EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XLVII - Page 21
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
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killerdog
Denmark6522 Posts
Given how little he's posted so far, I think any attempt to work out what role he is is just going to be speculation. Blurry has made the argument that he's not mafia because mafia would have defended themselves by now. I disagree strongly with supporting that view point because not only does it discourage him from posting, but reading a lack of contribution as townie is pretty just getting a bit WIFOM imo. (did I use it right? :p) I also don't like that blurry brought that up so quickly, that's a valid point to make if we get to 30 minutes before the deadline and he still hasn't posted or something, but bringing it up so early before myrzeth has proven that he isn't going to defend himself further just complicates everything imo. No reason to provide someone under pressure with an out. Personally I'm in no way convinced that he's scum. I think it comes down to a choice between lynching myrzeth because he's lurking/being useless or lynching someone else who we think reads scummy. Personally I'm leaning towards lynching myrzeth, because from the way he responded to people challenging his silence, and the fact he still hasn't come in with a post bigger then a one liner, means I don't think he's going to suddenly be super contributive tomorrow. I'd rather not have to spend half a day arguing with someone about play styles again, or even worse have him just dissappear and then being in a situation day 2 where there might be a strong mafia read we want to lynch, but having to choose between lynching the afk lurker or the mafia read. And if he turns out to be mafia thats just a perk. | ||
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Umasi
United States1399 Posts
rather, we're all shit vts in thread, so it's more correct to say unmotivated shit vts. :| I'm not sure what to think of him, heavenz goes through spurts of improvement and then (presumably he sleeps) inactivity, lonemeow just questions shit for days as has been pointed out, infii is scummy d1 as per the usual,, gah. On September 06 2013 05:11 killerdog wrote: Given how little he's posted so far, I think any attempt to work out what role he is is just going to be speculation. Blurry has made the argument that he's not mafia because mafia would have defended themselves by now. I disagree strongly with supporting that view point because not only does it discourage him from posting, but reading a lack of contribution as townie is pretty just getting a bit WIFOM imo. (did I use it right? :p) I also don't like that blurry brought that up so quickly, that's a valid point to make if we get to 30 minutes before the deadline and he still hasn't posted or something, but bringing it up so early before myrzeth has proven that he isn't going to defend himself further just complicates everything imo. No reason to provide someone under pressure with an out. Personally I'm in no way convinced that he's scum. I think it comes down to a choice between lynching myrzeth because he's lurking/being useless or lynching someone else who we think reads scummy. Personally I'm leaning towards lynching myrzeth, because from the way he responded to people challenging his silence, and the fact he still hasn't come in with a post bigger then a one liner, means I don't think he's going to suddenly be super contributive tomorrow. I'd rather not have to spend half a day arguing with someone about play styles again, or even worse have him just dissappear and then being in a situation day 2 where there might be a strong mafia read we want to lynch, but having to choose between lynching the afk lurker or the mafia read. And if he turns out to be mafia thats just a perk. I guess that's the question. Personally, I'd prefer to lynch the highest chance scum, and there's still an hour and 45 minutes (correct?) | ||
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killerdog
Denmark6522 Posts
1. lynch myrzeth for shitty town play (and if we get lucky and hit a mafia, yay win) 2. lynch someone as a scum read, the a few people are pushing for LV in particular. I also think chairman ray has been a bit suspicious compared to other people, but I've seen a few people put him down as one of their town reads so thats moved him (temporarily) down on my scum list. 3. lynch someone else for shitty town play, but I don't see anyone else as anywhere near as potentially useless at myrzeth seems to be looking. | ||
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killerdog
Denmark6522 Posts
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
I'm also not sure I'd want to lynch Lord Velocity either, while he does seem somewhat scummy the fact that no one seems to be opposed to lynching him makes me wonder if he's just mislynch bait. (Yay, pre-flip associations... But I still do really feel that way, for now.) More in a bit, typing one handed is painfully slow... | ||
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Lord Velocity
84 Posts
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
