On April 12 2012 13:37 white_horse wrote: They are trying to put in SC2 mainly because it would be easier to attract sponsors; it's difficult to go ask a company representative for money for a 12 year old game. I don't think they are solely trying to calculate how many foreign fans they can attract if SC2 appears in proleague. Everything is happening in korea - they are going to cater to korean audiences first. And how are they going to get foreigners to watch? I don't think OGN broadcasts to foreign countries. Are they going to set up streams or something? Make this like gomTV lol?
For some perspective.
The GSTL 2012 season 1 final English VOD has 145,230 views right now. The GSL 2012 season 1 final English VOD is 191,852 views.
You need to buy a ticket to see these VODs. GSTL and GSL are separate tickets. Let's assume that everyone bought a yearly ticket, and got the light option, as this is the cheapest way to watch SC2 on GOM over a year.
A GSTL yearly light ticket is $54.99 A GSL yearly light ticket is $69.99 (It doesn't include GSTL)
Now, that seems pretty high to me. I doubt that every single view respresents 1 ticket, so let's cut that in half. $10,000,000 a year, in revenue. (Plus, Light Tickets have to watch Ads, so ad revenue as well, but I'll ignore that except to note that GOM is really expensive holy balls)
And, obviously, that's not all profit for GOM. They have to hire a casters, cameramen, the prize pool, etc etc etc, probably Blizzard gets a cut etc etc etc.
But, here's the thing. KeSPA is already paying all those costs to run Proleague. (Except a Blizzard kickback, but that'd come out of the SC2 money anyway)
So, if KeSPA takes over SC2 from GOM, they'd be paying hardly anything more than they are now (deal with twitch or own3d, hire some English casters at like $100,000/yr because you want the biggest names), and they'd be making literally millions. Hell, let's cut it in half again. $5m a year. That's another televised Starleague, easy, with enough left over for T8 to not even need a sponsor. Because almost all that money is basically free, as the marginal cost of adding SC2 to proleague is so low. They'd also be albe to get slightly bigger sponsors, but I don't know much about that, so let's just add it as more insurance against my numbers being wrong.
And if it leads to a renewed and much larger foreign BW scene, allowing KeSPA to resplit the games down the line? All the better! Espeicially since MLG and KeSPA are supposedly in cahoots. There's a lot KeSPA could give MLG (for instance, a seeding system like GOM had to make MLG the most important e-sports event in the west), in exchange for MLG having BW in it. And if MLG could have KT play BW against SKT1 in NYC, I guaratee you they would, even if it was 100% BW.
On April 12 2012 13:37 white_horse wrote: They are trying to put in SC2 mainly because it would be easier to attract sponsors; it's difficult to go ask a company representative for money for a 12 year old game. I don't think they are solely trying to calculate how many foreign fans they can attract if SC2 appears in proleague. Everything is happening in korea - they are going to cater to korean audiences first. And how are they going to get foreigners to watch? I don't think OGN broadcasts to foreign countries. Are they going to set up streams or something? Make this like gomTV lol?
For some perspective.
The GSTL 2012 season 1 final English VOD has 145,230 views right now. The GSL 2012 season 1 final English VOD is 191,852 views.
You need to buy a ticket to see these VODs. GSTL and GSL are separate tickets. Let's assume that everyone bought a yearly ticket, and got the light option, as this is the cheapest way to watch SC2 on GOM over a year.
A GSTL yearly light ticket is $54.99 A GSL yearly light ticket is $69.99 (It doesn't include GSTL)
Now, that seems pretty high to me. I doubt that every single view respresents 1 ticket, so let's cut that in half. $10,000,000 a year, in revenue. (Plus, Light Tickets have to watch Ads, so ad revenue as well, but I'll ignore that except to note that GOM is really expensive holy balls)
And, obviously, that's not all profit for GOM. They have to hire a casters, cameramen, the prize pool, etc etc etc, probably Blizzard gets a cut etc etc etc.
But, here's the thing. KeSPA is already paying all those costs to run Proleague. (Except a Blizzard kickback, but that'd come out of the SC2 money anyway)
So, if KeSPA takes over SC2 from GOM, they'd be paying hardly anything more than they are now (deal with twitch or own3d, hire some English casters at like $100,000/yr because you want the biggest names), and they'd be making literally millions. Hell, let's cut it in half again. $5m a year. That's another televised Starleague, easy, with enough left over for T8 to not even need a sponsor. Because almost all that money is basically free, as the marginal cost of adding SC2 to proleague is so low.
