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MLG Betting Day 1

Blogs > rANDY
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rANDY
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United Kingdom748 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-31 21:26:41
March 31 2011 21:26 GMT
#1
Odds...
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Bet on quite a few of these matches, here are my picks:

IdrA vs Socke
4 units on Socke @ 2.01

This bet kind of ties in with IdrA vs Kiwikaki, I got odds of over evens for both of them, and I can't see IdrA winning two PvZ vs top class protoss players, I feel he may be the underdog in both these matches.

qxc vs Ret
7 units on Ret @ 1.606

A bet here on Ret more than a bet against qxc, I feel Ret is going to be hard to stop this MLG until he runs into a top protoss, and the feeling I get from Ret is, like in BW, the ZvT/TvZ matchup is his speciality.

Kiwikaki vs Socke
5 units on Kiwikaki @ 2.445

A match and race matchup that I feel is very close and pretty much a coinflip, therefore a bet on whichever player was going to be over ~2.2

Tyler vs Machine
8 units on Tyler @ 1.680

Tyler and PvZ is a combination I feel very safe betting on. Good value here I believe.

SeleCT vs Ret
7 units on Ret @ 1.676

Same as Ret vs qxc

PainUser vs iNcontrol
5 units on iNc @ 2.380

Two players just below the "elite" group, in my opinion. I give iNc the edge here due to the current trends in the PvT matchup and that I think the players will be similar in terms of skill and preparation.

SLush vs TLO
4 units on SLush @ 2.860

I feel the true odds here are around SLush at ~2.3-2.4, this is a matchup zergs have been having more joy in recently and I think SLush has a better chance that these odds give him credit for.

IdrA vs Kiwikaki
4 units on Kiwikaki @ 2.360

See IdrA vs Socke

Drewbie vs Machine
5 units on Machine @ 2.500

What I believe will be a close match, the bookies have Drewbie as a sizeable favourite, so going to go with Machine, despite no really strong tournament performances yet.



Give me your thoughts on my picks and any bets you've made, and ofcourse good luck

****
Noxie
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States2227 Posts
March 31 2011 21:31 GMT
#2
wish XL Bet was still around... You can't actually bet on the games anymore can you?
DiaBoLuS
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany1638 Posts
March 31 2011 21:39 GMT
#3
youre wrong with drewbie, slush, select and painuser.

drewbie/select/painuser will win their matches, slush will lose to tlo
European Ranking: http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?topic_id=182293
rANDY
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United Kingdom748 Posts
March 31 2011 21:41 GMT
#4
On April 01 2011 06:31 Noxie wrote:
wish XL Bet was still around... You can't actually bet on the games anymore can you?


http://www.pinnaclesports.com/default.aspx

On April 01 2011 06:39 DiaBoLuS wrote:
youre wrong with drewbie, slush, select and painuser.

drewbie/select/painuser will win their matches, slush will lose to tlo


I agree SLush is an underdog but not as much as the odds suggest... the rest we will have to wait and see, you have any bets on?
Thrill
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
2599 Posts
March 31 2011 21:42 GMT
#5
TL needs a liquibet for every tournament :>
rolfe
Profile Joined September 2010
United Kingdom1266 Posts
March 31 2011 21:44 GMT
#6
are there any overall winners odds out yet?

those odds on machine seem pretty crazy, seems like machine is being seriously underrated there.

i generally think your betting looks solid but not so sure about ret - select. i think they're flattering ret a little and it'll be a lot closer than the odds make out. both very strong players ofcourse
life will not be contained. Life breaks free, it expands to new territories and crashes through barriers, painfully, maybe even dangerously but there it is. Life finds a way
kaisr
Profile Joined October 2007
Canada715 Posts
March 31 2011 21:50 GMT
#7
you bet on the world gsl tourney or w/e? July v MVP line has been moving like crazy. I got july at -108 then caught MVP at +124 for a nice little freeroll on july winning.
rANDY
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United Kingdom748 Posts
March 31 2011 22:22 GMT
#8
Had a few bets on GSL World tourney so far

July > Nada @ 1.599 (Win)
TTOne > Moonglade @ 2.170 (Win)
MC > MorroW @ 1.319 (Win)
Sen > MKP @ 2.180 (Loss)

