EPT[M][N] Default Suspicions Mafia - Page 109
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
On February 21 2014 14:49 Balla24 wrote: + Show Spoiler + There is way too many people who I can't remember anything they've done. Even the high volume guys. Like rayn and marv you guys have posted a fuckton but I can't even tell who you guys are going to lynch at all, sure you've generated a lot of discussion but it's also a lot of chaos, maybe you guys thrive there... Anyways, I think prplhz, suki are town for now. prplhz started off from his very first post trying to start conversation, when that didn't work he tried something else. He has been very active in trying to push the thread in a positive direction and it's pretty clear that has been his goal the entire game based on how he's reacting to the thread on his returns to it: On February 21 2014 06:24 prplhz wrote: this game is all over the place Following that he continues to pressure people and it's pretty clear where he is going to lynch and who he thinks is scum and why. Everything is clear and transparent from him compared to plenty of other guys in this thread who are masking their activities and reasoning. He is also thinking a lot like me, especially recently with his kush and palmar pressure so that's a plus. suki is also probably town. Even though I don't like her approach to some people like Koshi and rayn, it seems like classic suki. She's hopping around between the people she accuses, reacting to their defenses. She often does that as town whereas as scum she's a lot more rigid with her reads (granted, she only has 1 scum game and that was a while ago). You can see that in Normal Mini Mafia, shadowed (non-reboot). + Show Spoiler [reactional suki] + On January 21 2014 09:52 suki wrote: You know what, I agree with you Barristan. I think Zarepath's case on VE is just a list of points that tries to squeeze out any sort of scumminess. It's weak, but he sounds like he's trying so hard to make it work. His follow up posts are all trying to keep up the pressure on VE. Compared to the filter linked by Barristan, Zarepath's tone has changed completely. In his previous game filter he had no problem listing off a bunch of people who he thought were scummy, and doing a bunch of analysis. In this game he's only talked about VE and no one else, and VE is not the only suspicious person in this game. ##unvote ##vote Zarepath I'm going to lay off VE for a bit. Pressuring him is going nowhere and I think he's defended well. On January 22 2014 02:21 suki wrote: Yeah ok. Re-reading again, this post reads townie to me. Particularly the part where he points out that his case was ignored, I think for scum it doesn't matter if people listen to their arguments as long as a townie is getting lynched, so pointing out his post reads more town. Tunneling can be done by town, stretching cases too far is also possible for a really tryhard town. Zarepath's switch to bum doesn't make sense if both of them are scum. And I agree that bum looks scummy. ##unvote ##vote bumatlarge On January 22 2014 06:00 suki wrote: I actually really really like everything here. Many of these things I didn't consider previously. One other thing I was eyeing was Crossfire's soft defense of Zarepath earlier in the game. Couple this with Zarepath including Crossfire into his list just now (alongside a really stupid desire to lynch WileE)... I think there's a good chance of them being scumbuddies. ##unvote ##vote Zarepath On January 22 2014 06:56 suki wrote: ##unvote Zarepath obviously did not have a fakeclaim, his reaction was genuine. On February 05 2014 02:24 suki wrote: So right now Oats is super scummy to me. His "case" against Koshi is bad, and yet he continues to push it. He's also not consistent with his views: This is almost a scum claim right here. Oats is doing the exact thing that he says scum would do, and yet he's calling other people out for it. Who is Oats willing to lynch today? (... On a side note, I don't approve of the personal attack calling Hopeless a 'useless piece of shit'.) Anyways. He suddenly thinks Hopeless is super scummy, without any reasoning. This is after LoneMeow has stated suspicions on Hopeless so it feels like a bandwagon. Hopeless was one of the people who didn't shit on Koshi's policy, and said that the policy makes him feel motivated. So this big scum tell that Oats has been pushing the entire game doesn't apply to his choice of lynches? He reads cake as null and yet it's cake and hopeless who he wants to discuss. Why not me, who you said was scummy for 'jumping on Koshi's policy' or those 'other dudes' that you so specifically called out? Why is LoneMeow town even though he was the most vocal about probably not meeting Koshi's 40 post policy? Hm. Also this exchange just leaves a bad taste in my mouth: Also, why does Oats avoid Balla's question here? He's not being transparent, and if he thinks Balla is town then why throw the question back at him? In summary, Oats is calling people scummy for something that he himself is actively doing. His reads on people seem random, rather than thought out. There's no logical progression on why he thinks Hopeless is super scummy and worth lynching (it feels like bandwagoning to try to push an easy lurker lynch). There's