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On January 23 2011 07:35 Fishball wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2011 02:41 CubEdIn wrote:
Nah, Decon left CRP to another mafia that the town couldn't find.
He probably realized that he couldn't "play along" with town if he picked CPR, and it was an important role so the mafia directed it towards someone else.
That being said, if I haven't had protected kita twice, game would have ended sooner for town, so I can assume that my play was pretty much the best it could be. ^__^
(and by play I mean targets during the night) If your intention of protecting kitaman27 was to stop him from hitting BC, then yes it would be a good play. However, that really isn't the case, lol.
I never said it was planned, I said it was the best it could be.
Sheer dumb luck always helps!
But honestly, even though the first time I just wanted to use my power (since i didn't know what kinda doctor I was anyway), the second time it did occur to me that kita might just go for BC again, which helped me pick him as the target, as I thought that was a really bad idea overall.
But I'm not claiming any credit here, I'm just saying that it turned out better than expected... up 'till the end.
Well played jerk SK.
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I hope this breakdown of the game helps people. If you have any questions, comments, or want me to try and do a more detailed breakdown day by day I will try.
SK’s.
I will cover these guys first as both played a much better play than most of the town.
LSB
He was a man with a plan. One that centered around garning roles. Now, he took advantage of the fact he posted his plan pre game. He pushed through it with regardless as most of the player base didn’t see anything wrong with it. It also created a list that made it much harder to randomly pick a role as it remained as a general guideline regardless of how the game. This made it a lot easier not only to figure out what role someone had, but made it also very decent in how to help figure out potential mafia/sk candidates based on who didn’t follow the plan when pressured. His problem this game was that he continued on this route in a game where someone who could catch him quickly did so. Had he pushed this plan while I/any other vet was not in the / had another sk who was concentrated on just finding the reds, he would have gone much farther into the game. He had situated himself as a defacto leader until he was killed as was pretty well free to romp while he was so. Overall he made a ballsy play that backfired. However with the rapid success it was having until I stepped in, he potentially could have won, or at least lived much longer into the game.
JimboSilvers
Some of the most solid play I have seen in I don’t know how long. His analysis was on, his shots were very standard sk, and he managed to stay off radars most of the game. Everyone who was town this game should go back and check out his play. With solid thread presence he would have dominated this game from start to finish without issues. His hiding his politician role was genius.
His only few slipups that put him on my radar were so wifom I couldn’t even justify using them. He breadcrumbed his shots on both zeks and bum + his claim of vet was something I kept as a reaffirmation I was right on my gut shot. However, he managed to stay pretty well off my radar long enough to survive to a point in the game he couldn’t lose in. Kudos.
The Mafia
You guys did a spectacularly set of bad plays which is what put you on not just my radar, but also on Jimbo’s. I am not sure If I should at this point however berate you or praise you for managing to still appear mostly legit to 90% of the town. As such I will only really cover the few huge mistakes.
Decon should never have claimed sk. Period. When he was found out as anti town based off his lying of his role he should have day vigi’d someone who could analyze his team. Bum’s “trick” of having decon reveal his role was a good cover, but decon should have used it to distance himself from his team as much as possible and embraced the role. Secondly, by claiming sk, and then day vigiing lsb (who flipped sk) town thought it only had to find mafia. This took their attention away from the other sk for a bit which is something you guys needed early on.
Second mistake, decon confirming he shot fishball. It instantly linked fish as recruited, as well as revealing decon as a liar. This allowed a steady progression through the thread which helped net his team.
Shooting the sk twice. You guys should have pinned both me and jimbo as sk. When you shot him once and failed, you should have pinned him as sk then shot me. His living that shot should have confirmed to you guys what he was which would have left you able to kill me and potentially save yourselves a day or two longer (doubtful but possible).
The Town
One of the worst showings I have seen period. Had I not been playing you guys would have been steamrolled, period. This is something I have noticed as a reoccurring problem in a few recent games. I will start be listing those problems.
Concentrating on roles not alignment
Spending too much time talking about things that don’t matter
Waiting on roles to do the heavy lifting.
These are three of the largest reoccurring problems. I really hope some of you re-read this game and watch my play. I was slightly more foul mannered than I should have been, but I was a vanilla townie who spent the game analyzing. I didn’t need a role to snag people, I avoided trying to permiate useless topics, and did not expect roles to do much heavy lifting. I did have a plan that would have won it for the town, but we lost that day since it wasn’t followed. Regardless.
In this setup, someones role means nothing. Town, mafia, or SK could be behind that role. Everyone also uses roles differently. Each player follows instincts on who should be protected, shot, investigated, etc.. You cannot reasonably hold someone accountable for a role use if there was a logical reason behind the action. Instead watch someone’s behaviour. If you see someone who is acting anti town in thread, and then claims vig later, chances are you snagged a mafia or sk, however knowing he’s a vig ahead of time then him shooting someone who flips green doesn’t make him red, it just gives the mafia/sk a way to get someone from the town lynched.
Talking about things that don’t matter. Again, centering around blues doing what, making town circles, plans that no one agrees with, etc…
If you center on a topic that is too general, anyone can weigh in and appear to be “contributing” while just easily blending into a crowd. If you want to discuss these things try to do something along the lines of:
Make medic lists. People will discuss why so and so is on it and why others aren’t. It FoS people potentially and gets people talking on a specific topic where real opinions that can be read matter. It also makes mafia hits slightly harder.
DT lists. Same general idea as medic lists.
Talking about circles is usually bad form unless you are forming multiple thought circles. Don’t center around roles, and try not to link yourself to your circle in thread to avoid being read.
