EPTWill SC2 ever see a bonjwa that had the >70% winrate that Flash did in 2010, or does the metagame move too fast, certain match-ups are too coinflippy, the competition too fierce, and the effort to stay on top too great?
Will there ever be a BW-Flash level player in SC2?
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LightSpectra
United States1445 Posts
Will SC2 ever see a bonjwa that had the >70% winrate that Flash did in 2010, or does the metagame move too fast, certain match-ups are too coinflippy, the competition too fierce, and the effort to stay on top too great? | ||
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Mr. Nefarious
United States515 Posts
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AnachronisticAnarchy
United States2957 Posts
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B.I.G.
3251 Posts
I guess what I'm trying to say is wait for like 10 more years and then we'll see. | ||
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jcroisdale
United States1543 Posts
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HollowLord
United States3862 Posts
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ymir233
United States8275 Posts
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loginn
France815 Posts
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fabiano
Brazil4644 Posts
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On December 04 2012 08:38 LightSpectra wrote: Simple question. Will SC2 ever see a bonjwa that had the >70% winrate that Flash did in 2010, or does the metagame move too fast, certain match-ups are too coinflippy, the competition too fierce, and the effort to stay on top too great? If the simple criterion is 70%+ over a year, then no, because Blizzard has a high likelihood of balance patching over any given 12 month period, and that patching undoubtedly affects things. If the criterion expands to a less concrete definition of dominance, then I'd say MVP already hit something like that during his 4th and 5th GSL finals. He epitomizes the "think ten games ahead" metagame/mind-fuck mentality that Flash had, plus he has great positioning and game sense. As for Flash making a similar mark in SC2, I doubt it for now. His game sense and decisionmaking are still off, plus his more macro-oriented, positional approach to tactics means he'd likely do better playing Protoss than Terran. | ||
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blade55555
United States17423 Posts
On December 04 2012 08:38 LightSpectra wrote: Simple question. Will SC2 ever see a bonjwa that had the >70% winrate that Flash did in 2010, or does the metagame move too fast, certain match-ups are too coinflippy, the competition too fierce, and the effort to stay on top too great? Flash wouldn't have done it in BW if there were as many bw tournaments as there are sc2 tournaments. People seem to forget that all they played in korea was MSL(when it existed), OSL and proleague. Throw in IPL, MLG, NASL, Dreamhack, etc and there is no way in hell that flash would have the dominant form he had then. The reason being you have to take into considerations the no preparation time for opponents, travel (this will wear you down eventually)/jetlag, etc. I think people who played BW are completely forgetting that bw had 3 main tournaments with WCG being the 4'th so I didn't count it as that is only once a year. With the way sc2 is there is no way a player will ever be that dominant not because the game is easy, but because there are so many tournaments. | ||
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WikidSik
Canada382 Posts
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Itsmedudeman
United States19229 Posts
On December 04 2012 09:44 loginn wrote: If you only look at win ratios, then Stephano is currently the closest to it with a 68% win rate overall. But he's not been dominant lately and isn't consistent enough. Still the best winratio in the game, but you have to add he mostly plays against foreigners, which he usually destroys. Stephano also plays against a lot of foreigners... | ||
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Sinensis
United States2513 Posts
Until everyone who plays Sc2 at the pro level lives in a team house and practices at least 8 hours a day with other pro players, someone as good as Flash can't happen again. | ||
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lisward
Singapore959 Posts
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Serpico
4285 Posts
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sorrowptoss
Canada1431 Posts
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ninazerg
United States7291 Posts
