[GG] Red Army Mafia
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coltrane
Chile988 Posts
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coltrane
Chile988 Posts
Any of you know me, i havent played mafia here ever. I dont trust any of you right now, and i am willing to use you all to get all those traitor bastards. I dont know you either, so i dont have any prejudgment. If elected I will lynch at random on day 1, I dont mind if they are vets or newbs, im not wasting the lynch on inactives, cause they will be modkill anyway, i dont know who is vet and who is knew, so i read all voices. I havent read previous games, just the last one. I know a lot of shit and have a quick mind. I will start disposing the 3 extra votes to active townies and spread them, so they wont make any difference. As the game progres i will dispose less votes, so i will gain votes gradually. I havent decided yet how, wanna make some calculations about how many mafia are out there first. I have a really good strategy, i will post it and after this i will be dead tomorrow unless i am office and have bodyguards. Ukranians can rolecheck, so there are 4 options: More than one Ukranian rolechecking the same guy --> they lose KP not knowing Ukranian rolecheck Ukranian --> they lose KP knowing Ukranian rolecheck NKVD as Ukranian --> Better thing could happen to town and lose KP Ukranian rolecheck Townie --> they gain KP In the other hand: NKVD rolecheck Townie --> do ukranians can conceal their ID? (if they cant we can abuse this) NKVD rolecheck Ukranian --> could be NKVD undercover. So for now NKVD cant be trusted. I say they should infiltrate the mafia and play by their own for a while. We should trust their ability to make mafia hit mafia hunting NKVD, i think is the most dificult place to be now. Oh, i forgot... office man is inmune to DT (his role becomes Field Marshal to NKVD and Mafiya checks) so rolecheck runners NOW. Im voting for myself. We also discovered the body of redtooth lying in the mud today. After deserting the army, he apparently attempted to go to a local tavern for a shot of vodka. Unfortunately for him, but fortunately for the people’s justice, some Ukrainians had other ideas and blew out his brains, as well as stripping him naked. All that was left on him were a pair of pennies on top of his eyelids. How could this not being a clue, Ace? It clearly points to "some Ukranians" and descrives behaviors. Its related to death rituals (i believe more than one) But i agree it wont help to much right now, just checked the 54 profiles to see any clear, and there is nothing yet... | ||
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
On July 29 2009 17:37 Ace wrote: ok there are a few reasons I wouldn't vote for you: 1.) You say you're so sure you'd be dead tomorrow - how? Thats just really out of the blue bs as no one knows you and you haven't posted anything that could get you killed at the moment. 2.) You have some grand plan - great. If you were so sure you'd be dead why would you hide it? If the plan is really that good why not tell us, get yourself elected and live a bit longer? Some of us aren't stupid enough to elect some guy and then wait to hear his plan - tell us now or give up hope of being elected. 3.) Why would an NKVD Agent want to disguise them self as Ukrainian? That would lead to them getting killed if they got role checked. I'm hoping they really aren't that bad. Sure they could take the chance a Mafia checks them and hey they are in the Mafia circle - but when their kills don't sync up that same night what do you think happens? :/ 4.) For someone who "knows a lot of shit and has a quick mind" you've already made a huge mistake. You propose that you will lynch at random. Oh really? So instead of trying to glean more information by questioning suspects you'd rather spin the wheel and see who it lands on? Oh how is that different that a townie that randomly votes for whomever they feel like? Why would we want you as Field Marshal? You'd be pretty useless. 5.) Lastly, going with the someone who has a quick mind idea...why would you spread your votes out to townies? You don't know if they are Ukrainian scum or not so how will you know they are using their votes with pro-town(Army) benefits in mind? You don't because even if you were an NKVD Agent I doubt you'd investigate all 3 of them in time to know. Hence, it's a bad idea to do so. 1)I could be as dead as any townie. I am pretty sure there are plenty of mafia, cuz if there are not so much this would be unbalanced. They have a grotesque KP after first night unless they are less than 6, we are 54, 1/9 of them as mafia is not likely. And even if it was like that they could have 5 or 6 KP on night two. Any runner will be checked, so all of them who dont make it are most likely death by day 2 unless is mafia or NKVD. I think is good to grab DTS on me today, and in someone everyday, and mafia is going to kill every single sureshot, so i am dead anyway and you too. 2) Im doing my maths right now, posted it and erased it cause i saw something wrong with my numbers. Let me finish it and i will post it, of course. I dont mind if i died and town wins because of my numbers. 3)As said before... Ukranian KP deppend on their detection. While more Ukranians are shown by DT less people DIE. So NKVD disguised as Ukranian lower their DT effectiveness and therefor their killpower. 4)Show me 1 suspect if i win, maybe you are right in *only* this point. 5)I said SPREAD, im not giving my vote to someone in particular, i just wont vote 4 times for someone unless we have good reasons. I cant DT so clues should be the way into this game to me,not DT. | ||
