EPTYet Another Normal Mini Mafia - Page 74
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
Beyond stutters it's pretty hard to tell who the next scum would be. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
Dunning Kruger Effect, look it up. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
But if you're town you're terrible and I will gloat over your grave after I lynch you. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
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yamato77
11589 Posts
if by some weird turn of events he does I won't feel bad about it. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
On December 29 2012 02:41 wherebugsgo wrote: anyway enough trolling, but Palmar I do want your opinion on yamato. Beyond stutters it's pretty hard to tell who the next scum would be. Yamato is irrelevant we have no choice but to blindly believe his claim since the setup allows us only a single mislynch. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
How do you think the n1 RB affects the probabilities of a scum bugs? He either was RB'd or claimed it and if he was RB'd he is town, the likelyhood of scum holding their n1 roleblock isn't high enough for me to be comfortable voting Bugs over Vivax when Bugs has started to play the game. Also based on Roleblocks Vivax claimed his late on the night Imp died was odd, though after CT I'm hesitant to make reads based on host error. Remember, an alive Palmar is probably a scum Palmar. His sheep play this game is scary, this is not the town Palmar I know. Remember when Palmar said he would claim miller as scum if he could get away with it? Consider his Vig claim tomorrow if he is still alive. Reason to think Palmar is town though: d1 jailing. Scum would not have sent kill through Palmar when he was most likely to be JK'd in the game. based on roles and mechanics I think Palmar is town. based on his play I think he is scum. Town Palmar is not the kind of guy to sit around on n3 not saying anything and just sheeping along. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On December 29 2012 04:46 Palmar wrote: Yamato is irrelevant we have no choice but to blindly believe his claim since the setup allows us only a single mislynch. Palmar, name a scum. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On December 29 2012 04:46 Palmar wrote: Yamato is irrelevant we have no choice but to blindly believe his claim since the setup allows us only a single mislynch. ok, then name someone who you think is scum (other than stutters) | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
No I don't care. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
Do you want to be lynched? Yam, that isn't all. But the RBs are a point in the favour for both town Bugs and town Palmar. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
On December 29 2012 07:17 Promethelax wrote: Do you want to be lynched? Yam, that isn't all. But the RBs are a point in the favour for both town Bugs and town Palmar. Sure. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 20:01 Palmar wrote: The only problem with the Vivax/Bugs scumteam theory is that there is no conceivable route to victory for them. Even if we mislynch stutters tomorrow, one of the mafia would be lynched in lylo and due to bugs's defending of Vivax, the other one would almost certainly be lynched in the 2v1 lylo. Which seems too simple, and well, if Bugs is actually scum, it's too easy. He doesn't play scum to lose. So, it's obvious we lynch into Stutters/Bugs/Vivax tomorrow, mafia will shoot one of the "confirmed" townies tonight. We don't have the time or mislynches available to chase after alternative possibilities like sciberbia and prom, even yamato/morb. Just reading the last day over there's three possibilities as to how scum is playing this: a) Scum is actually derp and hasn't planned for winning the game. Scumteam = Bugs/Vivax b) Scum has a hidden gem in the town "circle". Since we only get 1 mislynch this game this would basically give the game to scum. If Zelblade/Prom is actually scum, we're fucked. c) Scum is already busing and playing for a solo win. This means stutters is scum since both bugs and Vivax are attacking him. The probable idea here being that the credit for pushing the mislynch will allow scum to push later an idea of b) to incriminate sciberbia or prom, most likely. So here's the problem for me. Optimal play in this situation is to lynch stutters tomorrow. if stutters flips town, it will inevitably lead to us lynching bugs/vivax anyway. If he however flips scum, we need to decide how to proceed. Remember that this will give bugs and vivax both "town cred" and leave for example sciberbia looking slightly worse. I really need to think this through. Would appreciate anyone giving their thoughts on how to proceed. @Palmar I'm not convinced that lynching Stutters is the optimal play. I think a Bugs & Vivax scumteam is a realistic possibility I agree with your point that they have no plausible route to victory, but I think this is more due to the fact that town finds them individually suspicious than the fact that Bugs has been defending Vivax. Obviously, scum will not have a conceivable route to victory if town is extremely suspicious of each member of the scum team. The question you have to ask is what alternate play you would have expected Vivax & Bugs to make if they were scum together. Bus each other yesterday? Try to get someone like Promethelax or myself lynched tomorrow? I can't think think of anything that they could have done that would make one of them likely to survive to the end of the game. If Bugs & Vivax is indeed the scumteam, then they are probably just hoping to lynch stutters, bus the shit out of each other after that, and pull some miracle in 3 person LYLO. If we lynch stutters and he flips town Then I think a Bugs & Vivax scumteam is reasonably likely. Would you want to lynch somebody like Morbidius/yamato/Prom/myself over Bugs or Vivax if Stutters flips town? I hope not. if we lynch stutters and he flips scum Then I think his scum partner is extremely likely to be either Vivax or Bugs and we should lynch both of them and win the game. Given that stutters is scum, it would make perfect sense for his Vivax/Bugs scumbuddy to be bussing him in an attempt to get enough town cred to avoid being lynched. In summary, no matter what Stutters flips, I think we should lynch into Vivax/bugs next. And since I think that Vivax/bugs are both more likely scum than Stutters, I think we're better off lynching into them first, and then only worrying about Stutters if we have to. the bottom line In order for a Stutters lynch tomorrow to be the optimal play, there has to be some conceivable scumteam that we could beat by lynching Stutters tomorrow but that we could not beat by lynching into bugs/vivax tomorrow (vivax IMO). I don't see that there is one. What say you? Please not "I don't care" | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