None on for tomorrow's games yet.
Vequeth
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United Kingdom1116 Posts
March 31 2011 22:30 GMT
#9
I dunno man, I have faith that Idra will come out of his slump against these protoss in the big stage environment. Im actually surprised at the TTOne odds.
Aspiring British Caster / Masters Protoss
Xtal
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Haiti385 Posts
March 31 2011 22:33 GMT
#10
Machine finished 6th ....
Have you ever heard the story, about the Zergling and the Probe? The Probe didn't make it across the creep.
rANDY
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United Kingdom748 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-31 22:41:28
March 31 2011 22:40 GMT
#11
Maybe I'm being harsh but I consider a player of his calibre to be disappointed with his best sc2 acheivement so far being a 6th place finish at an MLG, its a good results yes, not a great one.
Vequeth
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United Kingdom1116 Posts
March 31 2011 22:49 GMT
#12
Machine hasnt done anything since the last MLG, which is a long long time in sc2 terms.
Aspiring British Caster / Masters Protoss
VForce
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany90 Posts
April 01 2011 00:58 GMT
#13
I betted on Tyler winning both games (betted more vs Machine), Socke vs Idra (win for Socke), and I am quite sure that qxc has a decent chance vs Ret so I betted quite a bit on qxc @2.4 . Not quite sure yet wether to bet on Select vs Ret as well .... I am quite a fan of Ret even before TSL 2 and it feels kinda wrong to bet against him both games bot I am not confident enough in his TvZ to bet on him at those odds
Zlasher
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States9129 Posts
April 01 2011 01:50 GMT
#14
Dont think I'm allowed to bet from the US, otherwise I would lol.
Follow me: www.twitter.com/zlasher
rANDY
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United Kingdom748 Posts
April 01 2011 21:29 GMT
#15
covered myself on iNc vs PainUser with 6 units on PU @ 2.000 since the odds changed so much in this match, guarenteed 1 unit profit ;p
VForce
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany90 Posts
April 01 2011 23:15 GMT
#16
On April 01 2011 10:50 Zlasher wrote:
Dont think I'm allowed to bet from the US, otherwise I would lol.


Out of curiosety? What would you have betted on ?
VForce
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany90 Posts
April 02 2011 10:17 GMT
#17
Ok thats went not really as I expected but not horribly thanks to the bet on qxc ... are there bets out for the other days? Anyone has a good guess wether there will be some?
Liquid`Zephyr
Profile Blog Joined October 2006
United States996 Posts
April 02 2011 12:55 GMT
#18
im guessing usa people cant bet on this site? still cool to see the lines though
Team LiquidPoorUser
VForce
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany90 Posts
April 02 2011 17:51 GMT
#19
mhh seems that pinnacle for some reasons is only counting the first set from the games from yesterday.
+ Show Spoiler +
Recieved money for the Tyler vs Machine match although I bettet on Tyler and he lost the series but won the first game afaik. pinnacle has it listed as 1-0


btw betted on SWL Playoffs SKT vs OZ as well on OZ@2.71 seemed to be good value as well
+ Show Spoiler +
Unfortunately Bisu>Jaedong in the Ace game
JingleHell
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States11308 Posts
April 02 2011 18:10 GMT
#20
What's the current odds of them getting the HQ stream to work before the end of the event? That's the one I want to see...
VForce
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany90 Posts
April 03 2011 21:12 GMT
#21
ok unfortunately (for me) they corrected the error with the Bo1 instead of counting the actual Bo3.

And just to keep this blog alive:
I betted on Select vs Naniwa:
4 units on SeleCt@2.56 *finger crossed*
THM
Profile Joined November 2010
Bulgaria1131 Posts
April 03 2011 22:23 GMT
#22
Glad to see randy is back with more thoughts on SC2 betting.

Now on topic, I didn't really bet a lot on MLG, just the 3 matches (I thought) were the most appealing. First of course was Tyler vs machine @ 1.68. It looked so perfect but then... oh well. I also bet on Kiwi vs Socke @ 2.45. Thought that was a big mistake by the bookmaker to give such high odds for two players that are relatively on the same level (and PvP as well!). Last, I bet on Incontrol vs Painuser just as you, and was really disappointed to find that the only game he lost on day 1 was vs painuser.... :s
All in all, I was a little behind from that, but that is ok because there is always GSL where I seem to be doing great.

I couldn't stop myself from betting on Dimaga vs nestea when I saw it was 3.00 for Dimaga, a great odd for a ZvZ between two good players, and nestea's streak was bound to end sooner or later. I also got San vs Dimaga @1.83, PvZ and all Also got MVP @ 2.20 vs July, that I feel was another mistake by the bookie, putting july as a favourite vs the best terran in the world.

I giggled a bit when I saw MC vs anypro, it was something like 1.13 vs 5.10, but justified I guess when you see the results hehe. I put some nice money there for MC -1.5 on 1.43. Now, I feel the big offer next round is MC vs Foxer. It's around 1.33 for MC BUT the real deal is MC -1.5 which started around 1.68 when I put my bet. Let's face it, MC is unstoppable now and is most probably going to win, and if he wins it is most probably going to be 3:0 or 3:1, so I feel if there was something to put your money on it would be this..

