TL Mafia 5 [Game Over] - Page 45
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
# I vote for the double lynch tomorrow | ||
semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
Though there was a detective who roleclaimed to me and we could have him potentially role-check on Rice. | ||
Bockit
Sydney2287 Posts
On March 21 2009 21:25 semioldguy wrote: @ Bockit I'd say Mandalor has a greater chance statistically to be a Miller than he has that chance based on behavioral analysis (meaning that I believe his actual chances of being Miller to be much less than my post of 18%). Just my opinion though. At this risk of sounding stupid, I think I'm missing something here, can you re-explain what you mean by this? In my post I was saying (I think..) that Mandalor has a smaller chance of being a miller showing up as a mafia to your detective rolecheck, than him being a mafia showing up as a mafia to your detective rolecheck. I was then saying I think the behaviour analysis by Ver and MBH is enough for me to discount this small chance (of him being a miller) and be willing to vote for mandalor on the blind logic of you having called him out and roleclaiming dt. | ||
Bockit
Sydney2287 Posts
On March 21 2009 21:26 semioldguy wrote: I need to use my cluecheck on a Day One clue Oh shit I forgot about that | ||
semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
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Bockit
Sydney2287 Posts
On March 21 2009 21:32 semioldguy wrote: We're saying the same thing... I also think that with the behavioral analysis it is enough to largely toss aside the small chance he is a Miller. Haha ok, sorry. | ||
Rice
United States1332 Posts
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Malongo
Chile3468 Posts
From the first post i tried to get small parts that looked like clues considering: -there should be refereces to all mafia -not necesarily all clues related to individuals. -Obviously there are more than 10 clues, what i selected were things that looked like clues + Show Spoiler + As night settled in the town of Liquidia all was silent. Except for the explosion in City Hall. The sheriff, Chuiu, ran out of his office across the street to see the building crumbling in on itself. He ran towards the building and stopped just at the steps when he spotted the mayor, Incognito, lying on the ground amongst the rubble. Chuiu helped Incognito to his feet and was briefed on the situation. A handful of individuals identifying themselves as part of the local mob family had destroyed City Hall in an attempt to kill Incognito. He got to the door just before the explosion and was caught in the shockwave. Chuiu took a few steps toward the building to see if he could find anyone in or around it. Then he spotted three running away from the back of the building. Chuiu ran after them and left Incognito alone. He finally caught up with them a few moments later as they were getting in a car. He noticed they weren't leaving right away, what could they be waiting for? It didn't matter, he made a quick call for backup and decided to catch them off guard before they had a chance to leave. Approaching with gun drawn he demanded they get out of their car. Two of them exited. They approached Chuiu slowly and he backed up to a safer distance keeping the gun aimed at them. When they stopped he lowered the gun slightly and told them to put their hands behind their backs and get on the ground, then he yelled at the third person to get out of the car. One of the mafia complied and began lowering down to the ground, Chuiu raised his gun at the other and yelled at him to do the same. But while he did so the mafia lowering himself sprinted toward Chuiu and with his hands still behind his head grabbed the gun and threw it to the side. He tackled Chuiu to the ground and then ran over to the gun and armed himself with it. The other mafia, now between Chuiu and the armed one, walked slowly up to Chuiu. He reached out his hand as if to help Chuiu up, Chuiu grabbed his hand with a puzzled look on his face and began to get up. But then the mafia pulled him close and stabbed him in the chest. They left Chuiu to bleed to death and got back into the car and drove to City Hall. Over at City Hall Incognito just realized something the mafia might have missed. He began sifting through the rubble thinking he could score something to help catch the mafia. What he didn't know was one stayed back to make sure he was dead. He was shoved forward while hunched over pulling some concrete away and smashed his head into a large chunk of debris. He turned himself around to face the man and knew that whatever could be found was lost. With one shot to the head Incognito's life was ended. As police began arriving one by one there were no witnesses or mafia to be found. Just the two bodies and the rubble where City Hall once stood. The town officials quickly set up a election to determine who would be the new Mayor and capable Sheriff to lead the town to safety from these dangerous criminals. Now for the second morning: -Again im selecting a lot more and not all this have to be clues but they are parts that *sound like clues to me. + Show Spoiler + A new theater had opened up in Liquidia and no one but a few who stumbled upon it knew. Those few would have the time of their lives. For within this theater wasn't a movie or a comedy or music, it was a drama. Once everyone was seated the doors were shut, bolted, and the lights dimmed. Everyone waited in anticipation for the show to start. They waited. Nothing happened. A couple started looking up towards the projector room and didn't