A reversal of fate.
I believe it is time that the proverbial kid gloves came off. I was hoping to be able to keep my cover of "useless troll" going for another couple days, but I'm afraid that things have come to a head rather more quickly than expected. You see assembled ladies and gentlemen we are being played. Played by a devious snake, who pushes others to serve their bidding without sticking his neck out.
Lets break down what is happening this game, and who the man responsible for all of it is. Let us start with a game defining moment, one close to our hearts, one where alignments were proven and dice were cast. I am speaking of course of the Palmar lynch, or dare I say, the Palmar bus
The Palmar Bus: An item of necessity. I can see it already, the looks of outrage and denial on your faces, the doubt that Palmar was in fact a bus rather than a straight up success of town scumhunting. Let us look at two relevant posts that occurred, right after Palmar died, the first in the PYP Interesting thread
On September 30 2011 07:03 Palmar wrote: /out
this was three minutes after his death.
Also important
On September 30 2011 07:04 Palmar wrote: I'd like to postpone my mini game if possible, no ETA.
this post occurred four minutes after his lynch. What does this mean, exactly? In and of itself its nothing definitive, but it strongly suggests that something came up in real life that is going to be occupying Palmars attention to the point he will be unable to keep playing. This lines up perfectly with his sloppy, if not downright terrible, play, and with the fact that our spammy, aggressive friend has less than 20 in game posts over 48 hours. My conclusion? Something came up in real life, something that meant Palmar wouldn't be able to play, since Palmar is a ballsy mafia player he agreed to be thrown under the bus instead of seeking replacement.
This theory is supported by a couple of interesting developments.
Look at this post
On September 29 2011 19:43 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2011 19:37 Curu wrote: Kenpachi is possibly a scum day Vig, I see no other reason for him to paint his name blue this time instead of green like all his other games. all the role pms were blue? well not yours, but the others. ##Unvote ##Vote Curuanalysis incoming. It should be pretty clear that this is a fabricated “slip”, as there is no way Palmar would not check his host provided town PM before making a statement like this. He forced the topic in order to solidify his downfall and allow Curu to gain town credibility and establish his ‘mod confirmed towniness’.
This is this a scum Palmar who read Cosmic Horror Mafia and saw Jackal buss JeeJee with a play that is an exact clone of this, and has decided to emulate it. Its simple really, Palmar needed to buy his buddies credit, he did this by "slipping up" and having his buddy jump on it like a wolf. This slip up is especially unlikely when we remember that the mafia have a copy of the town PMs. Kurumi went *out of his way* to point that out.
Leaving that aside for a second, where was the counter bandwagon to save Palmar? The only times when there are no counter bandwagons is when the scumteam is extremely weak, which is unlikely, when there is damning evidence against a player (which there really isn't) or when scum decide to bus someone. Read XXXVII, read Cosmic Horror, read any other game where scum decided to bus day 1, it always has a vote list that has someone with a clear majority and a bunch of votes from confused townies lying all over the place.
This is further justified by Palmars weak defense of himself. Palmar is much better than "hey guys I'm a dt, lol" as his defense. Much much better, he is a destructive powerful scum, I have an impossible time believing that that is the best effort Palmar could put up. This is not how a Palmar who wants to survive plays.
Palmar was bussed
what day 1 was all about
With that knowledge in mind we can analyze the thread in a new light. In fact, day 1 takes on a different, less happy tone, doesn't it?
Day 1: Revisited
Day 1, now that we know Palmar's death was a bus we need to ask two questions: 1.) Who was leading his bus? Remember, a bus is worthless to the scumteam if they don't get a semi-confirmed townie or two out of it. 2.) Who did Palmar interact with?
Reading over the thread a single name should occur to you, a man who did the following 1.) Led the lynch on Palmar 2.) Was the first to jump on Palmar's "scumslip" 3.) Repeatedly "proved" how he and Palmar were of opposite alignments 4.) Was the person Palmar spent the most time tunneling
Who am I talking about? Curu our neighborhood "confirmed townie"
Palmars #1 enemy This relates deeply to Palmar's meta (that horrid word), you see, when Palmar is scum there is one thing he does, without fail, he picks a teammate and argues the hell out of him, calling him scum, making cases and generally yelling at him. The most recent and evident example of this is from Ace's Some Mafia Game, where our good friend Palmar spent a good chunk of time defending townies and yelling at his buddies, chaos13 and Mig. He also opens with a vote against his partner. Now, who does he do this to this game?
