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Terran wins in spongames, not asl? why? - Page 2

Forum Index > BW General
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TMNT
Profile Joined January 2021
2904 Posts
August 31 2021 09:08 GMT
#21
On August 31 2021 09:32 Essbee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 31 2021 06:30 oxKnu wrote:
Terran is without question the strongest race in this game and also generally very robust against a lot of 'new' builds, since the Terran replies to a lot of stuff kind of stay the same.

And naturally people play on the same maps A LOT. Like a lot, every day, many games. So it only makes sense that in the long run Terran players would have the best results since they get to realize their equity on those maps in all match-ups by the time everyone probes the most viable strategies on them.

This is a fundamental game theory concept. In the long run, the strongest competitor will prevail.


I could get behind this theory if Flash and Light weren't also the best protosses.

Wait. What? No they weren't. How did you get this idea?
oxKnu
Profile Joined December 2017
1207 Posts
August 31 2021 09:54 GMT
#22
An interesting thought idea about Flash.

I was thinking what would happen if he was to play either Zerg or Protoss in any of the ASL's he participated in.

I think he could win 3 titles with Zerg but only one with Protoss. Although I could be wrong, he would certainly be more creative with Protoss than any of the current pros I think.
Anc13nt
Profile Blog Joined October 2017
1557 Posts
August 31 2021 10:48 GMT
#23
On August 31 2021 17:51 fLyiNgDroNe wrote:
You can't simply remove Flash from the equation without accepting your data is going to be flawed. Flash is responsible for many other terrans eliminated from the competition. E.g. in some of those ASL wins where Flash won, some other terrans could have won too.


that's true but the same can be said for the protoss/zerg players he beat
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4441 Posts
August 31 2021 13:12 GMT
#24
Why is the right side of the image cropped out? Is it too inconvenient for the point?
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
Puosu
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
6986 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-08-31 13:31:50
August 31 2021 13:30 GMT
#25
Another way to look at ASL race success
[image loading]
fLyiNgDroNe
Profile Joined September 2005
Belgium4020 Posts
August 31 2021 13:37 GMT
#26
On August 31 2021 19:48 Anc13nt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 31 2021 17:51 fLyiNgDroNe wrote:
You can't simply remove Flash from the equation without accepting your data is going to be flawed. Flash is responsible for many other terrans eliminated from the competition. E.g. in some of those ASL wins where Flash won, some other terrans could have won too.


that's true but the same can be said for the protoss/zerg players he beat


no
removing any data does not mean the same outcome. There is 0 proof that the effect of Flash knocking out a Terran and and a Z/P is the same.
Drone is a way of living
oxKnu
Profile Joined December 2017
1207 Posts
August 31 2021 13:53 GMT
#27
It would be interesting to see comparisons between KSL and ASL. Since KSL never had Flash but had all other Terrans near their peak.

Also the KSL format was way more in-tune with the better player winning since the series were never Bo1 and the maps were always standard or played to death already.
Essbee
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
Canada2371 Posts
August 31 2021 13:58 GMT
#28
On August 31 2021 18:08 TMNT wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 31 2021 09:32 Essbee wrote:
On August 31 2021 06:30 oxKnu wrote:
Terran is without question the strongest race in this game and also generally very robust against a lot of 'new' builds, since the Terran replies to a lot of stuff kind of stay the same.

And naturally people play on the same maps A LOT. Like a lot, every day, many games. So it only makes sense that in the long run Terran players would have the best results since they get to realize their equity on those maps in all match-ups by the time everyone probes the most viable strategies on them.

This is a fundamental game theory concept. In the long run, the strongest competitor will prevail.


I could get behind this theory if Flash and Light weren't also the best protosses.

Wait. What? No they weren't. How did you get this idea?


By watching them play. They are both better at PvT than anyone else, especially Light.
outscar
Profile Joined September 2014
2832 Posts
August 31 2021 14:12 GMT
#29
So no one is going to talk about FlaSh's random is on 2nd spot? He is not human.
sunbeams are never made like me...
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4441 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-08-31 14:25:45
August 31 2021 14:25 GMT
#30
On August 31 2021 23:12 outscar wrote:
So no one is going to talk about FlaSh's random is on 2nd spot? He is not human.


It's an inconvenient fact, a curveball if you will. Imbalance-theorists tend to ignore these curveballs.
Just the fact alone that Flash has a 75% terran winrate and no one comes even close. That's not being talked about, if anything imbalance-theorists like to remove his games to see if that better supports their views.
Whatever can be done to support a personal bias.
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
Puosu
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
6986 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-08-31 14:50:07
August 31 2021 14:49 GMT
#31
On August 31 2021 22:58 Essbee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 31 2021 18:08 TMNT wrote:
On August 31 2021 09:32 Essbee wrote:
On August 31 2021 06:30 oxKnu wrote:
Terran is without question the strongest race in this game and also generally very robust against a lot of 'new' builds, since the Terran replies to a lot of stuff kind of stay the same.