even see a light. They got up and started to leave, one by one everyone followed and then a few people walked out of the shadows. The first person targeted was Camlito. He was walking toward one of the mafia asking for a refund. What he got was a punch to the face. Grabbing his eye in pain Camlito backed up and tried to get a good look at the person who struck him. It seemed like it was one of the theater attendants he saw on the way in but why would they hit him? He tried reasoning but another punch came instead, this time Camlito dodged and countered by shoving the man to the ground. Some articles fell from his pocket, torn ticket stubs, old popcorn, a dried up white flower; just trash he had picked up from the ground. He got up and more determined than ever tripped Camlito and grabbed him from the back of his head. He slammed Camlito into a chair several times. Camlito looked back and saw a glare in return and then his killer finished him off with a final crushing blow. During the fight three more had broken out. Scaramanga was down towards the bottom of the theater not really fighting but avoiding a man who was taunting him with a knife. He went from seat to isle to seat to stairs trying to avoid the man with the knife. When finally he saw there was nothing blocking the far door between him and his assailant he decided to try his luck and shove through the man. He successfully pushed his way through and ran towards the door, though once he opened it a small explosion triggered at several places and the walls came caving down on Scaramanga. Across from where Camlito had died Qatol was frozen still staring down a man dressed in black. He heard a clicking sound from the mans coat and was sure he was armed to the teeth, ready to shoot him any second. Well he inched his way back towards the seats while his would be killer stood a few rows up and waited. Once Qatol was close enough he decided to make a break for it, he ducked under the cover of the seats and started running towards Camlito's corpse; the area now vacant of any other mafia. He was halfway and didn't hear any gunshots so he looked up and saw the man jumping from seat to seat barely keeping his balance before he moved to the next one and slowly closing in. Qatol stood up and ran full speed now but it was too late, the man jumped down on him from behind and brought him to the ground. As they struggled Qatol saw a glint of metal and thinking it was a gun tried to push it away, but his hand wasn't pushing away something it was pushing in. The knife penetrated Qatols right hand and his killer was rocking it back and forth making the wound hurt more. Screaming in pain and losing his strength quickly Qatol had no chance of defending himself as the knife continued forth and penetrated his chest. But then there was one left. Ver had been fighting off someone pathetic at fighting and what looked like a biker full of snake tattoos, crosses, and other shit he couldn't make out. They had both armed themselves with knives but Ver was only afraid of the biker. He disarmed the other mafia and armed himself with the knife but the biker didn't attack yet. What Ver thought was a pathetic person came back after his knife. Ver slashed at him and he almost took a nasty gash to one of his arms. He went in again and caught Ver's arm just as he attacked again, this time he pried the knife from Ver's hand and tossed it to the side. The man then jumped down to the next row of seats and grabbed Ver's other arm, he held him there like some prisoner chained to a wall while his accomplice did all the nasty work. Ver's major arteries were stabbed into and they left him there to bleed out and die. Some themes that repeat over the 2 posts: -The three number. At first this made me think of 3 lions, but theres one more person: [r]tricode[/r], wich is quite more suspicious since his profile is empty (thus forcing the three reference). I havent read too much from him, but he voted BC and came up with this post On March 21 2009 08:16 Tricode wrote: this guy looks QUITE suspicious to me, im 80% sure hes mafia.Hey, isn't night suppose to be over by now? I would ask cob normally but he said something about not being online today much. Does anyone know when morning is suppose to happen? I'm kinda confused. -The one by one reference. Again i looked at the names and monoxide and ace came in, but also Rice is related. Its less obvious but the amount of leads to rice is increasing (yeah armed to the teeth and his profile pic). -Both posts have some sort of question marked: what could they be waiting for? why would they hit him? This can be related to some sort of inquisitor or philosoper im not sure about this or how to relate to a player -The reference to crumble crumbling in on itself walls came caving down on Scaramanga -The guy that gives a glare to camlito and the puzzled look from Chuiu -Reference to duck and to lower to spring foward. -The guy that cant fight and ties ver reminds me of the Dark Archon and could be MoC (this is not really related) Since all of them are equally posible and most im unable yet to find a better choice i think the best bet here is to go either Rice or Tricode. lol I just read the claim for sog. Ill keep my vote on mandalor However KEEP AN EYE ON RICE and TRICODE note how RICE he came to defend himself furiously after being pointed PEOPLE vote dobule lynch tomorrow. | ||
Mandalor
Germany2362 Posts
