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How cursed are we?
It has been 20 hours since replacement and kronhjort hasn't posted and all that Paperscraps has posted is a couple of welcome lines and
"I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow."
@Ceph, I am still waiting on your reads.
@Jitsu I am assuming you are sticking with Cats and Blurry?
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Well it's been an awfully quiet night, I guess I will post my current reads soon. (Will not be in-depth).
Hopefully the replacements will have caught up on the thread and join in the action asap.
And a totally offtopic note: I realized I've written over 10k words on this so far. Could use all that productivity on studying...
On January 09 2012 11:49 bkrow wrote:What is up town!? So when they say Newbie Mafia <--- that's me! But i will do my best to catch up as much as possible! (Only 30 pages LOL! Time to use that ALL button ) Good lynch on Sheth - i just can't picture the manner bear being scum though :p
On January 09 2012 11:50 bkrow wrote:Lol at the arrow point to mafia - i was meant to be accentuating the "Newbie" part
Totally offtopic, but I laughed my ass off at this. Nice start!
On January 09 2012 14:44 Paperscraps wrote:Hey Everybody, Glad to be here. I have been "semi" keeping up with the thread, but I will need to read through the filters to get a better read on people. I definitely plan on being more active than my predecessor. I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow. Your opinion about Cats?
As for now, my positive reads:
Probulous - Town Jitsu - Town
Gonzaw - Slightly Town
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On January 10 2012 06:46 Probulous wrote:How cursed are we? It has been 20 hours since replacement and kronhjort hasn't posted and all that Paperscraps has posted is a couple of welcome lines and Show nested quote +"I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow." @Ceph, I am still waiting on your reads. @Jitsu I am assuming you are sticking with Cats and Blurry?
Talk about nice timing. Will get into the rest of my reads soon. For once this way around.
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EBWOP: Are there any certain persons you want me to concentrate on?
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Yes, AnxiousHippo/Bkrow.
I am iffy about Cats right now because he at least is actively participating and geniunely looks like he wants to contribute. Yes, his contributions have been terrible but I am having trouble deciding whether he is really bad mafia or really bad town. The biggest mark against him aside from his washy play and Sheth's support of him is his attempts to defend Sheth.
He was the last to vote for Sheth and only when Sheth told him to, so there is plenty of evidence pointing to him being scum. The problem is I could easily see Sheth picking on a guy who clearly has no clear plan on how to play and making him appear wishy washy. We call him out and he tries to take a stand against us to show he is town His quality of posting has picked up which leaves me in a really akward spot.
So in short I could be persuaded to vote for him but I am more interested in the lurkers. If we kill Cats we still and he flips scum we still have to find the last one. So that is my mission. Gretorp/paperscaps have nothing to read, whilst Xeris/Paperscraps look pretty scummy from Xeris' play and Sheth's adamant defence of him.
Hippo/Bkrow however is still pretty null to me. He started as a newbie town but as the game went on became more and more scummy, I like that Bkrow has been posting but his posts have had a few inconsistencies in them.
So by process of elimination what are your thoughts on Hippo/Bkrow?
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I forgot Blurry but you can see my read on the previous page. He hasn't contributed much but what he has done has been fairly towny. The fact that he voted for Sheth so early is a mjor point in his favour.
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On January 10 2012 06:46 Probulous wrote:How cursed are we? It has been 20 hours since replacement and kronhjort hasn't posted and all that Paperscraps has posted is a couple of welcome lines and Show nested quote +"I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow." @Ceph, I am still waiting on your reads. @Jitsu I am assuming you are sticking with Cats and Blurry?
Definitely staying with Cats right now. I think that whole mass-shenanigans at the end of last night was to try to buy Cats some towncred. Sheth telling Cats to just vote switch to him? And Cats apologizing for doing it? Come on guys. Clearly an act. I'm definitely not buying it. After I pressured Sheth, I went back and read the interactions between them. It's just screaming at me. What was he willing to contribute? He was adamant in not voting for Sheth until the very end, when Sheth told him to vote for him in the post.