no explanation on why LoneMeow is town to him despite the dissonance with his 'Koshi policy' case. When asked to explain himself he's extremely reluctant. He tries to deflect attention from himself. This all reads as scum to me. ##vote Oatsmaster On February 05 2014 14:54 suki wrote: I think Oatsmaster's defense addresses my case sufficiently, and I like the direction he's taken after defending himself. That is, his tunnel on Hopeless. I've noted that previously as town he correctly called out hopeless for being scum in TL Mafia XLIII: Time to Die, basically for lurking and not contributing. He is doing the same here in his pressure on Hopeless. I'm still waiting on Hopeless to contribute something to the thread. Most of his posts are defense posts and fluff, he keeps promising content but hasn't delivered. ##unvote ##vote Hopeless1der At this point I also would be happy to lynch LoneMeow. He's done absolutely nothing this game. I think sidesprang's contributed more to this game in his one big post than LoneMeow has in his entire filter. On February 06 2014 01:31 suki wrote: ##unvote ##vote cakemanofdoom Hopeless is making sense. cake has been wishy washy all game. He bandwagons onto Hopeless, even though he thinks Koshi is mafia. He's ok with voting LoneMeow because LM is lurking. Like, he's taking the easy path. I read through his filter and I learn absolutely nothing. Like, it seems like he's contributing but when you really look closely he's not really saying anything that progresses towards a lynch. Even his case against Koshi feels non-enthusiastic. + Show Spoiler [Confident Scum Suki] + On January 07 2014 09:49 suki wrote: Hey guys, I'm back. First and foremost I think it's prudent to address the person that strikes me as the number one scum in the game: theDragoon The more I read these posts the more I dislike them. He's basically stating that he knows Asuna's "excuses, bandwagoning and self doubt" are due to her inexperience, and he's not leaving any room to interpret them as scummy. How would a town Dragoon be so sure? I'm more and more confident that the 'knows more about Asuna' line really is a scum slip. Other things that scream scum to me: theDragoon's knee jerk reaction to vote OWB because of an incorrect timeline. - Attacking his attacker for a slight inconsistency. His statement that Balla is rising up on his suspicions list with Balla's 'immediate' jump to lynch him. - More of the same His flip-flopping on Derrida, first saying his suspicion is 'low' and then on his very next post saying Derrida is higher up. - Scummy enough, and he even admits that he's flip-flopping His top scum reads are Day_Walker because he doesn't like that Day_Walker has a town read on him (???), and me, because he thinks I'm too eager to scumhunt (also ???). And aside from his knee-jerk suspicions thrown at OWB, Balla and now Derrida he hasn't contributed any other reads. + Show Spoiler + His top 2 scum read post: I'm not good enough at this game to get scum reads from forum posts. If you REALLY want me to give my top 2 most suspicious people are: Day_Walker: If I don't buy his town read on me, why should I believe his other reads. I've got the most votes on me right now and I want to see if Day_Walker still thinks I'm a townie. suki: "Okay then, lets get back to scumhunting :D". A bit too eager to go scumhunting there, don't ya think? Not really a good reason to call him mafia. And finally under all this pressure then he says his play is due to him being new to the game and self-destructs. I feel a lot of frustration in Dragoon's most recent posts, and I kind of feel bad for him since he is new to Mafia and this is a really gut-wrenching game, but I really do think his inexperience is his downfall and that there's no way he's not mafia here. ##vote theDragoon More analysis on its way. If there's anything you want me to answer post it; I'll be here for a bit. On January 07 2014 15:33 suki wrote: Mmm.. I'm not biting. This isn't good townie logic. Excuses, bandwagoning and self-doubt may be signs of newbie town, but they are also signs of mafia. You can't excuse someone for displaying mafia traits just because you display them. Again, it feels like you know that Asuna is a newbie town and that's what's suspicious here. The pro-town thing to do in your spot is to post the best analysis you can on the scummiest people you can find. This just feels like a last-ditch attempt to try to throw suspicion on everyone who voted you under the pretense of a "defense post" and see if someone bites. On January 07 2014 15:42 suki wrote: I think I was pretty clear in my posts as to why I think Dragoon is scum. I feel that his defense of Asuna is a major scum slip and the more he tries to justify it the more I believe it. Dragoon has also not played a pro-town game at all. His only scum reads have been on those who are attacking him, and he hasn't even taken the time to properly form a case. Like, I still don't know why he thinks I'm scummy I think that's the only reason he's given as to why I'm scum. Here is his defense post on me: Where is the analysis? He's just blindly attacking me because hey, I straight up said he's the scummiest person in the game. Same with the other people he's called out. I'd be very surprised