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DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
On August 17 2012 01:45 marvellosity wrote: Please format your votes correctly or THEY WILL NOT COUNT. Keirathi even posted about it on this page >.< Sorry. ##Vote: Thrawn2112 | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
I think this is a null tell. The important thing to pay attention to is the content or lack of content in a post. I am off to bed now. I will set an alarm and be back in a few hours. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
On August 16 2012 11:31 thrawn2112 wrote: @darthpunk Also it seems to me that confirming somebody is town isn't a waste of time, it will give you new information you didn't have before and you will have a narrower list of who potential scum could be. While it isn't the most important part of the game it isn't useless like you have described. EBWOP: One of the Quotes in my case seems to have been garbled in the formatting stage. This is the correct Quote. | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On August 17 2012 01:58 DarthPunk wrote: This is just... I don't even know. The most hard to read piece of Irony in the thread. If you have a reason to vote Shady why is half your post such garbage? I have made far better arguments against shady and I haven't even voted for him. This is not a case, nor a read, and is certainly not enough to be the none OMGUS part of the post in which you vote for shady. This does nothing to aid in the scumhunting that is occuring. This is Fluff. It is distracting us from being able to clearly read the cases for and against you. As I said earlier, my vote against shady is not just a OMGUS reaction. Throuought our argument, shady kept bringing up the same accusations which to my knowledge I gave reasonable and believable responses to. He ignored my arguments, and continued to make the same arguments over and over. From my knowledge (which is that I am the only one I know 100% is a townie) is that shady is either trying to set me up because he is scum or he is a town player making some of the worst arguments possible. I find it more likely that shady is scum because I really can't see how somebody could make such a bad argument. He even went so far as to say that it should be completely obvious to everyone else in the thread that my actions and ochrow's were coordinated. This claim was based on ochrow and I both putting a FOS on archrun within 30 minutes of each other. This is a nonsensical accusation to make. If I was scum with ochrow and trying to pin suspicion on archrun, I hope that my attempt would be way more subtle than what shady accused me of doing. I also pointed out that beyond the posting time and our both fos'ing the same player, he has given no evidence to support his claim. Anyone could easily use the same type of 'argument' against him, as he and archrun voted against me within 3 minutes of each other. By Shady's standards of evidence, the case for he and archrun being scum is even stronger than his case for ochrow and I being scum. I am not making a case that shady and archrun are both scum for those reasons, nor am I trying to prove that BOTH ochrow and I are innocent. It is just an example to show how truly unfounded shady's case was. The filter posts were a result of me thinking shady is scum because of how he was presenting his argument against me, so I went back through his filter and that was the first thing that leapt out at me as additional evidence of him being scum. | ||
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Jhuyt
Sweden365 Posts
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DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
On August 17 2012 02:21 thrawn2112 wrote: As I said earlier, my vote against shady is not just a OMGUS reaction. Throuought our argument, shady kept bringing up the same accusations which to my knowledge I gave reasonable and believable responses to. It is not an OMGUS reaction? yet your arguments against shady are OMGUS. 'I am voting for him because he doesn't believe me' is OMGUS and is not a reason to vote for someone. Why do you feel the need to preface that your reposes are believable? On August 17 2012 02:21 thrawn2112 wrote: From my knowledge (which is that I am the only one I know 100% is a townie) is that shady is either trying to set me up because he is scum or he is a town player making some of the worst arguments possible. Why do you feel the need to point out you are 100% townie? So you believe shady to be scum or a townie who is making bad arguments against you. That is not a good enough reason to vote for him. The fact is that if you read through the thread there are far better cases against shady than what you are presenting. On August 17 2012 02:21 thrawn2112 wrote: I find it more likely that shady is scum because I really can't see how somebody could make such a bad argument. He even went so far as to say that it should be completely obvious to everyone else in the thread that my actions and ochrow's were coordinated. This claim was based on ochrow and I both putting a FOS on archrun within 30 minutes of each other. This is a nonsensical accusation to make. If I was scum with ochrow and trying to pin suspicion on archrun, I hope that my attempt would be way more subtle than what shady accused me of doing. I also pointed out that beyond the posting time and our both fos'ing the same player, he has given no evidence to support his claim. Anyone could easily use the same type of 'argument' against him, as he and archrun voted against me within 3 minutes of each other. By Shady's standards of evidence, the case for he and archrun being scum is even stronger than his case for ochrow and I being scum. I am not making a case that shady and archrun are both scum for those reasons, nor am I trying to prove that BOTH ochrow and I are innocent. It is just an example to show how truly unfounded shady's case was. I agree that the post timing should not be used as a read of some sort. However there are far more valid cases against you (my own for example) and the post timing was only one argument, and in no way constitutes Shady's entire case against you like you are implying. On August 17 2012 02:21 thrawn2112 wrote: The filter posts were a result of me thinking shady is scum because of how he was presenting his argument against me, so I went back through his filter and that was the first thing that leapt out at me as additional evidence of him being scum. The filter posts were nothing. You have brought back policy talk in the past and are doing so again. All this does is distract from the real cases and confuse the thread. This is not cause for a scum read in my opinion and shady has done far more suspicious things than ask people to post their filters day 1. