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On April 05 2012 02:21 wherebugsgo wrote:
Snarfs who would you most like to kill today?
Is there anyone outside of Bluelightz and Cephiro/syllo you find suspicious? Please explain your reads.
I'd kill Wiggles. I posted my thoughts on him for VE yesterday and VE said that everything I said pointed to him being scummy. I think VE's a smart guy and he was probably on to something and I haven't seen any new material from Wiggles that makes him any less scummy than he would have been yesterday.
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Yeah, he's chosen to ignore my request for reads and he's flip flopped about Bluelightz as well.
You've already pulled Bluelightz, correct? Would you rather push Cephiro or Tobon?
I think we need to get town on the same page here relatively quickly. The only person I'm waiting to hear from is layabout; if he gives a solid opinion that's in agreement with what I currently think is true then we're probably on the right track.
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Ah, appareantly the daypost didn't contain the positions after all, my bad for my false claim. For some reason I recalled seeing it in one of Ace's posts. But good that got clarified up, as it certainly makes Bluelightz look slightly different.
Acro: I don't really know what more you want to expect. I've already said many times the best case scenarios, why do you keep asking for more? You gain an item for town, a basically confirmed townie, and at least 1 scum kill. (Of course, in theory it is possible that I am syllogism's scumbuddy, but how likely is that? Me asking to be pushed near certain death and use my ability to bus my scumbuddy?)
wbg: Wiggles has a relatively short filter, but what I can make of it, he doesn't show much actions that would make me lean scum on him. His play however has so far been very careful, and he hasn't taken an active stance of pressuring scum. So far he is null to me, but I expect him to start pressuring the people he suspects, as he will not get scum killed by quietly humming aside and agreeing, while asking for pieces of information.
Has anyone noticed the lack of layabout by the way?
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On April 05 2012 02:35 wherebugsgo wrote:
Yeah, he's chosen to ignore my request for reads and he's flip flopped about Bluelightz as well.
You've already pulled Bluelightz, correct? Would you rather push Cephiro or Tobon?
I think we need to get town on the same page here relatively quickly. The only person I'm waiting to hear from is layabout; if he gives a solid opinion that's in agreement with what I currently think is true then we're probably on the right track.
I'm honestly not sure on who to push at this point. The more Cephiro posts the more reckless he seems which makes me not want to trust his plan whether he's town or scum.
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On April 05 2012 02:37 Cephiro wrote:
wbg: Wiggles has a relatively short filter, but what I can make of it, he doesn't show much actions that would make me lean scum on him. His play however has so far been very careful, and he hasn't taken an active stance of pressuring scum. So far he is null to me, but I expect him to start pressuring the people he suspects, as he will not get scum killed by quietly humming aside and agreeing, while asking for pieces of information.
This is exactly what VE was pointing out as being scum Wiggles and why he should probably die.
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What I can't reconcile though is that rarely are scum so in-your-face as Cephiro is, and if they are they usually cause a lot of disruption. Cephiro doesn't seem to be trolling us or trying to cause disruption, and it's no secret there is a scum between him, syllo, and risk. In addition he has pointed out a couple of things that I don't think scum would have pointed out. It's true that he could be scum, and if he is, he's been playing very well so far.
The thing though is, IF he's scum, this is a very risky proposition for him, because it ensures he dies after syllo flips town. You agree with that? Now my question is, why would scum put themselves at such great risk just to trade 1 for 1 with someone else?
Worst IMO is that two of them die and flip town.
What's stopping me from pushing Cephiro is that the possibility of him having a scum role that benefits from this still exists. Based on the knowledge we have (which isn't much) it is a better proposition to simply straight up kill syllo, because we have no clue what pushing Cephiro will do. however the pushing of syllo relies on the assumption that syllo is scum, which makes Cephiro far more likely to be town. So in that case we should consider Cephiro is actually telling the truth and push him anyway. in other words, since the basic assumption is the same, it may be better to just push Cephiro after all.
