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United States7488 Posts
A few things....
(1) I am confident Mandalor is mafia because I am a Detective and I checked that shit out. He is also not the Godfather (unless he chose to appear as Mafia which seems very unlikely).
(2) Technically I am not 100% that he is Mafia, but I am 100% sure that he looks red to me. There are 3 Millers still, and 8 non-Godfather mafia members remaining. So statistically it's an 8 out of 11 or a 72.727% chance that he is Mafia, with the other portion being that he is a Miller.
(3) I know Detectives are not supposed to use a role check on day one. So before someone brings that up let me explain. + Show Spoiler [explanation] +When i read the rules the first time I do remember reading that the only Night One abilities could be Medics and Clue checks. When I went back to re-read the rules, I didn't see that clause and assumed that the Day One rule for Detectives must have been from another game that I read, had previously played in or am currently playing in.
So I PM'ed Chuiu asking, and since he didn't come up with all these rules himself he too forgot that clause. We noticed the mistake shortly after, but knowledge can't be undone. So we modified my ability to compensate some for the error. I won't get a role check tonight, and for all purposes the game will pretend that I used my role check tonight instead. So I won't be able to consecutively role check on nights three and four, since I would have used this one tonight and that would be impossible. Tonight I get a clue check from Day One Clues.
In my opinion our mistake actually weakens my abilities over the first couple days. I was ready to go for Mandalor before I role checked him, so if I was unable to do that it is likely I would have gone for him anyway and it seems likely that he could have been lynched today regardless of any additional info (of course I could just say this and there is no proof of that here, though there are a few others that were fully aware of my suspicions toward him). So basically my first two Nights of abilities are both based off of Day One information alone, whereas I would have had an additional Day of information for my Role-check and now I only get one role check over the next three Days.
Chuiu should not confirm whether this is true or not in my opinion, because if he confirms it to be true or false it would basically 100% confirm my innocence/guilt. He is a moderator (or outsider) and should not be making posts to influence the game in a way that 100% determines a player's role. Choose for yourselves whether you believe my story or if you think it's fabricated. I knew someone would inquire about it though so I thought I should include it here.
I think that covers everything, but if I missed something ask and I'll let you know.
(4) Another Detective Role-Claimed to me during the night. Though I personally think this was very unwise for obvious reasons, he told me that the shockwave clue did not point to Pika Chu. This does not necessarily confirm his innocence. There was the whole other segment that was looked at that could have been a clue for Pika Chu. The Detective might not be a Detective at all and if Pika Chu is ever lynched or evidence is proved on him later in the game that "Detective" could potentially be another caught Mafia member. At that point it would be likely that I reveal that player, obviously I won't reveal him now though, but will continue to act as his mouth.
(5) I feel it is relatively safe for me to role claim at this point. There are two Bodyguards still left which will keep the Mafia from being able to get me. I can now use my Detective abilities at the town's requests if I deem them to be the best intentions and uses of the ability. It doesn't really benefit the Mafia to know what my role is a whole lot; I think it benefits the town much more as it gives the town a whole lot more information and knowledge which the Mafia won't necessarily benefit from. Also when the Bodyguards do all expire, Mafia would likely choose me as a target at that point anyway to get rid of the Mayor regardless of whether or not I had a role.
(6) Bodyguards it is imperative that you keep yourselves secret, even and especially from me (and BC)
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Northern Ireland22203 Posts
We've really got nothing else to go on so far  The only other thing I have is..
Some articles fell from his pocket, torn ticket stubs, old popcorn, a dried up white flower; just trash he had picked up from the ground
are all pretty old things. Of course, that points to SoG, so I have big doubts.
Oh, and also It seemed like it was one of the theater attendants he saw on the way in but why would they hit him?