Palmar's Grand list of Wherebugsgo being wrong, bad and useless I don't know if bugs is scum. I hate that even with all the shit I'm about to list up, there exists the possibility that this is just an arrogant and stupid town bugs. How shitty is that? If we were actually discussing a player whose logic I trust I'd be lynching him in a heartbeat, but sometimes you have to account for stupidity, which is why I'm presenting this as evidence, not a reason why you should kill Bugs. Just consider it very, very strongly. If in lylo, lynch him. On December 19 2012 21:11 wherebugsgo wrote: I'm not answering your dumb questions. They're a total waste of time at this stage in the game. Bugs doesn't have interest in attempting to play the game. On December 19 2012 21:37 wherebugsgo wrote: At this point in the game it's not the figuring out of alignments that's the problem. It's publicizing reads that I don't have an interest in publicizing. I have no reason to make public reads that are better off being developed in private. Tainting reads by giving your targets forewarning that they're being watched carefully is generally (I've found) a good way to ruin them, at least on day 1. That's why I like to observe, for the most part, or at least cause some reactions, without putting forth all of my motives. I've said this before in mafia games. The idea what giving up reads as town is somehow not good, is just an excuse and honestly a bit stupid. You see when you tell someone "I think X is town" you force that player then to explain should that read change in the future. The point is that Mafia rarely wants to burn any possible bridges towards mislynches, and demanding reads and an explanation to them is a good way to at least force them to backtrack on their own reads when and if they want to lead mislynches later in the game. If the player in question is town, he should have nothing to hide. Giving up your reads is actually a fantastic way to create discussion, the whole "sit back and watch" thing is stupid and bad town play. On December 20 2012 02:12 wherebugsgo wrote: nice. This is the "I know this guy is not scum, but I'll post some bullshit later...however, since I know I'm wrong I'm going to mention the fact that on day 1 reads are weak, so I don't get raped by town later." ##unvote Toadesstern ##vote Morbidius All evidence points towards me being correct here about Morbidius and thus Bugs is wrong. Is it because bugs is wrong? Or is it because he's scum and thus looking for "easy" attacks on people. Again, I don't know. But remember that I explained in detail why Morb is town in my opinion, bugs did not listen to that and tried to start a wagon on Morb on day 2. On December 21 2012 03:32 wherebugsgo wrote: The fuck is this? Some of these posts are shady as fuck. Particularly this one. On December 21 2012 04:30 wherebugsgo wrote: Fuck this game, you can all lynch whoever. Wiggles will probably flip town. I'll be back around night. Bugs wasn't being any more right about lynch time. There was a pretty strong case against Wiggles that turned out to be correct, yet bugs backtracked on his wiggles read. However he did this at a time it was sure wiggles would be lynched. No idea if that was a very, very good scum play (distancing yourself from a bus) or town play. Once again I'm torn between wrong because bad or wrong because scum. On December 22 2012 17:06 wherebugsgo wrote: Debears is town, you asshats. If he was scum why the fuck would he shoot Toad after pushing him all day? To make it harder for himself? Do you think he would defend himself this strongly if he was scum? (the second one is an actual, genuine question, though I think I know the answer) There are a few things to note. One, Morbidius used Toad's flip to put suspicion on debears. That's something town like to do. Secondly, only a really bad scum team would shoot Toad, or Toad was right about something (or a combination of both). Toad listed morbidius, Vivax, and stutters as probable scum. I'll be looking into those players (as well as promethelax and eywa) today. For now I think morbidius has the strongest chance to flip scum. Just want to point out that he later claimed to have missed something about debears and backtracked on this read, but honestly, bugs once again tried to push a townie (morb) lynch over scum (debears) lynch. On December 24 2012 10:00 wherebugsgo wrote: this guy clearly can't read mafia godfather dying d1 = scum are weak. weak scum lurk. This type of correlation is not genius-level play. This is another terrible idea pushed by bugs. There is no reason to assume a scum team is weak because one of their members fucks up. Hell it could even be a designed bus by a very strong scum team. Maybe sciberbia is the scum and this is designed to fuck over town! The play of one scum player says almost nothing about the strength of the team. No matter how strong a scum team is, I don't think many scum can argue their teammates out of a Palmar day 1 tunnelvision. So maybe the team opted to just let wiggles die. Of course that's not saying the theory could be right, but it's a guess, and not a conclusion you can draw. Not to mention this obviously makes bugs immune to being scum, hehe convenient. On December 27 2012 03:19 wherebugsgo wrote: cool, kill me then. ##vote wherebugsgo This game is not playable as long as town is not willing to accept what I have to say. You didn't even read that, I am 100% sure of that. The ultimate in uselessness. Should honestly be policy lynchable because fuck players who do this. On December 29 2012 02:36 wherebugsgo wrote: you chose to lynch eywa instead of lynching stutters, which effectively prevented us from getting a double lynch. You know as well as I do why double lynches are so powerful. We would have had to flip stutters no matter what, eywa being flipped was simply collateral (due to the forced modkill) The only situation in which we wouldn't have had to kill stutters is if eywa came back before the deadline. That did not happen. Yes, and that's what I'm worried about. Double lynches are powerful for two reasons. a) The important one is that they increase the amount of kills controlled by the town. However in this specific scenario a Double lynch didn't. In both cases town controls exactly two lynches until mafia wins. So the primary strength of the double lynch is negated here. b) Double lynching speeds up information given to town, helping both blues decide their night targets and raising morale for town. If we had lynched stutters or vivax or bugs, sure morale would've been up, but the other argument is void since our blues can be killed and roleblocked forever. So what remains is a slight advantage of having a 4v2 lylo instead of a 3v2 lylo, but at the cost of an extra cycle to discuss, form reads and reach the best possible conclusion. In conclusion: Fuck it, don't lynch Bugs until Lylo. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
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