And if it leads to a renewed and much larger foreign BW scene, allowing KeSPA to resplit the games down the line? All the better! Espeicially since MLG and KeSPA are supposedly in cahoots. There's a lot KeSPA could give MLG (for instance, a seeding system like GOM had to make MLG the most important e-sports event in the west), in exchange for MLG having BW in it. And if MLG could have KT play BW against SKT1 in NYC, I guaratee you they would, even if it was 100% BW.
On April 12 2012 13:37 white_horse wrote: They are trying to put in SC2 mainly because it would be easier to attract sponsors; it's difficult to go ask a company representative for money for a 12 year old game. I don't think they are solely trying to calculate how many foreign fans they can attract if SC2 appears in proleague. Everything is happening in korea - they are going to cater to korean audiences first. And how are they going to get foreigners to watch? I don't think OGN broadcasts to foreign countries. Are they going to set up streams or something? Make this like gomTV lol?
Ribbon, you're living in a dream world. This idea you keep peddling of KeSPA trying to revive the foreign BW scene has no basis in reality. BW is dead outside of Korea and it's not coming back, you're kidding yourself if you think you're going to see MLG running BW tournaments or BW Pro League games in the US.
If KeSPA goes ahead with this split league format it's because they're trying to introduce SC2 to their current audience, attract a new audience of SC2 fans and hopefully attract new sponsors, which BW appears currently unable to do (they had an English subtitled video at the end of the OGN LoL broadcast yesterday practically begging for OSL sponsors). I doubt reviving foreign interest in BW is even on the agenda.
On April 12 2012 13:37 white_horse wrote: They are trying to put in SC2 mainly because it would be easier to attract sponsors; it's difficult to go ask a company representative for money for a 12 year old game. I don't think they are solely trying to calculate how many foreign fans they can attract if SC2 appears in proleague. Everything is happening in korea - they are going to cater to korean audiences first. And how are they going to get foreigners to watch? I don't think OGN broadcasts to foreign countries. Are they going to set up streams or something? Make this like gomTV lol?
For some perspective.
The GSTL 2012 season 1 final English VOD has 145,230 views right now. The GSL 2012 season 1 final English VOD is 191,852 views.
You need to buy a ticket to see these VODs. GSTL and GSL are separate tickets. Let's assume that everyone bought a yearly ticket, and got the light option, as this is the cheapest way to watch SC2 on GOM over a year.
A GSTL yearly light ticket is $54.99 A GSL yearly light ticket is $69.99 (It doesn't include GSTL)
Now, that seems pretty high to me. I doubt that every single view respresents 1 ticket, so let's cut that in half. $10,000,000 a year, in revenue. (Plus, Light Tickets have to watch Ads, so ad revenue as well, but I'll ignore that except to note that GOM is really expensive holy balls)
And, obviously, that's not all profit for GOM. They have to hire a casters, cameramen, the prize pool, etc etc etc, probably Blizzard gets a cut etc etc etc.
But, here's the thing. KeSPA is already paying all those costs to run Proleague. (Except a Blizzard kickback, but that'd come out of the SC2 money anyway)
So, if KeSPA takes over SC2 from GOM, they'd be paying hardly anything more than they are now (deal with twitch or own3d, hire some English casters at like $100,000/yr because you want the biggest names), and they'd be making literally millions. Hell, let's cut it in half again. $5m a year. That's another televised Starleague, easy, with enough left over for T8 to not even need a sponsor. Because almost all that money is basically free, as the marginal cost of adding SC2 to proleague is so low. They'd also be albe to get slightly bigger sponsors, but I don't know much about that, so let's just add it as more insurance against my numbers being wrong.
And if it leads to a renewed and much larger foreign BW scene, allowing KeSPA to resplit the games down the line? All the better! Espeicially since MLG and KeSPA are supposedly in cahoots. There's a lot KeSPA could give MLG (for instance, a seeding system like GOM had to make MLG the most important e-sports event in the west), in exchange for MLG having BW in it. And if MLG could have KT play BW against SKT1 in NYC, I guaratee you they would, even if it was 100% BW.
There's a lot of possibility here.
I Love the idea, but.. I think you are being a little bit too positive on this one
I would just want to see some good Proleague action soon, if it would be pure BW - sick ! AWESOME !!!
if its going to be mixed BW/SC2.. well.. I dont like the idea but its still better than no Proleague at all right ?