On September 06 2013 05:35 Lord Velocity wrote: Has nobody honestly noticed how sketchy bereft is? Like nobody has noticed anybody except me and myRZ but our tunnel shouldn't still be on us in general, like we know people don't like me, we know they don't like MyRz, open it up a bit and read like what bereft has said or what killer has said. I will have longer posts in like 2 hours, have to take the bus home Please point out exactly why you think he's "sketchy" and preferably quick as we don't have that much time before the lynch. | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
On September 04 2013 07:36 Chairman Ray wrote: Regardless of the math, a day 1 lynch as the norm gets people talking. No lynch = no incentive to give up information. Unless everyone is super cooperative and gives great information, we lynch. + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2013 08:16 Chairman Ray wrote: A lynch on day 1 incentivizes people to avoid being the scummiest looking player since that player WILL be lynched A possible no lynch on day 1 doesn't achieve this incentive since unless you completely crumble and blurt our something incriminating, then you don't get lynched So under the first case, as long as every genuine townsperson is being very active and contributing, then mafia is forced to do the same. Even if we lynch a town on the first day, we're still on a good start. If not every genuine townsperson is active or contributing, lynching them isn't a big loss. + Show Spoiler + On September 05 2013 03:32 Chairman Ray wrote: Since there's already been a few people suggesting they would rather no lynch than risk killing a quiet townie, then I'm gonna go ahead and say it: yes, there's a possibility of voting no lynch on first day. We threaten to lynch on the first day, and in the back of our minds we think about the option of no lynch. However the threat of a first day lynch no longer is a threat if people say it's just going to be a threat. By vocalizing that it's just a threat and we're actually allowing quiet people to live the first day, then the mafia will know that they have that option. So what we're all supposed to do is pretend that lynch is mandatory until the very end to make people think they need to talk, and then at the very end, we decide what's best. Now that this info is out there, I think we should actually do mandatory lynch. myRZeth has not said anything yet, and if that keeps up, then I will definitely be voting him. Who's in agreement? These 3 posts are all talking about no-lynching. This is fair enough seeing as the topic at the time was that, however, the third post was after the whole conversation had ended and infii had posted this post: + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2013 23:36 infii wrote: I would also love to see more participation from the people with the lower post counts (of course including me), so I did dive a bit into the filters. heavenz: Considering the fact that the discussion about yes/no-lynch on D1 was already going on for about 1 hour at the time you posted this, why did you go ahead and claim it to be 'a bit of a discussion starter' with your second post? myrzeth: Yup... we need to hear more from you merzeth. What is your opinion on lynching the most inactive player on Day1? Pharcyd: His only post, though he stated before that he would have plenty of time to keep up with the thread. So why not also contribute to the discussion? Chairman Ray: Took part in the early discussion about Day1 lynch with 2 posts saying the exact same thing. Also I disagree a bit with you here, because you don't have to actually execute the lynch to get people talking. A lynch threat is more than enough. Don’t you think lynching a less active townmember early on is a loss? Because they could still improve on Day 2 for example. Ok basically everyone listed above should step up and contribute to the discussion. You can start by answering my questions. On another note: Don’t you think the effect of a lynch threat will be reduced when you always have someone voted? If you want other players to know who you are targetting just write it in this thread for everyone to see. To insinuate further confusion he posted this: + Show Spoiler + On September 05 2013 04:03 Chairman Ray wrote: I am currently working on my scum reads right now, and will post them in a sec. As for Umasi/HolyFlare, one of the best scum tactics is to have two scum ragging on each other the first day. It monopolizes the discussion preventing productive town discourse, paints them both as very pro town, and in the case that one of them turns mafia, there's a strong argument for the other one being town. Because of this, I am not willing to read them both as town. Right now, there's a possibility of both being scum, both being town, or one being mafia, so lynching one will not give us ANY headway, I say keep them both alive on day 1. Based on who gets lynched and who gets killed by mafia, we may be able to eliminate one of the possibilities. What better way to confuse townies than put them against each other? Stating that one of them is mafia and one of them is town is