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On July 25 2013 03:13 VayneAuthority wrote:
I read the OP it just says closed setup besides 6 mafia and a traitor.
So you are saying that Marv/sloosh fabricated those logs to make us think that there is an SK when there isn't?
Yeah I think that's likely. And even if Marv is somehow an SK, killing him will still drop KP.
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The logs between Sloosh/Marv are a null tell for me. He's going to post those as any alignment. As town he's going to post them because he has no reason to hide them. If he's scum, he's going to post them to confuse town. As SK he's going to post them to try to get town cred. So, the logs themselves don't do that much to help us decide what alignment he is.
Now though, we have a supposed check between MZ and Marv that says they're different. The role is not confirmed though. So, we can't rule out the possibility that the parity cop might be scum lying. It's not a bad ploy to pull, since if town actually believes the claim, you get two possible town lynches for free, and then town has to lynch you, giving scum a free two mislynches and a couple of rounds of night kills for only one scum. So, Rayn, and whoever else knows the identity of the parity cop, should think hard about this person's alignment, and figure out how trustworthy they actually are.
After tonight though, we'll have a much better idea of what to do though. If we're actually going to believe the claim, there's no reason to have to decide between MZ and Marv tonight. The reason for this is due to what's going to happen with the night actions. Now, either the cop is going to die, or he's going to live. If the cop dies, he's confirmed, and we know to lynch between MZ and Marv. If he lives, he'll have another check, and it will condemn one of Marv or Meapak, since he should have two checks the same and one different. So, all should be revealed with the day flip. Now though, the only potential flaw with this, is if mafia have some sort of roleblocker. If the cop claims to be roleblocked, then this is the case where we should focus attention on Marv, MZ, and the cop himself, who might be lying scum.
Based on what Rayn's said, there's about two-degrees of seperation between him and the cop. So, if say Rayn dies tonight or someone else does that breaks that mason chain, and the cop lives, then the cop probably has to claim. If he doesn't claim, or the people masoned to him don't claim the contact, then the check should be disregarded as most likely being fake.
So, I'm waiting for the flips. *Twiddles thumbs*
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Yeah the cop should claim if they can't tell anyone about their check via mason.
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So it looks like we're probably down to between SnB, Marv, and MZ tomorrow.
ASSUMING cop claim is accurate, then there is a 50%+ chance for Marv or MZ to be anti-town.
That means that if we lynch Marv or MZ we have a baseline 50% chance to be right. On top of that, take whatever read you have on Marv or MZ, and that's a really solid lynch.
SnB on the other hand, I think town pretty much agrees looks really scummy, and we'll lynch him later, but I think we really need to prioritize Marv/MZ.
1) If there is an SK in the game, killing marv/mz reduces night KP by 1
2) If there isn't an SK in the game, killing scum marv/mz/snb has the same effect (it either reduces KP or it doesn't, but if marv and snb were both scum, it's pretty equivalent)
Now, if we assume that marv/sloosh convo and the mz/marv cop check are related, then there's a way higher chance that the cop claim is accurate and town as well as Marv/MZ being SK. If you think they're related that pretty much clears the cop check.
Also if you think the cop check is legit, then 1 of Marv/MZ is GUARANTEED to be anti-town. Whereas SnB is just a strong town scum read.
So lynching Marv/MZ is much more of a guarantee than SnB.
TL;DR - If you are approximately equally sure between SnB and Marv/MZ, you should vote for Marv/MZ.
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I wrote this up before seeing Wiggles post. I'd just like to emphasize that if the MZ/Marv cop claim is related to the Marv/Sloosh convo then I think the cop claim is definitely more legit looking. Either way obviously what happens tonight should tell us quite a bit.
ALSO - Does anyone else finds it weird that MZ and Marv don't really question the legitimacy of the cop? MZ says lynch him and Marv, no mention of well what if the cop is fake and we're both innocent. Marv just screams LOOK AT MY TOWN CRED EVERYONE. Hmm...
