One game is not a significant sample size, no matter what. Even if some random bronze terran switched to zerg and beat a pro terran in one game, that doesn't mean anything. There are a whole lot of very small decisions that have very large impacts on the game of Starcraft that create a large amount of variance in the winner. Demuslim is a reasonably good pro, with good mechanics, and a good understanding of TvZ and ZvT, it's not surprising that he was able to take a single game off a terran in ZvT. You'll need a bigger sample size... like someone who plays ZvT and TvZ an equal amount.
Here's an interesting one: Morrow. He plays ZvT and ZvP, but he plays TvZ rather than the ZvZ mirror. From 2012/3/10 - 2012/5/9 (last 2 months before patch), he went: TvZ 23-10 (69.7%), totally imbalanced in Terran's favor ZvT 16-15 (51.6%), reasonably balanced.
From 2012/5/10 - 2012/6/21 (patch to most recent), he went: TvZ 7-15 (31.8%), totally imbalanced in Zerg's favor. ZvT 14-13 (51.9%), reasonably balanced.
All stats are from TLPD international database. People screaming about Terran's lack of power, will note the winrate in TvZ drop from 69.7% to 31.8% and use that as evidence to claim imbalance. People who say that it's actually balanced will note his 51.6% ZvT pre patch and 51.9% ZvT post patch and note that it's still extremely balanced.
The numbers are extremely conflicting. And what they probably show is that Morrow pre-patch had a very good understanding of TvZ and knew exactly how to abuse it (Terran OP with good knowledge prepatch?). Since the patch, his understanding of the matchup is gone and so far he hasn't learned how to abuse Terran as Zerg either. There is also the possibility of different opponent levels throwing off the stats.
Unfortunately, the pro level's best hope for showing ZvT balance still led to inconclusive evidence.
Wow, you should really go into politics the way you´re able to bend facts, sound smart and eloquently work on making my argument look silly! Good job! Really well done!
Ok, let´s make one thing clear once and for all: To find the obvious you don´t need statistics! It may be hard to swallow for you but it just is exactly so. I am a scientist and I can give you shit loads of examples of experiments where you need statistics and the same amount where you just don´t and that would be one of them!
If you think you can disagree then I suggest you read up on the matter before putting out bs to make a point!
On June 25 2012 12:33 MinusPlus wrote: And DerBos...even the people who sympathize with you would disown you for arguing that a single game -- or a single series, even, -- proves whatever it is you're trying to say objectively. You're really going to have to try harder.
I absolutely don´t. For the reasons I gave over and over again! And I certainly won´t start a blog and get opinions and support and what not. That´s politics! It´s got very little to do with the truth. People are stupid! To get the majority doesn´t mean shit with regards to whether it´s right or not! I can totally see that people like you, sadly, will succeed with your way to put things even though you apparently have a significant lack of understanding of the logics behind the situation.
On June 25 2012 13:04 RenSC2 wrote: One game is not a significant sample size, no matter what. Even if some random bronze terran switched to zerg and beat a pro terran in one game, that doesn't mean anything.
No, one example is enough in this case. It´s really strange that nobody here seems to get it! Like I said before, there are tests where you don´t need statistics and that would clearly be one of them! And towards the latter: That would obviously never happen but if it did, that would be an even clearer case!
Btw, here´s sth. that might be of interest if people did not already see that:
On June 25 2012 13:04 RenSC2 wrote: Here's an interesting one: Morrow. He plays ZvT and ZvP, but he plays TvZ rather than the ZvZ mirror. From 2012/3/10 - 2012/5/9 (last 2 months before patch), he went: TvZ 23-10 (69.7%), totally imbalanced in Terran's favor ZvT 16-15 (51.6%), reasonably balanced.
From 2012/5/10 - 2012/6/21 (patch to most recent), he went: TvZ 7-15 (31.8%), totally imbalanced in Zerg's favor. ZvT 14-13 (51.9%), reasonably balanced.
I had not looked into the numbers (Morrow) you provided so far, thanks btw, very interesting. I feel urged to clarify that in Morrow´s case you actually do need statistics because he plays both T and Z equally well (?). The beauty in the DeMuslim vs. ForGG "test" is that DeMuslim has little expertise as Zerg, hence creating a very unfair situation that can only result in a win for him if the game is solidly imbalanced! Just because this case was so extreme, there is no need for statistics.That was my whole point!