planting the seed for later when people get confused and re-read these things. Not to mention his 'scum' reads that come later are just as lackluster (will post that bit further down). The conversation had already stopped between me and umasi and then it was brought up again with possibilities. He states that a mafia strategy can be to divert attention to their argument and stifle the town but that whoever gets killed or lynched will reveal the alignment of the other. That is not true either, nothing can be sought at from those posts as they were merely a heated discussion about policies etc. This is where it gets the most scum like. READ THIS ABOVE ALL ELSE. Who was his previous post about? Me and Umasi. Who did he say not to lynch day 1 because it would be a mistake? Me and Umasi. Who is his scum read on? + Show Spoiler + On September 05 2013 06:07 Chairman Ray wrote: My intention was not to suggest ignoring the entire discussion. My intention was two things: firstly, to the few people suggesting that either you or Holy may be town (or both), I disagree completely and I would like to consider both of you just as much as everyone else. Secondly, your discussion with HolyFlare and everyone else set up a lot of variables and a few equations. This is the best thing to carry into the second round since we have almost enough information to deduce pairs of people who cannot both be mafia. This is why I'm suggesting lynching either you or holyflare first turn is unproductive for town. I will give my first set of reads. When HolyFlare said that he was withholding his reads, he dug himself an obligation. By the end of this day, he must make a play justifying that he withheld his reads with good reason, or else he's mafia. If we see his posts and decide that there's no reason why he didn't give his reads in the first place, I think he's a good mafia candidate. When you started attacking HolyFlare and threw in a vote, I don't think at that point there was any good indication that HolyFlare is mafia. I think that either both of you are mafia, in which case the discourse was counterproductive for town because you misled everyone, or you are town, in which case you were both pressuring HolyFlare and seeing who would ride the lynch train. This gives me a reason to ease up on the possibility that you are mafia and HolyFlare is town. Me and Umasi. lol? It isn't even a scum read or anything it just states the same thing as his last post. That we could be both town both mafia or one of each, that's just nothing of value. Not to mention the rest of his posts. + Show Spoiler + On September 05 2013 07:48 Chairman Ray wrote: Irrelevant post? Fixing keyboard? How do these two things even relate? Did anyone see the post before it was edited? I actually think we had a slipup. #vote Lord Velocity What was the post before you edited? He jumps right on top of velocity and hasn't unvoted him since. With no new information at all. That is why instead of voting out the lurker who may just be total crap to begin with I think this is a bigger scum tell for me so; ##Unvote ##Vote: Chairman Ray | ||
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Lord Velocity
84 Posts
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
His early posts are reasonable, but he seems to be carefully avoiding taking sides and never really calls anyone scum (besides a 0-poster...) before jumping on Lord Velocity for that ridiculous edit mishap. I can easily see scum motivation for wanting not to implicate anyone until an easy target shows up to jump on. I could also consider Infii, but his "big post" does bring up some decent points that would have to be considered. ##Vote: Chairman Ray | ||
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killerdog
Denmark6522 Posts
On September 06 2013 05:33 LoneMeow wrote: I'm also not sure I'd want to lynch Lord Velocity either, while he does seem somewhat scummy the fact that no one seems to be opposed to lynching him makes me wonder if he's just mislynch bait. (Yay, pre-flip associations... But I still do really feel that way, for now.) I've voiced my opinion that I don't think he's an intelligent d1 lynch, although it was a while ago so I'll give my reasons again. I'm reading him as a new player who is very eager, he cracked under pressure very easily both times, but bounced right back almost immediately. The lack of caution in his play (especially right after being under the gun) requires self confidence that I don't think mafia have.