We are all waiting for some info from kespa, hope it will come soon !
i like ribbons idea, anyway if its a mixed bw/sc2 proleague i wont watch the streams live anymore, when i tried playing/watching sc2 i got bored pretty fast i remember doing nonsense stuff like marines only with stim + shield and getting into GM lol, so ill just watch the bw vods
On April 12 2012 22:06 cuppatea wrote: Ribbon, you're living in a dream world. This idea you keep peddling of KeSPA trying to revive the foreign BW scene has no basis in reality. BW is dead outside of Korea and it's not coming back, you're kidding yourself if you think you're going to see MLG running BW tournaments or BW Pro League games in the US.
If KeSPA goes ahead with this split league format it's because they're trying to introduce SC2 to their current audience, attract a new audience of SC2 fans and hopefully attract new sponsors, which BW appears currently unable to do (they had an English subtitled video at the end of the OGN LoL broadcast yesterday practically begging for OSL sponsors). I doubt reviving foreign interest in BW is even on the agenda.
I don't think Ribbon was saying they would do it to try to revive the foreign BW scene, but rather that they could do it for the money and a nice side affect could be that the foreign BW scene is revived. I don't think that includes MLG BW or anything like that, just more foreigners watching Korean BW. That could hopefully mean people could spend money on it, which would hopefully mean BW could stay alive in Korea despite the difficulty of getting sponsors. That seems a little far fetched, though, considering the attitudes of the BW and SC2 communities towards each other. Maybe if you had to buy a ticket which covered both BW and SC2, people would do that.
On April 11 2012 19:14 ImbaTosS wrote: I still don't see the monetary incentive for a switch. It's no secret that 99% of SC2 pros make absolute peanuts. I mean, 20-30,000 $ IN TOTAL so far. Which pretty much equates to lower than minimum wage (in this country at least). A few have made some good money, but still it's important to note that they haven't made particularly great money. For example, 250,000 for some of the most valuable days of your life, is really not enough to set you up in the long run. The whole switching for money thing? I REALLY don't buy it. Prize winnings as a primary source of income is a terrible risk when the very absolute best you can expect to earn for a very limited time, is equal to just 2 years of a high middle-class salary (again, in Britain at least).
Bit of a nitpick, but I think you're overestimating how much most people make in Britain. The median weekly wage for full-time workers in 2010 was £499, which works out at just shy of £26,000 a year - before tax. Half of full-time workers make less than that. Data on income distribution is a little harder to come by but an IFS report in 2008 suggested that top 1% of wage-earners have an annual income of at least £99,727. So if you make $250k (or about £160k) in two years then that's equivalent to a salary of £80,000 a year, which is more than probably 95% of adults in Britain make. That's a lot more than middle-class. And as others have said, unlike those people, you don't have to pay for a mortgage, for food or for bills. And aren't competition winnings taxed comparatively lightly in most countries, too?
BW is entirely irrelevant in the west at this point and always will be. Maybe bw can expand well in china, but given that they sent an osl final there and wanted to have the proleague finals there where weather messed it up it seems that expansion for $$ to China didn't yield anything fruitful. No idea if it did increase viewership from chinese though and I dunno what the viewership actually is (insert things about 1 million OSL restream, etc etc).
Only thing I can really see with concrete numbers is looking at like youku where the vod views for various random bw games are like 20k maybe (looking at "wfgamecom" account) with some peak at like 99k, though I think those games were last year. The finals that just happened has low viewer count but it's on some other account (just searched "skt vs kt").
So what would be the hopes of foreign (Western) bw? Quadruple the optimistically-modeled consistent 10k viewers to 40k? Still way less than anything they could scrounge up in a day from china.
edit- but getting foreign sc2 money is a different story; but western bw will never contribute anything to Kespa.
On April 12 2012 22:06 cuppatea wrote: Ribbon, you're living in a dream world. This idea you keep peddling of KeSPA trying to revive the foreign BW scene has no basis in reality. BW is dead outside of Korea and it's not coming back, you're kidding yourself if you think you're going to see MLG running BW tournaments or BW Pro League games in the US.
If KeSPA goes ahead with this split league format it's because they're trying to introduce SC2 to their current audience, attract a new audience of SC2 fans and hopefully attract new sponsors, which BW appears currently unable to do (they had an English subtitled video at the end of the OGN LoL broadcast yesterday practically begging for OSL sponsors). I doubt reviving foreign interest in BW is even on the agenda.
This is exactly it. Also, a sudden complete switch to SC2 would probably lead to a wave of retirements from older progamers not interested in the sink-or-swim atmosphere that would be created by such a change. No doubt there was also resistance to a complete switch from poorer teams, since they'd be unable to just buy some random current SC2 gamers to compete while their former BW pros practiced, which would allow the richer teams like SKT and KT to clean up. Both of these issues would jeopardize the Blizzard/KeSPA plan to retain as many current viewers as possible post-switch.