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On August 17 2012 01:58 Solarsail wrote: Sorry I missed DP's new post. That is very strong. I would like to see Thrawn defend that. Now that DP's argument is there in full with evidence, the line "mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not?" is really, really out of place. The last post mkfuba made before I posted that quote, was this: On August 16 2012 02:14 mkfuba07 wrote: So I've just quickly read through what I missed while asleep. I have a few appointments to get to, so this will be my only post until later this evening. My read on Shady right now is slight townie. He was the driving force behind most of the first day so far, and has been sticking his neck out the entire time. I get null reads from the cases he presented, because though I disagree with the evidence for them, they promoted discussion when there was very little to discuss. He gets a townie point because of this discussion promotion and activity. I waited to post my reads on YourHarry because I wanted to avoid an OMGUS reaction, but most of my feelings on him had been posted by GK. I really wanted to see his reasoning for dropping the votes on Solar. Since he's posted that now, I'm a strange point in my read on him. In response to his vague comments I started to believe that he had just read his role PM (since he delayed reading them in both D1s of XXIII) and realized that Solar was his Mason partner. That seems like a legitimate reason to hint at it without outright saying it, though it will make everyone suspicious of him. What I find most suspicious is YH's willingness to believe in a Solar/GK mason team with so little evidence of it. The post he quoted from GK "defending" Solar was a mirror of my views on Solar - that he's playing in a way that will distract us from true scumhunting for the rest of D1. I don't think GK's phrasing implied greater knowledge than he should have had as a vanilla townie, as I came to the same conclusion. As a result, I see YH's strong townie read on Solar as YH behaving as if he has more information than he should. Since he isn't mason, that only leaves scum. FoS YourHarry Solar's posts have me leaning towards a townie read for him. Pointing out how thrawn's defense of him may be considered scummy seems like a very town thing to do. He's not taking someone's defense of him as evidence of townie-ness, but being suspicious of his motives. I'm not sure I agree with his method of building discussion (in reference to his earliest, trolly play), since his first few posts could cast him in a suspicious light for the rest of the game. But if it was his plan to do so to build discussion in the first place, then he knew the risks and took them for the team. Mkfuba puts a FoS on YH, with his reasoning being that YH was acting as if he had more information than anyone else concerning his read on solar and gk. I then posted: On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote: Policy? A few people started talking about policy at the beginning and we never actually came to an agreement on that because of solar's trolling. Can we say whether or not we are going to FOS lurkers? Of course this doesnt not mean an automatic lynching, but it will help to keep everyone posting so that we can all get better reads. My vote is that yes, this policy should be put in effect, even though we have almost wasted the opportunity to do so. Concerning the YH topic: 3 possibilities immediately come to mind: One, that YH is being honest about him thinking that solar and gk are masons. That will explain basically all of his scummy sounding posting earlier in the game. Two, that he and solar are masons. This would explain his strong conviction that solar is town, and could also explain why he posted like he had information to hide. Three, YH and solar, or maybe just YH is scum. This would also account for the cryptic way he was posting. The only part that I'm having trouble with, is that 4 minutes after voting for me for being suspicious of shady, he unvoted me and changed his vote to solar. 21 minutes later is when according to him, he came up with his 'solar as mason' theory and unvoted again. So if YH is scum and solar is scum, why would YH ever vote for solar in the first place? It could be a sneaky manipulation but i doubt that is the case. This makes me believe that no, YH and solar cannot BOTH be scum. YH's quick changing of votes is what I'm currently looking at to see if I can make any reads as far as YH is concerned. At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum. Solarsail Just to confirm what I'm thinking, do we all trust solarsail's account of his first few posts, that he was trolling to get responses? I'm assuming we all do? Myself, I believe him. I don't think a player who posts like he initially posted would be able to post how he is posting now unless they were trolling. Initially he was the most scummy player, but at that point in the game less than half the players had even posted. As time went on I began to think