On this note, I bring to you all another suspect from the investigations of mrbabyhands and myself....Mandalor! (brackets + italics are my adding). The first part is true, the second is a blatant lie. Mandalor never contributed to the town when he was mafia, and furthermore his second statement was a mafia point. Using false evidence to make a point for the mafia...I wonder. Again, it's not a lie. I did warn the town to not elect a major that has a potential clue attached to him (it was Ghar, who was innocent but still that is an advice I would always give). Now that doesn't necessarily count as contribution for everyone, but it does for me. Then again, why would I even lie about it? There's tons of players in this game that also played the old game. This is Mandalor's history: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Game 2- Mafia. Tried to fake DT, Ace tricked him in a rolecheck test and died at first lynch. Game 3- Townie. This game he contributed quite a bit to the town with his own plan and actively debated suspects and ideas. Because of this, the mafia killed him off night 2. This is the only game where he actively contributed publically. Ace's game- Townie. Stayed silent but was active. At the end of game 3 (before Ace's game began) he said he would be lying low to avoid being killed off early again. He fit my pattern of a previous contributer trying to hide as an inactive while being mafia, and I killed him second lynch. Chuiu's previous aborted game- Medic. Just voted and tried to lay low so he wouldn't get killed. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'm not going to comment this now, but I'll use it later. 3 points against him in my own analyses: 1) He lied. His lie was trying to prove a mafia point. This point was to cast doubt on mrbabyhand's statement claiming that certain players were innocent because they were dissecting strategies. Mandalor wanted to show that mafia had contributed heavily to town strategy discussion. He just didn't realize that he couldn't use himself as an example. I did not lie. It's true I used it to cast doubt on mrbabyhand's analysis, because it's simply wrong concerning me. Mafia players have been running for major positions and contributed by doing (wrong) clue analysis or just giving general advice (like what I did). MrBabyHands completely ruled the people out that were running for major and contributed on the first day and I criticized that because some mafia players in the past have been quite loud from the first day on. 2) He is attacking mrbabyhand's analyses with mafia reasoning: casting doubt on valid statements while adding nothing new. I'm not sure what to say to this. What else am I supposed to do? His analysis is wrong and I pointed out its flaws. There's not much else I can do. 3) He no longer fears mafia death, a direct switch from his previous 2 games as a town role. Why would I not fear mafia death? Dying as a mafia player is worse than dying as a townie or a blue. Your life is more important. This is the part where my "history" comes into play. In the last 3 games or so I have always said I hate to die early. Now imagine this: You've been dying in the first few days in mafia games for like 5 consecutive games for whatever reasons. Now imagine you've gotten the mafia role. Would you come out and openly criticize the head-of-analysis MrBabyHands who is backed up by like 90% of all vets? Yeah, me neither. Thinking about it, mafia death could also mean getting killed by mafia. If you mean that, I was killed by the mafia because I contributed heavily and came up with a (pretty good imo, if I may say so myself) plan. While I criticized MrBabyHands to a certain extent, it was not enough to make me a primary target and now that you guys want to see me dead, I'm even less of a target for mafia. Notice how in all of his history, he was only mafia once and in that game he died immediately after staying silent until the last minute; the complete opposite of what he claimed. I suppose it's possible that he somehow forgot that he never did what he claimed as mafia (lol). Read that thread again. Once again, I was not silent. I did lay low after the major was elected, but I was rather loud before. Of course it's far more likely that he's lying because he's mafia trying to manipulate the town: after mrbabyhand's post asserting those people innocent he wants to make the town suspect those who were contributing to strategy discussion. The only reason I'd be questionable of my own logic is that it's such a huge and obvious blunder that a careful mafia shouldn't ever make. But I think his obvious motivations and the simple fact that mafia do slip up makes it a pretty convincing argument. And there's more. Never did I say that we need to make those suspect who do analysis and contribute. The only thing I said is that we should not completely rule out the possibility that some people who contribute might also be mafia. People who contribute are more likely to be innocent, but saying stuff like "Person A and B said something on day 1 and ran for major, they are innocent" is the wrong attitude. As shown by the game history, when a town role, he's switched his style to that of lying low to avoid being killed early. In Ace's and Chuiu's latest game he basically didn't say anything and just voted. In this game, however, he spoke out immediately and was not afraid to make himself a possible mafia target. Maybe he got sick of staying silent early? Maybe he saw something that he alone could correct? Actually, you're contradicting yourselves here. MrBabyhands criticized that I was silent until he posted "test 1" and you're criticizing that I "spoke out immediately" (which is not true btw). So, no matter what I did, one of you would criticize it. However, I think it's because he saw something that was true, and