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On November 18 2011 18:21 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2011 18:02 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 18 2011 17:45 LSB wrote:
I haven't analysed on Chaoser/Nisani yet so I can't give you a definite answer and will not comment on their play. But you must remember a few things
1) Lynches are more often than not Townie-Townie. Many games have been lost because Day 1 Mislynch, Day 2 Go after the person who pushed the Day 1 lynch, and hit a mislynch
2) Just because there are people who look like scum doesn't mean we should ignore Palmar.
3) I didn't say that Palmar's analysis is bad. I said his analysis is forced. There is a crucial difference. You say it's forced but you don't really show how. x.x Read the first few paragraphs again... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=252145
Guess you didn't understand my post, did you?
1) Warping people's words- it's much easier to argue against "I shot the sheriff" than "I protected the sheriff and that's why KP was lowered"
2) Making logical fallacies- These are unconscious. When you desperately attempt to prove someone to be mafia, you start making bad/erronious connections.
3) Go after easy targets- it's easy to hide amongst a crowd. This is not necessarily true for forced analysis.
Thesis: Palmar's little insight rests solely on logical fallacies, which are made because he is forcing analysis. Therefore Palmar is mafia.
If Palmar's insights rest solely on logical fallacies, what's separating his so-called "forced" analysis from bad analysis?
You say there is a crucial difference, but have not shown it.
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Bad analysis would be
1) Baseless / scumtells
2) Sheeping
3) Not actually saying why someone is scum.
See the difference?
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wherebugsgo, you still haven't said anything relevant pertaining my analysis. You are completely ignoring the fact that Palmar make serious logical fallacies in every single one of his accusations (show me a post where he doesn't). And you are throwing up dust by trying to group my analysis with the janky stuff the town came up with to lynch Kenpachi.
I probably posted this analysis too early, but you need to step back and not let your emotions about the last lynch get to you and take a fresh look at everyone.
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I wonder if LSB is genuinely this bad, or if he's scum.
You see, I am not mafia, and I'm not worried about being lynched because you're never going to convince enough people that I am, because just like you accuse myself of, you're pushing a terrible case.
I don't get it though, I'm perfectly fine with you calling my arguments bad, what I don't understand is for someone who accuses me of making logical leaps and being hypocritical, how you can allow yourself to ignore your own leaps. You say mafia like to put words in people's mouths, but you do exactly the same. You accuse me of using something called No True Scotsman, yet I see no distinction from how I applied it to how you apply it.
I'm just going to admit, I'm trying really hard to be nice this game, so I'm going to refute your case in four points and let town decide.
1. Regarding that scotsman thing
Palmar is theorizing what optimal town play and blaming Chaoser for not following it.
I accuse chaoser of not playing optimally for being a vanilla town, and because that's his claim and his play doesn't match, therefore he must be scum
How is this different from you theorizing what standard scum play looks like, and then blaming me for following it?
But even ignoring how hypocritical your assumption is, I wonder how you expect us to catch mafia if not by trying to figure out which player in the game is not playing with honest intentions. This is how I have always played the game, I look for tiny things that tilt a player one way or the other, and then try to build a case around them.
Funny thing is that you yourself did notice I don't apply the "optimal town play" universally, I just use it where I believe it's applicable.
Again, Meta Fallocies, and a quick town tell on sinani who up to the point of Palmar's post did not post anything substantial. I don't know how Palmar can be 100% sure that Sinani is town but even if it is true (And we ignore the fact that Palmar is using s**y scumtells) it leads us to the next fallacy
Sinani206's play is so far from optimal for town that it's borderline disgusting, that doesn't change the fact I deduced he wasn't mafia and did not vote for him. I did not expect sinani206 to play well, he never does.
2. Putting words in people's mouth
2) His argument is essentially, Kenpachi is scum so Lania is scum. This is another fallocy, since at the time Kenpachi hasn't flipped.
No, it isn't, you're doing the very thing you yourself listed. Read the post you quoted again, at no point did I draw a line between Kenpachi's alignment and Lanaia's alignment, that's straight up false. My push against Lanaia is solely based on me wanting to policy lynch her for making a bad move.
3. Sticking to my beliefs... what?
Oh looks like Palmar gets out once he realizes Lania is actually going to be lynched. What happened to 'sticking to your beliefs' and 'definatly going to lynch her' now
Please tell me where I claimed that I would stick to my beliefs no matter what? I am perfectly okay with changing my mind. So you're accusing me of changing my mind... well... yeah?
I did change my mind, that's actually true... I don't know how to respond the the accusation I must be mafia because I changed my mind.