Morhaime was not in Korea to try to save BW. He was there to try to save SC2. I'm guessing that SC2 isn't hitting its targets in Korea at all, even if it's doing well internationally, and Blizzard probably had some big bets on that market based on assumptions made from BW's success. This is a deal of mutual convenience between KeSPA, which sees SC2's international appeal and Blizzard's support as necessary to get sponsors for leagues, and Blizzard, which sees KeSPA as a useful expedient to further promotion of SC2 in Korea and therefore abroad.
On April 13 2012 06:13 gngfn wrote: Morhaime was not in Korea to try to save BW. He was there to try to save SC2. I'm guessing that SC2 isn't hitting its targets in Korea at all, even if it's doing well internationally, and Blizzard probably had some big bets on that market based on assumptions made from BW's success
Whilst this is generally true, I'm not sure I'd go so far as to say "save" SC2. I think you're right that Blizz probably had very large expectations of SC2 based upon BW, and it's not come close to those lofty targets. Mainly, more than likely, because the promotion it gets from GOM (despite the fact that I am a huge fan of the GSL and would not want to see that vanish under any circumstances) is not up to the BW promotion, and also because BW itself is still ongoing.
SC2 is still growing in Korea despite that, but it's obviously just not happening as quickly as Blizz planned for or wanted, and now with LoL's rise they are starting to panic a little and wanting to get a firmer grip on the market to cover themselves.
I'm not sure that qualifies as a failure though, either complete or ongoing. Failure would suggest that the strategy would be re-thought, but I think whether that's what's happening is questionable.
Imo, Blizzard would ALWAYS have had the attitude that BW would be relatively swiftly transitioned out in order to transfer current viewers to SC2 as well as gaining new ones on top of that. The fact that that hasn't happened has actually left SC2 at quite the disadvantage because those who don't actively seek out change will just stick with what they've got.
The fact that BW is still going also SIGNIFICANTLY impedes Blizz's chances of ever making its targets for SC2, because they will have naturally assumed that "oh, we want to reach xx million, which means we need to grow by xx million on top of the xx million we inherit from the move over from BW". Without the BW tournaments switching, and therefore the fans being guided towards SC2, Blizz's projections will have all had the foundations moved right from underneath them. They'll have factored in the fact that some won't switch, yes, but they'll have certainly banked on a significant portion.
What this has meant is that SC2 has never really had the playing field in the state that Blizz wanted, and even intended for it to have so that it could clean house. Morhaime has recognised that it can't create this field for itself because BW is just too well entrenched, so he's gone over to start off the demolition process.
TLDR; save SC2 - no. Level the playing field a bit more towards how it was intended to be so that SC2 is more likely to succeed - yes. Bad for BW, yes, but sadly everything is all about the dollars these days and BW just doesn't offer that going forward in the quantities that Blizzard (or Kespa) would want.
On April 12 2012 22:06 cuppatea wrote: Ribbon, you're living in a dream world. This idea you keep peddling of KeSPA trying to revive the foreign BW scene has no basis in reality. BW is dead outside of Korea and it's not coming back, you're kidding yourself if you think you're going to see MLG running BW tournaments or BW Pro League games in the US.
Why? MLG runs CoD and Halo, with tiny eSports scenes, as well as Mortal Kombat 9 (???), and they've recently changed their format to one where they could have 2-3 BW tournaments without commiting for the year. I'm pretty sure more foreigners watch BW pros than Call of Duty pros.
If KeSPA goes ahead with this split league format it's because they're trying to introduce SC2 to their current audience, attract a new audience of SC2 fans and hopefully attract new sponsors, which BW appears currently unable to do (they had an English subtitled video at the end of the OGN LoL broadcast yesterday practically begging for OSL sponsors). I doubt reviving foreign interest in BW is even on the agenda.
If BW is on the way out immently, why are the teams picking up BW rookies? Yes, fewer rookies total than in previous seasons, but two fewer teams and T8 isn't hiring. It's not like these rookies are going to be getting much BW play in the next six months, and I doubt they were hired for their secret SC2 skill.
On April 12 2012 22:06 cuppatea wrote: Ribbon, you're living in a dream world. This idea you keep peddling of KeSPA trying to revive the foreign BW scene has no basis in reality. BW is dead outside of Korea and it's not coming back, you're kidding yourself if you think you're going to see MLG running BW tournaments or BW Pro League games in the US.