As for Blurry; I don't think so. I've read through his filter again (an astounding one page!!) just now and, while not very enlightening and helpful, hasn't really acted anti-town. I said that post last night because I was under the impression that was just bandwagon lynching, but I think it's just newbie play. That being said - he needs to post. He's still lurking, he's just also voting.
Going over filters now. I would like to hear from the new lurkers, especially Hippo's replacement (whoever he is).
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@Probu:
Bah, fuck you're faster keyboard APM. =/
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On January 10 2012 07:30 Jitsu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 06:46 Probulous wrote:How cursed are we? It has been 20 hours since replacement and kronhjort hasn't posted and all that Paperscraps has posted is a couple of welcome lines and "I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow." @Ceph, I am still waiting on your reads. @Jitsu I am assuming you are sticking with Cats and Blurry? Definitely staying with Cats right now. I think that whole mass-shenanigans at the end of last night was to try to buy Cats some towncred. Sheth telling Cats to just vote switch to him? And Cats apologizing for doing it? Come on guys. Clearly an act. I'm definitely not buying it. After I pressured Sheth, I went back and read the interactions between them. It's just screaming at me. What was he willing to contribute? He was adamant in not voting for Sheth until the very end, when Sheth told him to vote for him in the post. As for Blurry; I don't think so. I've read through his filter again (an astounding one page!!) just now and, while not very enlightening and helpful, hasn't really acted anti-town. I said that post last night because I was under the impression that was just bandwagon lynching, but I think it's just newbie play. That being said - he needs to post. He's still lurking, he's just also voting. Going over filters now. I would like to hear from the new lurkers, especially Hippo's replacement (whoever he is).
If by some miracle I am still alive today I will be looking into the lurkers. Cats is scummy as hell and I have no problem lynching him unless a better target appears.
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@Jitsu If I had flipped to vote Sheth you all would have just called me out for bandwaggoning again, so I decided to stick to my decision, even though I was in the minority. Obviously I was wrong about Sheth, but I switched from Gretorp to CM/AKCT last time and you called me out for bandwaggoning. Really though that's a situation where I'm fucked either way. If I change my vote, I must be mafia bandwaggoning. If I don't (like I did), I must be mafia defending a scumbuddy. I don't see how you can get a read on me from that.
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At this point, I think we can call Xeris/Gretorp new players - the previous lack of effort certainly wasn't able to give me enough information to determine their role, except MAYBE Gretorp.
Maybe.
That being said, I really hope that these guys stop lurking.
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Gretorp / Paperscraps = Null
The only thing which I am a bit surprised of is that Paper in his first post considers Xeris / Blurry scummy, but doesn't mention AnxiousHippo or Cats. We'll see soon enough.
Xeris / Kronhjort = Null / Slightly leaning towards scum.
Xeris was pushing quite hard (relative to his level of activeness) for his townyness, and no-lynching. Nothing from Kronhjort yet, so my opinion on this could change relatively easily. Also as Probu pointed out (yeah, go on and call me for ghosting on someone that doesn't have anything new to talk about), Sheth's comments about him aren't making him look any better.
AnxiousHippo / Bkrow = Slightly leaning towards scum
AnxiousHippo, I really don't have much new stuff to offer on him. His early game looks like a newbie town trying to contribute, but closer to the end of D1, it becomes more and more useless.
