EPTWill SC2 ever see a bonjwa that had the >70% winrate that Flash did in 2010, or does the metagame move too fast, certain match-ups are too coinflippy, the competition too fierce, and the effort to stay on top too great?
Will there ever be a BW-Flash level player in SC2?
| Blogs > LightSpectra |
|
LightSpectra
United States2277 Posts
Will SC2 ever see a bonjwa that had the >70% winrate that Flash did in 2010, or does the metagame move too fast, certain match-ups are too coinflippy, the competition too fierce, and the effort to stay on top too great? | ||
|
Mr. Nefarious
United States515 Posts
| ||
|
AnachronisticAnarchy
United States2957 Posts
| ||
|
B.I.G.
3251 Posts
I guess what I'm trying to say is wait for like 10 more years and then we'll see. | ||
|
jcroisdale
United States1543 Posts
| ||
|
HollowLord
United States3862 Posts
| ||
|
ymir233
United States8275 Posts
| ||
|
loginn
France815 Posts
| ||
|
fabiano
Brazil4644 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On December 04 2012 08:38 LightSpectra wrote: Simple question. Will SC2 ever see a bonjwa that had the >70% winrate that Flash did in 2010, or does the metagame move too fast, certain match-ups are too coinflippy, the competition too fierce, and the effort to stay on top too great? If the simple criterion is 70%+ over a year, then no, because Blizzard has a high likelihood of balance patching over any given 12 month period, and that patching undoubtedly affects things. If the criterion expands to a less concrete definition of dominance, then I'd say MVP already hit something like that during his 4th and 5th GSL finals. He epitomizes the "think ten games ahead" metagame/mind-fuck mentality that Flash had, plus he has great positioning and game sense. As for Flash making a similar mark in SC2, I doubt it for now. His game sense and decisionmaking are still off, plus his more macro-oriented, positional approach to tactics means he'd likely do better playing Protoss than Terran. | ||
|
blade55555
United States17423 Posts
On December 04 2012 08:38 LightSpectra wrote: Simple question. Will SC2 ever see a bonjwa that had the >70% winrate that Flash did in 2010, or does the metagame move too fast, certain match-ups are too coinflippy, the competition too fierce, and the effort to stay on top too great? Flash wouldn't have done it in BW if there were as many bw tournaments as there are sc2 tournaments. People seem to forget that all they played in korea was MSL(when it existed), OSL and proleague. Throw in IPL, MLG, NASL, Dreamhack, etc and there is no way in hell that flash would have the dominant form he had then. The reason being you have to take into considerations the no preparation time for opponents, travel (this will wear you down eventually)/jetlag, etc. I think people who played BW are completely forgetting that bw had 3 main tournaments with WCG being the 4'th so I didn't count it as that is only once a year. With the way sc2 is there is no way a player will ever be that dominant not because the game is easy, but because there are so many tournaments. | ||
|
WikidSik
Canada382 Posts
 | ||
|
Itsmedudeman
United States19229 Posts
On December 04 2012 09:44 loginn wrote: If you only look at win ratios, then Stephano is currently the closest to it with a 68% win rate overall. But he's not been dominant lately and isn't consistent enough. Still the best winratio in the game, but you have to add he mostly plays against foreigners, which he usually destroys. Stephano also plays against a lot of foreigners... | ||
|
Sinensis
United States2513 Posts
Until everyone who plays Sc2 at the pro level lives in a team house and practices at least 8 hours a day with other pro players, someone as good as Flash can't happen again. | ||
|
lisward
Singapore959 Posts
| ||
|
Serpico
4285 Posts
| ||
|
sorrowptoss
Canada1431 Posts
| ||
|
ninazerg
United States7291 Posts
On December 04 2012 11:58 sorrowptoss wrote: Well SC2 is much younger than BW, I mean in 2012 SC2 was 2 years old and BW in 2010 was 12 years old. This means that SC2 receives patches much more often than BW (which has none anymore obviously), and the many changes in the game does not allow a player to rise like Flash because of the relatively fragile practice because of what was explained above. That's talking about the present. Using the same logic however, in a few additional years (say 4 to 6 years) after the last expansion of SC2, it is very possible that a "new Flash" arises. By the time StarCraft was 2 years old, Boxer had arrived. I don't think any player can become overwhelmingly dominant when the core fundamentals of the game are constantly changing because of patches and expansions. Still, I think Stephano is pretty darn good, as well as a few others who perform consistently well. In 2000, Boxer's progaming record was only about 55%, having gone 23-19. In 2001, Boxer really started to shine, when he won two first-places in tournaments, and boasted a record of 84-30, or about 75%. The following year, despite winning 1st place in the KPGA tour, his win rate declined again. Yet, Boxer was The Emperor. Stephano, if he had played in the MLG and won, he may have clinched a similar title, but that's just speculation on my part. There's no way to know how the gaming community would react to an MLG win by Stephano, which was taken by Leenock. | ||
|
red4ce
United States7313 Posts
| ||
|
N.geNuity
United States5112 Posts
I don't know all of flash's streaks, but he had a 15 game win streak leading up to his Bigfile msl 2010 win (that included grand finals of 09-10 proleague), he then had a 18-1 period in proleague to start off '10-'11 proleague format (to 2010/12/27) , THEN went 18-1 AGAIN to start off '11 winner's league (starting 2011/1/08). Every team practiced 24/7 to take down flash, they know he's going to be sent out, and he goes and has 18-1 streaks. Sc2 players are always practicing for various tournaments all over the world, and the teamleague is not a consistent weekly thing. But most kespa players ONLY were in proleague at a given time and they made their team 100% dedicated to take down flash. They failed. At the conclusion of his last regular season match for the 09-10 proleague, when he actually lost to light, on 2010/07/24, to the end of winnner's league 2011 on 2011/04/09 (4 rounds of proleague), he ended up at 78-22 (78%) and had won the MSL, OSL, got 2nd in WCG korea, carried his team to winner's league final and back into proleague rankings--though utimately lost to bisu at winner's league final-- and his team won 09-10 proleague grand finals with him beating hyuk. I.e. He won everything, except for the formality of first place WCG korea because places 1-3 already qualified and did lose in winner's league playoff. Moreso to my point on teamleagues was that he went 46-9 for 83.64%. Who goes 83% in team leagues with that many games over such a long time? No one except flash. The top gstl players are like 10-1, 11-2, and 10-2, but it's a bit different because that basically just equates to having 1 "all kill" and doing well otherwise. Flash dominated at times when everyone focused 100% on one thing: proleague. Then he also busted out a 14 game win streak sk planet season 1 and all. But win streaks are natural when you dominate proleague so much. | ||
| ||
