SpaceX billionaire founder and CEO has an idea. He believes all the missions in Mars by NASA and other agencies are a waste of time. He proposes, with his money, that Mars missions should already start ahead in colonizing Mars, ferrying up to 80,000 people, setting them $500,000 a trip.
The mission will start slowly, with less than 10 people and supplies and equipment. The colony will make use of Mars geology, subterranean ice, and methan and CO2 atmosphere. As the colony becomes stable and sustainable, future missions could carry more and more people.
Accompanying the founders of the new Mars colony would be large amounts of equipment, including machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars’ atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet's subsurface water ice.
The Red Planet pioneers would also take construction materials to build transparent domes, which when pressurized with Mars’ atmospheric CO2 could grow Earth crops in Martian soil. As the Mars colony became more self sufficient, the big rocket would start to transport more people and fewer supplies and equipment.
Musk’s $500,000 ticket price for a Mars trip was derived from what he thinks is affordable.
"The ticket price needs to be low enough that most people in advanced countries, in their mid-forties or something like that, could put together enough money to make the trip," he said, comparing the purchase to buying a house in California.
Musk figures the colony program — which he wants to be a collaboration between government and private enterprise — would end up costing about $36 billion. He arrived at that number by estimating that a colony that costs 0.25 percent or 0.5 percent of a nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) would be considered acceptable.
The United States' GDP in 2010 was $14.5 trillion; 0.25 percent of $14.5 trillion is $36 billion. If all 80,000 colonists paid $500,000 per seat for their Mars trip, $40 billion would be raised.
"Some money has to be spent on establishing a base on Mars. It’s about getting the basic fundamentals in place," Musk said. "That was true of the English colonies [in the Americas]; it took a significant expense to get things started. But once there are regular Mars flights, you can get the cost down to half a million dollars for someone to move to Mars. Then I think there are enough people who would buy that to have it be a reasonable business case."
There are three fundamental questions we can discuss with Musk's plan: 1. Is the plan scientifically appropriate, since the dominant rationale for Mars missions is a) understanding of Martian geology/atmosphere and possibly biology; b) genesis of the Solar System; and c) understanding of life in the universe. Mars colonization is not (yet) a motivator in present missions, and this plan would not only contaminate outputs for all future studies. 2. Is it feasible? 3. If you had the money, would you volunteer, knowing very well the risks of failure, possibly death in space?
1. I wouldn't know - I do not have a very good grasp of the science involved, but I would like to think it is possible with a lot of hard work.
2. I don't think it is feasible right at this current point in time. Perhaps in the future.
3. No way. I like my feet firmly on the ground - have a little trouble with flying so a trip to Mars would just destroy me. Also, Doom has taught me that anything that happens on Mars is a bad idea. I'll leave you guys to your Hell portals thank you very much.
wow.. Sounds really crazy right now. So an average house price in California may be $500k, but people take 30 years to pay that price off, they usually don't have that kind of cash on hand.
Then, I don't think finding 80,000 people willing to leave everything behind and pay a half of a million to do so is reasonable. I am personally not the kind of person who is afraid to leave the nest. I moved 6500km from home, and only get back to visit like once a year, but even I have a problem with the idea that I wouldn't ever be able to visit family/friends again if it takes nearly a year to travel one direction.
And if you have 500k lying around, chances are you're pretty comfortable where you are, monetarily, why would you want to leave that comfort behind for the unknown and hard ass work getting, not only a new country, but a new world, habitable? I'd love to visit space, but finding 80k people meeting his criteria just seems impossible right now.
lol this is one of those things you say to a colleague or a friend. There's no way that he could find anywhere near that many eccentric multi-millioniares that wanted to live on Mars. I mean the whole thing sounds like some kind of silly publicity move to push his companies image as a ... OH WAIT THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT THIS IS LOL.