Well he starts softly with Jackal, which would make me slightly suspicious of him, if he weren't dead, then he lightly FoS incognito, into this post.
Curu And Curu is scum. Once the random voting stage is over, the correct move forward is to analyse and re-read everything said and try to build a case. Curu knows this, and if you look through his past day 1 play as town you'll see he actively pushes his reads and he works hard to get a lynch in the right direction. Most notable for me is a game I played with him in BC's AA, I was 3rd party in that game (I'm never town...) But that meant I was actually scumhunting. In this game Curu worked really hard to swing a bad vote into a good one. This game his entire play has consisted of one-liners and uselessness. The most revealing thing aside from just being generally useless and having nothing of value posted is this thing. Show nested quote +On September 29 2011 05:36 Curu wrote: WBG is pretty scummy but not at Palmar level yet. It's the timing that's important. This is actually after people actively started discussing a WBG lynch. ie: the random voting stage is over at this point. I had not posted a single important thing in the game yet, and still he doesn't discuss the issue at hand and just keeps on going after the target of choice from the random voting stage. This in itself isn't really damning, but the fact that he never goes back to try to analyse or re-read anything, he just sticks to the tunnel when he comes back to the thread. Show nested quote +On September 29 2011 18:46 Curu wrote: Ok I have read the thread now.
Still wanna lynch Palmar tbh. With no reasoning, nothing, just keeping the tunnel going. As a side-note if the mafia pm is actually read instead of just saying "RED" (btw, if anyone wants to know more, first two lines in my role pm both start with the word BLU in capital black non-bolded letters). The fact that he's jumping this so hard just reinforces my opinion of him being scum. so to re-iterate Curu is scum##Vote Curu Its a weak case, its a bad case, but it clearly looks to set up a dichotomy between Palmar and Curu, it is an attempt at setting the two players up as opposites of each other, so that when the bus goes through Curu will be golden.
On September 30 2011 04:02 Palmar wrote:
Lynch Curu tomorrow, or just vig him tonight, he's almost definitely scum. I fucked up and gave him a "scumslip" which is the main reason mig believes him. I think mig is town though.
Stop and think for a minute. Palmar is doomed. Yet why does he continue to attack Curu when he knows his credibility will be shot after he flips red? If Palmar was just the victim of good day 1 analysis, he would have no incentive to keep emphasizing the dichotomy between him and Curu. In this game, Palmar has an unusally small number of posts. Furthermore, he never defends himself in any of them, yet takes the time to attack Curu multiple times. It is clear that he never had the intention to survive past day 1. So why does he emphasize that Curu should be lynched after? Palmar wants to divorce himself from Curu and emphasize that they are of different alignments. Yes, it is possible that many of you will scream “WIFOM”, but the kicker is that Curu also makes sure to emphasize how he and Palmar *must* be opposite alignments.
Lets look at that, one of the first significant posts Curu makes is "a joke", I'll quote it here for simplicity's sake
On September 28 2011 04:16 Curu wrote: Me and Palmar are never the same alignment except in Minis.
WaW2: Curu Mafia Palmar Third Party
Arkham Asylum Curu Town Palmar Third Party
PTP2 Curu Town Palmar Mafia
SNMMV Curu Town Palmar Mafia
XLIV Curu Mafia Palmar Town
Ace's Mafia Game Curu Town Palmar Mafia
Since I am indeed Town in this game Palmar must be Mafia. This is trying to establish in our minds, from the very beginning of the game that Palmar and Curu are of opposite alignments. Why does Curu go through all the past games to emphasize his point? If he is truly just joking, would he really go through the effort to dig out all the examples that he and Palmar are always of different alignments? It would be easy enough to say “##Vote Palmar, since we are always on different teams”, but Curu goes out of his way to emphasize this point. Consider this post:
On September 29 2011 20:27 Curu wrote: I voted for you on the irrefutable evidence that we are always opposite alignments.
Then I noticed you skirting the thread and throwing out dumb accusations which pretty much validated my vote on you into a real one.
In the first statement, Curu emphasizes the “irrefutable evidence” that they are always of opposite alignments. Yet in the second statement, he feels the need to turn his vote “into a real one”? Curu is trying to give a double message here: He recognizes that his initial reasoning can only be seriously seen as a joke reason, but yet he continues to insist on this “irrefutable evidence”. Curu was not just “getting the ball rolling”, from the beginning, he was intending to benefit personally from Palmar’s lynch.