if he bleeds green because his play has not been pro-town at all. On January 08 2014 01:06 suki wrote: Directed to Balla: Several recent quotes from Balla: + Show Spoiler + This is the most one sided lynch ever. I'm sorry but this should seriously be making you weary (suki/jonnylaw). The people who are not voting seem to also be tentatively saying that they are ok with the lynch if it were to happen now, besides Day_walker who probably is thinking along the same lines of this tbh. I'm searching for a new target. I really don't like how hard you lurked today sidesprang, so I'd lynch you just based on that, but other than that, I find Derrida pretty scummy. Ugh it's just so hard because I totally can see how scum would buss their teammate in this current situation. It's different than other one-sided lynches in the previous games because of how dragoon shut-down. Like I would totally buss him.. If I were scum, I would probably begin to buss him after he self-voted, so i'd look @ Derrida, suki and sidesprang (if im jsut looking at it chronologically, jonnylaw too) I mean, let's be honest, there is 100% for sure scum in the people who already voted him. Having them have a forced hand on what they think about him might be a good thing. It's gonna be a weight on EVERYONE's back, not just towns. I agree that the lynch on theDragoon is going smoothly, however that could just be mafia seeing the writing on the wall and deciding not to oppose. I agree that the smoothness of the lynch needs to be considered, however in the end we should still be lynching the scummiest person. Do you disagree? Also, you were the second person to vote for theDragoon, and your vote hasn't changed since then. I just want to clarify, do you still find theDragoon to be the most scummy? On January 13 2014 23:43 suki wrote: Alright I'm here. I had a reread through TheChyz's filter and I think he's been slipping hard since Day 2 ended. Here is TheChyz's conversation with Balla during Night 2, bolded parts for emphasis: + Show Spoiler + On January 12 2014 03:52 TheChyz wrote: Anyways I still want to reread some peoples filters to make sure I didn't confuse things between people and I'll have my explanation before night ends, but can you post yours aswell Balla : "Day 3 is going to be fun if what i'm thinking is happening. Will post about it later." On January 12 2014 03:57 Balla24 wrote: Also: there's 3 hours left, if I were going to post it I would have plenty of time to post it. I lost faith in the theory anyways. On January 12 2014 04:03 TheChyz wrote: And Balla, thats a bullshit reason not to make your post. You said "Day 3 is going to be fun if what i'm thinking is happening. Will post about it later" and since you keep pestering others to explain their thoughts, I expect you to do the same. On January 12 2014 04:06 Balla24 wrote: NO fuck that that's so scummy. It's pretty obvious what I had to say was due to night actions. You're pretty silly if you can't see that. So why would I post it 3 HOURS before the night is over and let mafia plan around that. MOST IMPORTANTLY THOUGH: Why are you pushing me so hard for it? I'm clearly active. This is SO fricking scummy from you Chyz. Do you need it to make a decision on what to do with your scum buddy? On January 12 2014 04:22 TheChyz wrote: @Balla What is so scummy about it, your doing the exact same thing from everybody else and forcing them to explain things, what makes you such a special case that whenever you say something we should just let you pass cause your active? Jonny (i think) said that you are active both scum and town so I find no reason why you felt that posting that you will post your thoughts later and then now not wanting to is scummy from me. Seems like your being very defensive. And you don't have to post now, just before night ends (even if its 1 sec before) On January 12 2014 05:00 TheChyz wrote: I didn't skip it, it will be done before the night ends. still got time. First off, I feel that TheChyz's pressure on Balla is really off. He pressures Balla for not providing his reads, and Balla replies there's still three hours before the night is over. TheChyz calls bullshit on Balla's reasoning. Following that, Balla asks TheChyz for analysis, and TheChyz simply replies there's still time. This inconsistency stands out to me, and I think there's a very good reason for it if you assume TheChyz is mafia - He wants to know what Balla's reads are before he posts his own analysis. There is no reason to assume Balla is not 1-shot vig as he claimed, and yet TheChyz seems to be getting ready to throw suspicion at Balla. Perhaps if Balla had his reads completely wrong and had posted them early enough, scum may have kept Balla alive. TheChyz posts his analysis at 2:58, 2 minutes before the deadline. Balla posts his at 2:59. The day post is posted at 3:02. Asuna has also made a strong case against TheChyz, the most striking of which is: Looking at his 'setup analysis' where he wrongly concludes that there is a SK, it may just have been a ploy to root out the remaining blue role, which he was successful at doing now that Asuna has role claimed. TheChyz tries to reason his way out by saying it was intentional or that it was due to his english, however I think there's enough evidence