Blues doing the heavy lifting. If town’s expect the lone dt, or lone vig, or whatever other blue to save their ass, they are going to lose many times. The game is made up predominately of vanilla townies. The heavy lifting has to be done by them. Be it analyzing clues, behavioural analysis, pm infiltration, etc… Most of the work is done by greens. One dt can only check so many people, a vig can only kill 1 person, etc…
You guys keep thinking you guys are designed to take hits and buy time but in reality that’s the vets job, that’s the hatters job. Your job is to analyze and spot mafia. It may take time to learn this skill but its your job. You guys also have the highest voting power in the game, use it.
Now, I am going to be mostly respectful and not ream the players in this specific game but I want you guys to go back and re-read the thread to see where you went wrong.
Kitaman, Misder, Cube.
Now, I say this for one clear reason. Each of you made actions that cost the town the game. Kitaman shooting me twice/not following a plan that would have won the game , cube not rbing the PoD like he was supposed. Misder for not following the last will of myself. If I net you that many anti town and say that “one of these 3 players is the last sk” and 2 are dead. Don’t analyze the hell out of a player on a confirmed list, just vote for the suspect. If you spend too much time analyzing another player the sk has just won the game. You should have hammered the vote before jimbo could have bought a vote.
I am more than happy for any newer player having questions to answer them If I am capable, but please look at this game and follow both my play, as well as jimbo’s to see what you as a town are capable of doing and ask the players who have been playing for years on how to go about it. Once you learn the games I think will become much more enjoyable for you all, and will create many interesting games. I think we are all getting tired of seeing an inactive mafia sitting back and winning while doing nothing to deserve the win.
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Thanks for taking the time to write all that BC.
I think I should be on the list too though (of people who cheated town out of the win). Since I don't really give a crap about plans and whatnot, I paid no attention whatsoever to the whole pregame discussion and drafting/role picking portions of the game. This had two horrible effects: 1) I completely missed LSB's behavioural problems, and 2) I deliberately made "modkill avoidance posts" which of course look horribly scummy. This led to me later having to use my role too early, and not only did I waste it I actually saved haplo X_X ... If I had saved barundar like I obviously should have, we would have had a MUCH more useful townie (my impression is that barundar is a fairly capable player) and one less scum to lynch later.
Ace, I had actually thrown myself in the pile of "people who are always wrong" as well, which is why I had a hard time posting forcefully this game. And, for the most part, I was wrong. I thought Jimbo was town (until near the end), I thought Haplo was coherent and/or useful day one, I thought LSB was doing his normal plan thing, I thought BC was damn suspicious, I thought Amber was scum, I thought beneather was scum, and I believed fishball's reasoning showing why he wasn't traitor. BUT I did get some things right this game too... I saw the light when LSB flipped and I reinvestigated BC. I knew his plan for bum/haplo/pig made sense and was the right thing to do. And I do think that trying to get jimbo lynched was the smartest move for town at the end when the scum were already gone, not just because he claimed vet...
Anyway, thanks for hosting Ace, GG all, play with you again soon I hope. 
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+1 for BC
You guys keep thinking you guys are designed to take hits and buy time but in reality that’s the vets job, that’s the hatters job. Your job is to analyze and spot mafia.
This is extremely important. Too many greens think its cool to pretend to be a lurking blue in an attempt to draw a hit. This game is a prime example of where that won't help the town. When there's only two really pro-town analyzers in the game, mafia's strategy should be simply to snipe them off. Given how towns have been playing recently, all an active mafia needs to do is knock off the town analyzers and manipulate the rest of the blues to kill themselves off/not get useful information. If more townies would step up to do analysis and pressure mafia, that would drastically improve game quality.
Perhaps one of the biggest problems is not that townies don't know what to do, but they don't know how to do it. Ver's analysis of TL Mafia XXX is again a great resource. Just looking at this game and a few others, townies let up the pressure on people way too easily by being indecisive, wishy washy, and too quick to switch votes or relieve pressure. Pressuring people doesn't work if you just vote here, then switch a couple hours later to a different target just because your original target popped up to post. Pressuring people works when you post like you mean it. You need to come off as if you're laying down the hammer. You need to be bold in your accusations and intimidate your target so that they KNOW they're under the microscope and that there is no escape. Different players have different ways about doing this. Some players like BC go on a rampage once they've found a target. They post frequently, gun for their target with every single post, and focus the town discussion on the lynch. Its very dangerous to get under these players' crosshairs because its hard to escape both from scrutiny and the lynch. The key to playing this style is a) pressure your target, don't argue with them. You don't need to convince your target that they are mafia. They're obviously not going to agree with you no matter what alignment they are. b) At the same time that you're ensuring your target that he isn't going to escape, you have to convince the town to lynch them. You have to have two different attitudes toward your target and toward the town as a whole. Obviously there are some townies who will disagree with you, and some mafia in the mix who will disagree with you if you're on the right track (unless they're trying to bus). But you need support. You don't want to alienate potential voters.
Obviously, not everyone has time to be as active as BC (this game), Pandain, DH, and others. But players like jimbo (from day 2 onwards at least), Ace, and Ver show that you don't have to dominate the thread, in order to shake up the game. Take a look at jimbo's proposed hit list and follow ups. Obviously, you have to have the right targets. But ignoring that, lets look at how it works. Look at the tone of the post. Its provocative and decisive. He's not tempering his words by using doubt and uncertainty modifiers to soften the impact of his accusations. He doesn't leave room for the target to be wishy washy about their response. He doesn't give them a chance to prove anything or argue back. Doesn't allow the target to clutter the thread without looking really suspicious, so it doesn't drag the town into confusion and wifom. Furthermore, short concise attacks are really scary from the target's point of view, especially if you're mafia. How do you deal with them? You don't know what the analyst is thinking. How do you respond? Do you respond? How do you react without being overly defensive? You don't know what kind of response they want to see. Using the aggressive rampage style I described in the previous paragraph runs the risk that your target spams their way off the chopping block just by causing mass confusion and making other townies' heads hurt. With this style, you might not get the thread presence necessary to pull off the lynch, but it can be a very powerful way to draw out the mafia and make them panic/overreact.