that no he's not scum, but he's a town player who just doesn't understand what the tone of this game is supposed to be. Honestly solar you were posting like you had just come in from a sc2 tournament thread, it was very hard to know what to make of that. IMO you actually caused more harm than if you would have allowed the discussion to remain on policy talk. The first few pages of posting were very chaotic and full of people making baseless accusations set by the tone of how you chose to play the game. Yes, I do think that myself and maybe some other people are able to make reads off the situation you created, but I think that those reads could have come regardless of your trolling. mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not? My first paragraph under the YH topic is a little difficult for me to understand right now. I'll admit that I was in no way giving a clear picture of my train of thought. As I posted the night before I made my posts about YH, I was not sober that night. If you are curious about this then go check what other threads I post in as it might cause you to believe that I was likely to be telling the truth about not being sober. Despite not being sober I did lurk in the thread for 3 or 4 hours before sobering up after a quick nap. I take notes whenever I read a new post, and my scattered train of thought after my nap was probably brought on by taking notes in a scattered frame of mind before the nap. The 2nd paragraph contained the majority of my thought process concerning YH. Some people thought YH was scum because he was posting as if he had additional information, but I saw a different perspective. YH said he acted the way he did because he made a self-admittedly weak read into gk's post. I then said that I was previously nursing a weak read that he and solar were either masons or scum. I had at that point abandoned my weak read, which caused me to be trusting of YH's claim that he also made a weak read about potential mason status of solar. I had made the same mistake as YH claimed to make, which is why I was inclined to believe YH. However, me making a weak read does not confirm that YH was telling the truth in admitting to making a weak read. I was willing to accept that YH was town, but since mkfuba had recently expression sucpicion of YH I wanted to know if my argument was sufficient to convince mkfuba, and if it wasn't then I would obviously want to know the reason why. I guess the lessons to be learned are to give reasoning behind my posts, and uh .... don't read the mafia forum if I'm not sober. | ||
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Solarsail
United Kingdom538 Posts
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Btw: Lynch is plurality, which is something I'm actually pretty happy with. It means everyone can vote their own candidate without fear of a no lynch. There's no reason or excuse for people to sheep other people's votes to secure a majority. Everyone can vote their strongest read  .Regarding Thrawn: I will look at Shady's case summary points one by one and describe my own assessment. On August 17 2012 01:29 Shady Sands wrote: -snip- Here's the summary of the Thrawn case: 1) Lots of soft-defenses of multiple players through the first half of D1 2) Jumping on the Archrun train with poor justification ("non-contributing lurker") 3) Chainsawing a neutral player (Z-Boson) for attacking the player who he used to justify the Archrun FoS (Ochrow) 4) Continuing to FoS Archrun even after he posted content, sheeping Ochrow, the same player who he was defending against Z-Boson 5) Coordinating *all* his reads with Ochrow (including the ones on YH and Solar, the two other contentious players in the game) 6) Threatening to OMGUS lynch me if I don't reread his defense and reconsider my accusations against him (based off the exact opposite justifications that he used to accuse Archrun) 7) OMGUS voting me anyhow 1) So I see he comments on a few people who came under suspicion early on, including: Solarsail, YourHarry, and Ochrow. He more or less decides all of them are town. I feel he was a little hasty in doing so, but if you look at his wording, it seems his logic (at least for YourHarry) is that he doesn't believe what said person has mentioned so far is scummy. Therefore, he's town... Not the best logic to be following, but I can at least see where he's coming from and understand a (bad) townie motivation. The main post I believe Shady is referencing is below: + Show Spoiler + On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote: Policy? A few people started talking about policy at the beginning and we never actually came to an agreement on that because of solar's trolling. Can we say whether or not we are going to FOS lurkers? Of course this doesnt not mean an automatic lynching, but it will help to keep everyone posting so that we can all get better reads. My vote is that yes, this policy should be put in effect, even though we have almost wasted the opportunity to do so. Concerning the YH topic: 3 possibilities immediately come to mind: One, that YH is being honest about him thinking that solar and gk are masons. That will explain basically all of his scummy sounding posting earlier in the game. Two, that he and solar are masons. This would explain his strong conviction that solar is town, and could also explain why he posted like he had information to hide. Three, YH and solar, or maybe just YH is scum. This would also account for the cryptic way he was posting. The only part that I'm having trouble with, is that 4 minutes after voting for me for being suspicious of shady, he unvoted me and changed his vote to solar. 