During the rest of the time, Curu pretty much signing all his posts with "lynch Palmar" and "Palmar is scum". Notice in particular how when wbg brings up a discussion of "if palmar is green you are scum" he goes around "denying" it by calling attention to the idea and causes the thread to errupt into pages of Curu/wbg back and forth. This is a clever and very well executed attempt at setting up two opposing factions, and it worked, everyone bought into it, for some reason because Kurumi didn't modkill anyone Curu and Palmar *had* to be of opposite alignments. No reasons given, no satisfactory explanation, its just an obvious "fact". The rest of what happened is history, how curu led the lynch as a "town leader" with a case that was pretty shoddy, but which strangely no one even attacked, not even Palmar.
On September 30 2011 04:13 Curu wrote: Looks like I'm getting modkilled regardless but I'm pretty sure Kurumi's decision in that is because you actually are scum. Dunno why he would threaten to modkill both of us if we were both Townies since playing like that would already be punishment to our win con.
On September 30 2011 04:24 Kurumi wrote: Could You stop talking about mods doing something when they said nothing? Also focus on the game. Please.
Notice how Curu is the one who jumps the gun. He speculates why Kurumi “decided” one way or the other when Kurumi in fact said nothing. Obviously, Kurumi is in an awkward situation. He cannot counteract Curu’s words, but he also cannot affirm them without giving away information. So the best he can do is to stop Curu from planting words in his mouth. What can we conclude from this exchange? There is no reason to believe that Curu was EVER “mod confirmed”. Curu is taking advantage of the fact that the host cannot legitimately respond in order to suggest that the mod confirmed him innocent.
There is no doubt about it Curu led the lynch on Palmar and Bussed him like a boss.
This goes further than that though, Curu has been the puppetmaster behind the scenes, and has been manipulating the day 2 lynch behind the scenes. In fact I'm convinced (although I don't have hard evidence) that he convinced Mig to make his case against Palmar at the opportune moment. Now he is using his "town rep" to push a lynch behind the scenes. What lynch? The Incognito lynch. Notice how Curu has contributed absolutely no substance to the Incognito lynch.
His first mention of Incog is:
On September 30 2011 07:50 Curu wrote: If Incog flips Mafia we should probably start clearing out the garbage that we will never be able to read after that.
He gives no opinions, just suggests that if Incog is mafia, then we need to take action. Here, Curu does not directly push Incog’s lynch, links the Incog lynch to broader issues in order to inflate its importance.
In his next mention of Incog,
On October 01 2011 01:45 Curu wrote: Yep for balance reasons me and Mig Town means likely Incognito or GM scum. He again emphasizes the connection between mig, himself, and being town, and implicates Incog for nothing substantial other than “balance” reasons. Notice a theme here: Curu uses the host point of view in order to push his agenda.
In his third mention:
On October 01 2011 04:54 Curu wrote: The Incognito case can come from someone who has talked to him more than me.
Curu defers the case to “someone who has talked to him more”. Of course, this someone is Mig. What is Curu trying to do here? He is subtly undermining the lynch by supporting it from the sidelines while having Mig do all the heavy lifting. What does this accomplish? Curu is trying to distance himself from the lynch so that he does not take the responsibility for it once Incog flips town.
I know for a fact that Curu has been persuading Mig of how "scummy" Incog is, ever since night 1. I am betting that Mig's case against Incognito finds its inception somewhere in a skype conversation between Mig and Curu. Its possible Mig had the idea first, but I'm almost certain that the man who watered the flower has four letters in his name.
First this from the thread
On October 01 2011 04:54 Curu wrote:
Jackal declares uncertainty in himself in calling me and Mig Town when we are almost 100% confirmed Town.
The Incognito case can come from someone who has talked to him more than me.
THREE pieces of undeniable evidence within a line of each other? Yes please! Notice how curu first calls himself "confirmed town", reminding *everyone* of his incredible and undeniable status. The he ties himself to Mig "hey guys, we have the same alignment" then he sets up Mig to make the case against Incognito, so Curu can later say that *he* didn't spearhead the lynch against Incognito. Pretty fascinating that I have this PM from two hours earlier indicating that Curu is hardly unsure. If he thinks Incognito is red, then where the hell is his analysis?
From: Curu [ 2217 posts | Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: Re: Mr.Fluffles Date: 10/1/11 03:23 I think the evil Incognito took him, I saw him muttering to himself about hairballs earlier.
Original Message From NotChezinu: Is lost! Do you know where he is?