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
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coltrane
Chile988 Posts
And while NKVD shows as Ukranian they cant trust each other if DT them | ||
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
Ukranians dont know each other. So their DT are independent. we use THIS FORMULA (check my maths if you want): All of we are m=53 (of course the ukranian doesnt check himself) mafia are n and this represent how many different dets they could get. And this one: Just townies are m (thats 54-mafias) mafia are n and this represent how many worst cases (all dt goes to different townies) so, first i have: (in scientific notation) mafia::how many groups::how many worst cases. 1::53::52 2::1431::1275 3::26235::19600 4::367290::211876 5::4.18711e+06::1.7123e+06 6::4.04754e+07::1.07376e+07 7::3.41149e+08::5.35247e+07 8::2.55862e+09::2.15553e+08 9::1.73418e+10::7.08931e+08 10::1.07519e+11::1.91733e+09 11::6.1579e+11::4.28056e+09 12::3.28421e+12::7.89865e+09 13::1.64211e+13::1.20332e+10 14:: 7.74136e+13::1.50845e+10 15::3.45781e+14::1.54713e+10 16::1.46957e+15::1.28758e+10 17::5.96472e+15::8.5975e+09 18::2.31961e+16::4.53757e+09 19::8.66803e+16::1.85597e+09 20::3.12049e+17::5.73166e+08 21::1.08474e+18::1.29024e+08 22::3.64868e+18::2.01601e+07 23::1.18979e+19::2.0358e+06 24::3.76766e+19::118755 25::1.16044e+20::3276 26::3.48131e+20::27 The second column growths MUCH FASTER than the third, but that the difference is huge when it comes to more than 6 DTS, so, lets say mafia are 6, pretty sure they are more, they technically kill every two days, so they mostly will have a potential KP of 6, 1/9 of townies, in the time townies get 2 lynch to put on the 6 mafias. Thats not balanced, give caller some credit... with 9 it has a better balance, but if there are 12 people appearing as ukranians we balance this to our favor. There is NOTHING random here, is statistically correct. Like poker. While in 9 they have 1 of 20 to make an allkill in 12 they only have 1 of 400. And even if they get the allkill the killing power will be 9 anyway with 3 agents. And in much cases, when 11 of them succed on DT townies some of them will not kill because they are townies aswell. Again, if we have 4 DT we are even better. Having our DTs as ukranians always benefits us. They even difficult the ukranians joining toghether. I have tested many cases, like when game advances we will notice less benefits on this due to the targets will reduce for them to DT So think again, we surely have less DT than them, is easyer for them hunt down agents, and yes, they are our key, so they need to disguise as ukranians, is the only way they will be safe, they will lower KP, and even may infiltrate ukranians So, you know now, encourage our agents to infiltrate ukranian scum and our mother russia will be stronger. edit: didnt knew that : 7 was so splitted it. And said 1 of 40, is clearly 1 of 400. | ||
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
No problem! Its quite simple, but the numbers are really big. It is called combinatory. You want to know how many posible cases are from something to happen... lets say I have 1 dice, that is the first collum I have 6 posible results, thats the second row. I have 5 usefull values, thats the third (just 5 others are no mafia) So, when i have 2 dices in first collumn i have many posible rolls, 21 posible, some of them are the same. Finally i will only have 6 couples among those 2 not mafia. With these small numbers it closes sooner, as the inflexion point is when mafia is 1/4 of town. Then the third collumn start to shrink again. what i did was consider a 53 sided dice to 54 players, because you wont rolecheck on yourself. And did it from 1 dice to 26, because in 27 you cant have a clean DT for ukranians, they would always detect other ukranian, exept in one only case. as i used c++ to computate it the numbers are in scientific notation, so 6.92568e+10 is meaning 70KKK and 4.90131e+6 is meaning 50KK | ||
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
On July 29 2009 23:13 Shikyo wrote: Let us know the names of all the cheaters =) Hmmm and it might actually this time around be beneficial for some townies to act like they were mafia. What an interesting game. i think you are right. who is cheating? and how could you cheat? | ||
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
Is better for town if NKVD appears as ukranian to DT cuz that way mafia gets less info from their DTS and town gets the exact same info. | ||
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