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Worst thing town can do today is split up PoPs and not lynch any potential scum. Which is why people should pull Bluelightz.
By this logic, you should probably also push me, even though I'm town. Personally I'd prefer that we all push Syllo.
I read Cephiro as town, but I'm getting less and less enthused about his plan, just because we're so much in the dark (literally and figuratively) and I don't want to potentially mess things up. With this setup and all these powers, simpler is better. Push scum.
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Cephiro why is it that you cannot roleclaim if you want us to believe you are telling the truth?
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On April 05 2012 02:46 wherebugsgo wrote:
What I can't reconcile though is that rarely are scum so in-your-face as Cephiro is, and if they are they usually cause a lot of disruption. Cephiro doesn't seem to be trolling us or trying to cause disruption, and it's no secret there is a scum between him, syllo, and risk. In addition he has pointed out a couple of things that I don't think scum would have pointed out. It's true that he could be scum, and if he is, he's been playing very well so far.
The thing though is, IF he's scum, this is a very risky proposition for him, because it ensures he dies after syllo flips town. You agree with that? Now my question is, why would scum put themselves at such great risk just to trade 1 for 1 with someone else?
Worst IMO is that two of them die and flip town.
What's stopping me from pushing Cephiro is that the possibility of him having a scum role that benefits from this still exists. Based on the knowledge we have (which isn't much) it is a better proposition to simply straight up kill syllo, because we have no clue what pushing Cephiro will do. however the pushing of syllo relies on the assumption that syllo is scum, which makes Cephiro far more likely to be town. So in that case we should consider Cephiro is actually telling the truth and push him anyway. in other words, since the basic assumption is the same, it may be better to just push Cephiro after all.
I agree that Cephiro is probably town. Like I said though, it just seems like he hasn't fully thought out what scum might have the ability to do to him. Suppose we push him to the edge and then he gets roleblocked? Then we've wasted a bunch of pushes and we're going to have to waste a bunch of pulls to get him back. Then we're going to have to somehow come up with more PoPs to kill syllo.
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On April 05 2012 02:47 Tobon wrote:
Worst thing town can do today is split up PoPs and not lynch any potential scum. Which is why people should pull Bluelightz.
So are you going to pull Bluelightz?
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I could roleclaim, but I'd much rather do it after I've killed syllo. The reason is that if I roleclaim, the mafia will have knowledge of how my power works, and may be able to countermeasure it. I am fairly sure that they are unable to stop me, but I would rather not take a risk and let a basically certain scumkill go to waste.
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On April 05 2012 02:54 Snarfs wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 02:47 Tobon wrote:
Worst thing town can do today is split up PoPs and not lynch any potential scum. Which is why people should pull Bluelightz. So are you going to pull Bluelightz?
Already did, here: link
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There was a day roleblock on Palmar yesterday; what's to say that they can't use it again?
Or the freeze power?
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On April 05 2012 02:56 Tobon wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 02:54 Snarfs wrote:On April 05 2012 02:47 Tobon wrote:
Worst thing town can do today is split up PoPs and not lynch any potential scum. Which is why people should pull Bluelightz. So are you going to pull Bluelightz? Already did, here: link
Ah, sorry. Thanks for the link!
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On April 05 2012 02:56 wherebugsgo wrote:
There was a day roleblock on Palmar yesterday; what's to say that they can't use it again?
Or the freeze power?
As far as I know, they were both effects of the same ability. (The Nullify one). Due to the restrictions in my own power, and based on restrictions in certain abilities in the last game, I am fairly sure that nullify is limited enough that it won't be able to stop me. If I am wrong, I will die and you have confirmed syllo as scum. But we should be able to get the item before that for sure, and Palmar did not mention that nullify would prevent item usage, so I would still be able to use that in favour of town, even in the worst-case-scenario.