On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote: And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot When? Don't think we've forgotten. Xeris doesn't quite look scummy because we have nothing to analyse him on but he does look pretty dodgy, especially with Sheth's post in mind. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia. He's already been warned, in a not-newbie game it'd be a modkill. At the moment Cephiro looks more like mafia than CatsnHats, partly because I don't know what to make of Cats' "I give up post". He was also trying to play it safe till the pressure came on. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 01:23 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 01:10 Tunkeg wrote:
What is it that makes you think CookieMaker is slightly town? You have listed alot of anti-town things about him but not one pro-town thing. He had a very good start in my opinion, posting actively and talking about the different possibilities. I also like the fact that even though he is (or at least was) in favour of the no-lynch, he didn't give up on his thoughts just like that, but was sticking up for himself and why he thinks it's a good idea. I do have to admit that his last posts are quite fluffy, which is why I'm only carefully and only slightly leaning towards town on him for now. Jitsu had a few very good points about him though, which I slightly agree with. But for now I will still stick to my opinion about slightly town, until he posts more. He is on the edge of neutral and slightly town to me though. Also, I am finding myself on thinking of Jitsu as slightly town now. His last post was exactly what I wanted to see from him. On the other hand, I am still not sure about you. I think you are going slightly overboard with how much you are asking other's opinions, but not providing as much of your own. You have been suspecting quite a lot of people this early, and to what I see, there are two possibilities. Either you are mafia and trying to confuse people by trying to accuse a bit of everyone, or then you are just playing aggressive town, fishing for reactions for easier reads. I certainly hope you are the latter. But I remain neutral on you for now. He says he sees Jitsu and CM as slightly town and he's neutral on Tunkeg. He also falls back on "being excited" twice Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 02:38 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 02:24 Tunkeg wrote: @Ceph and Cats
You guys say I have been suspicious to many players allready. Well, then you missread me, I am only suspicious to CM atm. xeris and Gretorp I am not suspicious of as of yet, just saying I will vote for them if they don't step up. In my post to Blurry I didn't say I think he is suspicious, only that he haven't contributed greatly yet.
Ceph you said you think I have made to many questions posts and to little content posts. Well, to me content is opinions and analyzis of others play, and in my opinion I have allready made more content than you, including your day one analyzis post. I will give you credit for putting it out there, and it might lead to some discussion, but I think your reads are to vague and therefor the value of it isn't the greatest.
In closing I will say that I am not suspicious of you two as of yet, so there will be no missunderstanding. I see, good of you to clarify that. After re-reading your filter a few times, I personally think that you have posted a lot of opinions, but not that much analysis. I do see your point what you're getting at, and I also do understand your opinion about my analysis post. I do have to agree with you they don't tell that much yet, but I am trying to provide others an idea of my opinions at the moment, and raising dicussion to help me clarify my reads. Might also have to do with me still being excited to get this game started. + Show Spoiler +Hopefully they will answer your question posts seriously so we'll get more content thanks to you. I am not suscpicious of you either, but your recent answer enables me to get a better understanding of your playstyle, which I thank you for.
About your question as of Jitsu's post, it seems like he likes to concentrate his play on a few persons, which is very understandable. For me that post is making me lean to slightly-town on him, but I would like to see him take contact to more persons and his opinions about others too. If he isolates himself to only put pressure on these two it can have it's good sides, but at least I want to hear more of his thoughts before I say anything. He hasn't posted very much yet, but I still don't think he's scum. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing. Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia. I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : + Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.Also... Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote: Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird. However this morning you posted + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List: 1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you. @Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!? Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. He also says he doesn't think Sheth is mafia but asks everyone else to watch him closely, implying he wants other people to call him out first so he doesn't have to worry about it. His vote for Tea was also just a placeholder even though he said none of his top 3 scumreads is Tea. Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:22 Cephiro wrote: Placeholder vote since I am quite sure I will not have enough time to convince the town on lynching someone else, sorry AKCT. :/
If there are some specific points anyone of you want me to answer, please point them out now.
##Vote A Killer Cuppa Tea Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:37 Cephiro wrote:On January 06 2012 08:23 Probulous wrote: Two questions Ceph
Would you vote for AKCT?
From that post you think Sheth, Cats and myself are scum? Is that right? I don't want to put words in your mouth again so please label the three scum for me.