to strongly say that he screwed up in Night 2 and Day 3 and revealed himself through his actions and words. ##unvote ##vote TheChyz On January 14 2014 06:09 suki wrote: Just popping in to say that if theChyz flips scum in an hour, and I'm pretty sure he will, then BigDad is definitely his scumbuddy. TheChyz has been defending BigDad all game while not being under any pressure himself due to his Day 1 antics. It makes sense for a scum who is treated like a townie to back up his buddy who is under suspicion. At the beginning of the game BigDad stated a soft defense of TheChyz ("I'm leaning toward Balla and TheChyz being townie"), when TheChyz was under pressure for his antics, but ever since that post BigDad has put mild pressure against TheChyz until his full on bus today. The fact that BigDad has never closely analyzed TheChyz I think makes sense if both of them are scum. I think we've solved the game guys :D I'm getting jitters anticipating the flip. Unfortunately I have a dinner with my family so I'll miss the deadline but I'll pop back on as soon as I can. (Literally just took these from a previous meta case on her which you can read here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=442787¤tpage=50#982, even though the case was wrong for that game specifically, I think a lot of the points hold true) Another thing is she's has good followups to everything and is not afraid to be engaging the town powerhouses (marv, rayn) in conversation, which I was in my first mafia game together with rayn at least. This point isn't as good without flips though. Her lightheartedness and frustration that nobody is playing around with her in the opening of the game also feels townie to me. Her activity and pressure is good too, she's actively questioning people and creating a good town atmosphere. Her filter is getting up there which is good considering her last town game (9pages on d1). Beyond the non-questioning of rayn's motives and the weird case on koshi she feels good, and I think at least the rayn motive point is something she would ignore generally. Kush and Toad are likely mafia I think. I'd lynch both. Everybody else is questionable... Kush has been pretty inactive for kush first off. From what i've played with him, he always opens asking for people to start shit and calls people out immediately when their posts are useless, he didn't do any of that here and there has been plenty of useless posts, even when people are talking to him. I think his reactions to questioning and pressure are bad and I don't think he has any real reasoning for any of the reads he has given out because they look fake. On February 20 2014 23:59 VIVAX420 wrote: eh ill bet anyone toad is town. I dont really get marv's case against him. He's a lynch bait player isn't he? lynch bait players usually look less scummy as town. Plus I don't like the people pushing him. On February 21 2014 06:57 VIVAX420 wrote: yeah but i thought you were better than i now realize you are. suck on that. on rayn/marv: On February 21 2014 07:01 VIVAX420 wrote: because i thoght there arguments looked fake His only scum reads are rayn and marv because their "arguments looked fake" so it's just straight up associative and has nothing to with them individually, I find it hard to believe that anybody would think that when reading them. I would have really expected him to be on my case earlier instead of others and especially when others were on my case, the last couple of games he was. He was pressuring me into posting a fuck ton and then when I didn't he decided I was scum. He didn't even comment on me. Toad's only scum read seems to be me. That's pretty bad... especially considering his case on me was almost solely based on early game meta, and even though I agree that my early game could possibly be interpreted as similar to my scum games, I think he was purposefully misrepresenting both what I was saying in the early game, and the context which you can see what I said about it here: On February 21 2014 02:22 Balla24 wrote: The rest of the case is meta and I can see what you're seeing but you're also only looking at the first couple posts in the game. So if you play like that fine~ However here what I quoted you're ignoring context. I was asking Koshi to do something because he was saying "hey balla is maybe scum" and I wanted him to post his reasoning so we could get into a shit show and people can start the game based on that... but it turns out he didn't. I was doing the same thing when Suki was withholding saying why I was scum. I wanted them to post it to start something because they kept hinting that they were going to but not doing it. Prplhz WAS the only one starting anything so I don't see what's red about that... I find it weird that someone would write a meta case on what LITTLE i had in the thread at that time, especially in comparison to what everybody else was doing in regards to me which was just "wait and see". I think it's a weak attempt to try to draw attention to someone who opened pretty weakly. I think it's annoying that he focused so heavily on the rayn subject and responding to questioning about it. May not be his fault, but even if I was in his shoes I would have attempted to get my opinions out on somebody else as well. I