If there are 9 rebels and 6 agents one of them being RC tonight and death tomorrow is MUCH posible. If he is an NKVD Agent what makes you think he will live 2 days to use up all his rolechecks? We act on behavioral things mostly, mafia doesnt, they will start sweeping first and will kill anyone who they find that is not on their team. If they are not confident of one of their own then they have to use another night checking. To RC is not a good way of checking, cause NKVD will still appear Ukranian, even after his dts are gone. The best way could be setting up a killing, and that may require 2 nights instead of one. So by claming to be ukranians they win at least 1 night, sometimes 2 and could be more. Under this conditions i would suggest ANYONE who could appear to be ukranian to do so, and i would say NKVD shouldnt be on the office. Given the rule set we have the chance to screw their ability to propper rolecheck, wtf lets do it. Once again let's assume our enemies aren't stupid. How is an NKVD Agent going to get into the Rebel organization? And yes, wont be easy, but our DT would have for sure at least 1 confirmed townie where to deliver his info. The thing is he doesnt need to get into. If they think he could me ukranian he will still have an extra night and even when he is rolechecked and dont get info about it is even more the info that ukranians lose. | ||
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
seriously??? how deep... | ||
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
On July 30 2009 05:23 Ace wrote: yep. Between your math that makes no sense because it works on some retarded assumptions like every NKVD agent getting lucky with checks, and information not spreading really fast (which it does) and the fact you don't know how many roles are present - to this. Trying to convince NKVD agents to go undercover when they'd have a hell of a time convincing the town their target is a rebel and they'd have to find the dumbest Ukrainian around to let them in AND survive. This is why you won't be elected. You can't even think through the most basic of scenarios. Of course i have thought about it. But there will be clues to. And NKVD will have where comunicate their information always. On July 30 2009 05:33 Ace wrote: of course the NKVD agent won't lie about the results of his role check. But if all of them are undercover and an NKVD agent checks another NKVD agent the guy flips Rebel. So now we are about to lynch 2 NKVD Agents. Of course the same exact thing happens if an NKVD Agent RCs a Rebel. Of course it's even worse this time because the NKVD Agent will be killed immediately assuming the Ukrainians aren't stupid. They don't have to RC him right away - just ask him who he killed previously and who he will kill the next night. In both situations the NKVD agent loses or everyone has an option to lie that takes even more time to disprove. No one has yet to answer how you sort through the liars because there is the case that both people are telling the truth, both are innocent but since both of them went undercover they both appear guilty. Ukrainians win. The thing is, if you are ukranian and you contact me as an ukranian and ask me about my killing list i just RC you for free and have the rest of the day to spread information. even mass PM to everyone else a in-case-i-die-tonight-he-RC-me | ||
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
On July 30 2009 05:49 Falcynn wrote: I wish I could say something here to help argue why having NKVD agents pose as Ukrainians is a bad idea...but I think Ace has pretty much covered all of the reasons. Probably the only advantage I can see is that the threat of the detectives doing this will cause the Ukrainians to hesitate in contacting each other after a successful role check. Considering the fact that the town already has a pretty big advantage, doing this can arguably be worth the detectives time as it stalls any form of organization between the Ukrainians. However, I think anyone who thinks that the detectives can easily infiltrate a decently sized portion of the network are seriously underestimating how smart these guys can be. Just the threat of DTs posing as Ukrainians is going to make them a hell of a lot more cautious in terms of who they trust. Verifying someone as Ukrainian is, as Ace mentioned, as easy as asking them who they killed the previous night or who they'll kill the next night. The detective would have to be incredibly lucky to get either of these questions correct, and if he doesn't he'll be killed. Basically he'll go through all of this work to get just a single Ukrainian, which can easily be done without all of this pretending. In short, I'm in favor of NKVD posing as Ukrainian, but I'm heavily against this idea of them trying to infiltrate the network as it'll just be a waste of time and effort on their part imo. The first idea is a plus granted. The second is just speculation, i wouldn risk my hand on that, but could be fkn awesome. | ||
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
On July 30 2009 05:53 Ace wrote: come on L, let's be serious here. In fact assume I'm a Ukrainian Rebel and you're an NKVD agent. do you REALLY think you'd ever successfully convince me you really are a Rebel and that you could get me to give up information about what I know and then get me lynched? The plan only works assuming our enemies are completely fucking stupid. I'm not playing the game based on that because it's an epic fail. Watch the NKVD agents all try it and all die. I guarantee it if the Rebels are even half competent. They will die anyway if they got checked as anything else.... If they are checked as ukranians they will actually talk to an 100% ukranian before die = free RC | ||