Guy needs to stop this stuff. This is exactly why we need government run space programs. If businesses were accountable like governments I would have no problem but if NASA said something like this I'd be exasperated then assume it was April 1st.
"Let me pull some numbers out of my ass, then pull a number of customers out of my ass, then let's cut it all together and make a press release"
Not Feasible. Way too much money. And I don't think the domed food source will work all that great. They will still need a lot of food and supplies from Earth for a long time.
However, SpaceX is doing a lot of things for a lot less money than expected.... which is exciting
The main issue with going to mars permanently is not the fact you might die on the way. The chances are really not that great; SpaceX engineers are pretty resourceful, smart, etc. The big issue is once you get there and the colony is not self sufficient; what happens if things on Earth go awry? That colony is going to run out of supplies and food, and everyone is going to die. That is what would scare me.
Edit: Also, those spacesuits won't have NASA on them unfortunately. Try SpaceX
My first thought was that the guy is crazy, but then I realized it's probably a publicity stunt. Considering the scale of the project (80k people on Mars? We can't send even a few people to Mars - and even unmanned missions to Mars have failed like 50% of the time) it would probably cost much much more than 36 billion. It just doesn't make sense to start with such a huge mission at once.
Also, even if the price is correct, that money could pay for a number of unmanned missions which would be of much greater scientific interest - like searching for life on Titan, funding to replace Hubble telescope, etc.
For the people that doubt this is anything but feasible you should watch this video. It's from 1997 where Robert Zuberin thought it was already do able if we change the method and reason to go there. Just as SpaceX is thinking about now.
Robert Zubrin is an American aerospace engineer and author, best known for his advocacy of manned Mars exploration. He was the driving force behind Mars Direct—a proposal intended to produce significant reductions in the cost and complexity of such a mission. The key idea was to use the Martian atmosphere to produce oxygen, water, and rocket propellant for the surface stay and return journey. A modified version of the plan was subsequently adopted by NASA as their "design reference mission".
Disappointed with the lack of interest from government in Mars exploration, and after the success of his book "The Case for Mars" as well as leadership experience at the National Space Society, Zubrin formed the Mars Society in 1998. This is an international organization advocating a manned Mars mission as a goal, by private funding if possible.
Zubrin holds a B.A. in Mathematics from the University of Rochester (1974), and a masters degree in Aeronautics and Astronautics, a masters degree in Nuclear Engineering, and a Ph.D. in Nuclear Engineering — all from the University of Washington. He has developed a number of concepts for space propulsion and exploration, and is the author of over 200 technical and non-technical papers and five books. He was a member of Lockheed Martin's scenario development team charged with developing strategies for space exploration. He was also "a senior engineer with the Martin Marietta Astronautics company, working as one of its leaders in development of advanced concepts for interplanetary missions" (The Case for Mars, 1996). He is also President of both the Mars Society and Pioneer Astronautics, a private company that does research and development on innovative aerospace technologies. Zubrin is the co-inventor on a U.S. design patent and a U.S. utility patent on a hybrid rocket/airplane, and on a U.S. utility patent on an oxygen supply system. He was awarded his first patent at age 20 in 1972 for Three Player Chess. His inventions also include the nuclear salt-water rocket. (Souce: Wikipedia)
I believe that technological development is always characterized by quantum leaps. While technology usually progresses chronologically, logically, and systemically, the real breakthroughs are often those that come out of nowhere or are really outside the bounds of present standards. This for me is the real nature of innovation.
On November 29 2012 22:32 Probe1 wrote: lol this is one of those things you say to a colleague or a friend. There's no way that he could find anywhere near that many eccentric multi-millioniares that wanted to live on Mars. I mean the whole thing sounds like some kind of silly publicity move to push his companies image as a ... OH WAIT THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT THIS IS LOL.
Guy needs to stop this stuff. This is exactly why we need government run space programs. If businesses were accountable like governments I would have no problem but if NASA said something like this I'd be exasperated then assume it was April 1st.