If KeSPA goes ahead with this split league format it's because they're trying to introduce SC2 to their current audience, attract a new audience of SC2 fans and hopefully attract new sponsors, which BW appears currently unable to do (they had an English subtitled video at the end of the OGN LoL broadcast yesterday practically begging for OSL sponsors). I doubt reviving foreign interest in BW is even on the agenda.
I don't think Ribbon was saying they would do it to try to revive the foreign BW scene, but rather that they could do it for the money and a nice side affect could be that the foreign BW scene is revived.
Well, the idea is that SC2 fans pay for an SC2/BW mix league, and some of that profit is funneled into BW, and then when the economy picks up and Savior is further and further in the past, BW can stand on its own again, hopefully with a foreign fanbase big enough to be worth having an English stream for. It might be more a "let's try a mixed league and see what we can make happen" that a detailed plan, of course. All BW really needs is a good storyline.
On April 12 2012 23:52 KenNage wrote: i like ribbons idea, anyway if its a mixed bw/sc2 proleague i wont watch the streams live anymore, when i tried playing/watching sc2 i got bored pretty fast i remember doing nonsense stuff like marines only with stim + shield and getting into GM lol, so ill just watch the bw vods
Getting into NA GM is not an acheivement.
On April 13 2012 01:43 N.geNuity wrote: BW is entirely irrelevant in the west at this point and always will be.
People keep saying this, but they never say why BW growing in the West is impossible. If there's an SC2/BW mixed league, that means BW in barcrafts. I mean, yes, there'll always be a few "but the graphics are old OMG" dorks, but I started watching BW in 2009, and there was no community of the sort SC2 has to get into (in sheer scale).
So what would be the hopes of foreign (Western) bw? Quadruple the optimistically-modeled consistent 10k viewers to 40k? Still way less than anything they could scrounge up in a day from china.
edit- but getting foreign sc2 money is a different story; but western bw will never contribute anything to Kespa.
They could do the west AND China; it doesn't have to be one or the other. And 40,000 people paying $50 or $100 a year like they do for GOM? That's pretty significant. It's millions of dollars significant. You don't actually need a very large fanbase if they have fat wallets. I'm not saying BW is going to be on ESPN or anything like that. That's obviously absurd. Just that it'll be big enough
On April 13 2012 06:13 gngfn wrote: Morhaime was not in Korea to try to save BW. He was there to try to save SC2. I'm guessing that SC2 isn't hitting its targets in Korea at all, even if it's doing well internationally, and Blizzard probably had some big bets on that market based on assumptions made from BW's success. This is a deal of mutual convenience between KeSPA, which sees SC2's international appeal and Blizzard's support as necessary to get sponsors for leagues, and Blizzard, which sees KeSPA as a useful expedient to further promotion of SC2 in Korea and therefore abroad.
Morhaime wants to make money. Blizzard's issue with BW was that they weren't making money off it. If KeSPA did a mixed league and gave Blizzard a cut of ticket sales, Blizzard would be much friendlier to the BW scene (the SC2 competitive scene was almost completely ignored until tournaments - and thus blizzard - started getting bank from the tickets/sales). Blizz likes making money, and if they can make money of BW, it'll also help their image because they're "still" "involved" in such an old game.
On April 13 2012 06:13 gngfn wrote: Morhaime was not in Korea to try to save BW. He was there to try to save SC2. I'm guessing that SC2 isn't hitting its targets in Korea at all, even if it's doing well internationally, and Blizzard probably had some big bets on that market based on assumptions made from BW's success
...
Imo, Blizzard would ALWAYS have had the attitude that BW would be relatively swiftly transitioned out in order to transfer current viewers to SC2 as well as gaining new ones on top of that. The fact that that hasn't happened has actually left SC2 at quite the disadvantage because those who don't actively seek out change will just stick with what they've got.
...
Given that they did nothing to make this happen, I have no idea how you think they had this attitude. It's taken them nearly two years to negotiate with KeSPA and get the game on OGN... (well, discounting WCG.)
Unless you think they really thought the hype alone would be enough to kill BW instantly. I... hope they didn't think that, it's a pretty foolish assumption.
On April 12 2012 13:37 white_horse wrote: They are trying to put in SC2 mainly because it would be easier to attract sponsors; it's difficult to go ask a company representative for money for a 12 year old game. I don't think they are solely trying to calculate how many foreign fans they can attract if SC2 appears in proleague. Everything is happening in korea - they are going to cater to korean audiences first. And how are they going to get foreigners to watch? I don't think OGN broadcasts to foreign countries. Are they going to set up streams or something? Make this like gomTV lol?
For some perspective.