On December 04 2012 11:58 sorrowptoss wrote: Well SC2 is much younger than BW, I mean in 2012 SC2 was 2 years old and BW in 2010 was 12 years old. This means that SC2 receives patches much more often than BW (which has none anymore obviously), and the many changes in the game does not allow a player to rise like Flash because of the relatively fragile practice because of what was explained above. That's talking about the present. Using the same logic however, in a few additional years (say 4 to 6 years) after the last expansion of SC2, it is very possible that a "new Flash" arises. By the time StarCraft was 2 years old, Boxer had arrived. I don't think any player can become overwhelmingly dominant when the core fundamentals of the game are constantly changing because of patches and expansions. Still, I think Stephano is pretty darn good, as well as a few others who perform consistently well. In 2000, Boxer's progaming record was only about 55%, having gone 23-19. In 2001, Boxer really started to shine, when he won two first-places in tournaments, and boasted a record of 84-30, or about 75%. The following year, despite winning 1st place in the KPGA tour, his win rate declined again. Yet, Boxer was The Emperor. Stephano, if he had played in the MLG and won, he may have clinched a similar title, but that's just speculation on my part. There's no way to know how the gaming community would react to an MLG win by Stephano, which was taken by Leenock. | ||
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red4ce
United States7313 Posts
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N.geNuity
United States5112 Posts
I don't know all of flash's streaks, but he had a 15 game win streak leading up to his Bigfile msl 2010 win (that included grand finals of 09-10 proleague), he then had a 18-1 period in proleague to start off '10-'11 proleague format (to 2010/12/27) , THEN went 18-1 AGAIN to start off '11 winner's league (starting 2011/1/08). Every team practiced 24/7 to take down flash, they know he's going to be sent out, and he goes and has 18-1 streaks. Sc2 players are always practicing for various tournaments all over the world, and the teamleague is not a consistent weekly thing. But most kespa players ONLY were in proleague at a given time and they made their team 100% dedicated to take down flash. They failed. At the conclusion of his last regular season match for the 09-10 proleague, when he actually lost to light, on 2010/07/24, to the end of winnner's league 2011 on 2011/04/09 (4 rounds of proleague), he ended up at 78-22 (78%) and had won the MSL, OSL, got 2nd in WCG korea, carried his team to winner's league final and back into proleague rankings--though utimately lost to bisu at winner's league final-- and his team won 09-10 proleague grand finals with him beating hyuk. I.e. He won everything, except for the formality of first place WCG korea because places 1-3 already qualified and did lose in winner's league playoff. Moreso to my point on teamleagues was that he went 46-9 for 83.64%. Who goes 83% in team leagues with that many games over such a long time? No one except flash. The top gstl players are like 10-1, 11-2, and 10-2, but it's a bit different because that basically just equates to having 1 "all kill" and doing well otherwise. Flash dominated at times when everyone focused 100% on one thing: proleague. Then he also busted out a 14 game win streak sk planet season 1 and all. But win streaks are natural when you dominate proleague so much. | ||
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shizaep
Canada2920 Posts
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Falling
Canada11349 Posts
On December 04 2012 11:42 lisward wrote: Flash will I agree. Flash will be the next Flash  | ||
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jupidar
United States229 Posts
On December 04 2012 10:04 blade55555 wrote: Flash wouldn't have done it in BW if there were as many bw tournaments as there are sc2 tournaments. People seem to forget that all they played in korea was MSL(when it existed), OSL and proleague. Throw in IPL, MLG, NASL, Dreamhack, etc and there is no way in hell that flash would have the dominant form he had then. The reason being you have to take into considerations the no preparation time for opponents, travel (this will wear you down eventually)/jetlag, etc. I think people who played BW are completely forgetting that bw had 3 main tournaments with WCG being the 4'th so I didn't count it as that is only once a year. With the way sc2 is there is no way a player will ever be that dominant not because the game is easy, but because there are so many tournaments. With that logic you could argue his win percentage would go up, not down, with having to play more foreigners. I would also argue that the harder the game is, the more an exceedingly good player can stand out above his peers. | ||
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blade55555
United States17423 Posts
