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bochs
United States75 Posts
Looking at the ELO ranking, the fact that Flash is still #2, and Effort is still #6, tells me that the decay factor should be tuned a bit more aggressively. These two haven't been active for quite a while (almost an eternity in such a competitive scene, where active players are improving by the day), and shouldn't deserve such a high spot anymore. For instance, can we say that Flash in his current form is better than Light? I wonder what the ELO ranking will look like after the tune up. | ||
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RowdierBob
Australia12794 Posts
I'm not sure if this is something you'd be inclined to do, but I'd be really curious to see the data for games when they hit the ro8 onwards (so r08, ro 4, finals). It feels like watching the games there are a lot of 'mid' P players who do well each season but never really threaten to win an ASL. There seems to be a big drop off in Protoss play at the elite level, but I wonder if the data confirms it. | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands463 Posts
On November 12 2024 03:30 TMNT wrote: And for this point don't expect to throw in a number of red herrings and win the argument. What new players lol? Everyone knows it's the same 30 guys or something who have been playing each other since Remastered. There's also option 4 which is called sponbbang/eloboard but I see you just pretend they didn't exist. But let's go with option 3 which I never disagreed with in the first place, but you can either process it in the most basic way (like op did) or you can refine it like I did. Like in terms of players pool, what's better than having the same numbers of players for each race for the comparison of win rate? Whether it's top 5/10/20 doesn't matter. The important thing is it's a better method than having 5 players for one race and 10 for the other. If you can't refute that you're just a troll. Also, for a guy who keeps trying to say it's only Soulkey that is doing good as Zerg recently (it's true), it's clear you acknowledge that he makes it lopsided for Zerg. But when another person use the same argument but for the whole lineup of a race, oh suddenly it becomes invalid lololol. In fact that's a common theme for you in this forum, being a hypocrite and lacking of self-awareness. Like you literally started the conversation with a patronizing tone, aiming at the "Protoss whiners", but then when I presented you with a post of pure analysis and no personal offence, you retaliated like a cunt. Actually, there are some "newish" players that rose up in the remastered era. Rain and Soulkey rose up super early in the current Era so you can consider them "old" players. But JyJ took until 2018/2019 to be a player recognized by the other pros as an equal. and he broke through as a top terran in 2022/2023. Royal was recognized as a top terran all the way back in 2020 when he started performing really well in spons and then in proleagues. But before then he was considered to be on a tier below the rest. Barracks likewise was also on that tier until 2021/2022 when he started to set himself apart as the next potential breakthrough terran. Speed literally had his breakthrough just this year and performs as well as a top 5-8 terran. Biggest breakthrough story is Soma who suddenly broke through with Castermuse Starleague season 1 if I recall correctly. that was may 2019. That same year he got 4th in KSL. Beside them though we have not seen actually new players breakthroigh into the top level. We did see new players break into the "joker tier" below King tier. (king tier usually reserved for round of 16 talent). We have only seen already top players shift around a bit and have their respective moment to shine in a meta or multiple metas. | ||
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TMNT
2226 Posts
On November 12 2024 20:42 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote: Actually, there are some "newish" players that rose up in the remastered era. Rain and Soulkey rose up super early in the current Era so you can consider them "old" players. But JyJ took until 2018/2019 to be a player recognized by the other pros as an equal. and he broke through as a top terran in 2022/2023. Royal was recognized as a top terran all the way back in 2020 when he started performing really well in spons and then in proleagues. But before then he was considered to be on a tier below the rest. Barracks likewise was also on that tier until 2021/2022 when he started to set himself apart as the next potential breakthrough terran. Speed literally had his breakthrough just this year and performs as well as a top 5-8 terran. Biggest breakthrough story is Soma who suddenly broke through with Castermuse Starleague season 1 if I recall correctly. that was may 2019. That same year he got 4th in KSL. Beside them though we have not seen actually new players breakthroigh into the top level. We did see new players break into the "joker tier" below King tier. (king tier usually reserved for round of 16 talent). We have only seen already top players shift around a bit and have their