The GSTL 2012 season 1 final English VOD has 145,230 views right now. The GSL 2012 season 1 final English VOD is 191,852 views.
You need to buy a ticket to see these VODs. GSTL and GSL are separate tickets. Let's assume that everyone bought a yearly ticket, and got the light option, as this is the cheapest way to watch SC2 on GOM over a year.
A GSTL yearly light ticket is $54.99 A GSL yearly light ticket is $69.99 (It doesn't include GSTL)
Now, that seems pretty high to me. I doubt that every single view respresents 1 ticket, so let's cut that in half. $10,000,000 a year, in revenue. (Plus, Light Tickets have to watch Ads, so ad revenue as well, but I'll ignore that except to note that GOM is really expensive holy balls)
And, obviously, that's not all profit for GOM. They have to hire a casters, cameramen, the prize pool, etc etc etc, probably Blizzard gets a cut etc etc etc.
But, here's the thing. KeSPA is already paying all those costs to run Proleague. (Except a Blizzard kickback, but that'd come out of the SC2 money anyway)
So, if KeSPA takes over SC2 from GOM, they'd be paying hardly anything more than they are now (deal with twitch or own3d, hire some English casters at like $100,000/yr because you want the biggest names), and they'd be making literally millions. Hell, let's cut it in half again. $5m a year. That's another televised Starleague, easy, with enough left over for T8 to not even need a sponsor. Because almost all that money is basically free, as the marginal cost of adding SC2 to proleague is so low. They'd also be albe to get slightly bigger sponsors, but I don't know much about that, so let's just add it as more insurance against my numbers being wrong.
And if it leads to a renewed and much larger foreign BW scene, allowing KeSPA to resplit the games down the line? All the better! Espeicially since MLG and KeSPA are supposedly in cahoots. There's a lot KeSPA could give MLG (for instance, a seeding system like GOM had to make MLG the most important e-sports event in the west), in exchange for MLG having BW in it. And if MLG could have KT play BW against SKT1 in NYC, I guaratee you they would, even if it was 100% BW.
There's a lot of possibility here.
Your number for GOMTV VODs are way off.
1) Game 1 VOD is free 2) These are most likely total views across all the VODs in the set, rather than just one individual. If you click on the VODs, every time you click on the different sets, the number goes up.
So in reality they probably have.... 20K at most. That's probably about ~ 1 mil, ~ 2 mil total with GSTL. It costs Proleague that much to run for the year.
On April 12 2012 13:37 white_horse wrote: They are trying to put in SC2 mainly because it would be easier to attract sponsors; it's difficult to go ask a company representative for money for a 12 year old game. I don't think they are solely trying to calculate how many foreign fans they can attract if SC2 appears in proleague. Everything is happening in korea - they are going to cater to korean audiences first. And how are they going to get foreigners to watch? I don't think OGN broadcasts to foreign countries. Are they going to set up streams or something? Make this like gomTV lol?
For some perspective.
The GSTL 2012 season 1 final English VOD has 145,230 views right now. The GSL 2012 season 1 final English VOD is 191,852 views.
You need to buy a ticket to see these VODs. GSTL and GSL are separate tickets. Let's assume that everyone bought a yearly ticket, and got the light option, as this is the cheapest way to watch SC2 on GOM over a year.
A GSTL yearly light ticket is $54.99 A GSL yearly light ticket is $69.99 (It doesn't include GSTL)
Now, that seems pretty high to me. I doubt that every single view respresents 1 ticket, so let's cut that in half. $10,000,000 a year, in revenue. (Plus, Light Tickets have to watch Ads, so ad revenue as well, but I'll ignore that except to note that GOM is really expensive holy balls)
And, obviously, that's not all profit for GOM. They have to hire a casters, cameramen, the prize pool, etc etc etc, probably Blizzard gets a cut etc etc etc.
But, here's the thing. KeSPA is already paying all those costs to run Proleague. (Except a Blizzard kickback, but that'd come out of the SC2 money anyway)
So, if KeSPA takes over SC2 from GOM, they'd be paying hardly anything more than they are now (deal with twitch or own3d, hire some English casters at like $100,000/yr because you want the biggest names), and they'd be making literally millions. Hell, let's cut it in half again. $5m a year. That's another televised Starleague, easy, with enough left over for T8 to not even need a sponsor. Because almost all that money is basically free, as the marginal cost of adding SC2 to proleague is so low. They'd also be albe to get slightly bigger sponsors, but I don't know much about that, so let's just add it as more insurance against my numbers being wrong.