Thanks for coming out guns blazing. Voted for AKCT. We need to get a lynch today. This will be a short post since I don't think I will have time for a full analysis, but at the moment the top-3 scumreads (in no particular order) for me are:
Liquid`Sheth, CatsnHats, Gretorp.I am fairly sure that one of the lurkers is scum, even though I could be wrong. Gretorp has promised analysis twice, but nothing so far. Even though I do not like Xeris's overly safe play, I find Gretorp more scum than him at the moment. I was thinking about building a bigger case against you, since you seemed to go for me so aggressively, but even if I would like to see more of your reads on others, I think you have a reason to keep them to yourself for now, and you're just trying to pressure the hell out of who you think are scum. So I'm actually leaning town on you. @Jitsu if you look back at where he said Tea you'd see that I talked right before and after. @CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that.
This is probably his worst post. (In my opinion). First he pushes Gretorp... after everyone else did it already, we don't really need everyone to do that. Especially not trying to make it look like you're the first one doing it.
Then he makes an insanely bad case against me. (Okay, I'll give him credit for trying, but in my opinion most of those points are so poor... I can't believe he didn't find anything more on me since he clearly tried, especially after Probu's case.)
After that, all we see is a promise of bandwagon analysis into disappearance. Not good.
Bkrow has a hilarious start. With the arrow pointing mistake.
He is at least trying to look like he is providing content, but in my opinion he isn't looking very townie so far:
On January 09 2012 12:21 bkrow wrote:Cats what convinces you about Blurry being scum? I am reading through his filter and the scummiest thing i have come across is him advocating a no lynch on day 1 - but he seemed to go back on that idea later on. He also voted for Sheth straight up (from what i can see) and with such little KP it would be hard to see him doing that without some sort of indecision. Sorry if i am rehashing old stuff i am just catching up still; i think we should be looking at: a) people who were hesitant to vote Shethb) those who tried to offer alternate targets but once Sheth came up jumped on the "bandwagon" and c) the lurkers who make me angry
This is probably his best post. Questioning Cats's case, and providing his own point of view where we are likely to find scum. Note the bolded, I will get to it soon.
On January 09 2012 12:49 bkrow wrote: To be honest, considering those posts i don't see the case against Blurry more convincing than the case against Gretorp (now replaced by Paperscraps) - either Gretorp is very busy or very bad at being scum. Neither of those 2 situations are beneficial for town; but he is the first one that really grabbed my attention as inactive and intentionally dodging questions. He even promised analysis and.. well yeah..
I would love to hear from Paperscraps after he has caught up on the thread
Trying to focus attention on the other lurker, not providing analysis why he thinks Blurry is no more scum than Gretorp. You're allowed to have your own opinion, but please back it up with something.
On January 09 2012 14:10 bkrow wrote: I can't really speak for my predecessor but i think the fact that he got replaced illustrates his involvement with the game and provides an explanation for his inactivity. As for the dodging questions - well again, if he was inactive enough to get replaced then i doubt he was actively dodging questions - if he was, well then lol he is bad.
I looked through Xeris' filter - all 3 (?) posts? Lurkers are particularly dangerous not only because they add nothing, but they are just so hard to read as there is nothing to go off. Also because this is a mini mafia, a mislynch on a lurker can do some damage.
I say we place FoS on Xeris (his replacement) and at the very least it will give him a chance to explain himself. For now i see Xeris as a more viable target based on Sheth's comments - but then again, to come out in such defence of a particular person when you are scum is basically tying your fates, so this may have been Sheth's attempt to latch onto a townie and at least secure some result if he was lynched.
This slightly looks like trying to make up for the mistakes that Hippo did, to secure his own play further. (The first bolded part.) He talks about Xeris here which other people have already pointed at, but he keeps juggling "it could be or it could not be".
Now he would like to hear more about Paperscraps (Gretorp's replacement), and FoS Xeris (The other lurker that is already under suspicion). He has only provided anything towards his c)-category, but nothing about the people that belonged to his a or b category. (Cats for example.)
My current opinion on scum: AnxiousHippo(bkrow)/Xeris(Kronhjort) is one of the scum, and Cats is the other.