And naturally people play on the same maps A LOT. Like a lot, every day, many games. So it only makes sense that in the long run Terran players would have the best results since they get to realize their equity on those maps in all match-ups by the time everyone probes the most viable strategies on them.

This is a fundamental game theory concept. In the long run, the strongest competitor will prevail.


I could get behind this theory if Flash and Light weren't also the best protosses.

Wait. What? No they weren't. How did you get this idea?


By watching them play. They are both better at PvT than anyone else, especially Light.

But it seems unlikely that Light would keep playing terran if he believes that his protoss is better, given that there's a monetary incentive for doing as well as possible in leagues etc.

Are there any statistics for Light's protoss matches?
Puosu
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
6986 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-08-31 15:17:24
August 31 2021 15:16 GMT
#32
Just looking at the stats posted in the op, the mean win% of the players:
protoss 52.3%
zerg 54.26%
terran 52.9%
terran without FlaSh 49.2%

But, again looking at only the %s in the op, even the difference between terran without FlaSh and zerg is not statistically significant (p=0.089).

Of course this kinda stuff should be done with better data.
Essbee
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
Canada2371 Posts
August 31 2021 16:16 GMT
#33
On August 31 2021 23:49 Puosu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 31 2021 22:58 Essbee wrote:
On August 31 2021 18:08 TMNT wrote:
On August 31 2021 09:32 Essbee wrote:
On August 31 2021 06:30 oxKnu wrote:
Terran is without question the strongest race in this game and also generally very robust against a lot of 'new' builds, since the Terran replies to a lot of stuff kind of stay the same.

And naturally people play on the same maps A LOT. Like a lot, every day, many games. So it only makes sense that in the long run Terran players would have the best results since they get to realize their equity on those maps in all match-ups by the time everyone probes the most viable strategies on them.

This is a fundamental game theory concept. In the long run, the strongest competitor will prevail.


I could get behind this theory if Flash and Light weren't also the best protosses.

Wait. What? No they weren't. How did you get this idea?


By watching them play. They are both better at PvT than anyone else, especially Light.

But it seems unlikely that Light would keep playing terran if he believes that his protoss is better, given that there's a monetary incentive for doing as well as possible in leagues etc.

Are there any statistics for Light's protoss matches?


I didn't say he was better at protoss than terran. But I will admit that they are probably not the best in PvZ, the matchup needs a lot more practice. Mini and Bisu are probably still much better, but their PvT is high-end.

As far as I am concerned, Flash beating Snow in PvP in the ASL was the nail in the coffin when it comes to imbalance talks. Some players are just a lot more talented than others.
Steeles21600
Profile Joined August 2018
52 Posts
August 31 2021 16:58 GMT
#34
On August 31 2021 09:24 FyRe_DragOn wrote:
why dont we take out the strongest players from Z and P and look at how bad their stats are too?


There are many more protoss and especially zerg players above 50% winrate than terran, so it would probably still be bad for terran.

I am coming to agreement with some of the other posters that it has to do with new, unorthadox maps destroying terran winrate in ASL while spongames are on standard maps.
I just hope everyone has a good time :)
Steeles21600
Profile Joined August 2018
52 Posts
August 31 2021 17:00 GMT
#35
On August 31 2021 18:54 oxKnu wrote:
An interesting thought idea about Flash.

I was thinking what would happen if he was to play either Zerg or Protoss in any of the ASL's he participated in.

I think he could win 3 titles with Zerg but only one with Protoss. Although I could be wrong, he would certainly be more creative with Protoss than any of the current pros I think.


Obviously given time he could potentially come up with diffrent starts, but flash is very consistent. What he does with a race doesnt represent its aggregate performance, thats the whole point of this topic. We saw snippets in his random, where he beat some protosses in PvP.
I just hope everyone has a good time :)
Steeles21600
Profile Joined August 2018
52 Posts
August 31 2021 17:02 GMT
#36
On August 31 2021 23:25 Magic Powers wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 31 2021 23:12 outscar wrote:
So no one is going to talk about FlaSh's random is on 2nd spot? He is not human.


It's an inconvenient fact, a curveball if you will. Imbalance-theorists tend to ignore these curveballs.
Just the fact alone that Flash has a 75% terran winrate and no one comes even close. That's not being talked about, if anything imbalance-theorists like to remove his games to see if that better supports their views.
Whatever can be done to support a personal bias.


When your looking at data, you remove the outliers. Flash is just one person, his stategies should be considered but his personal performance is reasonable to be removed.

Additonally, this post is bringing notice to terrans abnormally HIGH winrate, as contrasted to the ASL. If anything, this is more a question or terrans strength rather than its weakness.
I just hope everyone has a good time :)
Steeles21600
Profile Joined August 2018
52 Posts
August 31 2021 17:04 GMT
#37
On August 31 2021 22:12 Magic Powers wrote:
Why is the right side of the image cropped out? Is it too inconvenient for the point?