The only real link I can find to theatre is Bockit's rank icon. Nothing solid at all to go on, but I'm still analysing
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United States7488 Posts
I would take some time/effort to look for potential clues from Day Two... but it's nearly 5am here and I'm tired. I'm sleeping and I'll return tomorrow (which means that I'll probably be online another 30 minutes before actually going off to sleep :p).
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Some articles fell from his pocket, torn ticket stubs, old popcorn, a dried up white flower; just trash he had picked up from the ground. He got up and ...grabbed him from the back of his head. He slammed Camlito into a chair several times. ...finished him off with a final crushing blow.
i think this is the biggest clue right here, gonna look into this one more
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On March 21 2009 20:50 malongo wrote:
semioldguy, do your magic on this plz
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Northern Ireland22203 Posts
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Well I lost my post about mandalor but basically it boils down to this:
1. MrBabyHands said mafia was being inactive and then Mandalor posted
-That could just be because he first saw the thread at that point for whatever reason. There are players that haven't even posted yet, I think. Ver didn't post until after this and he flipped innocent. (Not to mention that Ver's other target was Scaramanga, who flipped innocent).
2. Mandalor questioned the list after MrBabyHands praised me for questioning the list
-I do think it is a bit odd that mandalor picked this issue up after it had died down a bit although it was only a page or two back in a timespan heavy with activity. I don't get why MrBabyHands thinks that mafia is offline during night and online during day - that makes no sense to me.
3. Mandalor defended a quality of the mafia
-Mandalor only said that MrBabyHands took mafia as stupid because MBH said mafia was inactive and would stay back and not help town or would try to lead town into bad plans - they would never help construct good plans. Well, in Ace's Mafia World I definitely put honest thinking and input into the plans of the town even though I was mafia. Prior to night 1, I voted for my godfather but damn near everything else I did, I did as if I was a highly energetic townspersyn. I knocked holes into plans where I saw them, I suggested things, etc. Some of this was because I thought I had a good shot at getting my Godfather elected mayor but alot of it was just that a good mafia will try to compartmentalize their thinking. They will have a What Would a Townie Do? bracelet on their wrist and not be constantly acting for the mafia's interest but instead will be an honest to goodness townie except for the few key subtle moments where they turn the tide of the game. I don't think that every candidate can be innocent and most were on MBH's list. I'm even beginning to become suspicious of some of the people who voted for me. My suspicion of Pika Chu looks a little crazy in retrospect now that I've settled down into the game a bit and I wonder if some mafia began to vote for me because they think I suck (no offense to those innocents that voted for me).
Mandalor posted this in response to MBH's first post accusing him as mafia for sure, by name:
"In my experience the players who stir the most shit, going on a blind witchhunt are most likely to be mafia. How is that for behavioral analysis?
Your behavioral analysis is based purely on thinking anyone who criticizes you or posted after the first day has to be mafia. That is hilarious and I hope everyone can see that, I haven't read the replies to this, yet."
I remember reading this and thinking it seems like a pretty natural response for a townie and I still kinda feel that way. Although I criticized MBH and he thinks I'm innocent so it's wrong but I could still see an innocent townie getting pissed off and saying that.
On to Ver's accusatory post...
At this point I see that semioldguy is role claiming DT and so I'm going to stop doing all the work digging through this.
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United States7488 Posts
On March 21 2009 14:15 Ace wrote:
ah wow. BC can you explain why you put me in jail?
Seems to me like you even suggested it...
On March 19 2009 22:43 Ace wrote:
Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you - The Plan.
...
Camlito
Qatol
BloodyC0bbler
Ver
Caller
Bockit
iNfuNdiBuLuM
Ace (<~~ Hey look you're on this list!)
MrBabyHands
Versatile
Scaramanga
JL13
That's a list of twelve potential targets, for fun let's call them the The Zodiac Brave.
...
Also, we have to decide who the Sheriff should lock up for the night. It has to be one of these 12. No matter what we try to do, the medics can't protect everyone and the Mafia will stack kills even with RoL dead to take out some vets. Whoever we lock up out of the vets, has to be plain green Towny. Sure they might have to role claim but we can't afford to lock up any critical blue roles on Night 1.