The only thing that is making me hesitate calling you straight up mafia LSB is the fact that it would be very weird play by mafia to post a case like this against me during the night. It's definitely far from being a proof you're just misguided town, but at least it gives you the benefit of the doubt.
And yeah, I'm going to keep comparing people's play with how I would expect them to play. You think what you want about that.
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Of course your analysis is with the janky stuff town came up with to lynch kenpachi. It is far more forced than you claim Palmar's analysis is.
Both the kenpachi lynch and the sinani lynch were horrible, yet you don't seem to realize your own mistake in voting sinani.
What I'm not understanding is why you're being so selective. I am not ignoring anything; Palmar was not using bad logic. I actually agree with his meta assessment of chaoser. You don't for whatever reason, so you're spinning that into bad logic. It's not bad logic at all. A player plays a certain way as a certain alignment. When you see them deviate strongly from that pattern you become suspicious. It's completely natural and a very effective way of catching scum. This is all Palmar is saying, and in this situation you are the one twisting things.
Second, Palmar does not utilize a no true Scotsman fallacy. Hell, I don't even know where you're getting that from. Palmar was dead correct on how townies should try to get their targets lynched. Playstyles might be different but chaoser as town is not completely haphazard and he does not vote people moronically. He uses logic and reasons out his votes. In this game all his votes have been complete trash.
You don't seem to understand the logical fallacy you're accusing Palmar of. It's actually quite funny.
Then you go on to claim that Palmar was 100% sure sinani was town. Again, this is based on meta, and anyone who voted sinani yesterday wasn't thinking. Which, by the way, includes you.
Any person who reasoned for more than five seconds would see that literally no one was defending sinani. It was the easiest bandwagon in the history of bandwagons. There was no backlash. The bandwagon was brainless. Sinani's meta did not fit. He never once said anything scummy. He was lynched entirely on him being bad and useless as town. AKA, on his meta.
You were one of those votes. Now you are the hypocrite.
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More precisely, on his meta fitting his town meta. Which is real funny, because in this game we try not to lynch townies.
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On November 18 2011 12:39 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2011 12:00 Forumite wrote:
WBG, I´d take a look at players who were on only one of the lynches, players who posted that both were scummy, but only voted on one of them, players who had allready gotten one Townie killed and didn´t want to attract too much attention by voting on two. Players who hang back and blame others for the mislynches. Those who voted for both victims look bad, but I think they look like bad Townies. That´s my opinion at least, that Scum are the ones avoiding the second lynch. If they dared to lynch sinani, then it wouldn´t have taken so long to get those final votes. This was exactly what I was thinking. Mostly the singular early and late votes. One of them is you though lolol Yeah, I know I´ve done a few things that make me look bad in this game. I guess that means I´m improving my game a bit, if I can identify my own mistakes. I knew sinani would most likely flip Town, but I still thought it was worth it then and now. We now have lots of info and reads, much more than after the Kenpachi lynch, and we won´t have to deal with sinani at the endgame. Scum wouldn´t have shot him anyway. I´m just disappointed that they both flipped Blue, but that´s anger at them more than any fault of Town. They could have been more carefull about wasting Towns few power roles.
Do you mind waiting until tomorrow to discuss where scum hide? prplhz I´m almost certain on, because of the odd way he avoided taking sides in a popular lynch that he obviously had a lot of opinions on, but for now I´d keep my scumreads under a lid.
On November 18 2011 17:32 LSB wrote:
Any bets on whether or not I survive the night? You are lmost certainly surviving the night. Combining low activity, low town-cred and a single decent case doesn´t get you nightkilled, it gets you lynched. At least now you are trying to contribute and that is great, so please try and not go back to lurking.
Who are still lurking? Scum usually hide a few of their members among the forgotten players.
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If either of those townies had contributed, it should have been much easier to pursue people that were actual scum.
If you are or are acting like a bad townie right now, this is a great chance to stop, analyse how that could have been you, and very well might be tomorrow if you don't pick your game up.
Lets not have this happen again 
On November 18 2011 12:00 Forumite wrote:
WBG, I´d take a look at players who were on only one of the lynches, players who posted that both were scummy, but only voted on one of them, players who had allready gotten one Townie killed and didn´t want to attract too much attention by voting on two. Players who hang back and blame others for the mislynches. Those who voted for both victims look bad, but I think they look like bad Townies. That´s my opinion at least, that Scum are the ones avoiding the second lynch. If they dared to lynch sinani, then it wouldn´t have taken so long to get those final votes.
I disagree, scum would have known they would be easy townie lynches that didn't give much information long before we did. There is definitely scum that voted on both wagons, especially since Sinani almost wasn't lynched.