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+ Show Spoiler +On April 05 2012 01:18 Cephiro wrote:Going to filter quotes to try and reduce the wall of text that is going to happen. My 5 scumreads: syllogism, prplhz, cascades, Acrofales, Mattchew+ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 16:35 Acrofales wrote:
Good morning. Had a quick glance through the thread and I am quite opposed to Cephiro's plan. I just don't trust the guy. If we believe risk.nuke's claim (and I still do) that means either Cephiro or Syllo is scum. Atm I'm leaning slightly to Syllo, but just plain statistics say we shouldn't bet on Cephiro. Pretty much everybody else has better chances of not being scum, so until Syllo is dead and confirmed red, I am not cooperating with anything Cephiro proposes.
Gonna read the rest of the thread now. I understand it's dark (and full of terrors). I can obviously get behind the bluelightz pulling. I have to get to work, but when I get there I'll read the thread more carefully and decide what to do (probably pull bluelightz). God you are flip-flopping fast. Do you want to know why I find this hilarious? Out of everyone in the game, only the ones that are in the 5 people i suspect to be scum have gone out and made a case on me. Are you actually that afraid of me, or are you trying to make me look bad by trying to make me look like I'm just OMGUSing?
Actually, you ARE OMGUSing. No town can have a reasonable doubt that you're town without being confirmed scum? How the hell does your logic work? I completely admit to switching my read on you 180º, but it has two clear reasons. The first is that I thought you were town, because I thought Sbrubbles was scum. Now that he's confirmed town, that leaves you and Syllo as scumspects.
Taking filters up until your crazy plan into account, I think Syllo is slightly more likely than you to be scum, but in comes reason two: your hairbrained plan, in which you refuse to explain the benefits. Let me put it this way: after all your intimations about a town-aligned masterplan and assuming you are town, if scum can stop you, they will stop you, so you might as well tell us all the effects of your plan (but leave out the details of how, if that will stop scum from interfering). Your paranoia against explaining more than "Syllo will die" and "it's good for town" made me, and is continuing to make me suspcious of your motives.
So, in closing, I don't really know which of you two is scum and I would rather not go along with a possible scumscheme, as it is almost certainly not to town's advantage.
+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 16:53 Acrofales wrote:
Let me phrase that a bit better: we have to take into account the very real possibility that Cephiro is scum.
If he's scum and we send him up there he gets:
1. An item
2. To activate whatever dastardly ability he has that requires him to be in the incineration zone (if I let my imagination run wild I can think of quite a few rather nasty ones, such as increase the size of the incineration zone). Because it's dark, we won't even know what he's doing until it's too late.
If he's town and we send him up there we get:
1. An item
2. To fulfill his masterplan of which we do not even know the rewards. Cephiro said that it helps town and probably gets Syllo killed.
While I like the town rewards and could probably get behind a Syllo kill, the rewards for scum are unknown, but probably better. Given the, lets say 40% chance that Cephiro is scum, the risk is just way too high. As said earlier, my plan is way in favour of town. The worst case scenario for town is that I die before we get to use the item, and my death will confirm syllo as scum, so 1:1 trade. Best case scenario, I survive and deliver you 2 scum kills. Or are you actually proposing that after seeing a nullify ability & darkness ability, that I could be some some sort of godlike superscum and get half the town killed by going into the incineration zone? A sacrifical mechanic would be far more likely than that.
Is it so unlikely that scum has a power to... say... increase the size of the incineration zone by 3 positions? Especially if it's conditioned on getting into the fire? Given the darkness we have no clue how far we are from the incineration zone, but I'm sure that would get quite a few townies burned to a crisp. That is the worst somewhat balanced power I can think of, but Ace has more experience and could've thought up any number of strange powers.
As I stated in the quick post, your best and worst case are preconditioned upon YOU BEING TOWN, which is an assumption I am unwilling to make until Syllo is dead.