On December 04 2012 18:36 jupidar wrote: With that logic you could argue his win percentage would go up, not down, with having to play more foreigners. I would also argue that the harder the game is, the more an exceedingly good player can stand out above his peers. Eh he would be losing to more foreigners as well and if the events were as heavy with koreans as IPL/MLG I doubt it. Jet lag plays a huge factor and if he was travelling to all these tournaments AND playing in MSL/OSL/Proleague I guarantee he wouldn't do anywhere near as well. It's just not really possible, of course I could be wrong and we'll never know obviously but it's just how sc2 is and why there will never be a dominant player like flash was for 2010. MVP was really close where he won GSL and MLG when he went but then the tournament scene for major events didn't really explode where there are now major tournaments every few weeks it feels like now. Look at November alone we had BWC, MLG, IPL, GSL, WCG (I don't really count WCG to much but i'll throw it in there anyway) all within the past month. Yeah good luck for any one player, no matter how good you are to do good in all those events with all the traveling and everything. | ||
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Zergneedsfood
United States10671 Posts
On December 04 2012 19:15 blade55555 wrote: Eh he would be losing to more foreigners as well and if the events were as heavy with koreans as IPL/MLG I doubt it. Jet lag plays a huge factor and if he was travelling to all these tournaments AND playing in MSL/OSL/Proleague I guarantee he wouldn't do anywhere near as well. It's just not really possible, of course I could be wrong and we'll never know obviously but it's just how sc2 is and why there will never be a dominant player like flash was for 2010. MVP was really close where he won GSL and MLG when he went but then the tournament scene for major events didn't really explode where there are now major tournaments every few weeks it feels like now. Look at November alone we had BWC, MLG, IPL, GSL, WCG (I don't really count WCG to much but i'll throw it in there anyway) all within the past month. Yeah good luck for any one player, no matter how good you are to do good in all those events with all the traveling and everything. If we're talking about BW foreigners, then no, Flash wouldn't be losing. I think regardless of the impact of jet lag, there's no foreigner that even comes close to the quality of play that Flash displays on a bad day. | ||
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koreasilver
9109 Posts
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HaXXspetten
Sweden15718 Posts
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docvoc
United States5491 Posts
On December 05 2012 02:48 Zergneedsfood wrote: If we're talking about BW foreigners, then no, Flash wouldn't be losing. I think regardless of the impact of jet lag, there's no foreigner that even comes close to the quality of play that Flash displays on a bad day. Really?  NaNiwat do you mean? I'm pretty sure I've seen at least NaNiwan foreigner beat flash solidly before... | ||
Poopi
France12795 Posts
On December 04 2012 08:54 Mr. Nefarious wrote: Nestea won an entire GSL without dropping a single map. A 100% win rate for an entire season is a lot better than Flash ever was. If you mean longevity, MVP comes to mind but his injury as recently been a major problem with him missing tournaments. Lol I didn't follow BW but are you really comparing NesTea's road which was the easiest in GSL history to what Flash accomplished lol? | ||
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Zergneedsfood
United States10671 Posts
On December 05 2012 05:03 docvoc wrote: Really? NaNiwat do you mean? I'm pretty sure I've seen at least NaNiwan foreigner beat flash solidly before...I was talking about BW, so I don't know where Naniwa comes into the picture. On December 05 2012 05:14 Poopi wrote: Lol I didn't follow BW but are you really comparing NesTea's road which was the easiest in GSL history to what Flash accomplished lol? Not to mention Nestea blooowwws at BW so him getting the faintest amount of comparison with someone like Flash is pretty sad. | ||
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radadaundandan
Bulgaria3148 Posts
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Osmeus
United States40 Posts
On December 05 2012 05:14 Poopi wrote: Lol I didn't follow BW but are you really comparing NesTea's road which was the easiest in GSL history to what Flash accomplished lol? Naniwa, three years of playing sc. Flash, less than a year. and he still owned naniwa. People are making such silly comparisons. If flash had 3 years of playing starcraft 2, which is easier than broodwar imo, he would have 80% tops | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On January 04 2013 01:09 radadaundandan wrote: Don't make me laugh.... Two cannibals are eating a clown. One says to the other: "Does this taste funny to you?" | ||