For the Morrow stat.s: Morrow´s TvZ worsened immensely with the patch. Now, note that he played multiple Zerg players. But in contrast to his TvZ, only one player´s game changed in his ZvT, namely his own, because his Terran opponents stayed the same pre- and post-patch. So the drop in his Terran performance is based on multiple data points (Zerg players) whereas his ZvT performance pre- and post-patch is influenced by only one player, himself. The fact that his ZvT stayed essentially the same is surprising, but since Terran did not get changed, that strongly suggests that he didn´t exploit the new queen´s potential. Actually, it leaves little room for other explanations because the queen buff´s intention was to strengthen Zerg and apparently did so, looking at his own TvZ and basically all other top Terran´s TvZs and top Zerg´s ZvTs, respectively!
Q: Everyone is saying that Zerg is OP, what do you think? A: Zerg definitely got more powerful, but personally I just feel that other races were sniping zergs too easily before, so now they are finding zergs hard. ZvP hasn't changed match, ZvT is improved, because Terrans are too focused (affected) on the queens, so they are playing very cowardly in ZvT, that's why this phenomenon exists now.
So he's saying Terran's aren't exploring new ways to hit Zerg early.
Q: Everyone is saying that Zerg is OP, what do you think? A: Zerg definitely got more powerful, but personally I just feel that other races were sniping zergs too easily before, so now they are finding zergs hard. ZvP hasn't changed match, ZvT is improved, because Terrans are too focused (affected) on the queens, so they are playing very cowardly in ZvT, that's why this phenomenon exists now.
So he's saying Terran's aren't exploring new ways to hit Zerg early.
So you just read what Violet said and none of the others.
Even MKP say it's the most unbalanced matchup in history, oh wait, MKP sucks we can't trust him right?
Q: Everyone is saying that Zerg is OP, what do you think? A: Zerg definitely got more powerful, but personally I just feel that other races were sniping zergs too easily before, so now they are finding zergs hard. ZvP hasn't changed match, ZvT is improved, because Terrans are too focused (affected) on the queens, so they are playing very cowardly in ZvT, that's why this phenomenon exists now.
So he's saying Terran's aren't exploring new ways to hit Zerg early.
So you just read what Violet said and none of the others.
Even MKP say it's the most unbalanced matchup in history, oh wait, MKP sucks we can't trust him right?
On June 28 2012 19:46 yeint wrote: Well, according to Idra, Zerg needs either better scouting or an everything-proof opening.
It seems he got both.
And he sill won't admit that Z is imba against T right now, getting BOTH better scouting and an almos ALL-PROOF opening at the same time seems a bit like an overkill doesn't it? Especially when snipe got nerfed and ruined completely the late-game anyways.
Q: Everyone is saying that Zerg is OP, what do you think? A: Zerg definitely got more powerful, but personally I just feel that other races were sniping zergs too easily before, so now they are finding zergs hard. ZvP hasn't changed match, ZvT is improved, because Terrans are too focused (affected) on the queens, so they are playing very cowardly in ZvT, that's why this phenomenon exists now.
So he's saying Terran's aren't exploring new ways to hit Zerg early.
So you just read what Violet said and none of the others.
Even MKP say it's the most unbalanced matchup in history, oh wait, MKP sucks we can't trust him right?
because terrans say zerg is too powerful and zergs say terran need to find new ways to play... so? Nobody thinks mkp sucks. for me he is the best terran in the world. Doesn't mean he is always right.
I like how when Terrans were doing well with ghosts and hellions the zergs were crying for nerf and now that they are on the other side of the coin they are telling Terrans what they are doing is wrong and should find a new build.
On July 01 2012 02:36 Debian wrote: I like how when Terrans were doing well with ghosts and hellions the zergs were crying for nerf and now that they are on the other side of the coin they are telling Terrans what they are doing is wrong and should find a new build.
You do realize that's exactly what terrans said then too.
On the topic of the matchup, regardless of balance I now find it boring to watch due to the lack of any pressure in the early game. The trend of essentially nr15 games nowadays turns me off to watching the gsl.
Tonight is pretty ugly for Terran in GSL. Zerg just seem to have too much @ ~ 10 min and the terran timmings attacks to slow them down dont even come close to even doing damage. Least vs Protoss Terran does have powerful timmings the can kill the protoss. In all 5 games so far I still don't get why Terran even builds 6-8 hellions if they arent even going to use them but I guess they can't. Anyway not a something I enjoy watching not only the one sidedness and snowballing but I enjoy powerful timing attacks and the micro and decisions used to hold them off & Zerg seems largly immue to these days.
On June 25 2012 13:04 RenSC2 wrote: One game is not a significant sample size, no matter what. Even if some random bronze terran switched to zerg and beat a pro terran in one game
That is like saying"If there is a god,then tommorow sun will not rise.".So you spend 24 hours in the dark and then you say :"That does not proof anything.".