I detect someone pushing a hidden agenda. Its funny how conviction can also turn to doubt, lets note a brief conversation I had with Curu over IRC
[13:06] <@MrFluffles> i actually would rather talk about incognito [13:06] <Curu> but with Mig's opinion that he is more likely badly posting Townie it's worth another look [13:06] <Curu> mm [13:06] <@MrFluffles> the case against him is somewhat strong [13:06] <@MrFluffles> but I have a hard time deciding [13:07] <Curu> yes I am having trouble deciding [13:07] <@MrFluffles> because I know incog and I'm not sure he would play scum like this [13:07] <Curu> if he's really this apparent as scum [13:07] <Curu> but then again like [13:07] <Curu> does this evne look like Town paly [13:07] <Curu> would be play Town like this [13:07] <Curu> he* [13:07] <Curu> the only talk I've had with him is him asking me about what I discuss with you [13:07] <@MrFluffles> that is the question of the hour [13:08] <Curu> for whatever reason he thought I was in contact with you [13:08] <@MrFluffles> oh, I told him I had given you a cookie [13:09] <Curu> was really really bad [13:09] <Curu> his prplhz case [13:10] <@MrFluffles> :-/ [13:10] <@MrFluffles> I can see parts of it [13:10] <@MrFluffles> still not entirely damming [13:11] <@MrFluffles> I don't know I feel like I'm working with fewer peices of evidence than I need [13:11] <Curu> it seems like a lot of [13:11] <Curu> post by post fishing for scummy stuff that isn't actually there [13:11] <Curu> and I know he is a big advocate against that [13:12] <Curu> he was also fishing for a vig shot on prpl [13:12] <Curu> which is odd considering scum decided to hit him [13:12] <Curu> but thats a lot of wifom [13:12] <@MrFluffles> maybe he thought prpl was a threat and seeing he was not going to get vigied shot him instead? [13:12] <@MrFluffles> is that a possibility? [13:14] <@MrFluffles> *poke* [13:14] == Curu_ [webchat@bas4-toronto02-1177978539.dsl.bell.ca] has joined #cookiesandkitties [13:14] <Curu_> huh internet derp [13:15] <Curu_> but I really don't see how prplhz was in any way a shot [13:15] <Curu_> shot for being a threat [13:15] <Curu_> I mean [13:15] <@MrFluffles> true [13:15] <@MrFluffles> still a bucket of wifom [13:15] <Curu_> yep [13:15] <@MrFluffles> its not like he could have blueslipped, he was mute [13:15] <Curu_> mmhm [13:16] <Curu_> another thing though [13:16] <Curu_> Mig was rbed not me [13:16] <Curu_> although I was confirmed by the mod to be Town lol [13:16] <@MrFluffles> wait what? [13:16] <@MrFluffles> when did that happen? [13:16] <Curu_> from their posts risknuke and Incog are the two that seem to most heavily believe Mig is the most confirmed Townie [13:16] <Curu_> the rb? [13:17] <Curu_> or the mod confirm? [13:17] <@MrFluffles> confirm [13:17] <Curu_> Kurumi wanted to modkill us both [13:17] <Curu_> there is no possible way he would od that if we were both Townie or both Mafia [13:17] <Curu_> and got really mad at the PM colours thing [13:17] <Curu_> when he did that I was 100% sure Palmar was Mafia [13:18] <@MrFluffles> I see [13:18] == Curu [webchat@bas4-toronto02-1177978539.dsl.bell.ca] has quit [Ping timeout] [13:18] <@MrFluffles> anyway, yeah, I'm not sold on killing incog, which is why I wanted your advice [13:18] <@MrFluffles> you are smart and like 95% town [13:18] <@MrFluffles> more if what you say is true [13:19] <Curu_> yeah I am also wondering if scum Incog would post that badly [13:19] <Curu_> like trying to start the Erandorr wagon right before Palmar was getting lynched [13:19] <Curu_> but he dropped Erandorr immediately and went after prplhz instead [13:20] <Curu_> while I think Erandorr looked far scummier than prplhz even after Palmar flip [13:21] <@MrFluffles> huh [13:21] <Curu_> Incog's play doesn't really make sense [13:21] <Curu_> =\ [13:21] <Curu_> unless he is a bad player [13:21] <Curu_> as either Town or scum [13:21] <Curu_> I've never played with him before [13:21] <Curu_> but I'm pretty sure he isn;t [13:21] <@MrFluffles> read PYP:Insane [13:21] <@MrFluffles> he is a town MONSTER [13:22] <@MrFluffles> like day 1 he herpderped [13:22] <@MrFluffles> into peg three scum right off the bat [13:22] <@MrFluffles> he is hardly "bad" [13:22] <Curu_> mm [13:22] <Curu_> like he mentions Erandorr and jcarl [13:22] <Curu_> during the Palmar lynch [13:22] <Curu_> right after it he drops them both and says prplhz [13:23] <Curu_> nothing about the Palmar flip made Erandorr or jcarl look worse [13:23] <Curu_> err [13:23] <Curu_> look better [13:23] <Curu_> and I didn't see anything prpl did after it either to make him look more scummy [13:25] <@MrFluffles> it boils down to this, I'm uncomfortable with the incog lynch, because its confusing, if you are supporting it however I'll vote with you, I mean I've reviewed the evidence like 12 times now, I'm *still* unsure [13:25] <Curu_> haha [13:25] <Curu_> I'm still waiting for something [13:26] <Curu_> and I need to look at some of Incog's past games [13:26] <@MrFluffles> can I ask what "something" is? [13:27] <Curu_> PMs bhetween Incog and someone else [13:27] <Curu_> I awnt to discuss with them a bit [13:27] <@MrFluffles> okdokie [13:27] <@MrFluffles> when can I expect a final awnser? [13:28] <@MrFluffles> because if we don't go for incog I need to get a case against jcarl written up [13:28] <Curu_> hopefully today [13:28] <@MrFluffles> can you PM me whatever you decide? [13:28] <Curu_> yep yep [13:28] <Curu_> shall I talk to you or the cat [13:29] <@MrFluffles> PM NotChezinu, I'm only on the cat for sending ;-P [13:29] <Curu_> one other thing that bugs me [13:30] <Curu_> Incog was asking me to read over jcarl and form a read on him [13:30] <Curu_> if they were both scum I don't think he would be pulling my attention to him like that [13:31] <Curu_> which is also weird cause he asked for jcarl not Erandorr [13:31] <Curu_> but then went and voted Erandorr int he thread [13:31] <@MrFluffles> do you see that as a scummy contradiction? [13:32] <Curu_> I told him I leaned null on jcarlk [13:32] <Curu_> which could be why he went for Erandorr instead [13:32] <Curu_> in that case I think if Incog flips Mafia jcarl looks more Townie [13:34] <Curu_> hm [13:34] <Curu_> I'd really need to talk to Mig [13:35] <@MrFluffles> go for it [13:36] <@MrFluffles> I need to leave now, so please do me a favor and PM me your conclusions
Now, someone explain to me, please how we went from "wow, there is all this evidence against the lynch" and "doubt everywhere" to
On October 02 2011 08:05 Curu wrote: Also Incognito is probably scum.
because he didn't have a long conversation with errador in PMs? Read that IRC log and realize how damn scummy curu is every time I bring up a point against incog or for incog he pull the opposite direction, he is intentionally casting doubt about Incognito, while not owning up for it. Now out of the blue he has concluded incog is scum. Happily for him, he won't take the blame when Incog flips green, oh, no, not at all. You know who will be blamed? Mig, of course. Curu set him up. When/if mig dies to the inevitable backlash Curu will look like a golden boy, he was "reluctant" to lynch Incognito and led the wagon on Palmar, and is "closely tied" to Mig. What a feat of scumtastic engineering. Too bad he didn't count on me.
Conclusion:
Curu is mafia. 1) The Palmar lynch was a bus. 2) Only Curu and Mig could stand to gain from this bus. 3) Curu artificially emphasizes that he is the opposite alignment than Palmar. 4) The PM ‘slip’ is is a setup. 5) Curu keeps emphasizing that he is ‘mod-confirmed town’ based on his perception of “fairness”. At absolutely NO time does Kurumi ever suggest that anything related to the fairness of modkilling Curu. 6) Curu has dropped off the map in the past day, and has not been as outwardly aggressive - after all, he is ‘confirmed townie’ 7) From irc evidence, Curu is super wishy-washy about the Incognito lynch but two hours later, gets all defensive and says that he will not consider voting for anyone other than Incognito. 8) Curu’s in-thread attacks on Incognito are weak at best. He passes on the burden of analysis to Mig in order to avoid responsibility for the lynch and set Mig up for a fall.
Curu has been taking undeserved townie credit from the host and from his constant emphasis of the dichotomy with Palmar. He is blatantly pushing mafia agendas behind the scenes, and thus must be mafia.
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