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I planned it around the player list, I didn't see any big mafia hunters there, so I figured out that if I could neutralize the blue threat I should be good.
In my opinion this is a mistake. When you don't see any big mafia hunters, it is critical that SKs actively try to kill mafia. SK is one person. There are 5, potentially 6 mafia in the game. Eventually, SK needs mafia offed. And sooner is better than later, since mafia have the ability to vote as a group if they want to.
There are only a handful of roles that actually threaten SK. BB, Dayvig, Rolecop (only if you have a very pro-SK role like politician) and potentially GF. Parity doesn't show SK, and tracker doesn't hurt if you get a role (which unfortunately LSB didn't). Other than those roles, SK only needs to worry about being lynched. And usually its easy to avoid lynch if you're pro-town. Thus, a good SK strategy has to revolve around a balance between scumhunting and eliminating potential blue roles. After day 1 in this game, it is clear that SK needs to be pro-town to win. The Bullet Bill is dead, removing a major obstacle to victory. And CC has the dayvig, so all you have to do is pop him night 2. 4 deaths is harsh though especially since all of them were town. Before day 1 perhaps it would have been a decent idea to keep a low profile. After the night 1 kills though, it was clear that SK needed to play pro-town to have a shot at winning.
Fundamentally flawed strategy, but good day 1 hit, eliminating a strong potential enemy. The plan was eventually his demise with BC's accusation. LSB had a decent blue-sniping strategy, but the introduction of jimbo's plan and a lack of coherence in what the town was doing undermined LSB's ability to carry out his plan effectively. Furthermore, the fact that the plan was anti-town ultimately kept him from getting past town scrutiny. Even if he hadn't been shot by the dayvig, I don't think he stood a chance to escape a lynch before the end of the game.
Jimbo played an awesome game. Great pick with politician, and good use of it too. A few mistakes along the way, but overall strong performance. A bit too pro-town in the beginning, I think, which caused him to take too many hits from the mafia, which in turn prolonged the game since deaths occured less slowly. Haplo getting saved was unfortunate, as was the double roleblock on kita, though those were out of his control. The biggest mistake though, was the bumatlarge hit, which turned a likely victory into a drawn out game. I don't know if that was a miscalculation or a slipup, but hitting a townie on that night would've guaranteed a win unless more townies didn't show up to vote or got modkilled, especially since town would have to lynch CPR to have a chance.
Mafia:
Mafia seemed to be doing fairly well up until the day 2 fiasco. A mafia was luckily saved by an unknowing witch night 1, nobody had any decent leads, people were focusing too much on the traitor, the whole town was in disarray, and town lost its Bullet Bill and Dayvig. Mafia pretty much went under the radar day 1, and Fishball did a great job at confusing the town, inserting chaos, and stopping things from getting done. However, due to a lack of planning, it went down from there. BC got the rest of it pretty much right.
About role picks: I don't think the mafia took advantage of their strong position. Mafia got first position yet again, and should've nabbed some strong town roles. Contrary to the general town consensus in the past few games, copycat actually isn't a very strong role. It only becomes strong if paired with dayvig, but with the way things went this game, I think it was a pretty weak pick. First off, mafia got first spot, so theres no reason to get a copy of any role in the game when you literally can pick whatever you want. Second, there was confusion in the town due to some people following LSB's plan, some people deliberately not following it, and the potential that some people would go for jimbo's plan. This confusion makes it hard for mafia to exploit the CC role. Furthermore, it was a great opportunity for the mafia to snag a town role like JOAT, BB, or even veteran and get away with it, as deconduo could have easily covered it up by saying he was following Jimbo's plan. Veteran would be especially awesome, as you waste a town lynch and get +2 NK to show for it. Roleblocker would've also been a good option, given that town relies too much on roles and role confirmations.
Bum's CPR pick was solid, as town had no way of knowing it wasn't going to be picked in the first pick.
Haplo's parity pick makes sense, at it denies town a nice information role. However, given that Eiii stated that he was following the plan, mafia didn't need to deny. It wouldn't have been difficult to shoot Eiii night 1 or picking roleblock and roleblock him night to delay the effective usefulness of the role until day 4. Doctor would've also been another great pick to protect mafia from town KP shots, or cause confusion by saving CPR target in order to cause chaos in the town.
Zeks. Now this is one role pick that I don't get at all. Mafia doesn't benefit by picking mason, it just opens them to more scrutiny. Misinformation could be a potential strategy with mafia mason, but there is a risk of being caught in PMs. Given the fact that zeks was hardly active and isn't a dominant or manipulative player, it doesn't make sense to pick this role. Especially since you deny yourself the chance of getting other good roles. At this point, dayvig or pardoner is a great pick, as is politician. I'm kinda surprised politician wasn't seriously discussed the entire game. Its a great role for SK, good for the mafia, and decent as town. Also would cause some chaos and hilarity if mafia is buying people's votes and making them look suspicious.
Pigsquirrel. PoD makes sense as a pick, but claiming it in thread then using it is just terrible strategy. Even ignoring that, the timing of using the role was bad. This role should've been hidden from town (for example, just claim to get vanilla from picking random role), and used at the very last for a 2 KP boost at a critical moment in order to ensure a win.