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On January 10 2012 07:40 CatsnHats wrote: @Jitsu If I had flipped to vote Sheth you all would have just called me out for bandwaggoning again, so I decided to stick to my decision, even though I was in the minority. Obviously I was wrong about Sheth, but I switched from Gretorp to CM/AKCT last time and you called me out for bandwaggoning. Really though that's a situation where I'm fucked either way. If I change my vote, I must be mafia bandwaggoning. If I don't (like I did), I must be mafia defending a scumbuddy. I don't see how you can get a read on me from that.
If you posted a reason why you voted for Sheth, other than he told you to, and that reason made sense - I don't think you would have been accused of bussing.
However, this is all conjecture. It's already history.
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Meh, I started pressing on Hippo earlier, so there isn't any reason to start again now. Especially since, after Cats, there are many question marks.
Bkrow, i'd like to see some posts in you're name. Add to the discussion. What do you think of Cats right now? you must have read the majority of the thread by now. What are some of you're scum reads?
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I thought it a good idea to have a read of what Sheth said about Hippo, and well not much is the answer I get. Here is the most substantial thing he wrote.
On January 09 2012 05:03 Liquid`Sheth wrote:1. AnxiousHippo : Starts off stating he is a new player (2nd game) and doens't know what to do early on. Starts off with pressuring CookieMaker + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 07:58 AnxiousHippo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 18:07 CookieMaker wrote:On January 04 2012 14:22 Probulous wrote: With that I am leaving till tomorrow. See you guys at about 08:00 KST tomorrow. Jab and dodge eh? I like your style. I'd actually also like his opinion. At the moment I am very content with the way the town is developing. There is clearly a trust developing among several players who employ similar town-favored tactics.Also, I enjoy watching Sheth stir the pot, but he's kinda leaving the lid off without giving it a chance to boil. I'm interested to see what our current inactives have to say; I think even the majority of the Nords have already piped up. And now I sleep in the hopes that during the night little elves will come and whisper in the ears of our inactives, and whence they rise an impulse stronger than coffee shall empower their mouse cursors to look at their TeamLiquid PM's and realize that they should be posting in this thread about their regret at not having posted sooner. Tunkeg I'm giving you some leeway because of the timezone comment but I swear to Odin.... Thought of some cute food for thought: Surely rotten eggs will indeed be the those whom first crack in the steamer This is one of the worst posts so far. Cookiemaker points out that Probulous leaves right after making accusations, and later says that he's about to go to sleep too. He also talks vaguely about how people are trusting eachother but so far it's only been cephiro and catsnhats, there's barely any trust from everyone else. He then uses a fancy metaphor which always annoys me, like they're trying to sound better. Then he posts some more useless metaphorical stuff saying he wants people to be a bit more active. and then a poem. cookiemaker clarify what players seem to be trusting eachother sheth tell us what posts are bothering you Also, where did blurry go? Not confident enough on his read on cookiemaker and puts a placeholder vote on Xeris. Then instead of reverting back to his own case on CM, he states he hasn't had enough time to read others cases on CM (A K C T) and votes on him to avoid a no-lynch. He then posts a nice argument against Cephiro : + Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote: And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot When? Don't think we've forgotten. Xeris doesn't quite look scummy because we have nothing to analyse him on but he does look pretty dodgy, especially with Sheth's post in mind. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia. He's already been warned, in a not-newbie game it'd be a modkill. At the moment Cephiro looks more like mafia than CatsnHats, partly because I don't know what to make of Cats' "I give up post". He was also trying to play it safe till the pressure came on. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 01:23 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 01:10 Tunkeg wrote:
What is it that makes you think CookieMaker is slightly town? You have listed alot of anti-town things about him but not one pro-town thing. He had a very good start in my opinion, posting actively and talking about the different possibilities. I also like the fact that even though he is (or at least was) in favour of the no-lynch, he didn't give up on his thoughts just like that, but was sticking up for himself and why he thinks it's a good idea. I do have to admit that his last posts are quite fluffy, which is why I'm only carefully and only slightly leaning towards town on him for now. Jitsu had a few very good points about him though, which I slightly agree with. But for now I will still stick to my opinion about slightly town, until he posts more. He is on the edge of neutral and slightly town to me though. Also, I am finding myself on thinking of Jitsu as slightly town now. His last post was exactly what I wanted to see from him. On the other hand, I am still not sure about you. I think you are going slightly overboard with how much you are asking other's opinions, but not providing as much of your own. You have been suspecting quite a lot of people this early, and to what I see, there are two possibilities. Either you are mafia and trying to confuse people by trying to accuse a bit of everyone, or then you are just playing aggressive town, fishing for reactions for easier reads. I certainly hope you are the latter. But I remain neutral on you for now. He says he sees Jitsu and CM as slightly town and he's neutral on Tunkeg. He also falls back on "being excited" twice Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 02:38 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 02:24 Tunkeg wrote: @Ceph and Cats