On November 18 2011 11:15 Nisani201 wrote:
DCLXVI
Drazerk
Zephirdd
GreYMisT
risk.nuke
Tyrran
Lemonwalrus
Cyber_Cheese
These people voted for both Kenpachi and sinani206.
There is 1-2 scum on this list. Drazerk is one of them
We should have lynched Drazerk to test his soft-claim. Honestly, in a balanced game, 1-2 in 8 is scum on average no matter what list you decide to make.
Given the fact you claim Drazerk is one of the scum, this translates into potentially one scum out of the other seven.
How exactly was this supposed to be helpful?
Neither Kibibit or Sabin010 had a vote down at the end of the day. From what I can conclude of the OP rules on voting, that means they essentially no-voted and is fine.
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On November 17 2011 19:53 Tyrran wrote:Okay guys, I think we should try to get as much information as possible off the Kenpachi/Lanaia case. Here is my own analysis. This analysis assumes that Kenpachi will flip green/blue. If he flips red, its a whole other story. Is Lanaia scum ? While there still is a small possibilities that Lanaia used her ability to focus the votes on Kenpachi, I believe she is town and only made a mistake using her anti-vote carelessly. The main reason is that her ability does not seems to fit a scum as it appears to everyone. This was confirmed to be working as intended by Zona. Also she stated beforehand that the would rather lynch sinani over Kenpachi, so her anti-vote on Ken is understandable ( does not mean it was a good move). This leads me to believe her saying that she made a huge mistake. I'd say she is town 75%. Lets not lynch her. Yet. @Lanaia : So you did not want to claim d1, yet you used your anti-vote fully aware that he would show up?? This contradiction is the reason i still think you migth be scum. What was the stance of mafia during this ? Okay, so lets try to think as if we were mafia. A blue 'accidentaly' reveal herself, and does this in a extremely strange way. Kenpachi had not posted much, so I dont think mafia had a read on him being potentially blue yet ( his over reaction to his lynching migth have been a good tell for them). Perfect opportunity to press the town into a misslynch ! Sho who should mafia focus on ? Kenpachi ( no read on him), or Lanaia ( confirmed blue). This is a no brainer for them, pressuring the town into voting Lanaia is obviously the best move here for them. Lets see who voted early for her : * Drazerk : Show nested quote +On November 17 2011 06:03 Drazerk wrote:
##vote: Lanaia
No blue would save kenpachi First one to go for Lania, just after the post revealing her as a blue. Only has a very bad reason for this. Had already voted for Kenpachi before. Voted too hastely or scum ? * Hyshes : Show nested quote +On November 17 2011 06:21 hyshes wrote:On November 17 2011 06:01 Zephirdd wrote:Huh, I just found this on our beautiful bot-induced vote system. Kenpachi (4): bumatlarge, DCLXVI, prplhz, Drazerk, Zephirdd, Lanaia (Anti-Vote) Now, looking through his filters, Lanaia has not made an statement on voting Kenpachi, except that he prefers to vote on sinani over him. Which means that, either the system is bugged(unlikely), or Lanaia has the ability to anti-vote someone through PM. Looking through the roles, the closest I've found is "Double Voter", but I assume anti-voting is a variation of that. Which means Lanaia is not green(assuming green = vanilla town) So either Lanaia is scum or Lanaia is a blue to be killed. The question is: which one? And if he doesn't die next day, can we confirm he is scum or maybe the Mafia just want us to believe that? And why would he want Kenpachi to not die(anti-voting him)? I'd like to have these questions clarified or at least discussed, I got really confused right now. only scum would defend lurkers. ##vote: Lanaia With this in mind, the fact that he jumped extremely quickly on the Lanaia bandwagon with the only excuse "only scum would defend a lurker" is extremelly scummy. Not only that, but while this statement suggest that Kenpachi is also scum, he did not vote for him, focusing only on Lanaia. This is very suspect. Note that he later 'said' that it would be weird if Lanaia did this as scum, but did not remove his vote! *Palmar : Show nested quote +On November 17 2011 06:24 Palmar wrote:
Also, Zona, if they're both scum you should probably re-roll the game, sadly.
##Vote Lanaia
##Vote Kenpachi Show nested quote +On November 17 2011 07:51 Palmar wrote:
We're lynching Lanaia no matter what. What she did is extremely poor play on day 1. If you're gonna do something like that, why not take it up with town? You must've known the anti-vote would show up anyway, so you're basically outed as soon as yo use it.
Basically, that play is so bad for town that I see no reason to not lynch her.
As for Kenpachi, well, his sole defense i "town is bad" which is well... fair. But remember, if you are the one who doesn't manage to argue your way out of lynch, both as town and scum, you are actually the worst person of all those bads you're complaining about.