21 minutes later is when according to him, he came up with his 'solar as mason' theory and unvoted again. So if YH is scum and solar is scum, why would YH ever vote for solar in the first place? It could be a sneaky manipulation but i doubt that is the case. This makes me believe that no, YH and solar cannot BOTH be scum. YH's quick changing of votes is what I'm currently looking at to see if I can make any reads as far as YH is concerned. At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum. Solarsail Just to confirm what I'm thinking, do we all trust solarsail's account of his first few posts, that he was trolling to get responses? I'm assuming we all do? Myself, I believe him. I don't think a player who posts like he initially posted would be able to post how he is posting now unless they were trolling. Initially he was the most scummy player, but at that point in the game less than half the players had even posted. As time went on I began to think that no he's not scum, but he's a town player who just doesn't understand what the tone of this game is supposed to be. Honestly solar you were posting like you had just come in from a sc2 tournament thread, it was very hard to know what to make of that. IMO you actually caused more harm than if you would have allowed the discussion to remain on policy talk. The first few pages of posting were very chaotic and full of people making baseless accusations set by the tone of how you chose to play the game. Yes, I do think that myself and maybe some other people are able to make reads off the situation you created, but I think that those reads could have come regardless of your trolling. mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not? 2) Yeah, "non-contributing lurker" may not be the best motivation, but Archrun was definitely the guiltiest among them at the beginning, when Thrawn's initial accusation of Archrun was made. 3) This is a pretty weak case point. I see where this came from, and the clarification seems to be justified. Honestly, I don't see any real scumminess from this post. It's down below for everyone's benefit: On August 16 2012 08:29 thrawn2112 wrote: Z-Boson, are you thinking that Ochrow has a read on NH that he isn't explaining? What I got from that quote is that ochrow thinks NH could be town. The opening statement of that quote you referenced was "So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him" followed by "he too is giving off a town feel." I don't understand if you are saying Ochrow has a town or scum read on NH. 4) As best I can tell he jumps on the "lurker lynch train." He then focuses on Archrun for being the worst lurker. He then sees Archrun's first big non-lurker post, and tunnels harder on him after feeling the case is weak. This is certainly not the best way to play town, but I could understand how Thrawn might have done this as town. I in fact did a similar thing when I first started my first game in NMM XXII (as a VT). I said "I'm lynching a lurker." I saw the guiltiest guy of lurking. Then when he posted some stuff and became a little less lurky, I still tunneled in on him because I felt what he said was scummy... 5) I'm not a fan of connection-based theories for scum reads, but there is some uncanny similarities between the two's stances. The post timing (aka exactly the same time) of their similar stances on both YH and solar early game is the most suspicious. I'd dismiss it as two people posting independently, but considering YH "town" was hardly the most mainstream idea. Yet both do it at the same time. They also manage to comment on two of the same people in that post. This strongly implies to me they might be sharing a QT. But I would still consider it possible they are masons. 6 & 7) OMGUS-ing is an emotional response that Thrawn could easily do as either town or scum. This is a null read in my opinion. Another point I noticed reading Shady's earlier posts on this: Regarding asking questions during "slow times": This is generally a neutral read to me motivation-wise. Both as scum and as town Thrawn could be asking questions. Shady's been doing the same kind of thing, so it's a bit ironic to me this was one of his earlier case points against Thrawn. Honestly, I felt some of Thrawn's questions were made with the intention of pushing discussion on his suspects (specifically the YourHarry top read question). This to me is actually a pro-town trait. So in summary, Shady's fifth case point in his summary is most valid, and I could understand people voting Thrawn on that point alone. However, I don't feel any of the others really are enough, even combined, to be voting for Thrawn. I might go so far as to say that Thrawn and Och are more likely masons than scum, since even as a newbie scum it should be pretty obvious that tying each other's viewpoints together as closely as they have is suicidal. However, as masons, they would have no problem coming to a consensus on and aligning their views. In fact, this could be a great thing to do as they can double their influence on town. I love plurality lynch. It means I can keep my vote on Juhyt without dreading a no-lynch, who is still my strongest scum read. | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On August 17 2012 02:39 Jhuyt wrote: Thrawn, I have one question for you which I feel you haven't sufficently answered: What made you feel like Arch was more scummy than Me, Stutter, Golbat or the other lurkers up until the point you decided that Arch was the scummiest? This keeps getting brought up, and I keep answering it over and over again, and nobody except solar has responded to any of my answers. Here is one of my several responses to this question: On August 16 2012 10:55 thrawn2112 wrote: I am focusing on Archrun because none of the other scum reads have had very much merit. He is the person who has given the smallest amount of opinion on anything, which means that up until he does it will be impossible to get a scum read on him. I also looked at other people with low post counts, and Archrun was the only one who had not made a claim about anything. This makes him the most suspicious player out of all the lurkers. All I am doing is asking him to post more, and to share