TLDR: I was a little behind from MLG because of Tyler;
MC vs Foxer @ 1.68 for MC with handicap is a great deal imo!
Wohmfg
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United Kingdom1292 Posts
April 04 2011 01:35 GMT
#23
I don't mean to hijack the thread but I hope this is an appropriate place to ask:

Is there anywhere that I would be able to bet on Brood War?
BW4Life!
SayHello
Profile Joined December 2010
Czech Republic147 Posts
April 04 2011 14:47 GMT
#24
On April 04 2011 10:35 Wohmfg wrote:
Is there anywhere that I would be able to bet on Brood War?


It is possible to bet on brood war @ pinnacle too, but very rarely. I saw only 6 matches past two weeks. There are no other sites offering betting on e-sports as far as i know.
Wohmfg
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United Kingdom1292 Posts
April 04 2011 15:34 GMT
#25
On April 04 2011 23:47 SayHello wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 04 2011 10:35 Wohmfg wrote:
Is there anywhere that I would be able to bet on Brood War?


It is possible to bet on brood war @ pinnacle too, but very rarely. I saw only 6 matches past two weeks. There are no other sites offering betting on e-sports as far as i know.


Cool thanks.
BW4Life!
rANDY
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United Kingdom748 Posts
April 04 2011 16:07 GMT
#26
Hehe Vforce, I took

7 units on Nani > Select @ 1.714

had the chance to bet select to cover myself when the odds changed later but thought it wasn't worth it. Ended up down a small amount after day 1 but ended up positive by the end of the event after betting on nani to beat select and also had winning bets with

7 units on qxc > Haypro @ 2.210
5 units on Socke > HuK @ 2.360


and a losing bet of

6 units on Grubby > Dde @ 2.080

Only open bet I have at the moment is the same as THM

MC vs MKP
9 units on MC(-1.5) @ 1.676


I think the odds on MVP vs san are pretty fair atm so no bet there for me.

Waiting for more bets to appear but might be a while now
VForce
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany90 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-04-04 23:14:12
April 04 2011 23:09 GMT
#27
I would love to have a Blog to discuss betting on SC2 (BW) games so maybe open a new one with a more general name?

Yeah MLG went not so good for me.... I think I was to tired to really think it through (extended series and all that), plus it was harder then normal to judge players performances on the event due to the lack of actual games shown

@GSL: I totaly agree with THM on MC vs MKP with handicap betted that as well.
Betted also a smaller amount on San vs MVP cause I still dont trust MVP's TvP but the odds are not great I agree.

Edit: Ok I see you have blogs for every event :D nice. But damn were the lines good on the TSL3 games .... really considering wether its still worth to bet on Tyler
kaisr
Profile Joined October 2007
Canada715 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-04-04 23:26:48
April 04 2011 23:18 GMT
#28
On April 05 2011 08:09 VForce wrote:
I would love to have a Blog to discuss betting on SC2 (BW) games so maybe open a new one with a more general name?


yeh i agree, very interested in you and others opinions on the lines at pinny - don't wanna miss one of the blogs if it gets pushed out of the blog view. Some thread centralized for this would be very nice. BTW goody (bought at +294) v nani lines changed a whole bunch, I bet on nani (-250) for the freeroll over goody.

I used to always freeroll whenever I had a chance, but randy seems to be against it - so I'm not gonna freeroll sen (bought at -127) v boxer (+170) cuz I think sen is gonna win it pretty easily.

didn't bet on gsl - lines looked ok to me when i looked
rANDY
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United Kingdom748 Posts
April 04 2011 23:25 GMT
#29
I wouldn't mind having a skype instant messaging room for this, if anyones interested PM me ur skype details, going to bed now tho
VForce
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany90 Posts
April 04 2011 23:25 GMT
#30
Yeah Sen/boxer, goody/nani, Tyler/ThorZain have changed quite a lot, no? would have loved to bet on the odds rANDY posted in the other blog
VForce
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany90 Posts
April 04 2011 23:47 GMT
#31
Well neither would I. Normally I am up in the later hours of the evening and idle on TL with my skype on
BUT luckily (or unfortunate for those idea) an opportunity came up for me to go to brasil for 4 month and I am leaving germany tomorrow.
So different time zones unreliable internet and probably lack of time will make it quite hard to get my normal dose of TL and SC2.
But the good thing with Starcraft is, that I am confident that, it will be still around when I am back (and probably bigger then ever ).
THM
Profile Joined November 2010
Bulgaria1131 Posts
April 05 2011 02:40 GMT
#32
On April 05 2011 08:25 rANDY wrote:
I wouldn't mind having a skype instant messaging room for this, if anyones interested PM me ur skype details, going to bed now tho


Great idea, I was also thinking of a more general thread in which to discuss all the sc2 odds, but this is smart too. I'll PM u my details and hopefully we can get it going.

There are TSL odds now! and Tyler is 2.35 vs Thorzain?? That looks really wierd to me, Tyler being an even bigger underdog after round 1. Maybe they are looking too much into his MLG results... but still, sounds like a deal to me.
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