You guys say I have been suspicious to many players allready. Well, then you missread me, I am only suspicious to CM atm. xeris and Gretorp I am not suspicious of as of yet, just saying I will vote for them if they don't step up. In my post to Blurry I didn't say I think he is suspicious, only that he haven't contributed greatly yet.
Ceph you said you think I have made to many questions posts and to little content posts. Well, to me content is opinions and analyzis of others play, and in my opinion I have allready made more content than you, including your day one analyzis post. I will give you credit for putting it out there, and it might lead to some discussion, but I think your reads are to vague and therefor the value of it isn't the greatest.
In closing I will say that I am not suspicious of you two as of yet, so there will be no missunderstanding. I see, good of you to clarify that. After re-reading your filter a few times, I personally think that you have posted a lot of opinions, but not that much analysis. I do see your point what you're getting at, and I also do understand your opinion about my analysis post. I do have to agree with you they don't tell that much yet, but I am trying to provide others an idea of my opinions at the moment, and raising dicussion to help me clarify my reads. Might also have to do with me still being excited to get this game started. + Show Spoiler +Hopefully they will answer your question posts seriously so we'll get more content thanks to you. I am not suscpicious of you either, but your recent answer enables me to get a better understanding of your playstyle, which I thank you for.
About your question as of Jitsu's post, it seems like he likes to concentrate his play on a few persons, which is very understandable. For me that post is making me lean to slightly-town on him, but I would like to see him take contact to more persons and his opinions about others too. If he isolates himself to only put pressure on these two it can have it's good sides, but at least I want to hear more of his thoughts before I say anything. He hasn't posted very much yet, but I still don't think he's scum. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing. Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia. I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : + Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.Also... Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote: Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird. However this morning you posted + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List: 1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you. @Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!? Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. He also says he doesn't think Sheth is mafia but asks everyone else to watch him closely, implying he wants other people to call him out first so he doesn't have to worry about it. His vote for Tea was also just a placeholder even though he said none of his top 3 scumreads is Tea. Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:22 Cephiro wrote: Placeholder vote since I am quite sure I will not have enough time to convince the town on lynching someone else, sorry AKCT. :/
If there are some specific points anyone of you want me to answer, please point them out now.
##Vote A Killer Cuppa Tea Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:37 Cephiro wrote:On January 06 2012 08:23 Probulous wrote: Two questions Ceph
Would you vote for AKCT?
From that post you think Sheth, Cats and myself are scum? Is that right? I don't want to put words in your mouth again so please label the three scum for me.
Thanks for coming out guns blazing. Voted for AKCT. We need to get a lynch today. This will be a short post since I don't think I will have time for a full analysis, but at the moment the top-3 scumreads (in no particular order) for me are:
Liquid`Sheth, CatsnHats, Gretorp.I am fairly sure that one of the lurkers is scum, even though I could be wrong. Gretorp has promised analysis twice, but nothing so far. Even though I do not like Xeris's overly safe play, I find Gretorp more scum than him at the moment. I was thinking about building a bigger case against you, since you seemed to go for me so aggressively, but even if I would like to see more of your reads on others, I think you have a reason to keep them to yourself for now, and you're just trying to pressure the hell out of who you think are scum. So I'm actually leaning town on you. @Jitsu if you look back at where he said Tea you'd see that I talked right before and after. @CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that. Then says hes working on "bandwagon analysis" which he has yet to post. Null read.
