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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
On May 03 2012 10:54 johnnywup wrote: you JUST said that you thought that risen being scum confirmed ottox to you because of the switch you are rushing your posts. I am saying that it is NOT ILLogical to think ottox is scum because of the last minute switch... | ||
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
this post is assuming your claim is true. maybe i am rushing my posts. the point is there was 0 reason to not claim and 0 reason to lynch someone who wasnt confirmed scum absolutely 0. i can't think of a single reason why you wouldn't claim. you let town sheep a confirmed scum and theres no way a town would let that happen. If a confirmed scum is pushing someone you thought was scum, do you think somethings suspicious there? maybe? it makes no sense. another thing to address is the timing of your claim. As scum, it makes perfect sense really. If you let town sheep a jk because they successfully blocked a shot, then you lose your kp. Risking losing a GF to lynch the JK in order to mislynch and keep your KP makes perfect sense. It was a big risk and it didn't pay off. At the very least, if you failed, you'd be lynched and your Goon wouldn't be, so you'd have a KP for at least tonight. I'd be willing to bet you're a GF and BM is the last Goon. ##unvote ##vote Bill Murray | ||
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[UoN]Sentinel
United States11320 Posts
Mattchew is claiming vigilante and unless he's trolling it's a good chance he's one of the two godfathers. Because what does vigilante flip when he dies? I'm going to vote for Bill Murray because that is who I jailed tonight. Now granted, if I were scum, I'd rather sit and not kill, then Bill Murray gets lynched as townie and you get a free kill, BUT that's a waste of a night. It boils down to this. For the sake of this post, let's assume that mafia has to place a kill and BM is not goon: If the mafia decides not to kill someone, we lynch Bill Murray, and then tonight they kill another townie. If the mafia does order a kill, they don't know who we're likely to lynch and have to play more conservatively for another night because the obvious candidate, Bill Murray, is not the goon. However, while the first scenario looks more appealing at first because they kill two townies, I don't think it's a good deal. For example, they could place a kill on me. If they killed me, we could have questions: Did I really jail BM? If BM is not the goon, who is? Neither one of these could be answered because I was away when the night ended, and I am no longer alive. TL;DR: If BM is not goon, it's a bad tradeoff for the mafia to withhold their kill and make it look like I did it. Therefore, I will assume that BM is in fact the goon, that I have successfully jailed him, and that he will be lynched today. ##Vote: Bill Murray | ||
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PaqMan
United States1475 Posts
Assuming Mattchew's claim is true then that's the most likely scenario. What I don't like is why would Sentinel fake-claim. | ||
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
More serious note: The reason not to claim was posted in every guide ever, you keep town on a need to know basis. If ottox was to about to not get lynched again, I would have claimed immediately and ensured his lynch. He was to be lynched and me not claiming actually worked to the benefit of town. By waiting on my claim, I confirmed someone many (including myself) thought was scum and was an easy mislynch in BM. If I had claimed earlier, scum would have just shot me at night and we would have been left lynching only sent and risen and probably mislynching BM. Actually as scum, the timing of my claim would probably make more sense if I were to post it closer towards the end of the day so that people don't have as much time to read my filter, discuss whether or not its true and discuss the 3rd scum option. A question I have for you, is why are you so quick to believe Sent's claim with basically no argument, even though ottox posted a completely logical reason for you not to believe him? | ||
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PaqMan
United States1475 Posts
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
On May 03 2012 11:20 PaqMan wrote: BM is Scum. Mafia didn't use their KP to make it look like Sentinel jailed BM , gaining him town cred. Assuming Mattchew's claim is true then that's the most likely scenario. What I don't like is why would Sentinel fake-claim. scum knew they would have to fake claim at somepoint cause of there only being 1 blue left and having the shot hit risen. the useless JK that all of a sudden jails everyone's scum read and he turns out to be goon probably seemed the most believable | ||
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PaqMan
United States1475 Posts
On May 03 2012 11:25 Mattchew wrote: scum knew they would have to fake claim at somepoint cause of there only being 1 blue left and having the shot hit risen. the useless JK that all of a sudden jails everyone's scum read and he turns out to be goon probably seemed the most believable What night did you shoot Risen? | ||