+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 16:56 Acrofales wrote:
So, Cephiro: will your plan have any other benefits than killing Syllo (which we really don't need your masterplan for) and getting you the item (which I don't really want to do at this point)? Read what I said, I did actually bring this up earlier as well but you clearly chose to ignore it.
All i find in your filter is that it has town benefits and Syllo will die. Which is about as weak as an assurance can get. Thanks for nothing.
+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 19:09 Dirkzor wrote:
I think Cephiro's plan suck. Any plan we made yesterday was fucked and it will be the same today. (and the item is not even in the equation as the item suck. Its like a shiny objects that people really can't wait to dig up but it always turn out just be the opener from a soda can.)
I would like people to push Syllo. The fact that scum killed Palmar/Sbrubbles (or one of them) and not syllo is disturbing. Palmar had done shit all so killing him over Syllo makes no sense. I'm assuming Sbrubbles was a town hit becase the only reason I see scum killing Sbrubbles is if Syllo is indeed town. Risk's claim was/i believable even when poorly executed by him.
Mattchew is just a oneliner machine who follows whatever crazy plan anyone cooks up to appear to be helping town. If you haven't read, you will not need to save me out of the incineration area, which means you will be able to use your pulls to insta-kill someone by pulling them all the way down. Why would you push syllo, when you can push me and achieve the same? Or would you rather see syllo have the item? I can understand if you wanted to pull him, by pushing him especially after I've told my plan is just.... retarded. Also, agreed on Mattchew. For the love of god though, please read syllogism's filter and show me that he's been even trying to scumhunt. He hasn't done anything valuable for the town yet.
We could pull Syllo and he wouldn't get the item. Why are you so fixated on pushing? As for his scumhunting, I agree, he has been completely utterly useless.
+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 19:32 Acrofales wrote:Okay, I have read through the thread. The day lasts 48 hours. Why all the rush with pulling Bluelightz? I thought we agreed after yesterday to not spend our PoPs so hastily? I think Bluelightz is almost certainly scum, but I am far more interested in getting the whole Syllo/Cephiro/risk.nuke mess sorted out. Can we wait with the bluelightz pulls until we've figured out a plan for that? I'm still waiting for Cephiro to come up with a better explanation of why his plan benefits town (and as I explain below I am now actually very suspicious of him). Instead of his plan, I propose both Cephiro and Syllo get pulled off the bottom just to be sure. A 1:1 trade is generally good for town and the only chance it's not a 1:1 trade is if risk.nuke was lying, in which case he gets lynched tomorrow. I have gone over Syllo and Cephiro's filter with a comb. Lets start with Cephiro: I find his assertions of why his plan is townie increasingly scummy the more I look at them. He has a LOT of filler asserting that he's town and we should listen to him. Do I need to refer to the OP of jubjub mafia about why this is completely pointless posting? You can't prove your town by asserting it and the increased repetition is just making me suspicious: who are you trying to convince with this? You get in a bitch fight with Syllo, which serves NOBODY. We are all almost certain that one, or both of you are scum and you two squabbling over it is completely useless and just clogs up the thread. On to his reason for not revealing any details of the plan: Show nested quote +On April 04 2012 14:24 Cephiro wrote:
If I provide my full role and plan, then it is very likely to backfire. However, if we have enough townies to co-ordinate to do it swiftly, then I will do that if that's an absolute must. It's for the best of town if I do not, and I would claim right after.