pointed out something bad for the mafia (mrbabyhand's statement of how the mafia weren't participating in strategy discussion). This first came to my attention because Mandalor now is speaking without fear of death. That fear of mafia death made him stay absolutely silent the previous 2 games (up until he was to be lynched). Now he's speaking freely. I wonder if he's doing this because he doesn't fear the mafia anymore hmm. This is something I discussed in pms with you. I don't know why you're bringing that up once again when you were wrong the last time. I was inactive in Ace's game, because I regretted signing up in the first place. The game was packed with roles, different mafia families and whatnot that made me care less about the game. Chuiu's last game only lasted a day, I had nothing to contribute. ------------------------ So much about Ver's analysis. Now there's one more thing I want to say: Did you notice who was killed today? First of all, Scaramanga. Yesterday, it was literally me and Scaramanga who were sure to be killed and now he's dead. If I was mafia, would I like to target the guy that might save for me for another day? And then, Ver. He was, together with MrBabyHands, the most important player who wanted to see me dead. Killing him makes his analysis look stronger and I wouldn't want that. People even started to bandwagon a vote on me because the guy that criticized me is now dead until Ace stopped them. I could have never forseen that Ace would do that. ----------------------- Now that SoG found out that I'm a miller this post is most likely to be worthless. I hate you, Chuiu. It's in town's best interest to kill me even though I'm not mafia, because you guys will never be able to find out if I'm miller or mafia any other way. | ||
Rice
United States1332 Posts
However KEEP AN EYE ON RICE and TRICODE note how RICE he came to defend himself furiously after being pointed PEOPLE vote dobule lynch tomorrow. what are people who get attacked supposed to do? sit by and watch themselves get killed? | ||
Chuiu
3470 Posts
On March 21 2009 20:01 semioldguy wrote: If I vote for a double lynch tomorrow does it count as four votes for that too? Yes. | ||
RaGe
Belgium9942 Posts
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Bockit
Sydney2287 Posts
On March 21 2009 23:27 RaGe wrote: Hmm, I don't agree with a double lynch. The outcome of Mandalor's lynch will give us important information, and the case against Rice and Tricode seems pretty weak to me. Double lynch isn't for tonight, it's for tomorrow night. | ||
Teejing
Germany1360 Posts
#I vote for double lynch tomorrow i go check clues and reveal 2-3 mafia | ||
rredtooth
5458 Posts
On to the topic of Rice. The reason why I was so confident in Rice following my clue analysis was not only because an entire paragraph basically matched with his profile picture (especially the whole "armed to the teeth thing"). I proposed that Rice was mafia because I had suspicions about him all along. Let's reference an old post I made talking about RoL's inactivity: On March 21 2009 06:39 redtooth wrote: This is the reason why I was able to build a case so quickly (within an hour of Chuiu's day post I think). It was because I was watching him the whole time. Now he goes from almost absolute inactivity to taking sarcastic potshots at our case. He can't build an argument defending himself because there is nothing to build it with. I think that one paragraph referencing Qatol's killer is enough to prove his guilt (we've had weaker cases before).You may be wondering what use this observation has. To answer this question honestly: I'm not really sure. Just popped in my mind and thought someone might interpret it a bit better. It may mean that mafia are keeping some people intentionally quiet as to keep a low profile. I'm sure most of the mafia have popped up by now so we should keep an eye out for the people who are acting significantly quieter than expected (Scaramanga is in my sights). Regardless, it would be interesting to see who made their genuine first post AFTER Chuiu's Night Post. People like Rice, Night[Mare, blue_arrow, and Camlito come to mind. Anybody up for making an official list? Now here's the plan. I suggest we DON'T lynch nor do a vigilante hit on Rice right now. We will most likely end up lynching mandalor. If he turns up red then the mafia killpower drops to 5 (because of the 8 mafia remaining). Doing a vigilante in the night on Rice would just drop the remaining number of mafia to 7, not affecting the killpower. However, if mandalor flips green (or whatever the color millers are) then I propose that a vigilante take the risk and take out Rice. This is because there is a good chance Rice is red and that will reduce the killpower of mafia to 5. In the case mandalor does flip red, we should just use a DT check on Rice just to make sure we don't waste any lynches or vigilante hits. Also, why the hell did malongo edit out that huge post? Something is fishy in that post (love the staff powers btw). | ||
rredtooth
5458 Posts
##I vote for double lynch tomorrow. Man mandalor must feel like crap if he is the miller. Unfortunately I don't think it's a risk we are willing to take. TO CHUIU: Will the miller reveal his role after death? | ||
dreamflower
United States312 Posts