Without exception, the player who gets lynched day 1 is the worst player in the game. Okay so Palmar had already quite some influence over town with his Chaoser analysis, immediatly jumped on the Lanaia bandwagon, and later when people where only voting for Kenpachi, he insisted on the fact that Lanaia should by going down multiple time. As explained above, this is very mafia-like, he is trying to make us lynch a blue ! *LemonWalrus/GreYMisT : You guys went for her early, but backed down after explanation that lynching both of them was not a good idea, and that Kenpachi was probably the best lynch. I'm fine with that. *Zephirrd : He was the one that discovered te anti-vote, yet he waited to vote for Lanaia, and gave good reasons for his vote. I'd keep an eye on him, but no clear scum read here. *Hiroruby :Jumbed on the bandwagon without good reasons. Also, very scummy post early in the game. Not very active overall ( made a couple big post early, and fell into unactivity after that. *Sinani206 : Also jumped on the bandwagon without any good reason ( only said 1 word : "Scumbuddies" ). Now the same analysis gives us a good read on risk.nuke too : He was the first and only one to push the town into NOT VOTING for Lanaia. Why would a mafia push the town into not voting for a blue ? Does not make sens to me.I Believe he is town. Conclusion Likely scum : Drazerk, Hyshes, Palmar, Hiroruby, Sinani206 Likely Town : Lanaia, LemonWalrus, GreyMisT, Zephirrd Confirmed Town: risk.Nuke. This is based on this analysis alone, I ignored on purpose most of the post that did not relate to the Kenpachi/lanaia Case. The goal was to find potential scum, we still need to confirm them ! I think we should not lynch anyone for now. If Kenpachi does not flip red, Focus on the likely scum above. If not, we lynched a red :D, and back to the drawing board, to re use risk.nuke wording. What do you guys think ? I would love some feedback on this.
I just had a thought regarding this, you are probably right, but there are parts we should not overlook.
Lanaia did not roleclaim, thus there could be more to the role, nor can we be completely sure of her alignment.
Lanaia could be making herself look like a bad townie because it's day 1, in which case risk.nuke who defended her is not confirmed town.
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These are the people I think need investigation.
The people who voted for Kenpachi, Lanaia and Sinani
Lemonwalrus, GreYMisT, Zephirdd, Drazerk,
On November 17 2011 09:05 Nisani201 wrote:
OK EVERYONE HOLD THE PHONE!
Is Kenpachi dead, or can I unvote him?
Nisani claims himelf not to want to lynch kenpachi anymore, but note he doesn't unvote and 3 minutes later...
On November 17 2011 09:08 Cyber_Cheese wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2011 08:58 Kenpachi wrote:On November 17 2011 08:49 Kenpachi wrote:
ill claim when we hit 12!1!11!!! now that i proved that you guys are indeed retards, i have no regrets. implies i have a role Show nested quote +On November 15 2011 13:29 Kenpachi wrote:
real long day ok.
hi i am Kenpachi and i am a Townie
welcome to TL mafia to those who are just starting and i hope you have a good time here.
That is two lies in a game where we should be lynching all liars. ##Unvote: Coagulation##Vote: KenpachiTyping ## and : is a pain.
...Cybercheese nailes Kenpachis coffin.
That's a scummy connection worth looking in to
On another note. Town (that includes me) are playing like shit and it's going to stop now.
The accused defends themselves with arguments like "you're idiots, fuck you". It's your own fucking fault for getting yourself lynched. Period.
The only defense I've seen is from Lanaia who explains everything in his thoughtprocess and as result he did not get lynched, not even close. And that is exacly how every fucking one of you are going to defend yourself from now on. Copy?
Then we have the accusers. I know it's easy when you feel like you have a gut feeling on someone, you want them lynched and suddenly you've just copied something just so you type a reason to vote. Enough of that lazy shit, sit down and really think why you feel like you feel. That way when asked about it later you can answer truthfully. or maybe you realised you don't actually want the person dead after all. The next person who quotes someone and votes I am going to slap. Because if townies are throwing around votes without explaining an acceptable thoughtprocess mafia can do the same and nobody can tell the difference.
In short. Defend yourself by explaining your truthfull thoughtprocess.
Accuse someone by explaining your truthfull thoughtprocess. Now read this out loud 3 times.
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sinani206 is warned for posting in the thread after death. Please do not do this.
Hiroruby is warned for not posting in 39 hours, and is in danger of being replaced.