And if it leads to a renewed and much larger foreign BW scene, allowing KeSPA to resplit the games down the line? All the better! Espeicially since MLG and KeSPA are supposedly in cahoots. There's a lot KeSPA could give MLG (for instance, a seeding system like GOM had to make MLG the most important e-sports event in the west), in exchange for MLG having BW in it. And if MLG could have KT play BW against SKT1 in NYC, I guaratee you they would, even if it was 100% BW.
There's a lot of possibility here.
Your number for GOMTV VODs are way off.
1) Game 1 VOD is free 2) These are most likely total views across all the VODs in the set, rather than just one individual. If you click on the VODs, every time you click on the different sets, the number goes up.
So in reality they probably have.... 20K at most. That's probably about ~ 1 mil, ~ 2 mil total with GSTL. It costs Proleague that much to run for the year.
Yeah, I thought that was too much. I remember that when the site got hacked, they calculated 2.5 million total revenue. Probably they're getting a little more now, so 3m? That seems reasonable.
On April 13 2012 01:43 N.geNuity wrote: BW is entirely irrelevant in the west at this point and always will be.
People keep saying this, but they never say why BW growing in the West is impossible. If there's an SC2/BW mixed league, that means BW in barcrafts. I mean, yes, there'll always be a few "but the graphics are old OMG" dorks, but I started watching BW in 2009, and there was no community of the sort SC2 has to get into (in sheer scale).
So what would be the hopes of foreign (Western) bw? Quadruple the optimistically-modeled consistent 10k viewers to 40k? Still way less than anything they could scrounge up in a day from china.
edit- but getting foreign sc2 money is a different story; but western bw will never contribute anything to Kespa.
They could do the west AND China; it doesn't have to be one or the other. And 40,000 people paying $50 or $100 a year like they do for GOM? That's pretty significant. It's millions of dollars significant. You don't actually need a very large fanbase if they have fat wallets. I'm not saying BW is going to be on ESPN or anything like that. That's obviously absurd. Just that it'll be big enough
I know it's just my opinion, but people are going to play what their friends play. For brood war, I don't think westerners are going to follow the pro scene unless they played some or have friends into it. And I don't think a bunch of people are going to get together to play bw in the first place, but if they do they'll just find most of it tedious compared to other games available. I also think the only market are already rts players people who played warcraft/sc2.
I think if any sc2 people were going to get into bw they already would have. Sure there are a couple here and there that eventually get into it, but hell, there were proleague events at similar/convenient times with respect to sc2 events all the time this year and people didn't really go "check out" bw. Especially for the various people like europeans who could have had things like proleague grand finals at 11:00 AM or 13:00 and didn't watch it yet but will watch some stream of some sc2 gamer while those events go on. I don't mean any bw events that actually overlapped, but like an sc2 event ends for a day and 15 minutes later bw starts; some people could have said "I'll stick around for 30 min".
The 13:00 brood war events have people just watching some stream (Destiny/idra/whatever) and don't even check out the live bw event. It's not like sc2 events where they may pass up watching NASL teamleague or whatever to watch a destiny stream, but they never were interested in checking out the only bw events available.
I don't think people would pay the amount of money for bw as they do for sc2 as bw has a long tradition of being entirely free. As well as the fact that most of the bw fans don't really care about english commentary/prefer korean. I believe gom doesn't charge koreans for tickets to watch korean (foreign users do pay to see korean), but I may be wrong. So I'm not paying 50 bucks a year to watch what should be free to me and has been since I started watching.
On April 13 2012 01:43 N.geNuity wrote: BW is entirely irrelevant in the west at this point and always will be.
People keep saying this, but they never say why BW growing in the West is impossible. If there's an SC2/BW mixed league, that means BW in barcrafts. I mean, yes, there'll always be a few "but the graphics are old OMG" dorks, but I started watching BW in 2009, and there was no community of the sort SC2 has to get into (in sheer scale).
So what would be the hopes of foreign (Western) bw? Quadruple the optimistically-modeled consistent 10k viewers to 40k? Still way less than anything they could scrounge up in a day from china.
edit- but getting foreign sc2 money is a different story; but western bw will never contribute anything to Kespa.
They could do the west AND China; it doesn't have to be one or the other. And 40,000 people paying $50 or $100 a year like they do for GOM? That's pretty significant. It's millions of dollars significant. You don't actually need a very large fanbase if they have fat wallets. I'm not saying BW is going to be on ESPN or anything like that. That's obviously absurd. Just that it'll be big enough
I know it's just my opinion, but people are going to play what their friends play. For brood war, I don't think westerners are going to follow the pro scene unless they played some or have friends into it. And I don't think a bunch of people are going to get together to play bw in the first place, but if they do they'll just find most of it tedious compared to other games available. I also think the only market are already rts players people who played warcraft/sc2.