respective moment to shine in a meta or multiple metas. Yeah but what you're talking about is the topic of another conversation. All those players you mentioned are progamers with a license who had been training in teamhouses for years (before 2010) in the Kespa days. I think even Soma was in a team but didn't get his license? They were in their team's lineups for Proleague. Barracks was even in OSL once. JYJ and Speed played in OSL/MSL qualifiers but didn't get through. They played in the Sonic SL era. They belong to the pool of 30 or so players in the Remastered era as I mentioned. What changed during the period 2018-2022 is they improved their level. In that sense there's little difference between those guys and the likes of Snow/Mini (who achieved just a bit more in OSL/MSL days). What the other guy implied is the new players who literally just start to pick a race and play the game. Tbh dude knows there is no "new" player, he just wanted to put out a hypothetical example to distract from the main argument. It's also funny that he mentioned standardizing factor. Well surely to assess balance at the top of the game through win rate, you need a pool of equal number of players in each race? For example surely if you judge Protoss balance by using only a pool of the 6 Dragons against the entire players pool of T and Z then the Protoss race would look absurdly imba lol. | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands463 Posts
On November 12 2024 21:46 TMNT wrote: Yeah but what you're talking about is the topic of another conversation. All those players you mentioned are progamers with a license who had been training in teamhouses for years (before 2010) in the Kespa days. I think even Soma was in a team but didn't get his license? They were in their team's lineups for Proleague. Barracks was even in OSL once. JYJ and Speed played in OSL/MSL qualifiers but didn't get through. They played in the Sonic SL era. They belong to the pool of 30 or so players in the Remastered era as I mentioned. What changed during the period 2018-2022 is they improved their level. In that sense there's little difference between those guys and the likes of Snow/Mini (who achieved just a bit more in OSL/MSL days). What the other guy implied is the new players who literally just start to pick a race and play the game. Tbh dude knows there is no "new" player, he just wanted to put out a hypothetical example to distract from the main argument. It's also funny that he mentioned standardizing factor. Well surely to assess balance at the top of the game through win rate, you need a pool of equal number of players in each race? For example surely if you judge Protoss balance by using only a pool of the 6 Dragons against the entire players pool of T and Z then the Protoss race would look absurdly imba lol. Soma had a license but no team. Only other player who had some sort of success without pro-team experience is Brain. He got a license on both terran and protoss but didn't get onto a team. Currently all the active unlicensed but considered pro players are Joker tier. And I agree. The argumentation made by cheese looks logical superficially but is full of holes and fallacies when you look closer to the point where there's not much left to scrape for value. Protoss is not imba. Protoss has a few very strong players concentrated at the top tier, then nothing in the high tier, and then a lot of players in the middle tier section. Zerg has the same distribution. A BUNCH of top tier zergs, then no high tier, and then a few mid tier, and then a bunch of low tier. Terran has a much more gradual/even distribution of Top, High, Mid and Low tier players compared to the others. But this also affects the winrates. And that's purely the sample size of players being relatively small where outliers affects statistics much more. If we had the same number of pros as in the Kespa era we'd see probably a better distribution amongst the tiers. In small sample sizes outliers can skew the numbers. You can look at as many matches played between the players and get some useful data out of it. But if most of those matches happened between unequally skilled players your data will still be skewed by the outliers. | ||
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JackyVSO
Denmark85 Posts
On November 12 2024 05:44 bochs wrote: Amazing analysis, and thanks for sharing! Looking at the ELO ranking, the fact that Flash is still #2, and Effort is still #6, tells me that the decay factor should be tuned a bit more aggressively. These two haven't been active for quite a while (almost an eternity in such a competitive scene, where active players are improving by the day), and shouldn't deserve such a high spot anymore. For instance, can we say that Flash in his current form is better than Light? I wonder what the ELO ranking will look like after the tune up. I agree it might be sensible to introduce some kind of decay. There's none at all as it stands now. | ||
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JackyVSO
Denmark85 Posts