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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PaqMan
United States1475 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
On May 03 2012 11:23 Mattchew wrote: Actually as scum, the timing of my claim would probably make more sense if I were to post it closer towards the end of the day so that people don't have as much time to read my filter, discuss whether or not its true and discuss the 3rd scum option. A question I have for you, is why are you so quick to believe Sent's claim with basically no argument, even though ottox posted a completely logical reason for you not to believe him? I'll actually look into ottox's argument, i didn't really put much thought into it. as for the first part, claiming at the end of the day would make you look waaaaaay scummier, and we'd end up lynching a "town". anyways, if we mislynch today, we're at lylo, 5v3 yes? that means that lynching BM is the best course of action for both of your claims, believe it or not. Let me explain. If BM flips goon, then we lynch you, as it confirms Sent as a Jailkeeper and you as a liar. This means we get 2 scum without losing without fail. We won't be at lylo tomorrow in this situation. If BM flips town, we lynch Risen and Sentinel, as it confirms Matt as a vig and Sent as a liar. This means we also get 2 scum without losing without fail. We will be at lylo tomorrow, but that doesn't really matter since we get 2 scum either and it'll be favorable for town from there. If BM flips GF, we act the same as if he flipped town, except we catch all 3 scum without fail. So there we have it. Any objections to this plan? | ||
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PaqMan
United States1475 Posts
On May 02 2012 07:18 Bill Murray wrote: There is no point in you jailing at all. You're going to die tonight. On May 02 2012 07:23 Bill Murray wrote: I'm going to kill Risen tonight, btw I'm vig On May 02 2012 07:32 Bill Murray wrote: lol jk im green mattchew is scum for not replying to me claiming vig Yeah if he's town why is he shitting all over us. | ||
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PaqMan
United States1475 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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PaqMan
United States1475 Posts
On May 03 2012 11:43 johnnywup wrote: Paqman, what do you think of my plan? I think it just won town the game I like it. Only thing I see is that with both options, we still have a missing 3rd scum that we need to find out. | ||
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
On May 03 2012 11:38 johnnywup wrote: I'll actually look into ottox's argument, i didn't really put much thought into it. as for the first part, claiming at the end of the day would make you look waaaaaay scummier, and we'd end up lynching a "town". anyways, if we mislynch today, we're at lylo, 5v3 yes? that means that lynching BM is the best course of action for both of your claims, believe it or not. Let me explain. If BM flips goon, then we lynch you, as it confirms Sent as a Jailkeeper and you as a liar. This means we get 2 scum without losing without fail. We won't be at lylo tomorrow in this situation. If BM flips town, we lynch Risen and Sentinel, as it confirms Matt as a vig and Sent as a liar. This means we also get 2 scum without losing without fail. We will be at lylo tomorrow, but that doesn't really matter since we get 2 scum either and it'll be favorable for town from there. If BM flips GF, we act the same as if he flipped town, except we catch all 3 scum without fail. So there we have it. Any objections to this plan? johnny we are at 5 - 3 now. We are in lylo because we DONT ACTUALLY HAVE A JAILKEEPER. We have to lynch scum today On May 03 2012 11:37 PaqMan wrote: How can you explain BM's behavior the entire game? No reaction to the fact that Town wants him lynched, he's not even trying to defend himself or anything. Yeah i don't buy your claim that he's town. On May 03 2012 11:38 PaqMan wrote: Yeah if he's town why is he shitting all over us. Read this post and thread for why BM would do this and then read how I wanted to policy lynch him. He is known for being batshit as both town and scum. It is almost impossible to read him as scum and it is ALWAYS impossible to read him as town. This is why I said that him and St. Daniel made good day 1 day 2 lynches cause they are impossible to read. (BM for being crazy, St. Dan for not posting) | ||
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
If BM flips town, its 6v3, then 5v3 after night kill. then we get a free scum in risen and sent, so its 5v2 then 4v2 after NK, then 4v1 and 3v1 after that NK (assuming the 3rd scum is the goon), which should be good enough to find the scum. if BM flips goon its 7v2, no NKs available. then next day we lynch matt so its 7v1, which should be unlosable for town. if BM flips GF, its 7v2, then after NK its 6v2, then we lynch sent for lying about being jk so its 6v1 (5v1 after NK assuming 3rd scum is goon) All 3 situations are incredibly favored for town. | ||
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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