his opinions on what has happened so far. Of course I agree that focusing on scum reads is more important than focusing on who has posted the least, but when, as goodkarma said, the conversation is only happening between a handful of people scum reading is difficult. At that point in the game there were a few people who were lurking. I didn't see any good scumhunting cases being made, so I decided to try and get the lurkers to post more. I went through all their few posts, and archrun's were the ones I found to be most lacking in pro-town content. Thus he is the best target of all the lurkers. I did not ignore the other lurkers, but being most suspicious of him I pressured him the most. In my FOS of Archrun, before anyone had expression suspicions as to why I was targeting him specifically out of all the lurkers, I said: On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote:Archrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting. The lurkers before that post were gobalt, archrun, jhyut, ochrow, and stutters. Gobalt had accused me of being scummy, and had expressed belief in solar's innocence during the troll posts Jhyut made the comment about his outside experience with solar and he softly accused yh of being scummy Ochrow said he thought solar was town and that shady had read too much into solar's posts Stutters did not think that shady was right. Stuters didnt think that solar's post was intended as a soft accusaton of stutter's post Archrun avoided making any reads at all, he was the only lurker to do this and therefore he was my most suspected lurker. | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
Since Thrawn seems to be quite the target, I'm going to post my thoughts on him: 1) The SK posts seemed a bit suspicious, but when I read them I got a rather null read. I was obsing a game recently (my apologies for not knowing the exact game name) where it seemed like the entire first 24 hours was spent discussing what a theoretical Tracker should do if he even existed in the game. Asking a question of the more experienced players regarding SKs, and giving his own point of view, doesn't send off any major alarms in my head. He dropped the issue immediately after people said that they basically agreed with him, and he hasn't personally brought them up ever since. 2) Regarding his actions in the Solar issue, I tended to agree with him along the way. I'm not sure I'm getting why you think this is scummy, could you explain? His posts since that point are what caused me to be suspicious of him, but I never quite understood the reasoning behind your initial interrogation. This quote appears to summarize his thought process quite nicely, and since it was exactly the same as my thoughts I actually got a slight townie read after it. He was suspicious at the right times, and when something didn't make sense he questioned the reasoning of whoever raised that point.3) At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum. This quote makes me lean townie as well. Though I have stated that I didn't agree with the original argument behind YH's reads on solar/GK, Thrawn again comes to the same conclusion as me: that the entire case comes down to that single "Sigh..." comment. Though I was (and still am) suspicious of YH after that case, Thrawn's disagreement over this doesn't reveal alignment to me. The way he's thinking things through is very similar to how I did during my only previous vanilla townie game.4) The whole Z-Boson/Ochrow situation also has me leaning town. During that entire situation, Thrawn makes efforts to alleviate the confusion that's been caused by Z-Boson's misread, when he could have just sat back and let the misunderstanding grow out of control (especially seeing how readily people in this game have been jumping on single posts to make full cases). With this, I have a firm townie read on Thrawn. 5) I don't see any real evidence of Thrawn and Ochrow coordinating their posts. The entire thing feels contrived to me. This makes me feel that this bandwagon that's started on Thrawn is at least partially supported by scums. This, in turn, gives me an even stronger townie read on Thrawn. 6) His subsequent suspicion of Shady is completely valid in my eyes. If Thrawn is town, then as he's pointed out, the only information he can be 100% sure of is his own alignment. Since he knows he's town, he has a right to be suspicious of someone so zealously pursuing lynching him. His vote isn't instantly OMGUS just because Shady voted for him before. Thrawn has actual reasons for being suspicious, and Shady hasn't, even in my eyes, done a good job of addressing them. Thrawn has been tunneled pretty hard for one of the first cases to have any significant reasoning behind it (the one against Archrun), and I find that incredibly suspicious. While most other players are making cases based on such huge stretches that I find it hard to believe they came to the conclusions they did, Thrawn is being hit hard for providing a case that was based entirely within the context of the thread itself. In short, I truly think that a lynch on Thrawn would be a mislynch. I have some reads on other people that I will try to get up as soon as possible, but I have to leave to take care of school issues right now, and don't want to post half-assed theories without being able to clarify them right away. I will say that I am likely to support a relative lurker lynch, especially given that most of the discussion has been about a player who I've made it clear I have pretty strong town reads on. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
If it wasn't already obvious to you: waiting until the last minute to cast your vote is very anti-town. You're not going to give us any chance to assess your voting case arguments when you stall like this. Get it on the forum. As town, you shouldn't be afraid of being wrong. And if you're scum, don't worry. Do this again on day 2 and expect an FoS coming your way. @Mkfuba: You might have to settle for casting your vote now, even if your explanation is rushed. You only have ~5 1/2 hours before the deadline... | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