The Plans
As heavily discussed pre-game, LSB's plan was very anti-town. Jimbo's, on the other hand, is a more palatable proposition. Basically it is an improved variation of Qatol's original PYP plan, in that it allows town to snatch up the really good town roles before dealing with the "controlled roles". Jimbo suggested having 6 of the best town roles in the top 6 picks, although I would've added another slot for another medic pick. This plan deals with three problems in a plan where the controlled roles are in the top. First, it takes advantage of the fact that mafia is likely to get a pick in the top, but is unlikely to get multiple top slots. Thus, the plan allows town to maximize their picks of good pro-town roles. Secondly, the addition of two great defensive roles and a medic alongside parity cop, BB, and JOAT ensure that mafia can't just snipe the top of the list. Thirdly, moving the "controlled" list to the middle of the list hurts mafia because that's where the mafia are most likely to be concentrated. It also denies mafia further down the list the use of these dangerous roles. Although there would still be problems about people picking traitor and townies picking overlapping roles in the top 6-7, I still think this plan is a reasonable proposition, and is certainly an improvement over previous PYP plans.
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Not sure if others agree, but i found the best argument for lynching jimbo as sk over bc was their method for fingering deconduo. When lsb flipped, the real sk must have realised that deconduo was a fake, and the first one to analyse deconduo and demand him lynched was jimbo.
The difference between jimbos and bc's argument against deconduo was what they tried to nail him on. Bc speculated that deconduo could be fake claiming sk, and through the thread became more certain of himself. Jimbo simply analysed. Arguing that deconduo was scum beceause he fake claimed sk would of course give away how he knew.
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I'm glad to see a few people posted something substantial. Guess people are bored with sk winning though. I'll post my thought process and comments as well on stuff ppl havent addressed.
When I got my role my immediate plan was to lynch mafia and shoot townies who had key roles. While only rolecop, doctors, day vigi, roleblocker, and especially bullet bill are serious threats, I wanted to keep both the town and mafia in the dark as long as possible. I picked politician since securing a role for sk is crucial, nobody is likely to pick it, it's the most powerful endgame role, and I was half considering pissing people off who annoyed me, eg LSB, by screwing with their vote. In the beginning I didn't think I had a real shot at winning cause its sk and wanted to play balls out and just have fun, as lurking last game as mafia was stupid and boring. I wanted to be proactive but the team didn't want nor need to. Wasn't going to let being SK stop me from being crazy.
However, that idea came to a rude halt in pregame and day 1 when, LSB's plan was favored over my own LOL, and my posts were overall just completed ignored. "Who cares about the godamn traitor guys find scum the traitor will reveal itself once people start dying." Then layoffrage gets lynched by the 'KILL DA TRAITOR' witch hunt even though its 100% certain hes not scum by how easily he got lynched. zzzzzz
+ Show Spoiler [plan] +On January 08 2011 07:24 JimboSilvers wrote:I lied. My plan isn't simple. But it is still effective  . JIMBOS PLANHere are the results from the past two PYP games. Show nested quote +
#1 Order 2 10 13 18
Picks:
1 1
6 1
8 1
12 1
#2 Order 1 7 8 13
Picks:
1 3
13 20
3 1
11 1 - couldnt coordinate with mafia
I was thinking from the perspective of using past game drafting patterns to be able to put the important town roles in a certain area. However I did not consider what lsb is saying, in that I would have no way of proving myself to be town in that time and thus could just as easily be mafia trying to get my buddies what we want. So we'll see how it goes right now though. What I noticed in reading both past games - Thanks Ace for suggesting it! - is that mafia has a very difficult time getting top a number of picks or do not want to for several reasons. As you can see both games they got in the top 2 slots but then their picks start jumping all over the place. There are various reasons for that, as having top picks in these games wasn't always ideal, but it got me thinking. Say the mafia want to get most of the top picks. How do they do it? 1- they can try picking a bunch of the top numbers; eg 1 2 3 4 5. However, this will inevitably produce clashing since townies will surely do so as well and mafia definitely won't remain in the top. They might get 1-2 in the top 8 or so, but the rest of their members will be stinking low in consequence.
2- Mafia picks numbers all over the place and hopes the town clashes a lot. This is purely luck and probability means 1-2 mafia will be in the top 6, which is A-OKAY.
3- They could triple up on a high number e.g 1, then have the other 2 picking likely unique numbers eg 13, and hope everyone else clashes. This gives them a legitimate chance of getting up there in numbers but it also very well might screw them over completely.
Mafia have a much easier time assuring themselves a number of picks in the middle, namely by clashing with each other on a high number and spreading some with high numbers unlikely to be picked.
If anyone has any way the mafia could assure themselves a majority of the top slots, please post so. Otherwise I think I'm onto something. 