More rational reaction: Throwing my own two cents into the clue analysis, even though I still wouldn't say the clues so far have been conclusive or adequate justification on their own for lynching someone. They're still vague enough that they can point to several different people at the same time. I've isolated the sentences that seem like clues from each paragraph, because I don't want this post to get longer than it already will be. On March 21 2009 13:33 Chuiu wrote: It seemed like it was one of the theater attendants he saw on the way in but why would they hit him? Some articles fell from his pocket, torn ticket stubs, old popcorn, a dried up white flower; just trash he had picked up from the ground. These are the two clues I see from Camlito's kill and incidentally the two clues that I think actually argue against his killer being bumatlarge, though I noticed the possible connection there too. Though I admit my acquaintance with bums and homeless people has been extremely limited, I haven't met any who could pass, even under careless scrutiny, as theater attendants. I see this more as the killer being in disguise, possibly having dressed himself as a theater attendant or usher to avoid suspicion and take Camlito by surprise. Perhaps he favors using the element of surprise, rather than overtly threatening his victims. In addition, the stuff that falls from his pocket is summarized as "trash." While homeless people do pick up trash, I imagine they pick up trash they can use, such as old blankets, uneaten food or things they could use to build a shelter, not such useless articles as torn ticket stubs, old popcorn or dried-up flowers. This guy seems more like he's collecting stuff, possibly either from places he's been or as memorabilia from the kill (like those serial killers who like to have reminders of their victims). I have two total reaches in mind for this, but I'll have to think more about how plausible they really are. I should thank you guys for not pointing to me with the dried-flower clue, by the way. After all, the flower in my profile is blue and not dried, and I can assure you I don't pick up trash on the ground. During the fight three more had broken out. Scaramanga was down towards the bottom of the theater not really fighting but avoiding a man who was taunting him with a knife. He successfully pushed his way through and ran towards the door, though once he opened it a small explosion triggered at several places and the walls came caving down on Scaramanga. The taunting seems possibly like a clue, though many people have trash talk in their profiles, so it's not much to go on. The second statement could possibly link up with the explosion that hit City Hall the first day, causing the building to collapse in on itself as well. I agree that it points to someone who likes explosives and bombs, as well as destroying buildings to trap people and kill them. He heard a clicking sound from the mans coat and was sure he was armed to the teeth, ready to shoot him any second. He was halfway and didn't hear any gunshots so he looked up and saw the man jumping from seat to seat barely keeping his balance before he moved to the next one and slowly closing in. As they struggled Qatol saw a glint of metal and thinking it was a gun tried to push it away, but his hand wasn't pushing away something it was pushing in. The knife penetrated Qatols right hand and his killer was rocking it back and forth making the wound hurt more. Screaming in pain and losing his strength quickly Qatol had no chance of defending himself as the knife continued forth and penetrated his chest. Poor Qatol! He definitely seemed to have died to a sadist, as his killer doesn't immediately go for the kill at the end but literally twists the knife to make the wound hurt more. He also seems to be carrying a lot of knives or weapons, as shown when Qatol reaches toward the man and finds a knife sticking out. The "armed to the teeth" statement supports this, and I admit the confluence of teeth and knives does implicate Rice. What do you expect, with a profile picture of gangsta vampires with a knife? I think the clicking in the first sentence is significant too. What would cause a man to make a clicking noise, if he wasn't cocking a gun? The post emphasizes that there were no shots fired, and thus presumably no gun. It might be teeth clicking or something else metallic about him. Ver had been fighting off someone pathetic at fighting and what looked like a biker full of snake tattoos, crosses, and other shit he couldn't make out. The man then jumped down to the next row of seats and grabbed Ver's other arm, he held him there like some prisoner chained to a wall while his accomplice did all the nasty work. The clues here would be the man who looks pathetic at fighting but disarms Ver and holds him like a prisoner chained to the wall. I have another highly speculative reach here, based on the pathetic-at-fighting part and possibly the reference to prisons or captivity. The biker covered with tattoos and crosses is definitely a clue too, but I'm having trouble linking it to anyone right now. I'm assuming Ver surmised he was a biker from the tattoos, rather than "the biker" being a conclusive identity. For all I know, the mention of being covered in tattoos could just point to one of those people whose profiles are full of random stuff or pictures, thus the mention of "other shit he couldn't make out." | ||
dreamflower
United States312 Posts
I vote to lynch Mandalor. I won't vote for the double lynch yet because I'd like to know who else we'd be lynching, first. | ||
mikeymoo
Canada7170 Posts
##I vote to lynch Mandalor ##I vote to use Double Lynch for tomorrow If Mandalor flips red, SoG is pretty much in the clear. Rice is becoming increasingly suspicious, and I believe after night 2 we will be able to determine whether there are enough clues that point in his direction. | ||
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