+ Show Spoiler + (note, after the first time I made this point, I looked at his posting habits before and after to see if he suddenly went more aggressive, but didn't see any noticeable change.) My overall read is he's one of three things -New player who's really eager but isn't very experienced -Really good mafia player who's faking newbie town really well -Really bad mafia who's playing wayyyy more agressive then he should given his current situation. (The last two are a bit wifom) But currently I'm leaning towards him being inexperienced town. The reason I think he'd be a poor d1 lynch is, firstly, He's active, bad at pressure and not afraid to commit to things. This means that if he is mafia, he shouldn't be very hard to break in a day or two, and his aggressive posting is leaving a huge crumb trail behind him. Secondly, he doesn't really have any friends right now, he hasn't really defended anyone and has at various points called pretty much everyone scummy. So I feel that regardless of what he flips, we don't really learn anything. Compare that to the information we might get from lynching someone else. Say we lynch Infii, regardless of whether he flips scum or town, we have the potential to look at his past posts and maybe learn something from them. Not everyone has aggroed on him and he hasn't aggroed on very many people and we could maybe read something from that. And third and most importantly, I'm just not getting a scum read off him. It might be because he hasn't aggroed on me at all, but his play just seems to open and carefree for me to tick him off as overly scummy. I hope that makes sense. Anyway, as my vote on myrzeth suggests, he's my current preferred target, just because I don't see him being anything other then a liability if left alive, but I'm open to suggestions. | ||
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heavenz
Austria301 Posts
On September 06 2013 05:35 Lord Velocity wrote: Has nobody honestly noticed how sketchy bereft is? Like nobody has noticed anybody except me and myRZ but our tunnel shouldn't still be on us in general, like we know people don't like me, we know they don't like MyRz, open it up a bit and read like what bereft has said or what killer has said. I will have longer posts in like 2 hours, have to take the bus home you are not reading careful enough, please read my post regarding him. I went about every post he went (if you filter me the longest one). What you are saying is also not true, my last post was regarding blurry. I don't know why you speak in such absolutes, do you blend out everything you don't want to see? | ||
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killerdog
Denmark6522 Posts
On September 06 2013 04:17 Blurry wrote: My opinion is that Chairman Ray is slightly town because he did advance the discussion and brought up concerns about players nobody else had really said anything against. Your opinion on holyflares psot? | ||
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killerdog
Denmark6522 Posts
On September 06 2013 05:35 Lord Velocity wrote: I will have longer posts in like 2 hours, have to take the bus home The day ends an hour and a half from when you made that post, (one hour from when I make this one.) Make sure you don't get modkilled for talking at night :p | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
Not all of my posts thus far have been genuine to my feelings, but rather baits to get certain reactions. After thorough analysis, I have concluded that HolyFlare and Umasi are both town, and I am about 95% sure of it. I will post a very long analysis during the nighttime since there's only 1 hour left. I didn't vote Lord Velocity because I wanted him lynched. I voted him to pressure him into giving information. When Umasi pressured him early on, he paniced a lot. I pressured him again in case he would give out something incriminating, but he didn't. The reason I kept my vote on him was a bait for mafia. Since there's many votes on myRZeft, I needed to but a little buffer on someone else just so that mafia still thinks they have a chance at saving him by triple voting on someone. They have not fallen for that and it's 1 hour remaining. MyRZeft himself is not even joining a bandwagon and just voting on his own. This leads me to believe that myRZeft is not mafia. From all this information, I would urge you guys to not vote myRZeft. Also don't vote HolyFlare or Umasi, which I will explain later (I promise) | ||
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Blurry
Switzerland125 Posts
On September 06 2013 05:57 killerdog wrote: Blurry, you're the only person who's declared chairman ray a town read recently. Your opinion on holyflares psot? I don't think scum go after the two most active players, that just doesn't make sense to me because it means a lot of scrutiny will be on you. Let me reread his stuff again, but none of it seems to be scummy in my eyes. | ||
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killerdog
Denmark6522 Posts
On September 06 2013 06:00 Chairman Ray wrote: I will post a very long analysis during the nighttime since there's only 1 hour left. --- From all this information, I would urge you guys to not vote myRZeft. Also don't vote HolyFlare or Umasi, which I will explain later (I promise) Two things, firstly, are we actually allowed to talk at night? I thought we weren't but looking at the rules I don't see that anywhere so I might be wrong. Secondly, you just said a bunch of people you don't think we should lynch. Given that the current target is you, and not any of those people, the only reason not to lynch you you've given so far is the promise of a potential long post. Who would you rather see lynched and why? | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
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