, if not better than in the past. But that doesn't make the comparison any more valid though. - Soulkey 2025 (34 year-old mechanics + 34 year-old game knowledge) > Soulkey 2010 (19 y mechanics + 19 y knowledge). That's for sure. - But Soulkey 2025 (34 y mechanics + 34 y knowledge) is very likely < Soulkey 2010 (19 y mechanics + same knowledge as 34 years old Soulkey) That's the first reason why you can't compare. Players now have more tools in their lockers. The second reason is there's no new influx of players. If they Kespa system was maintained up until now, we would probably see some dude born in the 2000s wiping the floors with the likes of Soulkey Flash Snow and literally putting them into retirement (sad but true lol). Hell, we even kind of saw that with the likes of Nada Boxer etc. That's why competing and maintaining top status in Kespa is an unrivalled challenge.
Actually Lets look at League of Legends as an example.
In league we still have a steady influx of new talent, yet we still see the veterans from 5-8 years ago dominate in competitive. There is a ceiling to the maximim achievable skill. after the first few years where players are figuring out the game and its capabilities, player reach maximum skill potential. Sometimes, but very very rarely, the maximum skill ceiling can be marginally broken through and raised a tiny bit.
We see this too at the highest level of combat sports were the generally oldee fighters around 30 and just above hold champion belts for longer periods of time, even though there is a masssive influx of new talent cycling into the professional scenes.
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On May 26 2025 20:32 TMNT wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2025 14:19 LpTraxamillion wrote:On May 26 2025 14:07 HOLYBATS wrote:
Comparing different era is silly. I hope Flash returns next season and we will have some competition. Why is it silly? It is the exact same game it ever was and you can literally watch replays to judge the quality of play. So many fans have rose tinted glasses when it comes to kespa, the nostalgia overrides objectivity It's the same game but the player pools are not the same. I agree with your argument that players now are not worse, if not better than in the past. But that doesn't make the comparison any more valid though. - Soulkey 2025 (34 year-old mechanics + 34 year-old game knowledge) > Soulkey 2010 (19 y mechanics + 19 y knowledge). That's for sure. - But Soulkey 2025 (34 y mechanics + 34 y knowledge) is very likely < Soulkey 2010 (19 y mechanics + same knowledge as 34 years old Soulkey) That's the first reason why you can't compare. Players now have more tools in their lockers. The second reason is there's no new influx of players. If they Kespa system was maintained up until now, we would probably see some dude born in the 2000s wiping the floors with the likes of Soulkey Flash Snow and literally putting them into retirement (sad but true lol). Hell, we even kind of saw that with the likes of Nada Boxer etc. That's why competing and maintaining top status in Kespa is an unrivalled challenge.
Facts.
Obvious facts
But facts
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You guys are arguing over non-sense. The fact of the matter is pretty clear: all of the modern mappools used in the remastered era except two seasons (one ASL, one KSL) have been created in a way that favors Terran overall and punishes Protoss against Zerg. (sometimes badly - wink wink Benzene, sometimes slightly)
Change that and you are going to get different outcomes. Soulkey is the best Zerg ever (imo) but he has never been as dominant as Flash and we'll never get to that level. Just accept that the best 16 players are who they are and optimize the mappools for the best tournament settings and keep gargling that Hot6.
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On May 26 2025 21:00 TMNT wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2025 20:45 Magic Powers wrote:
Post-Kespa protoss players have severely underperformed because they didn't have enough talent. Terran had Flash, Light, Sharp and a few others, while Zerg had Jaedong (later replaced by Effort/Queen/Soma/Soulkey).
But all the top protoss players except for Bisu fell off. Rain was inactive, Stork gave up, Best has always been 2nd tier.
Then Mini and Snow came around and they revived the protoss race. Snow in particular has consistently shown for many years that protoss should in fact, win more often than not against terran. He was never proven wrong by anyone. He mops the floor with the biggest calibers such as Flash. Even Light can't overcome the natural protoss advantage whenever he faces Snow. Or do you think Snow is just so much better than Light? No, Light has a positive record against all protoss players except for Snow.
Snow has figured out how to play PvT correctly. He is the best proof that terran should be afraid of protoss. I mean, this post contains false information and already contradicts itself doesn't it? You said Protoss don't have enough talents but already listed 3: Bisu, Snow, Mini. Terran have: Flash yes, Light yes, but no, not Sharp. For the few others, probably yes. Tbh I don't know why Terran seem to have many one-season-wonder-ish type (Rush/JYJ/Royal/Mind), but overall they are also no more, if not less talented than "2nd-tier Best". Zerg have: Jaedong no (he fell off as well), Effort no (just as many ASL and as inactive as Rain), Soma no (top 3 of the race for sure but hasn't achieved more in ASL than "2nd-tier Best"), so only Queen and Soulkey.
Forgetting about Hero? Just because he lost 3-4 to SK in the finals doesn't make him not good at the game. He's just as good as BeSt or Snow
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On May 27 2025 00:38 oxKnu wrote:
You guys are arguing over non-sense. The fact of the matter is pretty clear: all of the modern mappools used in the remastered era except two seasons (one ASL, one KSL) have been created in a way that favors Terran overall and punishes Protoss against Zerg. (sometimes badly - wink wink Benzene, sometimes slightly)
Change that and you are going to get different outcomes. Soulkey is the best Zerg ever (imo) but he has never been as dominant as Flash and we'll never get to that level. Just accept that the best 16 players are who they are and optimize the mappools for the best tournament settings and keep gargling that Hot6.
4 straight ASL tournament wins is as dominant as anyone has ever been
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I just wish Soulkey looked dominant in a way that wasn’t abusing the broken matchup. Getting to hydra bust your way to free contain, delaying upgrades, and contain toss until they mine out 2 base and have to push to mine at all.
Snow has reaver control that sets him apart, Terran have certain styles and timings that set them apart. But every ZvP is Hero or SK or Queen just hydra busting with 0 downside then transitioning into whatever they want.
Maps can’t fix it either, Toss have to go back to the drawing board on builds bc this meta is broken, blatantly.
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I like how terrans here only try to put more gasoline into this discussion to distract from tesagi
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Oh man that was such a heartbreak. I felt BeSt was gonna lose the whole way, just a bad feeling about it even when he was up 3-2.
Congrats to Soulkey, though i can’t wait to see him finally fall.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/iHIipgJ.png)