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Belgium9944 Posts
wow nice work Pyrrhuloxia. too bad semioldguy already roleclaimed DT haha
## I vote to lynch Mandalor
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United States7488 Posts
This was the post before edit (it was actually up for a bit before he took it down)...
On March 21 2009 20:50 malongo wrote:
Ok here i go first of all the 1 morning post, i bolded the parts i consider could be clues
-I tried to select small parts
-I tried to get as much info as i could, since i expected here to be clues to all mafia (at least subtle ones).
As night settled in the town of Liquidia all was silent. Except for the explosion in City Hall. The sheriff, Chuiu, ran out of his office across the street to see the building crumbling in on itself. He ran towards the building and stopped just at the steps when he spotted the mayor, Incognito, lying on the ground amongst the rubble. Chuiu helped Incognito to his feet and was briefed on the situation. A handful of individuals identifying themselves as part of the local mob family had destroyed City Hall in an attempt to kill Incognito. He got to the door just before the explosion and was caught in the shockwave. Chuiu took a few steps toward the building to see if he could find anyone in or around it. Then he spotted three running away from the back of the building. Chuiu ran after them and left Incognito alone.
He finally caught up with them a few moments later as they were getting in a car. He noticed they weren't leaving right away, what could they be waiting for? It didn't matter, he made a quick call for backup and decided to catch them off guard before they had a chance to leave. Approaching with gun drawn he demanded they get out of their car. Two of them exited. They approached Chuiu slowly and he backed up to a safer distance keeping the gun aimed at them. When they stopped he lowered the gun slightly and told them to put their hands behind their backs and get on the ground, then he yelled at the third person to get out of the car. One of the mafia complied and began lowering down to the ground, Chuiu raised his gun at the other and yelled at him to do the same. But while he did so the mafia lowering himself sprinted toward Chuiu and with his hands still behind his head grabbed the gun and threw it to the side. He tackled Chuiu to the ground and then ran over to the gun and armed himself with it. The other mafia, now between Chuiu and the armed one, walked slowly up to Chuiu. He reached out his hand as if to help Chuiu up, Chuiu grabbed his hand with a puzzled look on his face and began to get up. But then the mafia pulled him close and stabbed him in the chest. They left Chuiu to bleed to death and got back into the car and drove to City Hall.
Over at City Hall Incognito just realized something the mafia might have missed. He began sifting through the rubble thinking he could score something to help catch the mafia. What he didn't know was one stayed back to make sure he was dead. He was shoved forward while hunched over pulling some concrete away and smashed his head into a large chunk of debris. He turned himself around to face the man and knew that whatever could be found was lost. With one shot to the head Incognito's life was ended.
As police began arriving one by one there were no witnesses or mafia to be found. Just the two bodies and the rubble where City Hall once stood. The town officials quickly set up a election to determine who would be the new Mayor and capable Sheriff to lead the town to safety from these dangerous criminals.
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On March 21 2009 19:56 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
semioldguy's confidence tells me there may be something against mandalor that he can't reveal.
Lol, I called it.
Explanation having been given, #I vote to lynch Mandalor.
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Ugh I gtg to bed. Will be back in... I dunno... 10 hours or so. My beloved Zags are playing at 5:00 PST tomorrow so I won't be doing much mafia until that game is over but I'll probably try to get caught up before and after that.
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United States7488 Posts
Of course just because we have Mandalor doesn't mean we should stop doing other things (not that I'm accusing anyone of this, just want to make sure it doesn't happen).
We should still decide if we want to double lynch tomorrow.
Also all this time we are going to be saving discussing a lynch target can now be used for other areas like finding potential clues or where to go looking for the next red after Mandalor.
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Sydney2287 Posts
Well at this point, I'm all for voting for mandalor.
