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TI4, LGD and the fog of war

Blogs > shostakovich
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shostakovich
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Brazil1429 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-08-11 22:18:28
August 11 2014 22:10 GMT
#1
I was asked by readers why LGD wasn't considered as a Surprising Team in our TI4 Awards. Personally, I believe no team with such a historical tag should ever be considered a Surprising Team. At the same time, the team had what was necessary to perform well at TI4. I expected them to do well. To me, Liquid was the bigger surprise, playing better than expected. In the midst of this discussion, my good friend GoDz tells me this on Twitter:



We can ask ourselves: How can the players underestimate their opponent in a tournament like TI4, where any slight slip up means you're out of the tournament? The spectator community is clearly biased towards their idols and will support the teams where their favorite players play. In LGD’s case, they don’t have players like singsing, BurNing, iceiceice, or similarly popular players. Their most known player is Yao, BuLba's favorite, but that's it. Few really knew or cared about Rabbit, Lin and the others because they're not as famous or as popular as the previously mentioned players. But professional players don't have this excuse. With 7-8 record in the second round of the Playoffs, with wins against Alliance and c9, LGD definitely wasn't the free-win that team thought they were. If LGD had managed to win against Na'Vi.us, they would have finished 8-7 and in a better position for the third round of the playoffs.

There is a clear disparity between what the players predicted about LGD's performance and their actual performance (to be fair, Arteezy understood this when he said that LGD was a scary team in spite of being a dark horse), and investigating this can help us shed light on the nature of Dota as a game.

Dota is a clash of forces, permeated by all kinds of factors. As such, the emotions cannot fail to be involved. In essence, Dota is war and its element is one of danger and uncertainty. Because Dota deals with living forces, it can never be absolute, it can never reach certainty. If we’re allowed to paraphrase the great philosoper of war Clausewitz, all actions in Dota are clouded in the fog of uncertainty. In this cloud, Dota is not a simple mathematical game with a fixed solution. Countless small inaccuracies - the kind that can never be foreseen and can easily be ignored - could combine together to hurt the team. A slight mistake can prevent a team from seeing the enemy in time, from engaging when they should, from communicating something they should.

Every game of Dota is rich in these circumstances. Each is an uncharted sea, full of dangers that the player might even be dimly aware of, but which cannot be directly seen with the eye. The dilemma for the player and his team is to make an assessment of the game and actually navigate across this sea. Experienced players know that he might be wrong. If he's not correct about the state of himself and his enemy, it's very likely that he will be walking directly into defeat's jaws. The good player must make preparations against possible threats instead of innocently expecting the tame standard outcomes. Both luck and experience can help the player make adjustments to deal with the disparity between his actual performance and his idealised performance in his mind. Accomplished players of every kind of sport train really hard to make this their second nature, to make it an instinct.

By belittling any team in any tournament, teams are crippling themselves mentally. They are crossing an uncharted sea during the night, fully expecting safe passage, and blinding themselves to the rocks that may lie in their path and sink their ships. It sets a suboptimal mindset on his team. One of the most valuable asset of a player is his sense of his strength compared to the dangers that lie in the cloud of uncertainty in which Dota happens. Dota is not an exercise of the will directed to an inanimate object, but to an animate object that reacts. To assume that the enemy team will not adapt against your strategy is a recipe for defeat and the true meaning of underestimating. As such, players shouldn't try to establish a fixed system of rules that must be followed for optimal results, but instead they should seek to improve their personal ability of making intuitive or analytical judgments in the most adverse, dangerous and strange conditions.
Torrathyr
Profile Joined June 2012
Canada95 Posts
August 12 2014 00:39 GMT
#2
I think there was a lot of this happening during TI4. Teams would ignore what other teams liked, and be surprised when they lost horribly. For example, Newbee played very well, but they kept on getting the same picks that allowed them to do well and I have no idea why. Were teams going into games thinking, "ok we know what they like to play, lets see if we can play against that" ? That might have worked if Newbee didn't ban out heroes that they knew were good against their style or if they literally picked the same draft every game...

I think there's a lot of underestimating of foes in the pro dota scene in general, this is probably why I enjoy games between teams with a lot of history over games between teams that have never played against each other.
Talent < Skill < Practice < Dedication
BurningSera
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Ireland19621 Posts
August 12 2014 07:31 GMT
#3
thats the sad thing with lgd, they are 'average' even in the surprise department. Not shocking enough like what liquid did, and not extreme enough like vg did. And well, dont forget that we are liquiddota afterall.
is 2017, stop being lame, fuck's sakes. 'Can't wait for the rise of the cakes and humanity's last stand tbqh.'
rabidch
Profile Joined January 2010
United States20289 Posts
August 12 2014 08:49 GMT
#4
so TL power rankings was the most right once again??? :D
LiquidDota StaffOnly a true king can play the King.
TanGeng
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Sanya12364 Posts
August 12 2014 10:52 GMT
#5
On August 12 2014 17:49 rabidch wrote:
so TL power rankings was the most right once again??? :D


Except Mouz. Except Mouz. We will never live that down.
Moderator我们是个踏实的赞助商模式俱乐部
AbareKiller
Profile Joined May 2014
456 Posts
August 12 2014 11:04 GMT
#6
I don't know about the rest of you, but I always thought LGD was a big contender this TI, especially after they picked up the slack during the Qualifier, and after. Rabbit in particular, shined like the diamond-in-the-rough that he is. However, I don't think they could've gone any further, even with a better player to replace Lin. DK was just a tier above them, even severely under performing.
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22213 Posts
August 12 2014 12:40 GMT
#7
On August 12 2014 19:52 TanGeng wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 12 2014 17:49 rabidch wrote:
so TL power rankings was the most right once again??? :D


Except Mouz. Except Mouz. We will never live that down.

Nobody expected the king of throws that was that mouz vs LGD game
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
cheese sandwich
Profile Joined July 2014
Russian Federation194 Posts
August 12 2014 18:26 GMT
#8
I really think they would have beaten DK if they finished that bo3 that night.
mutantmagnet
Profile Joined June 2009
United States3807 Posts
August 13 2014 10:58 GMT
#9
I was following you but the 3rd and 4th paragraphs are nonsense.


Anyone I was complaining throughout the tournament about LGD not being given the Cinderella story treatment Liquid were given.


This was the same team that went from Tier 1 ranking to Tier 2.5 because they had players poached over time.

LGD was in a massive funk which is why they had to go through qualifiers.

It doesn't matter if they come from a very strong region. Relatively speaking they overperformed considering the track record they had in China. They did the exact same thing Vici Gaming did.
meegrean
Profile Joined May 2008
Thailand7699 Posts
August 13 2014 11:31 GMT
#10
I expected LGD to be eliminated early, but they did much better than I expected. I would consider them to be a Surprising Team honestly.
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