I messed up and didnt upload the full image. I will post the full stats right here.

https://yt3.ggpht.com/72jjHAJ5unHWl8djMfdvbtduwBDdiQ1UcY4Lo1OcKdJj-p6iMS2to1QnI3jzZhAnI2qWMcaSJaeDTQ=s640-nd
I just hope everyone has a good time :)
TMNT
Profile Joined January 2021
2904 Posts
August 31 2021 17:05 GMT
#38
On September 01 2021 01:16 Essbee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 31 2021 23:49 Puosu wrote:
On August 31 2021 22:58 Essbee wrote:
On August 31 2021 18:08 TMNT wrote:
On August 31 2021 09:32 Essbee wrote:
On August 31 2021 06:30 oxKnu wrote:
Terran is without question the strongest race in this game and also generally very robust against a lot of 'new' builds, since the Terran replies to a lot of stuff kind of stay the same.

And naturally people play on the same maps A LOT. Like a lot, every day, many games. So it only makes sense that in the long run Terran players would have the best results since they get to realize their equity on those maps in all match-ups by the time everyone probes the most viable strategies on them.

This is a fundamental game theory concept. In the long run, the strongest competitor will prevail.


I could get behind this theory if Flash and Light weren't also the best protosses.

Wait. What? No they weren't. How did you get this idea?


By watching them play. They are both better at PvT than anyone else, especially Light.

But it seems unlikely that Light would keep playing terran if he believes that his protoss is better, given that there's a monetary incentive for doing as well as possible in leagues etc.

Are there any statistics for Light's protoss matches?


I didn't say he was better at protoss than terran. But I will admit that they are probably not the best in PvZ, the matchup needs a lot more practice. Mini and Bisu are probably still much better, but their PvT is high-end.

As far as I am concerned, Flash beating Snow in PvP in the ASL was the nail in the coffin when it comes to imbalance talks. Some players are just a lot more talented than others.

Flash beat Snow as RvP, not PvP, and it has nothing to do with balance talks. Some people just like to bring that false fact out as a mean to say Flash is the best Protoss which is ridiculous.

In addition:
- Game 1 Flash won off a hidden base. It was a strategic win, a one-off tournament build. It proved nothing skill-wise.
- Game 2 was on a 4 player map, so Snow chose to go 12 Nexus, but then Flash randomed into Protoss again which put Snow into a very difficult position (you rarely escape with 12 Nexus in PvP at pro level).

Let Flash pick Protoss and have a BO9 with Snow and we're talking.
Steeles21600
Profile Joined August 2018
52 Posts
August 31 2021 17:07 GMT
#39
On August 31 2021 22:58 Essbee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 31 2021 18:08 TMNT wrote:
On August 31 2021 09:32 Essbee wrote:
On August 31 2021 06:30 oxKnu wrote:
Terran is without question the strongest race in this game and also generally very robust against a lot of 'new' builds, since the Terran replies to a lot of stuff kind of stay the same.

And naturally people play on the same maps A LOT. Like a lot, every day, many games. So it only makes sense that in the long run Terran players would have the best results since they get to realize their equity on those maps in all match-ups by the time everyone probes the most viable strategies on them.

This is a fundamental game theory concept. In the long run, the strongest competitor will prevail.


I could get behind this theory if Flash and Light weren't also the best protosses.

Wait. What? No they weren't. How did you get this idea?


By watching them play. They are both better at PvT than anyone else, especially Light.


Light isnt the best protoss, because he stopped playing protoss and only played then because he viewed the map pool as so bad for terran that it would be better to play protoss. Flash's protoss was actually commented on by zero in a video jinjin once uploaded and being "nothing special". Im sure given more time they could become very good players in their races, but if they were so supposedly good at protoss but then still chose terran to win, that just backs up tesagi as an argument.
I just hope everyone has a good time :)
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
834 Posts
August 31 2021 17:10 GMT
#40
On September 01 2021 02:07 Steeles21600 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 31 2021 22:58 Essbee wrote:
On August 31 2021 18:08 TMNT wrote:
On August 31 2021 09:32 Essbee wrote:
On August 31 2021 06:30 oxKnu wrote:
Terran is without question the strongest race in this game and also generally very robust against a lot of 'new' builds, since the Terran replies to a lot of stuff kind of stay the same.

And naturally people play on the same maps A LOT. Like a lot, every day, many games. So it only makes sense that in the long run Terran players would have the best results since they get to realize their equity on those maps in all match-ups by the time everyone probes the most viable strategies on them.

This is a fundamental game theory concept. In the long run, the strongest competitor will prevail.


I could get behind this theory if Flash and Light weren't also the best protosses.

Wait. What? No they weren't. How did you get this idea?


By watching them play. They are both better at PvT than anyone else, especially Light.


Light isnt the best protoss, because he stopped playing protoss and only played then because he viewed the map pool as so bad for terran that it would be better to play protoss. Flash's protoss was actually commented on by zero in a video jinjin once uploaded and being "nothing special". Im sure given more time they could become very good players in their races, but if they were so supposedly good at protoss but then still chose terran to win, that just backs up tesagi as an argument.

Yeah, Light literally went Protoss for a while and couldn't even qualify for the tournament he was going for. Pure bait.
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