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On November 18 2011 16:03 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
I still don't like Drazerk, and he seems dead-set on convincing us he will be useless whether he is town or scum. Not sure how much effort should be spent on him, but I'd like him to end up dead sooner rather than later.
I also don't like the looks of LSB too much, but he is currently exceeding 24 hours without posting, so I don't see the point of pursuing something there unless he comes back before getting mod-killed.
LSB is not going to be replaced due to inactivity. Expecting your read on him, preferably after the daypost.
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On November 18 2011 22:28 risk.nuke wrote:
Then we have the accusers. I know it's easy when you feel like you have a gut feeling on someone, you want them lynched and suddenly you've just copied something just so you type a reason to vote. Enough of that lazy shit, sit down and really think why you feel like you feel. That way when asked about it later you can answer truthfully. or maybe you realised you don't actually want the person dead after all. The next person who quotes someone and votes I am going to slap. Because if townies are throwing around votes without explaining an acceptable thoughtprocess mafia can do the same and nobody can tell the difference.
In short. Defend yourself by explaining your truthfull thoughtprocess.
Accuse someone by explaining your truthfull thoughtprocess. Now read this out loud 3 times.
Doctors, please protect this man. I want him alive tomorrow.
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@risk.nuke:
Expecting town to stop playing like shit is pretty futile. Did you read sinani206's role? He could easily have claimed that and then stopped actions for one night to prove that at least he was telling the truth about his role. However, sinani206 doesn't actually want to win as town, so he chooses to troll instead.
Another example is Lanaia, she's not new to mafia, and anyone who gives the issue half a thought should understand why what she did was bad. That didn't stop her.
Still, there is a marked difference between the apathy of Sinani206 and for example the aggressive uselessness of Nisani201, which is why I concluded the former wasn't mafia, and the latter was.
As for townies, any medics should be protecting into this group of players:
Forumite
Tyrren
risk.nuke
Palmar
Wherebugsgo
If we have investigative roles, we should be checking into this group of players
chaoser
Lemonwalrus
Greymist
Bumatlarge
Zephirdd
If we have vigilantes they should be focusing on people who are hellbent on being useless and scummy to boot.
Nisani201
Drazerk
xskxc
etc
etc
Yes, i'm directing blues, what about it bitches?
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I have been slightly lenient for players who have not posted for periods slightly longer than 24 hours. For maximum transparency and to assure players that I am acting in a consistent manner, I will state the following:
36 hours without posting -> warning
multiple 24 hour periods without posting -> warning
After a player is warned, he or she may be replaced (or modkilled) at my discretion.
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Why am I on your vigi list Palmar? O_O
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Click your own filter, you have 1 post that consists of more than 5-ish lines, and even that has very little information. Your primary responsibility as town is to establish your innocence and being transparent, with almost nothing to go on except you chasing after Drazerk you look pretty bad.
In fact, the fact that you question it so genuinely is probably the most townie thing you've done the entire game. That doesn't change the fact that while we are aware you want to lynch Drazerk, you haven't done much to share any of your other reads.
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(when I say 1 post, I'm discounting THIS as it's not actually a contribution that says anything about your alignment.)
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btw, I have an free hour or two, so if anyone wants to know anything about the game, this is the time to ask.
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Another example is Lanaia, she's not new to mafia, and anyone who gives the issue half a thought should understand why what she did was bad. That didn't stop her
The fuck? How is Lanaia not new? She's played under 5 games here. The first time I played with her (Insane 2 mafia), she accidentally leaked that she was king and then died for it. She didn't do so well in the next normal game she played in either, posting this:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=204956¤tpage=54#1069
and then getting replaced. So how is Lanaia not new again?
And how does being not new or being new relate to whether someone is good or not? I started playing in like 2009 or so and I didn't get better than shit until recently in relative time. GM decided it was a good idea to fake claim medic on the night before LYLO and he's been here forever/played way more when compared to Lanaia.
This is such bad logic of "she did something bad, she deserves to die"
Oh and also:
it's pretty clear we're killing chaoser, lanaia and kenpachi today
and chaoser is scum, so we need to kill him.
We should be voting to lynch at least one person based on analysis, and that person should be chaoser.
What is lacking in my case against chaoser for you to be convinced?
my attention is completely on chaoser, whom I consider very likely to be scum at the moment.
I accuse chaoser of not playing optimally for being a vanilla town, and because that's his claim and his play doesn't match, therefore he must be scum
You're on my dick for the whole day and when you decide it's time to direct blue roles you decide the best thing for me is:
If we have investigative roles, we should be checking into this group of players
chaoser
??? Why didn't you put me in the:
If we have vigilantes they should be focusing on people who are hellbent on being useless and scummy to boot.
list?
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EPT