The reason this is important is where the assigned roles are. We clearly need to have a few roles accountable. The previous plans, and current plan, followed the train of thought that KP boosting and important-to-deny-mafia roles needed to be picked first. What ended up happening was that the first 3 or more slots were sealed up, eg it didn't matter what alignment the people who got them were because they were held on accountability.EG If the prince of darkness acts, something's wrong and he must die. That meant that the best town roles got thrown into 4-something, where the majority of the mafia will be located. This doesn't make sense. We want the pro town roles in the hands of the town and the anti town roles in the hands of ACCOUNTABLE mafia (or town or sk). Superduper Town roles=
Jack
Bullet Bill
Bullet Proof
Parity Cop
Doctor
Veteran
In addition there are some solid to mediocre town roles. Role Cop=
Mason
Tracker
Hider
Witch
Accountable Roles=
CPR Doc
vigi
Roleblocker
Copycat - because of the day vigi the infinite kp role point brought up earlier
Now you might object that there will be clashes. Yes, there will. And that is not actually that horrible. For one, mafia will clash too. They won't be able to get what they want as easily. And mafia clashing will make other roles better, namely Tracker. A roleblocking mafia gets followed to his roleblock target. A vanilla mafia gets followed to the kill . For two, it's more important that good townies get the really superduper roles and we get a few greens than the really superduper roles die right away because they are known and we're left with the shitty roles. Jack and Bullet Bill and infinitely better than Tracker or Mason. It doesn't really matter what alignment comp vigi and CPR doc are as long as we know who they are. If their shots don't follow their assigned targets, then we know they're mafia. So- JIMBOS PROPOSAL-Players 1-6 will pick a very pro town role. Preferably one of those I listed in blue but there are some others like witch that can prove useful too or hider to mess with hits going in the top 6. -Players 7-10 will pick CPR doc, vigi, Roleblocker, and Copycat in that order. Town will vote during the night phase for the kp to use as a type of extra lynches. They don't follow orders, they die. Maybe we should assign Prince as #11? I'm not sure how bad this role actually is for the town? Janitor as #12? Might be nasty. -Everyone else picks what they want. Mafia can pretty much guarantee they will get 1 person in the top 6 somewhere, maybe two as they have 5 people. But that still leaves a 4-5 townies with very powerful roles. We need those roles to win. What's better, the mafia cannot exploit this fact like they can an LSB list because of the bulletproof/veteran threat and the fact that the doctor will likely protect in that area. The things I'm not certain on are should we do anything about the kinda mediocre pro scum roles? Or just tell townies not to pick them and have rolecop know if he gets scum by seeing that pop up? And is 6 the right number for the cutoff? FEEDBACK PEOPLE LETS GOGOGOO
I honestly still think my plan is good and would have worked well . Yes it does help the SK -I had no idea there were two until after the 5 kill night one - in the sense that the SK ignores bulletproof and can fire into the top part of the list with impunity. But outside of that, it could have served the town superbly. As we notice, mafia picked numbers 1 2 3 4 5 lmao and got picks 1 10 11 14 20. Town could've had a great pick of roles in the sweetspot area. The fact that it was almost totally ignored is really sad.
Anyways after seeing what happened day 1 and how i was invisible I realized that unless I put a ton of effort into arguing, something I wasn't in the mood for as sk, I couldn't effectively get mafia lynched on my own. Thus I had to shoot mostly scum and hope scum would kill the good roles. Fortunately lsb took out the only key role bullet bill and after that it was all good and my scum picks were dead on.
Day 2 I cannot believe the town just sat there and let deconduo get away with a serial killer claim in the shadiest circumstances. I had extra information here - it was unlikely there was 3 sks - but the town has no reason to let the "sk" live. He isn't going to cooperate with you longer than he sees fit lol and there's a good chance he's scum bullshitting anyways, as was the case. Why the hell would serial killer just claim like that. As soon as he claims he has effectively a zero percent chance at victory, so he would only claim in the absolute most dire of situations, which I did not feel he was in when it happened. His foreshadowed drunk cc pick was perfect cover.
It was also clear by day 2 scum were not trying very hard to hide themselves because nobody was focusing on them. I think bloodycobbler also picked up on this? This realization helped narrow down targets considerably. Overall day 2 no lynch was awful when deconduo and fishball were both huge anti town players. After that bloodycobbler became more active and things started going in the right direction ending with the fishball lynch.
End of day 3 I actually was quite confused because both beneather and aidnai started looking incredibly scummy. So I take a hit and have been sporadically inactive but very pro town and am doing the right things and going for the right people, just getting ignored. I claim I take a hit and the town pieces things together and gets fishball lynched.
Then aidnai starts getting people to claim bulletproof and vet hoping to 'confirm my role' or something ridiculous, and of fucking course beneather has to respond within moments - after saying nothing the entire game - "yea im bulletproof". WTF? I mean, that is really anti town action. The biggest asset town has for roles is that scum/sk don't know who is proted by doctor, bulletproof, vet, or sk when a hit doesn't go through. That uncertainty is crucial to keep real town assets alive, which I was, and make scum second guess their hits. Beneather could have easily soaked up a hit and maybe even led scum into thinking he was sk until he claimed and made sure scum would just ignore him. But would scum be THAT obvious? I was seriously considering shooting one of them - especially aidnai for saving haplo in the scummiest circumstances - but figured amber's roleblock was too dangerous. I mean holy shit it doesn't really matter that much if you prove my role or not. If I was a town vet it would've been a disastrous move as I would've died when shot next and mafia wouldve had no qualms about doing so cause my role was in the open.
I don't think scum were in that bad of a position after fishball got lynched. While the other 3 were obvious, I thought aidnai was the last scum instead of pigsquirrel . It boggles me mind why they would use PoD that night instead of the next when the numbers clearly indicated it wouldn't bring them near victory. But using PoD basically wrecked their team.
I made a major mistake when I shot bum instead of well, anyone lol. I kept panicking and switching my target. Originally I was going to shoot bloodycobbler as he was the only real threat, but I had a few things to consider:
1- kitaman might shoot bloodycobbler AGAIN
2- Scum most likely would shoot bloodycobbler and kita instead of me and kita because he was being much more active and in their faces. I was simply trying to shadow him, prevent kita from being stupid, and get credit for slaughtering the scum team. Still not sure why they shot me.
3- Most importantly, if bloodycobbler dies, scum might actually convince town and i cant trust myself to sway the town after what happened early game.
That's why I shot bum, assuming kita or scum would shoot bloodycobbler. Instead I get shot and kita shoots another scum. Worst case scenario lol. Still I had a 100% chance of victory if everyone shot normally. When it didn't, I had to choose between shooting cob or one of his sheep. Should I tempt fate with misder's fixation on cob being sk and cobs dead on analysis of me, somehow. Or should I kill cob and try to outargue the remainder who have no idea whats going on but have this bizarre fixation on my role, use bad logic, and refuse to consider anyone else because of a worst case scenario possibility. Was quite the odd choice.