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Steveling
Greece10806 Posts
Noone else is as talented to achieve that. | ||
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LuckyFool
United States9015 Posts
On December 04 2012 08:54 Mr. Nefarious wrote: Nestea won an entire GSL without dropping a single map. A 100% win rate for an entire season is a lot better than Flash ever was. If you mean longevity, MVP comes to mind but his injury as recently been a major problem with him missing tournaments. 1 good GSL season > 4 straight years of 70% winrate+multiple OSL's/MSL's? okay. | ||
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GTPGlitch
5061 Posts
Not to mention Nestea blooowwws at BW so him getting the faintest amount of comparison with someone like Flash is pretty sad. Yeah, because if someone is bad comparatively to, say, a halo 4 master, and then becomes really good in call of duty, his dominance clearly cannot be compared... I mean, I think nestea is terrible, but the logic in your criticism is worse than BitByBit's macro games | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32740 Posts
The volatility of SC2's gameplay is also another reason. SC2 is about reaching that 200/200 deathball, or finishing the game with a timing push, both of which weren't that popular in BW to my knowledge. Regardless of how many advantages a player has against his opponent, if they can both get to that deathball and have one good engagement, all those advantages mean nothing once a 200/200 army is destroyed and the opponent pushed and wins. BW was about fighting on multiple fronts rather than the one big attack, and often lead to more comebacks and such, which SC2 isn't really built around. To an extent, this also means that "weaker" players can defeat a better player because of the ease of playing SC2 compared to BW, which levels the playing field much more. There are more patches in frequency and change than BW, so players, strategies, builds and the metagame all can change dramatically overnight. See MMA, who had incredibly strong TvZ, then once the Queen patch came along, his reputation came to a crash. SC2 lacks the stability that BW had, which makes one month entirely changed from another. | ||
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StarStruck
25339 Posts
On December 04 2012 19:15 blade55555 wrote: Eh he would be losing to more foreigners as well and if the events were as heavy with koreans as IPL/MLG I doubt it. Jet lag plays a huge factor and if he was travelling to all these tournaments AND playing in MSL/OSL/Proleague I guarantee he wouldn't do anywhere near as well. It's just not really possible, of course I could be wrong and we'll never know obviously but it's just how sc2 is and why there will never be a dominant player like flash was for 2010. MVP was really close where he won GSL and MLG when he went but then the tournament scene for major events didn't really explode where there are now major tournaments every few weeks it feels like now. Look at November alone we had BWC, MLG, IPL, GSL, WCG (I don't really count WCG to much but i'll throw it in there anyway) all within the past month. Yeah good luck for any one player, no matter how good you are to do good in all those events with all the traveling and everything. Everyone was trying to wrap up at the same time. Also, MSL, OSL, PL and even back then when we had the GOM Classic was a lot and he was still doing very damn well. Players got fatigued and dropped out. It's a stupid amount of games to prep for so I don't really put that much weight into how many freaking tournaments there are especially when you aren't always up against the toughest competition. Look any time our foreigners played them (and play them we did even if it wasn't WCG because they did practice on the other ladders as well) we would rarely put up a fight. BW just had many more ways to comeback and mechanically we just couldn't keep up. It was so rare that we would manage to be able to compete with them. Very rare. Lots of guys have tried and sure you could say they were pretty closed off compared to the rest of the world as you really had to be in Korea if you wanted to join a KeSPA team and play in Courage, but then I refer you right back to the ladders. They were right at the top. | ||
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ElizarTringov
Bulgaria317 Posts
On December 04 2012 11:42 lisward wrote: Flash will I pretty much have to agree with this. In due time he will be back to that %70 win. | ||
BigFan
TLADT24920 Posts
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AnYvia
Bulgaria474 Posts
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Osmeus
United States40 Posts
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EtherealDeath
United States8366 Posts
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