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
On July 30 2009 06:00 Ace wrote: Impossible to call. No idea how the NKVD agents individually select who they want to Role Check. you can't get IN the group - that's the problem. Once again think of it basically like this: Ace - NKVD Agent Scamp - Ukrainian Rebel Ace - o hai scamp, I checked you out. You're Rebel, so am I! <3 Scamp - o ok. cool. This is L and coltrane, their rebels too. Sup? Ace - lol newbs I'm an Agent. GG. Do you really think you'd do that? or is it more like this: Ace -o hai scamp, I checked you out. You're Rebel, so am I! <3 Scamp - that's nice hoe. Who did you kill last night? Ace - oh I killed...um...Foolishness. (I have no idea who really did so I'm guessing) Scamp(who knows the truth because he knows who killed Foolishness) - o ok. Well I can't trust you yet so who are you going to kill tomorrow night? Ace - um...I'll kill LucasWoj! Scamp - ok well when Lucas shows up dead I'll let you know! 2 problems already fucks the Agent over: I die immediately because Scamp knows the truth and kills me. I survive till the next day but Lucas doesn't die unless I get super lucky. If he doesn't I'm killed. The best I could do is roleclaim to the town that I'm an NKVD agent and found Scamp. Scamp of course says he's also an NKVD Agent and was undercover also. How do you sort through the liars? Even worse - what if Scamp really is an NKVD agent. Come on, I know what I'm talking about here. You guys are assuming the Rebels are so dumb as not to ask 2 simple questions which would destroy any NKVD agent without a lot of information ahead of time. Your dialogues are so inocent that i am ashamed. NKVD doesnt need to contact rebels. The rebels need to contact rebels. It turns that any rebel would be risking giving up himself if he roleclaim to NKVD possing as rebbel. coltrane (Rebbel):r u ukranian? who you killed lastnight? Ace (NKVD):I hitted L but he survives... and you? coltrane: i RC you, didnt hit. Who are you hitting tonight? Ace (NKVD):no idea, L is townie, but lived lastnight... if protected we lose KP, think i will RC. coltrane: i dont trust you. I will hit L tonight. Ace: I dont trust you either. so ace tells L he is going to be hitted, and that coltrane is 100% rebbel. Of course, a NKVD who RC an Ukranian doesnt contact him. | ||
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
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coltrane
Chile988 Posts
On July 30 2009 06:19 So no fek wrote: There's certainly risks in the NKVD disguising themselves as rebels, however, I think that's the entire point of their role and the rebels not knowing each other. To throw a wrench into things. The ability to disguise yourself as a townie/another blue is nearly worthless. If you're rolechecked by an NKVD, you're safe to kill - the only reason they wouldn't kill you is if you disguised yourself as a townie, and they'd rather leave a townie alive and look for a red to kill - other than that, the only benefit of the ability is to disguise yourself as blue, and cause as much havoc as you possibly can. They cant, because they wont have a good kill list until they meet up together. They must use all of their KP killing anyone DTed as non ukranian. And everytime they DT an ukranian they will need to check it. And that will happen more times if our DTS disguise as ukranians. | ||
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
Is way better have NKVD disguised: They reduce KP They may live longer They keeps mafia from banding so easy If a mafia RC him and discover him he would have an extra target for the town The flaws are in yur words: Is to easy to check :WRONG, is easyer to check townie, you dont need to PM him. Its risky : WRONG, is safer for the town as they cut KP, is safer for them as they could live another day. Do you plan to get to the time limit just by luck? I would preffer having chances on our side, it is a huge plus. | ||
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
VOTE FOR ME, I KNOW WHAT I AM DOING. | ||
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
On July 30 2009 07:02 Ace wrote: L when you can prove that NKVD/NKVD checks with both being possible Rebels can be avoided and the town can sift through the lies then you can discuss a plan with me. As of now all of you are acting on so many assumptions that are easily crushed by any competent Rebel that it's laughable. I'm kind of wishing I was a Rebel now so I could prove to you guys how to catch an undercover Agent. sorry, but what a pompuos fuck., You should be discussing plans WITH THE TOWN, you are no one, i dont care if you are vet and i am newb, YOU ARE WRONG, YOU ARE DIVIDING THE TOWN, YOUR BEHAVIOR ISNT TO BE TRUSTED. Gonna tell this once again I havent played ever with any of you, and i dont trust anyone and i dont have any prejudgment. I dont care if you are a vet or a newb, and thats exactly why all of you should be voting for me. | ||
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