I think Nani will go thru, I have a good feeling.
I don't follow the GSL too closely, but I think I'm not wrong in saying Supernova and Virus aren't really top notch players, and the Genius games are PvP, which Nani is definitely capable of taking.
I think every other group would be harder, but this is still a pretty good test for Naniwa.
I hope he can go thru, because I value him as the most promising foreigner to one day win GSL Code S. (Stephano is of course sick as f***, but he's been talking about quitting since he bought SC2.)
Nani is sharp mentally, I think one of the most intelligent SC2 players generally. He's not calculated (I'm probably using the word wrongly, but try to see thru it), or intelligent in a robotic way like Idra, but Nani is like a shark that can switch gears and cut you from an angle if you hold a shield up. While Idra is a Shark that puts the 'Okay' meme face on if you put a shield.
His hunger for success also seems like most intense, like, in all SC2. And he's got the willpower to train A LOT.
If he goes thru, it'll be huge, because even if he doesn't manage to hone his skills quickly enough to be a legitimate contender for the Code S title this season, he'll be seeded in the next GSL Code S, which gives him another solid chunk of time to improve and stabilize as a Code S regular. From there he can only go up if his motivation sticks with him.
Foreigners are what makes GSL exciting for me, I'm a sucker for David vs Goliath stories, especially when there's hundreds of Goliaths in your way, and you're fighting in Goliathland.
Good luck Nani