wasn't around so I don't know how rapid fire this stuff was going on. As soon as it ended he wrote a case on me and then nothing else. Looking forward to his contributions in the rest of the day. Rayn, marv, CFP are all pretty questionable. Rayn is obviously hard to read. As either alignment he is balls to the walls with content, calling out every little thing. The trend I see is generally as town rayn has a real reasoning for everything and actually follows through with his reads, whereas as scum he is just picking on every little thing to cause a shit show in the thread and he's also much more abrasive. I can't tell which one he is doing now obviously, but the 2 times he has done a "does anybody see what I'm seeing play" reads townie. Marv is generating a LOT of content and asking plenty of good questions. But he also seems content to just sit within a shit storm and let it happen/contribute to it which is scummy. He has one instance of trying to move the thread forward during one of those shit storms (during the toad debacle) in which he suggests to move forward since we aren't going to get anything more out of it, however that was way after and was actually producing useful content. I'm referencing things like his conversation with kush. CFP, one of those players who I was referencing who I can't remember what he's done. Even after reading his filter -_- all I remember is his line of questioning vs palmar. I'd be fine with him dying because of it. His read-through of the thread didn't really produce any good content and he hasn't done anything after that besides bitch about how . I liked his followup to my questions so that's good. Everyone else I have commented on recently I think and are all questionable. TLDR: would lynch kush/toad atm, suki and prplhz probably town, would be ok with CFP dying but not high on my priority list, would also be ok with oats dying because i'm always uncomfortable with oats but nothing sticks compared to the norm. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On February 23 2014 23:08 kushm4sta wrote: im just trying to figure out why teh fuck people want to lynch balla? As it stands suki was becoming suspicious of balla and she has played several games with him CuteFluffyPuppy found Balla's reactions to the fakeclaim thing suspicious Balla failed at any time to address the case on Toadesstern, and I don't really buy the argument "I felt nothing either way so I didn't comment on it at all" Is probably the most likely mafia person on Toadesstern if one exists Kept asking Palmar why his vote was on Toadesstern (when it was obvious that the Toad case was the strongest in the thread apart from anything else) puts obv-town marvellosity under a heading "pretty questionable" and tries to palm it off saying I'm on the townside (personal reason :D) | ||
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
terrible case but i still like you as town because the terribleness comes from a place of arrogance i know you have inside you. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
just like you said toad was definitely town. great call there too. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On February 23 2014 23:30 kushm4sta wrote: summary: he didn't comment on your toad argument and he thinks you might be scum, therefore he is scum. terrible case but i still like you as town because the terribleness comes from a place of arrogance i know you have inside you. The fact is, it wasn't just my toad argument. It was my toad argument that I repeatedly pushed and explained. Palmar repeatedly pushed and explained the Toad argument. rayn repeatedly pushed Toad. Balla never addresses any of this. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On February 23 2014 23:30 kushm4sta wrote: summary: he didn't comment on your toad argument and he thinks you might be scum, therefore he is scum. terrible case but i still like you as town because the terribleness comes from a place of arrogance i know you have inside you. It's tempting to lynch kush for this alone. You still like me as town? Well fucking duh. | ||
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
On February 23 2014 23:30 marvellosity wrote: not the summary at all, as usual your comprehension is awful. just like you said toad was definitely town. great call there too. yes folks scumslips are real. And here is a huge one: this sentence implies that I am town. yet supposedly he has me as a scumread. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
btw if balla isn't mafia then you are, so i'd be careful with what you're arguing here | ||
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
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Koshi
Belgium38797 Posts
Balla big post very townie still. rayn knows balla very well. He lynched him twice and played scum with him. That scumgame I was in the game and it does not look like this. Why is rayn so irrational? It pisses me off because he is bad. He knows balla and can make a real case if he wants. Instead we get this retarded garbage that is retarded. Even I push rayn with more reaskning than this when I am in tunnel. Currently not near pc. 4 hours from now I will be. But will phonepost some. | ||
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