Other comments:
One thing I don't understand is how bloodycobbler was remotely suspicious, first to get shot twice by the town vigi, second when people thought he was sk lategame. The guy reeked of green from the moment he got lsb killed. Scum clearly don't need to do that and cob was putting way too much effort in for anything but a townie, given the circumstances.
eii should have come out the moment he didn't get parity cop. ZAP haplo lynch day 1. If he called out that he'd pick such a pro town role and someone took it without saying a word, that someone is very obviously scum trying to deny a powerful role. A townie would at least say something so eii wouldnt get screwed over.
Kenpachi picking GF was very poor, I have no idea why he would even consider it. Jack is the most powerful role in the game arguably and when he didn't take it, nobody would even try. Maybe for bullet bill veteran or bulletproof i could see it but godfather? Who cares lol.
Scum picks didn't make sense to me. Hiding the cpr is great sure, and I can understand denying parity cop and taking PoD, but mason? Copycat? Those are trash compared to stuff like Veteran, imo best role for scum, pardoner, bulletproof, roleblocker, and doctor. Maybe janitor, or hell, politician. If scum shoots bloodycobbler and use janitor, how does anyone know cob is actually town? And politician is a monster card in the endgame. Scum shouldn't have cared about fitting in with da plan or anything. When LSB's plans were so anti town its easy to say "shove it" and take what you want. Whatever the case, pigsquirrel should never EVER EVER have claimed PoD. Town had no way of knowing who it was. It was the best hidden spot one could have it and he just had to blow his top and then use it.
I thought LSB did a good job of appearing in day 1, at least to me, like a very very stubborn idiot who doesn't realize how stupid he is. I was simply content to just treat him as an invisible poster. Kudos to bloodycobbler for shutting down his nonsense. You got balls LSB lol. I would not have felt comfortable with such a risky plan at all. Im jealous at how much cooler your approach was than mine  .
Fishball did great I feel by just goading people into fights and attracting focus while not doing anything overtly suspicious that would get him lynched right away. He dominated the town's attention while still living 2 days. After he died no scum were on any townies radar besides bloodycobblers. The rest of the scum was content to just piggyback off of fishball which was a major mistake imo cause once he was gone they were wide out in the open.
And of course superb play by bloodycobbler. No way could I have put up with what you did as town without getting pissed and flaming excessively or something - if i would even have the time in the first place to post enough to outshout everyone else. This is why I'm probably not going to play for awhile - scum is no fun if you can win by lurking and having to put up with all this stupidity and the town's tendency to focus on the absolute wrong things and people, as addressed above, is not enjoyable.
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On January 24 2011 17:05 Barundar wrote:
Not sure if others agree, but i found the best argument for lynching jimbo as sk over bc was their method for fingering deconduo. When lsb flipped, the real sk must have realised that deconduo was a fake, and the first one to analyse deconduo and demand him lynched was jimbo.
The difference between jimbos and bc's argument against deconduo was what they tried to nail him on. Bc speculated that deconduo could be fake claiming sk, and through the thread became more certain of himself. Jimbo simply analysed. Arguing that deconduo was scum beceause he fake claimed sk would of course give away how he knew.
That's pretty cool reasoning but it's clearly something you made in hindsight: i posted my analysis of deconduo before he ever said a word about his cc or sk claim. After that I didn't really post until like 50 hours later and talked about other people lol. And after fishball was lynched it was obvious decon had to be scum so it's irrelevant at that point.
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On January 24 2011 17:05 Barundar wrote:
Not sure if others agree, but i found the best argument for lynching jimbo as sk over bc was their method for fingering deconduo. When lsb flipped, the real sk must have realised that deconduo was a fake, and the first one to analyse deconduo and demand him lynched was jimbo.
The difference between jimbos and bc's argument against deconduo was what they tried to nail him on. Bc speculated that deconduo could be fake claiming sk, and through the thread became more certain of himself. Jimbo simply analysed. Arguing that deconduo was scum beceause he fake claimed sk would of course give away how he knew.
Jimbo actually fingered deconduo before LSB flipped. Even so, what would SK gain by getting town to lynch the other SK? So much easier just to snipe him at night without anyone ever knowing.
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Lol I like this jimbosilvers. Cool how he seems to have the exact same thoughts as me...
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On January 24 2011 17:16 JimboSilvers wrote:That's pretty cool reasoning but it's clearly something you made in hindsight: i posted my analysis of deconduo before he ever said a word about his cc or sk claim. After that I didn't really post until like 50 hours later and talked about other people lol. And after fishball was lynched it was obvious decon had to be scum so it's irrelevant at that point.
Wasn't in hindsigt! Ace kept the role list hidden from me so I had to keep guessing. Guess it would then have been faulty reasoning with a lucky correct answer.
On January 24 2011 17:17 Incognito wrote:
Jimbo actually fingered deconduo before LSB flipped. Even so, what would SK gain by getting town to lynch the other SK? So much easier just to snipe him at night without anyone ever knowing.
He wasn't trying to get an SK lynched, but a scum fake claiming SK. My theory was he just kept information he had regarding deconduo secret, while BC reasoned his way into assuming deconduo was fake claiming openly. The real SK knew deconduo was fake claiming, and had no interest in sharing this information with the town. BC would thus have had to put up a nice show in the thread to be the SK.
Atleast it made sense in my head
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FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
Original Message From flamewheel:
Actually I think it'd be optimal for jimbo to shoot BC. While it's not auto-win, it's also not auto-lose for him.
There's four KP to go around this night at 7v4v1. Town has kita, Mafia has CPR (bum) and its regular shot, and Jimbo has SK shot.