Okay, nobody wants the details of HOW it works, just WHAT it does and why that benefits more than just pushing Syllo (or actually, both of you) off the cliff. Your reluctance to say anything other than "it benefits town and will get Syllo dead" is not making me like your plan at all. Next, I don't understand how he is not afraid of the nullify thingy that got Palmar stuck up there and his explanation of why not seems extremely dubious: Show nested quote +On April 04 2012 13:41 Cephiro wrote:
Also, what do you others think about the nullify abillity? I have my reasons to believe it is very limited, at most 2-shot, most likely oneshot. If anyone can tell something about queue positions, you should come forth with the information as well, as I cannot see town getting hurt more than having a benefit of it. Pray tell us your "reasons to believe", oh enlightened one! Is it because it's a scum ability and this is a scumslip? He also seems in an incredible rush to get this to happen before people have time to think it through. In fact, the one redeeming quality is that, if he's scum, I would've expected other mafia to get this bandwagon going, but that's too much wifom for me. On to Syllo: yesterday I thought Sbrubbles was more likely to be scum than Syllo, but things have changed. Taken without what seems to be a serious scumslip by Cephiro, I would almost certainly label Syllo scum now that Sbrubbles flipped town. If we ignore, as he asks us to, his timing on the D1 PoPs, he has contributed a grand total of nothing to this thread. Some speculation on BM's roleclaim is the grand total of his scumhunting. Everything else is filler: he shows presence without actually doing anything useful. He has a somewhat useful dialogue with WBG, but it is only about why he isn't scum, no real contribution at all. Additionally, the same accusation of a giant bitchfight with Cephiro can be leveled at him: useless filler to pad his filter. My opinion: we pull both of them off the cliff to ensure no mistakes. A 1:1 trade is good for town and, given their postings, we might even have two mafia here. First, the point about me somewhat constantly saying I am town. I don't see what's wrong with that. I know I am town and I have no reason to hide it either. Would you rather have me type in conditional every single time? There is no point for me to speculate that I could be scum in every message of mine as I know I am town, and you know it too. So you don't want a roleclaim but you still want to know what my ability does? Well, I'll make it simple for you. It gets scum killed.You also blame me for cluttering the thread up with syllo. Sure, that may be slightly true, but if that's the only way I'm going to convince you guys of getting syllo killed, then so be it. I'm here to kill scum, not to play diplomatics. Also I found it hilarious how you use the same arguments on me as syllogism did. You both keep pointing out how I am not afraid of being nullified, and trying to find out why. Why would you try to find out the reason unless you were scum trying to stop me? You couldn't be much more obvious. Especially since you all use the same poor arguments on me.
The thing about people confirming they're town is more of a psychological meta-argument for me. People tend to try to confirm their lies more than the truths. They are confident enough in the truths that they don't need to repeat them. Note, I am not a psychologist, but I picked that stuff up somewhere and it stuck (maybe even a TV show).
Okay, it bugged me, I looked it up. It was Goebbels, famous nazi propagandist who said "repeat a lie often enough and it will be believed".
I think I've said often enough that "getting scum killed" is all very well, but seeing as your scum reads are basically "everybody who is against my plan is scum", that is pretty damned dubious. Care telling us how many scum you'll get killed and preferrably WHO it will get killed (in addition to Syllo)? If it's just Syllo, I ask you once again, why should we push you up there, rather than just pulling Syllo off the edge? You keep refusing to answer that question. Also, pushing Syllo is pretty risk-free too: we wait for lots of people and pool our pushes. Those that can't get used are refunded (like happened to WBG's push on Palmar on D1).
+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 20:15 syllogism wrote:
It doesn't seem possible to even kill ceph today as assuming the nullifying power can be used more than once, scum will just nullify him after we've wasted PoPs on him. Even if they can't do that, he may not be lying about having some sort of power that allows him to switch places in the queue. Look at this gem of a post by syllogism. His only post when he checks the thread is about trying to place suspicion on me. I repeat, he has not and is clearly not going to do anything useful for the town. Is it that hard for you all to see that he hasn't been scumhunting at all?
No. I think there's a pretty good chance he's scum. If you hadn't cherrypicked my post, you would have discovered that all by yourself. However, that is not enough to exculpate you and until Syllo is confirmed scum, there's a considerable chance we were wrong. Helping you achieve something that could be a scumscheme thus seems needlessly risky at this point. We have things well in hand without some crazy plan.
[spoiler][quote]
+ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 20:16 cascades wrote:
Cephiro you complain about Syllo speculating about mafia powers that might need pop to activate, then you go ahead and speculate that its unlikely there's no mafia framer?