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
I think you guys have way too much respect for the amount of effort I'd put into masoning/logs if I weren't town :/
Me and yamato faked our logs, I faked logs with slOosh, and I made infinite-logs with Vivax for shits and giggles? Really? :/
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
The reason I'm so incredulous is that I just find it so unbelievable lol
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On July 25 2013 05:19 marvellosity wrote:
I think you guys have way too much respect for the amount of effort I'd put into masoning/logs if I weren't town :/
Me and yamato faked our logs, I faked logs with slOosh, and I made infinite-logs with Vivax for shits and giggles? Really? :/
If you were SK that would still make sense.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
I guess I best start shooting town then!
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On July 25 2013 05:27 marvellosity wrote:
I guess I best start shooting town then!
... Why are you acting like this Marv? >_< I'm just saying it doesn't clear you. It's the same thing as Rayn, where you two run around being all OMG LOOK AT MY TOWN CRED. I'm just saying, the actions also make sense for an SK.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
I don't have cred, it's just dumb to think I'm not town, that's all. So who do I shoot? I'll let you decide Korynne, you seem like a nice fellow. I'm thinking rayn, I know he loves being shot.
Pewpewpew, pewpew! *kaboom*
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I reread my logs and i propose the following. If i die tonight question the cop, and do it hard. There are several fishy points in their behaviour. For example:
The person who told me about the cop check was not supposed to reveal their identity. They however did. When i told the other person about the check, the cop went "RAYN TOLD THEM ABOUT IT?????". They had no intention to question the person who told me about the check and was supposed to hide their identity. That's fucking fishy.
They also wanted me to out the check in thread. I have no fucking idea why. Why not the first person who they did tell about it? What's the point in passing the information over and over again in case it comes to scum hands if you want to out it in thread?
Note that the "cop" i am talking about might not be the actual cop but a proxy to them.
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I don't know how you guys feel about SnB. But for me he is 85% scum atm, I would take that over 50/50, the problem is that I start doubting that cop claim. Or I think 1 is town and 1 is the SK.
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On July 25 2013 05:38 marvellosity wrote:
I don't have cred, it's just dumb to think I'm not town, that's all. So who do I shoot? I'll let you decide Korynne, you seem like a nice fellow. I'm thinking rayn, I know he loves being shot.
Pewpewpew, pewpew! *kaboom*
Can't tell if you're serious... I mean I would tell you to shoot SnB because I think we all agree he looks scummy.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
Deadly, deadly serious. Don't wanna shoot s&b though, he played in my first newbie with me. Such a qt patootie.
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On July 25 2013 05:55 marvellosity wrote:
Deadly, deadly serious. Don't wanna shoot s&b though, he played in my first newbie with me. Such a qt patootie.
What kind of excuse is that? Wanna shoot MZ then to clear you two up? Or you just gunna make up some new excuse? How about you just give me a list of people you won't kill so we don't have to waste posts going back and forth.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
On July 25 2013 05:59 Korynne wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2013 05:55 marvellosity wrote:
Deadly, deadly serious. Don't wanna shoot s&b though, he played in my first newbie with me. Such a qt patootie. What kind of excuse is that? Wanna shoot MZ then to clear you two up? Or you just gunna make up some new excuse? How about you just give me a list of people you won't kill so we don't have to waste posts going back and forth.
It's a fine excuse. You'll have to read the spoiler to find out more.
+ Show Spoiler +
Anyway I'm going to stop posting as I'm sure I must be around my limit. I'm sure I'll be around tomorrow, because mafia have no reason to kill an SK who could shoot into them, amirite?
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I will be ending the cycle an hour early today. Make sure to get any actions in. Tonight twilight will be at 9PM EST instead of 10PM EST.
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You really should respond to my PM rayn.
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MZ HOW THE FUCK IS MARV SCUM PLZ ANSER
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On July 25 2013 09:41 kushm4sta wrote:
MZ HOW THE FUCK IS MARV SCUM PLZ ANSER
Well I'm town so unless rayn's cop is lying that makes marv scum.
Not rocket science.
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EPT
