On February 24 2013 13:44 ShynZ wrote:
artosis predicted that FXO is gonna win tonight. oh well, we will see
artosis predicted that FXO is gonna win tonight. oh well, we will see
cursed...
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L0L
United States176 Posts
On February 24 2013 13:44 ShynZ wrote: artosis predicted that FXO is gonna win tonight. oh well, we will see cursed... | ||
ZeromuS
Canada13372 Posts
On February 24 2013 15:52 L0L wrote: Show nested quote + On February 24 2013 13:44 ShynZ wrote: artosis predicted that FXO is gonna win tonight. oh well, we will see cursed... On stream he said roro would win gsl. | ||
kheldorin
Singapore539 Posts
On February 24 2013 15:54 ZeromuS wrote: Show nested quote + On February 24 2013 15:52 L0L wrote: On February 24 2013 13:44 ShynZ wrote: artosis predicted that FXO is gonna win tonight. oh well, we will see cursed... On stream he said roro would win gsl. Artosis should just start predicting the opposite of what he normally would predict. Hopefully, that would break his "curse". | ||
Shellshock
United States97252 Posts
On February 24 2013 16:20 kheldorin wrote: Show nested quote + On February 24 2013 15:54 ZeromuS wrote: On February 24 2013 15:52 L0L wrote: On February 24 2013 13:44 ShynZ wrote: artosis predicted that FXO is gonna win tonight. oh well, we will see cursed... On stream he said roro would win gsl. Artosis should just start predicting the opposite of what he normally would predict. Hopefully, that would break his "curse". The curse knows what you really want in your heart. It wouldn't work. I guess it would make him look good on paper but all his favorites would still lose | ||
tshi
United States2495 Posts
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SuperFanBoy
New Zealand1068 Posts
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Cuce
Turkey1127 Posts
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kheldorin
Singapore539 Posts
On February 24 2013 16:30 SuperFanBoy wrote: Indeed, even Grubby said that in wc3 he would almost beat players who were weaker than him every time, but on sc2 its not so much. It was the same with red alert 3, if you know you were better than someone than your chance of winning was 90%. Naniwa in one of the teamliquid attack episodes countered that by saying that the resources given to Grubby is a lot more than what other players have access to. HasuObs confirmed that there are external barriers unrelated to player skill that prevented mid-tier player from reaching top tier. SC2 is just a lot more open. If you're good enough, you can get sent to Korea and unlike in BW, you won't get treated like a fifth-class citizen. You won't be forced to sacrifice the improvement of your own play for the sake of the top team players. | ||
iky43210
United States2099 Posts
On February 24 2013 16:30 SuperFanBoy wrote: Indeed, even Grubby said that in wc3 he would almost beat players who were weaker than him every time, but on sc2 its not so much. It was the same with red alert 3, if you know you were better than someone than your chance of winning was 90%. I call bullshit. Just because there isn't any worthy statistic analysis available for wc3 doesn't mean you can make things up. Nobody can have 90% win rate in any healthy game, welcome to reality | ||
Ryder.
1117 Posts
As other people have said, when you have a game with 3 distinctly different races, a volatile metagame and constant patches you are not going to get a huge level of consistency... | ||
TigerKarl
1757 Posts
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Blargh
United States2077 Posts
On February 24 2013 19:24 TigerKarl wrote: Why is anyone even posting here? Everything is said and if you think otherwise you should improve your knowledge about statistics. To prove you wrong. See? I just proved you wrong! While statistics are good and well, I think a better discussion, which is still somewhat on-topic would be: Should a competitive game ever have it so a lesser player can win, ever? Shouldn't the better player always win 100% simply because they are better? Obviously, some days you perform worse than others, but that would somewhat imply that he wasn't better on that day. A perfect competitive game should reward only the best player. The GSL finalists are NOT the best players. Would you have ever said that Sniper is the best player, after he won that GSL? I sure as hell wouldn't. Chess does pretty well with this. Players are very consistent at the high levels. There are many many draws, which are okay, but they also play multiple matches. The fact that players lose one match and win another versus the same player seems flawed to me, but it's balanced out (a SC2 pro wins 60% of matches, but do they win 60% of series? That's the more important question!) | ||
Thurken
961 Posts
Half the problem is GSL, SC2 most volatile tournament, now that people really know the game (aka pass the first year). Of course, sometimes favorites win the tournament, but for example the fact that only about two players managed to get twice to ro8 in 2012 is a good tell. Many reasons : the bracket system for group play and the no elimination format are really entertaining to watch but not the most fair system for players. The time to study your opponent and build tailored strat coupled with the really fast pace of the game and the lack of info during the game makes it easy to produce upset. | ||
lonelyPotato
Australia158 Posts