"Let me pull some numbers out of my ass, then pull a number of customers out of my ass, then let's cut it all together and make a press release"
Except that it makes sense. Your idea of space exploration is disturbingly conservative, if not backwards. The future of space projects is in private sector, largely because capital system allows it, or some form of private-public partnership. It would bankrupt the government if it was the sole financier of such missions, or development would occur at an impossible slow pace. Whether he is making a public relations stint is irrelevant, he is willing to put money where his mouth is. The only issues here are scientific, as the OP lists. I am concerned with the first item to. Will the practical (colonization) win over the purist (knowledge of Mars, life, universe) goals?
"The ticket price needs to be low enough that most people in advanced countries, in their mid-forties or something like that, could put together enough money to make the trip,"
I lol'd at that so hard. I will never have that amount of money, problably not even if I save every penny from now on to the end of my life. But I hope this works and we get some people on Mars.
the only point i wanna make is i think it's impossible to grow earth plants in mars "soil" b/c of the superoxides and radiation that's been baked into the soil by the sun. (i may be wrong here)
other than that...hell yea, im already saving my money to go.
LOL... does he live on Mars already. How does he think that the he could find 80000 people that can spend $500 000. First of all the type of people that have that money are going to be older, maybe 40s but most likely in their 50s or later. I don't think they are going to want to bust their asses to build a brand new colony. Do you know how much work that is?
Then there is family. So I make all this money, live with my wife and 2 kids, that is now $2million if I want them to be with me.
So to sum up, you will never find 80 000 people in the 20s-30s (which are the optimal age I'm sure) with $500 000 and willing to leave everyone they love to build a colony on Mars.
No oxygen, no water, dust storm that cover the entire planet, freezing cold temperature. You essentially have to build a giant indoor town. How are they going to power all that? Build a nuclear power plant there?
Might as well buy a piece of land in Alaska or something and build an indoor colony there with that money.
Why Mars? We'd have to bring everything with us to survive to the bottom of a gravity well, where the atmosphere is so thin that we'd waste a lot of energy just getting down.
Much more sensible would be to colonise a large asteroid like Ceres with easy access to water and heavy metals. If we could ship the resources back to Earth it would be extremely profitable, as well opening up the rest of the Solar System to colonisation.
On November 29 2012 22:32 Probe1 wrote: lol this is one of those things you say to a colleague or a friend. There's no way that he could find anywhere near that many eccentric multi-millioniares that wanted to live on Mars. I mean the whole thing sounds like some kind of silly publicity move to push his companies image as a ... OH WAIT THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT THIS IS LOL.
Guy needs to stop this stuff. This is exactly why we need government run space programs. If businesses were accountable like governments I would have no problem but if NASA said something like this I'd be exasperated then assume it was April 1st.
"Let me pull some numbers out of my ass, then pull a number of customers out of my ass, then let's cut it all together and make a press release"
You don't need to be a multimillionaire. You only need $500k. It's going to be a one-way trip anyways. You have to spend around a year on Mars due to launch windows, and months in interplanetary space. Mars only has 1/3 of Earth's gravity. All that time with reduced or zero gravity will atrophy your muscles and bones severely. There's no coming back, you'd collapse under your own weight.
Regardless, I'd love to go. I'd give just about anything to go on an adventure like that.
This would be one of the most tedious and expensive ways to commit suicide.
The thing that irritates me is that the billionaire is saying that NASA and other similar organizations are wasting their time; that we should just go ahead a colonize mars.
This would have to be different from the Mars One program then wouldn't it? Basic concepts are the same: One way trip, expressed purpose of colonization.
Mars One wasn't funded by a single entity though, if I recall correctly it was supposed to be sponsored or funded through live streams in the colony. Is there a mission site for this I am missing?
EPT![[image loading]](http://www.astrosurf.com/luxorion/Images/mars-colony.jpg)