For its two shots, it's most likely that Mafia will hit two of kita/BC/jimbo, with kita most likely dying since Mafia can't afford to lose numbers at night. If that's the case, then between BC and jimbo, that KP will not mean anything since if they hit jimbo, he can't die. And if they shoot BC, then SK and Mafia KP overlap.
kita has three choices: try to shoot CPR doc, try to shoot other Mafia, or be a dumbass and shoot BC again. If he shoots BC, then in the night two shots are wasted, leaving us at 5v4v1 with kita and BC dying (triple stacked). At that point, town can't afford to lynch SK or else they will lose during the night. With politician, jimbo can get Mafia lynched.
If he gets bum lynched, then it's 5v3v1 going into the night with 2 KP--Mafia and SK going on. If both jimbo and Mafia shoot town, then it's 3v3v1 going into the day. If Mafia shoot jimbo, then it's 4v3v1 . In both scenarios, town once again can't lynch SK or else they lose. In either case, it doesn't matter if a lynch is effected or not. 3v3v1 going into night means that jimbo shoots Mafia and Mafia shoots town, leaving it at 2-2-1. If it's 4v3v1 going into night kill two town and it's 2v3v1. Buy a vote, make sure nothing can happen. Mafia kills town, jimbo kills Mafia. 1v2v1. With only four people left jimbo's two votes can prevent a lynch from happening. At that point, Mafia has nobody to shoot (assuming they did the smart thing and left Beneather alone) and Jimbo kills Mafia. 1v1v1. At that point, if kenpachi is still alive Jimbo buys a vote and gets Mafia lynched. Shoots kenpachi during night, and game is over.
There are a few loops to this system--if town somehow retardedly lynches kenpachi, then kenpachi can kill SK. But if that happens, town loses. While they're dumb, I don't think they're THAT dumb to let that happen.
Going back to the 3v3v1 or 4v3v1 if a lynch happens...
If kenpachi is lynched then it's 2v3v1 with kenpachi's choice of who to kill, and he'd kill Mafia. That's 2v2v1 and the scenario plays out as above, with SK winning again. If another townie is lynched, at 2v3v1 jimbo shoots Mafia at night, Mafia shoots town, leaving it at 1v2v1. Jimbo wins. If Mafia doesn't get a kill, then it's 2v2v1 with a lynch coming up. As soon as one person votes, Jimbo takes somebody else's vote and that person is lynched. Regardless of whether or not it's Mafia or town, at night with 1v2v1 or 2v1v1 Jimbo shoots whoever's up in number, leading to a 1v1v1 and a jimbo win.
So this situation assumes that kita, Mafia, and jimbo all stack on BC. There are a few more outlandish scenarios missing (like if Mafia shoots beneather early on in the runthrough) but there is no way for Jimbo to immediately lose.
Now, if kita shoots non-CPR red, Jimbo shoots BC and Mafia shoot kita and BC/jimbo, that means there are three deaths at night, leaving it at 5v3v1. With CPR doc in play, town still can't lynch CPR. With the number advantage, it's a short cry to seeing a Mafia getting lynched.
If CPR is lynched, then it's 4v2v1. Mafia and jimbo shoot town at night, leading to a 2v2v1 situation (3v2v1 if Mafia shoot Jimbo/beneather). In the 2v2v1 Jimbo proceeds as delineated above: buy vote instantly, get somebody lynched (as long as it's not kenpachi), and proceeds to shoot and win. If 3v2v1, town still can't eliminate SK, and with a vote buy another Mafia can be lynched for a 3v1v1. Mafia shoots town at night, Jimbo shoots town at night (and at this point they know not to shoot beneather/Jimbo) for a 1v1v1 and a Jimbo win. If Mafia still haven't gotten the clue and shoot Jimbo, then 2v1v1 into Jimbo stall into win at night by shooting.
If the CPR isn't lynched but another red is, then 4v2v1 still occurs. In this case, Mafia shoot two town at night and Jimbo shoots non-CPR. If Mafia score with both kills, then it's 2v1v1 into Jimbo win. If one Mafia hit lands on Jimbo/beneather then it's 3v1v1. Town can't lynch Jimbo because CPR kills two at night (ignore beneather) and then the game is won. If town lynches the last remaining Mafia, then jimbo shoots at night for a 2v0v1 and buys a vote, winning the game.
Once again, situations that are more outlandish are ignored. Lastly, let's assume kita hits bum. Mafia hit kita and BC/jimbo again and jimbo hits BC. bum, kita, and BC die, leaving it at 5v3v1. While this is most probable case to happen, it's also the worst for jimbo. At 5v3v1 with CPR dead, town can afford to lynch SK. At this point though, I think jimbo will be able to out-argue somebody (i.e. beneather) and get away. If he doesn't, then town wins with perfect lynches. If he does, then town lynches beneather for a 4v3v1. Mafia shoots town, Jimbo shoots Mafia for a 3v2v1. Town can't afford to lynch SK anymore, leading to either no lynch or a Mafia lynch. Jimbo wins by shooting whoever's up in the night then spending his remaining days buying votes.
BC over any other townie. Kenpachi's power is scary, but town cannot lynch kenpachi or else they will lose. If jimbo hits red and kita hits red, then a few things can happen:
kita/Jimbo overlap and Mafia kill kita and target BC/Jimbo. BC is more likely to get hit, but if Jimbo takes the hit and stay alive, then it's 6v3v1 with SK and CPR alive. At this point, BC takes charge. He gets bum lynched and it's 6v2v1. Jimbo shoots town at night and Mafia shoots town at night. If there is no overlap, then it's 4v2v1. At this point, town can afford to get SK lynched since they know the rest of the Mafia. Bad for Jimbo.
If hits overlap, then it's even worse. At 5v2v1, town wins with an SK lynch then two Mafia lynches since Mafia won't be able to kill enough.
If kita/Jimbo overlap on bum, then it's 6v3v1 still, but if BC stays alive he will definitely focus the SK, since 6v3 is town win since he can just get the rest of the Mafia lynched. Bad for SK.