##Vote: ShadySands I don't have much time to clarify this atm, but based on my current tally of the votes, there are 3 for thrawn, and 2 for shady. I've made it clear how I feel about thrawn, and in turn that I find Shady's tunneling of him extremely suspicious. I don't want thrawn lynched, so I'm voting for Shady not only because he is suspicious to me, but is also currently the only way to avoid a mislynch on Thrawn. I really have to head out now, but I should be back before the final tally. | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On August 17 2012 03:30 mkfuba07 wrote: 6) His subsequent suspicion of Shady is completely valid in my eyes. If Thrawn is town, then as he's pointed out, the only information he can be 100% sure of is his own alignment. Since he knows he's town, he has a right to be suspicious of someone so zealously pursuing lynching him. His vote isn't instantly OMGUS just because Shady voted for him before. Thrawn has actual reasons for being suspicious, and Shady hasn't, even in my eyes, done a good job of addressing them. Thrawn has been tunneled pretty hard for one of the first cases to have any significant reasoning behind it (the one against Archrun), and I find that incredibly suspicious. While most other players are making cases based on such huge stretches that I find it hard to believe they came to the conclusions they did, Thrawn is being hit hard for providing a case that was based entirely within the context of the thread itself. You are exactly right about why I voted for shady. I was being accused of putting a spotlight on which was from my explained reasoning, the most scummy lurker. Shady kept drilling the same accusations over and over and the main focus of his case was on that I put a FOS on archrun, and his claim that ochrow and I were scum and working together to cause a mislynch of archrun. Someone above this post said that a more reasonable explanation of the odd timing of ochrow and my posts is that ochrow and I are masons. In someone else's position I would be way more likely to believe that thrawn and ochrow are masons rather than scum, and I really cant see why shady is being so aggressive over what from my perspective, is a completely fabricated case. You hinted that you think the push to lynch me is likely to be somewhat a scum directed action. This is the conclusion I came to and I voted for Shady because he was (once again from my perspective knowing that I am town) being the most illogical and relentless about it. | ||
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Jhuyt
Sweden365 Posts
The lurkers before that post were gobalt, archrun, jhyut, ochrow, and stutters. Gobalt had accused me of being scummy, and had expressed belief in solar's innocence during the troll posts Jhyut made the comment about his outside experience with solar and he softly accused yh of being scummy Ochrow said he thought solar was town and that shady had read too much into solar's posts Stutters did not think that shady was right. Stuters didnt think that solar's post was intended as a soft accusaton of stutter's post Archrun avoided making any reads at all, he was the only lurker to do this and therefore he was my most suspected lurker. Ok, now I know your motivation for Archrun and reading the post by mkfuba07 I don't think you're as scummy anymore. There went my entire thought process of this day, yippie. The more I think of it the more I find that either Shady or Thrawn is scum. But since my basis of suspicion against Thrawn is basically gone I really can't vote for him. I think this post + Show Spoiler + On August 17 2012 03:30 mkfuba07 wrote: Trying to get into school is running me ragged, so this will be my only post for the moment. If anyone has specific questions they'd like me to answer, let me know so I can get to those as soon as possible (preferably before the lynch). Since Thrawn seems to be quite the target, I'm going to post my thoughts on him: 1) The SK posts seemed a bit suspicious, but when I read them I got a rather null read. I was obsing a game recently (my apologies for not knowing the exact game name) where it seemed like the entire first 24 hours was spent discussing what a theoretical Tracker should do if he even existed in the game. Asking a question of the more experienced players regarding SKs, and giving his own point of view, doesn't send off any major alarms in my head. He dropped the issue immediately after people said that they basically agreed with him, and he hasn't personally brought them up ever since. 2) Regarding his actions in the Solar issue, I tended to agree with him along the way. This quote appears to summarize his thought process quite nicely, and since it was exactly the same as my thoughts I actually got a slight townie read after it. He was suspicious at the right times, and when something didn't make sense he questioned the reasoning of whoever raised that point. 3) This quote makes me lean townie as well. Though I have stated that I didn't agree with the original argument behind YH's reads on solar/GK, Thrawn again comes to the same conclusion as me: that the entire case comes down to that single "Sigh..." comment. Though I was (and still am) suspicious of YH after that case, Thrawn's disagreement over this doesn't reveal alignment to me. The way he's thinking things through is very similar to how I did during my only previous vanilla townie game. 4) The whole Z-Boson/Ochrow situation also has me leaning town. During that entire situation, Thrawn makes efforts to alleviate the confusion that's been caused by Z-Boson's misread, when he could have just sat back and let the misunderstanding grow out of control (especially seeing how readily people in this game have been jumping on single posts to make full cases). With this, I have a firm townie read on Thrawn. 