But most SC2 fans are viewers, not players, so I don't think you need to play a game to watch it.
I think if any sc2 people were going to get into bw they already would have. Sure there are a couple here and there that eventually get into it, but hell, there were proleague events at similar/convenient times with respect to sc2 events all the time this year and people didn't really go "check out" bw. Especially for the various people like europeans who could have had things like proleague grand finals at 11:00 AM or 13:00 and didn't watch it yet but will watch some stream of some sc2 gamer while those events go on. I don't mean any bw events that actually overlapped, but like an sc2 event ends for a day and 15 minutes later bw starts; some people could have said "I'll stick around for 30 min".
A fairly sizable number of SC2 fans watched the Proleague and OSL finals, especially because the OSL finals had a storyline a lot of BW people were very clearly excited about, giving even SC2 players who knew nothing about the scene could pick up on the "root for Jangbi because Legend of the Fall" thing. They don't watch BW regularly, but that's a bit of a vicious cycle: They don't watch BW because they know nothing about the players, and they know nothing about the players because they don't watch BW. SC2 fans are much more invested in the players and the stories, and a lot less interested in the actual game itself than BW players are towards the BW scene. Once a storyline came along they could grasp quickly, they did, and the OSL finals were popular enough among the SC2 scene to warrant like half an hour's discussion on the SC2 show State of the Game.
That's the reason I pin part of the blame for BW's problems on Flash. He's the story, and has been for years. He's the Jeff Jarrett of Brood War.
The 13:00 brood war events have people just watching some stream (Destiny/idra/whatever) and don't even check out the live bw event. It's not like sc2 events where they may pass up watching NASL teamleague or whatever to watch a destiny stream, but they never were interested in checking out the only bw events available.
No one watches Destiny or (to a lesser extent) Idra to see SC2. They watch Destiny and Idra to see Destiny and Idra, as personalities. This is how Destiny advertises his own stream:
The only thing indicating "this guy is good at SC2" is a "Micro" clip showing him pulling back an injured zergling (even for SC2, this is actually a pretty weak example of "good micro")
Compare this to how BW tends to make videos advertising itself:
It's 100% the actual game. There was a TL article a bit ago that noted that SC2 hasn't yet had a guy who played 100% totally safe and standard win a bunch, like Mind in BW. BW fans would like a guy who was boring but skilled a lot more than most SC2 fans would.
In other words, to bring a point to all of this, what BW needs is a story. An angle. A reason to root for a player beyond just "he's good". The Legend of the Fall was such a story, and it did indeed bring a lot of attention. Lately, the GSL has these little vignettes for every single player saying who they are, and why you should care about them. MMA was a protege of Boxer and had huge hype but never quite lived up to it. Genius suddenly got good, but then only got silver last time, and is trying to prove he's second to none. Supernova makes the Ro32 every season and just wants someone to notice him. Bumblebee doesn't believe he's good enough. Etc etc etc. Every single player got something. That's something I think BW really needs.
I don't think people would pay the amount of money for bw as they do for sc2 as bw has a long tradition of being entirely free. As well as the fact that most of the bw fans don't really care about english commentary/prefer korean. I believe gom doesn't charge koreans for tickets to watch korean (foreign users do pay to see korean), but I may be wrong. So I'm not paying 50 bucks a year to watch what should be free to me and has been since I started watching.
If you're not willing to support BW, then you can't complain if it dies.
Well if Flash actually spend his time to connect with his fans and perform incredible ceremonies instead of being just good at the game, thing would be A LOT more different. At the height of the career, sAviOr was even more dominant than Flash. But sAviOr carried on a whole different storyline along with him. He is the dark master, the maestro, the Zerg's salvation with that smugness from the abyss. Its either you hate him or love the guy because of how he act, like a total badass. Flash should have tried to trashtalk more and develop his charisma.
On April 14 2012 11:32 Xiphos wrote: Well if Flash actually spend his time to connect with his fans and perform incredible ceremonies instead of being just good at the game, thing would be A LOT more different. At the height of the career, sAviOr was even more dominant than Flash. But sAviOr carried on a whole different storyline along with him. He is the dark master, the maestro, the Zerg's salvation with that smugness from the abyss. Its either you hate him or love the guy because of how he act, like a total badass. Flash should have tried to trashtalk more and develop his charisma.
And create a fake personality?
Be yourself, not a character. That's a lesson for life.
EPT