Possibilities that I can see:
1)SoG is mafia
a)Mandalor is mafia and he's sacrificing a likely-to-be-killed mafia member to gain our trust
b)Mandalor is town aligned and I can't explain why this scenario would ever happen given the current state of things (SoG elected office etc)
2)SoG is a detective
a)Mandalor is mafia
b)Mandalor is a miller
3)SoG is a townie
So 1b) and 3) are stupid but there for the sake of completion.
Leaving: 1a) 2a) and 2b)
1a) and 2a) get us a mafia kill. 2b) gets us not much.
Statistics put put the chance of him being a miller reasonably low. Also we have the behavioural analysis of Ver/MBH.
Thus:
I vote for Mandalor
I vote for a double lynch tomorrow
I do this because we already have rice lined up and we'll have more clues to work with (we've barely scraped the surface of Day 2 clues as it is...) so it's very likely we'll have 2 prime suspects. That's leaving alone out other behavioural analysis that gets done.
EDIT: BBCode >_>
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United States7488 Posts
##I vote for double lynch tomorrow
With the reasoning that we have so much time left in this day to start planning it.
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United States7488 Posts
@ Bockit
I'd say Mandalor has a greater chance statistically to be a Miller than he has that chance based on behavioral analysis (meaning that I believe his actual chances of being Miller to be much less than my post of 18%). Just my opinion though.
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Sydney2287 Posts
On March 21 2009 21:18 semioldguy wrote:
Of course just because we have Mandalor doesn't mean we should stop doing other things (not that I'm accusing anyone of this, just want to make sure it doesn't happen).
We should still decide if we want to double lynch tomorrow.
Also all this time we are going to be saving discussing a lynch target can now be used for other areas like finding potential clues or where to go looking for the next red after Mandalor.
I'm for the double lynch, as explained in my prior post. I also think our first target should be rice. He has tried the copout post "my generic picture has always caused these kind of false clue accusations", however due to the fact that the paragraph of clues pretty much describes his picture with all the different clues in it, I'm inclined to disagree with the 'generic' argument. However I propose that to prove this, we use SoGs cluecheck on one of the clues in the paragraph of clues, to see if it links to rice
+ Show Spoiler [Redtooth's post in case people m…] +On March 21 2009 15:04 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2009 13:33 Chuiu wrote:
Across from where Camlito had died Qatol was frozen still staring down a man dressed in black. He heard a clicking sound from the mans coat and was sure he was armed to the teeth, ready to shoot him any second. Well he inched his way back towards the seats while his would be killer stood a few rows up and waited. Once Qatol was close enough he decided to make a break for it, he ducked under the cover of the seats and started running towards Camlito's corpse; the area now vacant of any other mafia. He was halfway and didn't hear any gunshots so he looked up and saw the man jumping from seat to seat barely keeping his balance before he moved to the next one and slowly closing in. Qatol stood up and ran full speed now but it was too late, the man jumped down on him from behind and brought him to the ground. As they struggled Qatol saw a glint of metal and thinking it was a gun tried to push it away, but his hand wasn't pushing away something it was pushing in. The knife penetrated Qatols right hand and his killer was rocking it back and forth making the wound hurt more. Screaming in pain and losing his strength quickly Qatol had no chance of defending himself as the knife continued forth and penetrated his chest.
Haha too easy. Rice's profile picture has a few gangsters showing off their thugness to the crowd. If you look closely, many of the descriptions fit perfectly with the picture. All of them are dressed in black, the man in the back has a coat, and the center man is holding a knife near his eye. Now these are generic clues but the key giveaway is "armed to the teeth". If you are so armed then why would you waste your time with a knife? Because you are literally armed to the teeth. Look at the man on the right. He has silverish fangs that could easily be considered weapons. + Show Spoiler [Rice's Profile Picture] +Sucks to be you.edited with hyperlink and red coloring. i love to make an impact in each of my posts. once again, no content change.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/40422.jpg?1235334190)
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