On November 11 2024 05:27 Uldridge wrote: About seeding: you claim it having an advantage, but did you take into account the player' overall strength? I.e. If a player can consistently get into ro8, with seeding (or is more likely), is he also a stronger player on average, or not? You're absolutely right to point out this problem. I've tried to make sure the comparison is not too unfair by only including players who have participated in at least one season as a seeded player. However, this isn't really good enough, as players who consistently get seeded will make up a larger part of the seeded results in the comparison, whereas players who consistently qualify but have only been seeded once or twice will make up most of the non-seeded results. What I should really do is only compare individual players' results as seeded vs non-seeded, and then take the average of those. | ||
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JackyVSO
Denmark85 Posts
On November 12 2024 08:21 RowdierBob wrote: This is great, Jacky, thanks for your work on it. I'm not sure if this is something you'd be inclined to do, but I'd be really curious to see the data for games when they hit the ro8 onwards (so r08, ro 4, finals). It feels like watching the games there are a lot of 'mid' P players who do well each season but never really threaten to win an ASL. There seems to be a big drop off in Protoss play at the elite level, but I wonder if the data confirms it. Are there any particular figures you'd like to see for only Ro.8 and onwards? | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands463 Posts
Also, if a best of set is super close in each game but only one of the players gets any wins, you get a dishonest contribution to the data. The data will see a 4-0. But in reality all 4 games were super close and could've gone either way. This is a problem that occurs in small sample sizes with two evenly skilled players. You can see it with Ultimate Battle specifically because those are best of 9. Sometimes one player starts with 3 wins, but then loses 5 games out of the next 6. Based off of the first 3 you could conclude that player absolutely dominated. But based off of the next 6 games you can conclude it was the other who dominated. But when looking at each game by itself you can conclude something entirely different. | ||
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Ideas
United States8035 Posts
I think the biggest problem with affecting PvZ still is the Bo7 format in the Ro8 onward. Protoss can do much better in Bo1s and Bo3s, but once you get to a series the Zerg have so many more options for mind-games and cheese than the protoss has. A player like Soulkey can really abuse that. edit - would love to see stats for each MU based on series length: Bo3, Bo5, Bo7. My prediction is that for TvZ and TvP it gets more balanced the longer the series, but for ZvP it gets more IMBA. | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands463 Posts
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TMNT
2226 Posts
On November 14 2024 00:41 Ideas wrote: edit - would love to see stats for each MU based on series length: Bo3, Bo5, Bo7. My prediction is that for TvZ and TvP it gets more balanced the longer the series, but for ZvP it gets more IMBA. Actually there are not a lot of Bo7's ever played in ASL. They only introduced it from season 11 and only from the semifinals except for this season. For example there're only 8 Bo7 PvZ series in ASL and the score is 4-4, and many would find it surprising that Protoss is leading 22-20 in map score, of which Mini (16 wins) and Soulkey (12 wins) combined are responsible for 66% of the maps themselves. It's not useful data at all if we want to talk about balance because ultimately it comes down to a few players and their form on those specific days. And as RJB mentioned above, a 4-0 score in ASL may not suggest the dominance of the winner or the imba of the matchup like we would intuitively think. Simply because of the sample size and the flow of a BoX series in tournament. For example, Mini slapped Queen 4-1 in consecutive seasons, giving the impression of Queen being his bitch but if you check his overall win rate of him vs Queen right at the times he slapped Queen in ASL, it's just close to 50%. Similarly Soulkey just slapped Snow 4-0 this season but online overall they are more like 60/40 or something. | ||
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RowdierBob
Australia12794 Posts
On November 13 2024 05:55 JackyVSO wrote: Are there any particular figures you'd like to see for only Ro.8 and onwards? Just some general balance stats. Just a hunch that P will be a whole lot worse from ro8 onwards compared to the overall stats. | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands463 Posts
On November 13 2024 05:55 JackyVSO wrote: Are there any particular figures you'd like to see for only Ro.8 and onwards? Kcm and ultimate battle stats! | ||
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TMNT
2226 Posts