5) I don't see any real evidence of Thrawn and Ochrow coordinating their posts. The entire thing feels contrived to me. This makes me feel that this bandwagon that's started on Thrawn is at least partially supported by scums. This, in turn, gives me an even stronger townie read on Thrawn. 6) His subsequent suspicion of Shady is completely valid in my eyes. If Thrawn is town, then as he's pointed out, the only information he can be 100% sure of is his own alignment. Since he knows he's town, he has a right to be suspicious of someone so zealously pursuing lynching him. His vote isn't instantly OMGUS just because Shady voted for him before. Thrawn has actual reasons for being suspicious, and Shady hasn't, even in my eyes, done a good job of addressing them. Thrawn has been tunneled pretty hard for one of the first cases to have any significant reasoning behind it (the one against Archrun), and I find that incredibly suspicious. While most other players are making cases based on such huge stretches that I find it hard to believe they came to the conclusions they did, Thrawn is being hit hard for providing a case that was based entirely within the context of the thread itself. In short, I truly think that a lynch on Thrawn would be a mislynch. I have some reads on other people that I will try to get up as soon as possible, but I have to leave to take care of school issues right now, and don't want to post half-assed theories without being able to clarify them right away. I will say that I am likely to support a relative lurker lynch, especially given that most of the discussion has been about a player who I've made it clear I have pretty strong town reads on. ##Vote: Shady Sands I have to go for the next couple of hours so I won't be here for the conclusion of the day, see ya later. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Shady, regarding your accusation of thrawn, are you suspecting Thrawn and Golbat are scums together, because of their weird interactions? The first part of your accusation, Shady, I do not disagree with. Why is it scummy to ask me who I thought are top scum candidates? It would have made sense to ask such question since most of our conversation was based on who I thought was confirmed townie in Solar. Also, his analysis of the possibilities of what happened. Logically I see some holes in his argument, but attempting to analyze what had happened systematically I think is a town tell. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
##Vote Archrun Here's why I think Archrun is our best lynch (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489&user=155910 - Full Filter for easy reference): On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote: This is my first time playing, but I did read XXIII in preparation for this game and the policy seemed effective, because even if the scum is being active everyone has a a good sample of posts to analyze and hopefully make more accurate reads. As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. So far he has a total of six posts in this game. I don't find that particularly suspicious but what I do find suspicious is that he looks active throughout without actually looking for scum. In his first post he says the policy from XXIII and that as a VT he promotes "any policy that helps us catch scum." Although you can't expect scumhunting this early, I wanted to point out his noncommittal attitude. On August 15 2012 10:20 Archrun wrote: To follow that point up, I feel like the scum threat is a lot stronger than SK because they are organized and know who to attack. A SK in my eyes is like a scum with only one person in it that can attack other scums independently. So if any exist in this game they shouldn't become an issue until later in the game. Now he has two more posts for that day. The first one is agreeing with both Shady and thrawn's statements that a SK is a non-issue at this point for the town. This has already been agreed upon and he didn't contribute anything new with his post except that a team of 3 is more dangerous than a 1 man team. His only other post before disappearing for 24 hours is soft defending Thrawn from Shady. Fast forward 26 hours and we get to the point that really stood out to me and caused me to look into him more closely. First his case on Solar and Jhuyt: On August 16 2012 13:58 Archrun wrote: Sorry for being lurky, not intend just became last minute busy. As far as reads go I am going through the thread at will give my thoughts on the case against YH, thrawn, and GK as soon as I can, but right now I want to make a ##FoS: Jhuyt and Solar Case: Jhuyt puts: then Solar puts: May main concern is two-fold: 1) Jhuyt claims Solar is just an emotional by his previous TL post history, which later Solar claims to be a deliberate act. Futhermore, skimming through Solar TL post history it doesn't seem that emotionally based. In fact, it is closer to his current professionalism. I believe Jhuyt defense of him is a blatant lie. 2) Solar questions why Thrawn is defending him, but not Jhuyt. Other people defend Solar has a bad townies, and to shape up his posting, while Jhuyt explained Solar behavior (falsely) as that is the type of person solar is. This leads me wonder why would Solar question Thrawn's motives and not Jhuyt? This plays out four ways: If Jhuyt is townie and Solar is townie then Solar should of suspected his motives like he did with thrawn or both of them are mason and there is no need to question each others motives. I believe them being Masons is possible. If Jhuyt is townie and Solar is scum then why would jhuyt lie about Solar's posting? Futhermore, why wouldn't Solar call Jhuyt out like he did with Thrawn? The only why I can see is to put focus on one person. This seems dishonest. nor does it allievate Jhuyt roll. under those