Even worse is if kita/Jimbo hit separate Mafia. If they both shoot red but don't hit bum, then there are only 2 Mafia left. If BC lives, then kita dies and it's 6v2v1. BC gets bum lynched, then proceeds to get Jimbo lynched the next day since it would be 4v1v1. Jimbo loses.
In this case, I think it's best (and imperative) for Jimbo to keep Mafia-town numbers equal, so neither side will be able to off him.
If Jimbo hits a non-BC townie (say kenpachi) there are a few more scenarios. BC and kita get shot and killed by Mafia. kita can hit red/CPR/BC. If he hits red, then it's 4-3-1. Jimbo doesn't care about the lynch. If Mafia is lynched and isn't CPR, then 4-2-1 at night Jimbo kills CPR and Mafia kill two town, making it 2-1-1. Jimbo wins in this case. If Mafia isn't lynched (no lynch/town lynch) then Jimbo hits Mafia at night. If there was a town lynch, then it becomes 1-2-1 and Jimbo stalls with vote buying and wins. If there was no lynch, it's 2-2-1 and Jimbo autolynches somebody as soon as he sees one vote. He wins at night. This is a good case for Jimbo, but it relies on BC being dead from Mafia/kita shot.
If kita hits CPR, then 4-3-1 is a good thing. But if Mafia hit kita/Jimbo then it's 5v3v1 with BC still alive and CPR dead. At this point in time, BC can lynch jimbo for a 5-3. With perfect lynches, town wins.
While it's a slim possibility, if BC stays alive then he's the biggest threat to Jimbo.
Did I miss anything? I pretty much just spewed raw thoughts out. If you read this I would be very impressed o.0
Your thoughts are wanted!
In lieu of writing something useful I'll post this PM I sent to Ace, detailing why shooting BC would have been the game-winning move. There's a version with about two thousand words more detailing out scenarios more in depth, but that's been lost to the winds. Anyway Incognito you're cute.
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Mafia had 4 main suspects for SK's the entire game. kitaman27, LSB, BloodyC0bbler, and JimboSilvers.
We, or me specifically, never made a direct case against LSB. Besides calling his plan dumb, to which I enjoyed every single opportunity to do so, it was mainly beating around the bush.
As soon as BC made his move on LSB, I couldn't help but be the first one to jump on the wagon and get a free ride.
On a side note, I've restored my faith in humanity after seeing many of you agreed that it was a bad move for deconduo to claim SK. I felt so alienated when I was the only one to oppose that move.
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On January 24 2011 17:09 JimboSilvers wrote:
And of course superb play by bloodycobbler. No way could I have put up with what you did as town without getting pissed and flaming excessively or something - if i would even have the time in the first place to post enough to outshout everyone else. This is why I'm probably not going to play for awhile - scum is no fun if you can win by lurking and having to put up with all this stupidity and the town's tendency to focus on the absolute wrong things and people, as addressed above, is not enjoyable.
I almost rage quit the entire fucking game after kita shot me the first time, and the second time. One of my comments after both cases was "town does not deserve to win" which in part played its downfall as I didn't even bother looking for the second sk until the reds were dead. I had a suspicion of who it was but once town started talking about the second sk I see posts from misder saying "i think bc is sk" and the like and I rage a bit inside.
This game was incredibly hard to play purely because both mafia and town didn't deserve to win. Had you not won jimbo I would have been incredibly angry as you played your role and position so well and didn't just idle your way to victory which could have worked as well.
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On January 24 2011 17:00 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +I planned it around the player list, I didn't see any big mafia hunters there, so I figured out that if I could neutralize the blue threat I should be good. Jimbo played an awesome game. Great pick with politician, and good use of it too. A few mistakes along the way, but overall strong performance. A bit too pro-town in the beginning, I think, which caused him to take too many hits from the mafia, which in turn prolonged the game since deaths occured less slowly. Haplo getting saved was unfortunate, as was the double roleblock on kita, though those were out of his control. The biggest mistake though, was the bumatlarge hit, which turned a likely victory into a drawn out game. I don't know if that was a miscalculation or a slipup, but hitting a townie on that night would've guaranteed a win unless more townies didn't show up to vote or got modkilled, especially since town would have to lynch CPR to have a chance.
That isn't bad and is probably the best way to win ^_^
I agree with most of your post, especially the part about CC. I mean really that role isn't so powerful because it depends on who dies. Even worse using it with your #1 pick is just asking for a meltdown once discovered which leads us to...
On January 24 2011 17:05 Barundar wrote:
Not sure if others agree, but i found the best argument for lynching jimbo as sk over bc was their method for fingering deconduo. When lsb flipped, the real sk must have realised that deconduo was a fake, and the first one to analyse deconduo and demand him lynched was jimbo.
The difference between jimbos and bc's argument against deconduo was what they tried to nail him on. Bc speculated that deconduo could be fake claiming sk, and through the thread became more certain of himself. Jimbo simply analysed. Arguing that deconduo was scum beceause he fake claimed sk would of course give away how he knew.
Actually LSB's flip didn't even matter. It was deconduo's claim that outted him and that led to all the other scum getting caught.
deconduo has the first pick in the draft and then claims he is an SK CopyCat.
???
First of all as I've told others - you would have to be really, really, really lost in the head to believe that a Serial Killer will ever CLAIM Serial Killer outright. If a Serial Killer has any interest in living, especially when they weren't even caught investigative wise they won't claim SK.
Secondly no SK, especially with the first pick, is going to take CC. That's just useless for them. They can pick any role they want and would pick CC? I mean that right there was an "I'm Scum and I'm lying about my claim" stance. He was outted by BC the very moment he made the claim.
@Fishball: I didn't give LSB or anyone their roles on purpose. It was all randomized and LSB just happened to get 1 of the SK spots.
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EPT