More importantly, you also softclaim that implies syllo is mod confirmed red. You backed out of it after people called you out, since you still need to have powers to get yourself out of incineration somehow. Doesn't excuse the scummy softclaim.
I am really curious about the plan now. I want to hear it. You have to justify better before we help you. There's a chance you scum in our eyes.
You've heard the plan and all there is to it. Do you have a reason to believe there is a mafia framer then? Also, you claim that I complained about syllo's speculation about scum powers that may need PoP to activate. This is false however, as I was only asking him questions to specify what he means. Why are you trying to make it look bad for me?
The rest of the post is about bluelightz. I have already stated where I was wrong in understanding his ability. You say there are better people to lynch than bluelightz. I agree: you and Syllo. Who, other than Syllo and yourself, is currently a better target than bluelightz? Your list includes cascades, prplhz and Mattchew (other than syllo and myself). Mind making a case on anyone other than Syllo, that is NOT based on our unwillingness to promote your plan?
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I'm back on 47, but I want to remark on something Wiggles said. I, personally, would be mad if someone claimed the Palmar hit. SBrubbles, however, looked pretty scummy
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On April 05 2012 02:56 wherebugsgo wrote:
There was a day roleblock on Palmar yesterday; what's to say that they can't use it again?
Or the freeze power?
the number of kills last night, unless we have an S.K.
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Alright, I think this is the solution: we push Cephiro to the item slot. If he gets frozen, we push syllo (we should have enough to push both). Any remaining pushes will go on Tobon AFTER it is confirmed one or both of Cephiro+syllo is dead (hopefully syllo)
If the freezing power exists still, no matter who we push scum will freeze the player and make our efforts fruitless. Thus ultimately I imagine we'd need to push both players. If we push syllo and then scum freeze syllo, we then have to rely on Cephiro getting to the item, but if he's roleblocked at that point we lose even more pushes. If we force a roleblock on Cephiro then we can still pull him back to safety and push someone else toward the fire.
Anyone who does not push according to this plan at this point needs to have a very good reason for it. If you have questions, ask now. I intend for syllo, Bluelightz, and Tobon to all die today.
We can potentially swap Tobon for someone else like mattchew, prpl, or Wiggles, but I'd much rather push Tobon because Nemesis already started a push on him, and he is just as scummy.
Here goes nothing.
##push Cephiro
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On April 05 2012 02:25 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 02:21 Nemesis wrote:On April 05 2012 02:13 wherebugsgo wrote:
Yo nemesis, why did you hulk smash Tobon so early? Why didn't you wait to discuss it?
At this point I lean scum on Tobon but he's lower on the list of "needs to flip" than, for example, syllo or Bluelightz. Flipping all 3 could be a dangerous proposition. I say we continue pulling Bluelightz and we decide soon whether to push Cephiro or push someone like Tobon.
There's also a strong chance we could push both, but then the question remains of whether to push Cephiro first or kill Tobon first. Because it makes it easier to push him and actually makes him a real lynch candidate as very few people seem to be looking at him. I'm pretty sure he's scum at this point as the only thing that he has really done this game is rolefish. You're probably right, and I could be overly worried simply because we haven't properly flipped anyone yet. I'm most concerned with getting that first scum killed because that'll at least give confirmation that we're on the right track. Perhaps I just lack confidence. I don't want to split the votes too much, but at the same time I want to kill 3 people today (syllo, Tobon, and Bluelightz). I'm really curious about this Cephiro thing and I'm very close to just pushing him as well.
I can get with the lynch candidates. I just don't know why we want to go with Cephiro's plan for that. We have the almost-confirmed townie if Syllo flips red IN ANY CASE (otherwise we lynch Cephiro first thing tomorrow and thank the gods we didn't go along with his plan). Why take needless risks in pushing someone who has a very real possibility of being scum up to wherever he wants to go?
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