ground I reject this possibility. If Jhuyt is scum and Solar is scum then either a bus play could happen(which didn't) or they could protect each other. They could directly protect each other by offering counter arguments against both of them, (which only Jhuyt did in that one line lie) or indirectly by not bringing attention to each other(which would be a play that Solar made. I believe them both being scum is possible. Finally, if Jhuyt is scum and Solar is townie then by lying Jhuyt post (which occured before Solar) puts focus on Shady and potentially has some a townie on his side. Solar likewise either became a townie by his side(doubtful, because he didn't defend him against Shady's accusation) or Solar would of question his motive like he did with thrawn. I reject this possibility as stated above. This leads me to believe Jhuyt and Solar are Scum or Masons. Thoughts? Concerns? Did I miss something? I don't think Solar missed Jhuyt post because he was corresponding with Shady the entire page and part way through there correspondences Shady replied to Jhuyt. I want to emphasis I haven't look at the evidence agaisnt Thrawn thoroughly so I have no argument on him as scum or town at the moment. This appears to be his largest contribution to the thread. He has a premise and uses some facts to back it up. Most of the post is WIFOM and doesn't really contribute anything. The part I want to emphasize is the first part of his two-fold concern. "May main concern is two-fold: 1) Jhuyt claims Solar is just an emotional by his previous TL post history, which later Solar claims to be a deliberate act. Futhermore, skimming through Solar TL post history it doesn't seem that emotionally based. In fact, it is closer to his current professionalism. I believe Jhuyt defense of him is a blatant lie. 2) Solar questions why Thrawn is defending him, but not Jhuyt. Other people defend Solar has a bad townies, and to shape up his posting, while Jhuyt explained Solar behavior (falsely) as that is the type of person solar is." Now fast forward six hours to his next post: On August 16 2012 19:32 Archrun wrote: Alright after looking into Solar claim about a history with him and Jhuyt I can believe that Jhuyt was under the impression Solar could be emotionally. Therefore, one of my premise is incorrect and I must remove my claim towards them. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I look into evidence about Thrawn and there was 3 main points against him: He was fluff, motive concerns by Solar and Z-Boson questioning of him. I came to the conclusion that he has shown some dodgy behavior. The beginning of the thread there was a lot of posts claiming Thrawn to being very fluffy, but the beginning was very chaotic and Thrawn was the only one. His posted definitely, picked up later. When Solar questioned Thrawn motive for defending his anti-town behavior Thrawn claims he changed Thrawn from Scummy to town who doesn't know the tone of the game. No where does he explain what prompted him to change his opinion from scummy to bad townie. Z-Boson questioned Thrawn about why did he choose me and not other lurkers and an accusation that Thrawn dodged Golbat. Thrawn has not explained himself to Golbat's concern yet. Thrawn rebuttal was mine had the most merit. Thrawn proceed to explain why I was a good candidate, but not why the other lurkers where not as good candidates. For those reason I am currently at ##Vote Thrawn2112 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ochrow was the first to claim against me and soon afterwards Thrawn join in. Therefore, I believe Z-Boson question on why should I be the focus over other lurkers stand towards him. Also, why focus on lurker lynching instead of scum hunting? did you not have a read on anyone as scum? I don't feel like it was deflective because I brought up something that seemed wrong until solar set it straight(which I checked out). However, most people agreed that scumhunting is more than lynch lurking and there was quite a few people that had YH pegged as scum. If that is the case won't the safer play be to remain silent if I am scum? Also your example of it being beneficial for me to be to discover if they are masons assuming I am scum is unfair, because if I am scum then they would be either my partner which I am busing out of the blue or they are townies. If I am scum then I would want to make them look like scum, but in my argument I did not give a support to them being scum. But if I am a townie they discovering they are scum was be useful cause we would know who to lynch or if I was a townie knowing they are Masons would remove 2 people off a possible list of suspects leaving every townie that is not them 10 people to look at instead of 12. At the very start of this post he immediately refutes his previous case by saying "Alright after looking into Solar claim about a history with him and Jhuyt I can believe that Jhuyt was under the impression Solar could be emotionally." At this point from the start of the game until this post he has spent over 30 hours without contributing anything while appearing very active. Now moving forward to his case on Thrawn, the meat of it is in that Thrawn doesn't "explain what prompted him to change his opinion from scummy to bad townie." However if you read the quote regarding it in Archrun's post it is explaining exactly why. Just to confirm what I'm thinking, do we all trust solarsail's account of his first few posts, that he was trolling to get responses? I'm assuming we all do? Myself, I believe him. The rest of his case is just sheeping off of Solar and Z-Boson's claims against Thrawn.His very last post is a bunch of quotes that I honestly have a hard time following but again he sheeps off of another player's accusations. Tl;dr - Read the post and see why Archrun has been hiding his lack of contribution while appearing active. | ||
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