I just realized that KCM stats can be done with eloboard. There's always a memo "KCM" next to each entry of the KCM games so you can do an advanced search and get all the KCM games that have been played since eloboard was created. In one click. After some copy + paste + sort in an excel sheet, it gives me these stats, since Jun 2021: PvT: 233-214 (52.1%) TvZ: 251-226 (52.6%) ZvP: 263-221 (54.3%) The sample size is similar to that of ASL/KSL but the player pool is smaller (top 10 of each race probably). Would be nice if someone can dig up the stats before June 2021 though. Would x2 the sample size. | ||
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Ideas
United States8035 Posts
On November 14 2024 09:42 TMNT wrote: Actually there are not a lot of Bo7's ever played in ASL. They only introduced it from season 11 and only from the semifinals except for this season. For example there're only 8 Bo7 PvZ series in ASL and the score is 4-4, and many would find it surprising that Protoss is leading 22-20 in map score, of which Mini (16 wins) and Soulkey (12 wins) combined are responsible for 66% of the maps themselves. It's not useful data at all if we want to talk about balance because ultimately it comes down to a few players and their form on those specific days. And as RJB mentioned above, a 4-0 score in ASL may not suggest the dominance of the winner or the imba of the matchup like we would intuitively think. Simply because of the sample size and the flow of a BoX series in tournament. For example, Mini slapped Queen 4-1 in consecutive seasons, giving the impression of Queen being his bitch but if you check his overall win rate of him vs Queen right at the times he slapped Queen in ASL, it's just close to 50%. Similarly Soulkey just slapped Snow 4-0 this season but online overall they are more like 60/40 or something. Wow it feels like there has been a lot more lol. I guess recently bias of soulkey beating snow last 2 seasons has really skewed my memory. Thanks for sharing! | ||
Peeano
Netherlands4641 Posts
I'm not saying analyzing data and getting bigger samplw sizes and using more and better criteria shouldn't be done, but we can agree on 3 things: 1. Flash was the most imba to ever play the game so far, and like superman he still had his kryptonire in Effort 2. P>T>Z>P 3. Some players can be so good at a certain match up or map, they can overpower the imba Also if we keep a healthy influx of new maps,, the game won't get stale nor can we ever truly conclude imba. Thar's a good thing. What we can always easily see which player is the current best performer of them all and we only need some stats for that, no fancy analizing. Couple that with 2 Premier tournaments and we're golden. | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands463 Posts
On November 14 2024 22:29 TMNT wrote: I just realized that KCM stats can be done with eloboard. There's always a memo "KCM" next to each entry of the KCM games so you can do an advanced search and get all the KCM games that have been played since eloboard was created. In one click. After some copy + paste + sort in an excel sheet, it gives me these stats, since Jun 2021: PvT: 233-214 (52.1%) TvZ: 251-226 (52.6%) ZvP: 263-221 (54.3%) The sample size is similar to that of ASL/KSL but the player pool is smaller (top 10 of each race probably). Would be nice if someone can dig up the stats before June 2021 though. Would x2 the sample size. These stats are close enough to 50% to say the game is balanced. If you were to remove the current season of KCM you'd get a slightly worse ZvP winrate because zergs performed well, tosses performed less well. | ||
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JackyVSO
Denmark85 Posts
On November 14 2024 00:41 Ideas wrote: Interested in seeing the how much the season with Sparkle/3rd World affected Protoss' overall winrate in both matchups lol. But then again there's probably a couple seasons that had dramatically imbalanced maps for each race when you dig deep enough. I think the biggest problem with affecting PvZ still is the Bo7 format in the Ro8 onward. Protoss can do much better in Bo1s and Bo3s, but once you get to a series the Zerg have so many more options for mind-games and cheese than the protoss has. A player like Soulkey can really abuse that. edit - would love to see stats for each MU based on series length: Bo3, Bo5, Bo7. My prediction is that for TvZ and TvP it gets more balanced the longer the series, but for ZvP it gets more IMBA. Here you go: ![[image loading]](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/8mpcciezofu3iu2x2v149/winratebyformat.png?rlkey=p938nnmv6ix2arbw7mqws1ofd&dl=1) It shows almost the opposite of what you predicted. But we have very few Bo7 games in the database so those don't say very much. Here are the raw numbers: 1 3 5 7 T<P 107 42 87 22 T>P 94 28 71 32 P<Z 97 44 102 26 P>Z 80 34 108 26 T>Z 99 30 124 42 T<Z 93 31 99 44 | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands463 Posts
On November 16 2024 04:18 JackyVSO wrote: Here you go: It shows almost the opposite of what you predicted. But we have very few Bo7 games in the database so those don't say very much. Here are the raw numbers: 1 3 5 7 T<P 107 42 87 22 T>P 94 28 71 32 P<Z 97 44 102 26 P>Z 80 34 108 26 T>Z 99 30 124 42 T<Z 93 31 99 44 Because the sample size is so tiny its much more affected by player individual skill. | ||
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