On February 24 2013 15:46 iamcaustic wrote: Show nested quote + On February 24 2013 14:34 monitor wrote: I think the ultimate goal is to have the better player winning 100% of the time. Don't even get me started on the CoD's. So yes, there is a "problem" when a game doesn't have a high skill ceiling. It doesn't allow a better player to fully flourish. In sc2 we commonly see worse players beat better players- mostly through cheese, short series, and prepared builds. This isn't the case in long series with mostly macro games, so that is good. There are a lots of things that Blizzard should have done differently in game design. 1) Units that reward micro instead of relying on the opponent to be unprepared. 2) Highground advantage for positioning and micro 3) APM heavy macro and interface mechanics - automine, hotkeys, etc. Uh, Monitor... Brood War wasn't any different. Fantasy, #1 in all the rankings at the time of the KeSPA transition to SC2, had an all-time win rate of 62.41%. Then we look at the current #1 in the SC2 Korean rankings, and we have Life at 62.05%. Even the man who earned the nicknames "Ultimate Weapon" and "God" boasted a 71.74% win rate. Yes, even Flash lost more than 1 in every 4 games, most against statistically inferior opponents, in BW. Moving toward traditional sports, which feature purely physical skill and no information hiding or other such "luck"-based concepts, even the best teams don't win all their games and lose to inferior teams, statistically speaking. Last season, the Vancouver Canucks were the highest-ranked team; they won 62.19% of the time (51-22-9). Life's 2012 record was 181 wins - 108 losses (62.63%). His 2013 stats so far are 8 wins - 4 losses (66.67%). In the sports world, that's textbook consistency. I know you don't like SC2 personally, but frankly I find the general idea of this thread to be faulty. Also, I think people also sensationalize players such as Flash and MVP and assume that they should 100% win every game. Just because you are the "Best" doesn't mean that you can't have bad games occasionally. People just have to realize that the skill difference between someone like Life relative to a code A player isn't all that huge, and when I say not huge I mean Life might only be 4-5% more efficient in his play (It's just an estimate). That's not to say that this game doesn't have a large skill ceiling, but getting an edge over other players that train 12 hours a day is really hard, so if you are able to gain even 1% more efficiency than them.... then that is impressive. | ||
lichter
1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22271 Posts
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MixesQJ
Latvia23 Posts
SC reminds me of poker - the best players will have the best results in the long term but at any given day a newbie can just destroy them (Roro vs. Bear comes to mind as a recent example of this). Why? Because skill is not as dominant factor as many might think. Too many things happen during games and players are simply not capable of controlling everything. | ||
rotegirte
Germany2859 Posts
Here's something else. I am an avid liquibet voter. I've voted on every vote this season. I try to vote for the people I think will win, not hope will win. My correct liquibets is 125 of 236, or 53%. 53%! Only 3% higher than what a person would get if they closed their eyes and picked every answer at random (since all liquibets are 50/50). why hasn't anyone called bullshit on that yet? a person that randomly bets would have had a probability of B(118;236;0.5)=0,05 of guessing half of the bets right | ||
Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
On February 22 2013 15:49 Kennigit wrote: Show nested quote + Is there something inherently wrong with a game where the supposed best players so often lose to players who are widely considered weaker than them? Like, is the skill ceiling not high enough? Is it too luck based? Why don't the best players beat the slightly less good players more often? This has been suggested by pros, writers, community figures since 2008 when we started playing alpha builds. It has been consistently complained about (especially by idra) for years now. Damned that Artosis curse talk again | ||
FeyFey
Germany10114 Posts
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Markwerf
Netherlands3728 Posts
On February 24 2013 19:45 Blargh wrote: Show nested quote + On February 24 2013 19:24 TigerKarl wrote: Why is anyone even posting here? Everything is said and if you think otherwise you should improve your knowledge about statistics. To prove you wrong. See? I just proved you wrong! While statistics are good and well, I think a better discussion, which is still somewhat on-topic would be: Should a competitive game ever have it so a lesser player can win, ever? Shouldn't the better player always win 100% simply because they are better? Obviously, some days you perform worse than others, but that would somewhat imply that he wasn't better on that day. A perfect competitive game should reward only the best player. The GSL finalists are NOT the best players. Would you have ever said that Sniper is the best player, after he won that GSL? I sure as hell wouldn't. Chess does pretty well with this. Players are very consistent at the high levels. There are many many draws, which are okay, but they also play multiple matches. The fact that players lose one match and win another versus the same player seems flawed to me, but it's balanced out (a SC2 pro wins 60% of matches, but do they win 60% of series? That's the more important question!) lol what a retardedly stupid question you ask... If the better player won 100% of the time competition would be useless as everyone would know what would happen... Randomness makes it interesting.. Also people should stop citing chess as some example of a game without luck and the better player always winning.. That is completely untrue.. Just because chess is an open information boardgame doesn't mean it's without luck.. There is a lot of hidden information in the complexity of the game and the openings. If you've played chess a bit more serious you know you can get lucky your opponent plays an opening variant you've just studied well, you can beat much better players by this happening for example. Also the impact of moves is not all known, sometimes through sheer luck your move ends up working out quite well without you knowing it beforehand, which happens just as much at the pro level too... | ||
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