On June 25 2012 13:04 RenSC2 wrote: One game is not a significant sample size, no matter what. Even if some random bronze terran switched to zerg and beat a pro terran in one game
That is like saying"If there is a god,then tommorow sun will not rise.".So you spend 24 hours in the dark and then you say :"That does not proof anything.".
Proving existence is not the same as proving balance. Proving existence only requires one example of proof.
For example, Taeja, BeatyQT, and Sting all qualified for the TSL and all of them beat at least two zergs between the Ro32 and the final. Any one of those victories proves that a Terran can still win an online qualifier even when playing two or more zerg opponents (proof of existence). However, none of those victories and not even the three of them combined prove that Terran is balanced.
The example initially given (which I responded to) only proved that Demuslim could beat a quality Terran player on ladder while using Zerg. There are too many other variables at play to use that one game to draw conclusions on balance. And that will be true of any single game of Starcraft 2.
I find it hilarious that the Terrans are currently complaining while not too long ago they were on top of everyone. Protoss had this issue too, guess what happened aside a few smaller buffs? They figured out a way to deal with things.
On July 11 2012 07:26 Aelonius wrote: I find it hilarious that the Terrans are currently complaining while not too long ago they were on top of everyone. Protoss had this issue too, guess what happened aside a few smaller buffs? They figured out a way to deal with things.
Maybe it's time for you to learn to adapt too
Terran doesn't seem to be able to win anything atm, regardless if they play against zerg or not, just take todays TSL qualifer, there were 8 Terrans left during the RO of 32 with 8 Zergs and the rest protoss. only two of those games were Terran vs Zerg and yet only 1 Terran made it through only to lose 2-0 against another protoss.
Seriously, Terran players are fucking horrible atm, that's all there is to it.
On July 11 2012 07:26 Aelonius wrote: I find it hilarious that the Terrans are currently complaining while not too long ago they were on top of everyone. Protoss had this issue too, guess what happened aside a few smaller buffs? They figured out a way to deal with things.
Maybe it's time for you to learn to adapt too
This is a late game issue. There's nothing to adapt to because the design is fundamentally flawed. Terran production infrastructure makes Terran tech switching the slowest by far, yet they are the only race that has to counter Zerg T3 with completely different compositions.
Protoss counters Zerg T3 with blink stalkers and a handful of support units (HT + archon toilet). All of those units are created from gateways.
In TvP, the situation is the same - colossus have one counter (vikings), HT/archon has another (ghosts). But the difference is that colossus count can be scouted and viking production adjusted accordingly. In TvZ lategame the Zerg can go from 0 broods to 10+ with corruptor support in under a minute.
This is not a problem in PvZ because the bulk of the army will be the same regardless of broodlord numbers, and a mothership + archons is useful even if the toilet isn't needed. Vikings are dead weight.
Maybe a fully upgraded sky terran could handle it, but it's not possible to get to that point without dying because the units are so terrible in low numbers. And I tend to think sky terran is overrated by silly theorycrafting that ignore realities of production.
Yes, full energy BCs with Yamato can take on equal supply of corruptors. But after they win that one battle, they have no more energy whereas rebuilding corruptors is just a matter of resources banked. And those corruptors are immediately useful.
Basically, if the Zerg gets to a lategame composition comfortably, you can't beat them. The matchup was balanced because that "comfortably" part was not a given. With large maps and the hyper-economic, super-safe 4-6 queen double expand, the "comfortably" part is guaranteed unless Terran goes for some sort of bit by bit SCV train push.
TL;DR - Terran T3 is shit and has always been, Terran late game production is shit and has always been, and any balance change intended to make it impossible for Terran to deny an army-less Zerg a third base will result in both races being at full late game strength. In this case the Terran will always lose because of fundamentally bad design.
On July 11 2012 07:26 Aelonius wrote: I find it hilarious that the Terrans are currently complaining while not too long ago they were on top of everyone. Protoss had this issue too, guess what happened aside a few smaller buffs? They figured out a way to deal with things.
Maybe it's time for you to learn to adapt too
Terran doesn't seem to be able to win anything atm, regardless if they play against zerg or not, just take todays TSL qualifer, there were 8 Terrans left during the RO of 32 with 8 Zergs and the rest protoss. only two of those games were Terran vs Zerg and yet only 1 Terran made it through only to lose 2-0 against another protoss.
Seriously, Terran players are fucking horrible atm, that's all there is to it.
Honestly, I don't understand how its fair that a terran player has to micro like a mad man, multi drop etc etc just to MAYBE beat a zerg. Please tell me how that is fair? You zerg players literally fucking sit there all game, then push out whenever the fuck you want and win.
EPT