The argument against Cephiro was weak at best but at least he was contributing. Sheth never updated his case on Hippo even when we started questioning him. That could be because Sheth himself was under pressure though. All in all Sheth's filter on Hippo gives me nothing
Hippo never gave us a read on Sheth so that also is a dead-end. Sorry guys.
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BK, thanks for being somewhat active. Can you explain this inconsistency for me.
Here you rightly point out that the case against Blurry is worse than the case against Gretorp.
On January 09 2012 12:49 bkrow wrote: To be honest, considering those posts i don't see the case against Blurry more convincing than the case against Gretorp (now replaced by Paperscraps) - either Gretorp is very busy or very bad at being scum. Neither of those 2 situations are beneficial for town; but he is the first one that really grabbed my attention as inactive and intentionally dodging questions. He even promised analysis and.. well yeah..
I would love to hear from Paperscraps after he has caught up on the thread
What does the "well yeah" mean? Are you implying he is scum or just pointing out that he didn't post it? From this you seems suspicious of Gretorp but are waiting on more information, is that correct?
Then you write about Xeris
On January 09 2012 14:10 bkrow wrote: I say we place FoS on Xeris (his replacement) and at the very least it will give him a chance to explain himself. For now i see Xeris as a more viable target based on Sheth's comments - but then again, to come out in such defence of a particular person when you are scum is basically tying your fates, so this may have been Sheth's attempt to latch onto a townie and at least secure some result if he was lynched.
If you had read the thread at all you would that this town is particularly hard on being people being wishy-washy. What the hell was this? You are clearly suspicious of Gretorp for lurking and it seems more suspicious of Xeris for both lurking and Sheth's comments. Is that correct?
If so why undermine the only case you have presented by suggesting that Sheth was trying to undermine Xeris' credibility? If we apply Occam's razor, it is more likely they are both mafia than Sheth had deliberately buddied up to an inactive townie in the hope that people would interpret his buddying up as scumbuddying. I don't get why you would post that. It just makes your whole post mean nothing, makes you look like you're contributing but gives you an easy out.
Explain.
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On January 09 2012 05:37 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Before I go to watch the game (steelers v broncos) I'll put my vote down where I think it can do some good. As again a no-lynch is a bad option, I'll understand if you lynch me as opposted to no one, but please this is just going to tell you I'm town and force you to look harder at Probulous and those who bandwagoned me for no reason or bad reasons, which I think you can already do now. I would much rather see Blurry or Cats lynched today (Cephiro if I thought I could get him possibly, and Gonzaw I havn't done a full read so I don't feel ok lynching him yet).
Having re-read Jitsu's filter and Cats' filter a couple of times, I feel confident that Cats actually has been getting help from his mafia brethren on a few posts and that he actually is scum. I think he is our best bet at getting a mafia tonight, and when he flips red we'll have much more information to go on.
##Vote: Catsnhats
This is kinda getting into WIFOM territory, but do you really think Sheth would say this if I was actually his scumbuddy?
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Oh Jistu, you are so much fun
Cats, that is clearly WIFOM stuff and doesn't help your case. You did exactly the same thing when you said Cookie voting for you mean you weren't mafia. Turns out he was town so do you stand by that statement? Can't you see how this stuff tells us nothing.
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Alright well I just thought I would mention it. Clearly everybody have their minds made up. Nothing I can do can change your opinions of me at this point. I'll keep posting until I'm lynched on D3 though (kinda waiting on the new people to post). That way when I flip green, you can first laugh at how bad of a town I was (don't worry, I've been laughing too ), and then you can look through my filter for some reads.
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