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I'm pretty sure it's a self serving role (playing to his own win condition and not ours), but would the town's best interest be in keeping or removing them? I can't decide, maybe I should sleep on it. Well, its obviously in the best interest of the town to keep methods of killing mafia. If there's a lack of information on mafia suspects he will be less useful, if there's far more he will be more useful.
Either way, determining how we should 'manage' the contract killer is 100% dependant on information we don't currently have.
And now, to read ten pages. Brb.
Alright, I just checked the rest of the thread.
New issues:
Without knowing the CK's win condition, we can't precisely determine WHY or HOW he will act. We can, however, look at a few conditions:
1) The CK's game ends when the standard townie/mafia game ends.
2) If the CK dies by drawing too much animosity, he will die because the town/mafia will know who he is.
3) The CK's mode of action provides him with superior information regarding the two sides.
It seems, in my mind, rather PREDICTABO that the CK would act fairly neutrally until he has enough information to precipitate a quick loss for one side by cutting out their most important roles/dropping their KP.
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We shouldn't try to be "managing" the Contract Killer
Here is a compelling argument for the Contract Killer to side with the town
Took you a grand total of 2 lines to start contradicting your own position. You make a case for getting medic protection, but that's pretty much exactly what I said the CK would do: take neutral, defensive actions at the start of the game. If his victory condition is survival, the CK will want to play defensively until he can end the game, because unlike the town or mafia, there is only one of him and he cannot afford to die.
We lose nothing by cooperating with the CK and only have potential gains Apart from giving him information on blue members of town; Don't assume the CK is going to ask for the services of a single blue member of town for the entire game.
Either way, the CK is going to want to side with the side that seems strongest at any period in time. If we're getting smashed, he'll side with mafia in order to assure he doesn't get picked off during night deaths. If mafia's getting smashed he has no incentive to do anything other than contract for medics and play the waiting game.
That's all, however, assuming his objectives are based on survival. IF that's the case, his utility is 100% based on our momentum, so lets focus on quality clue analysis.
Its quite possible his objectives are something like "kill 1 mafia member and kill 1 detective" or something off the wall like that, so 100% basing our strategy on an unknown is risky.
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Way to quote me out of context. let me state it differently. Other people are saying/planning on using the Contract Killer to the town's advantage. I am suggesting that the Contract Killer use the town to his advantage and trying to come up with scenarios where that might be possible. That would be managing his use, yes.
Any off the wall things like that where he has to find certain people/roles to kill, he is even more better off using the town because then he can eventually find a Detective and start doubling his efforts in his search for which roles he needs to kill. Assuming, again, that its roles. I just made up an example of a possible set of goals he might have to accomplish.
All I'm saying is that we can provide all the incentives in the world, but its ultimately how healthy we are as a town that determines just how much incentive we have to offer. A few inactive townies and 0 medics left can't really offer much to a CK. The focus right now with respect to CKs should be identifying mafia that we want killed and getting the ball rolling on cutting their KP. Once their KP drops and the value of mafia hits increase, medic protection will be worth more and CKs will have much less to worry about from stray mafia hits.
If CK demands more services from other blues, then something would seem a bit odd. Why would it seem odd? You have no idea what the CK's goals are. If the CK's goals are role based, getting more role information might be his prime desire. If its survival he can stay on medic.
This is EXACTLY what i was talking about; you can't assume to predict the CK's game perfectly because we don't even know what they're after.
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Targeting inactives is hit and miss. Well, that's kinda a given for the mayoral lynch, isn't it? The only hard piece of data we have which directly co-relates to town success is being used to direct our first move; somehow I don't see that as a terrible move. If people have exams, like I do, that's fine, but at least the vast majority that do have posted something about it.
Unless someone comes out and completely self incriminates them self(and I'm more of the opinion that Quickstriker is a rage filled retard rather than mafia), ALL our choices are hit and miss. The question is HOW hit and miss are our choices at this point?
Basically we've got a few options:
-Clue analysis: on the first day has never been a fantastic method of finding mafia.
-Lynch someone in the three you randomly picked; I see no reason why this is a good course of action unless you know something the town doesn't. I mean, why focus on killing off good active players if we're using a random heuristic to select them?
-Lynch inactives: Personally I think this is kinda weak because of finals, but the list of suspicion is smaller than i'd have anticipated given most of us are doing finals atm, so that concern might be irrelevant. The benefit of keeping only active players, however, has been proven throughout a number of mafia games. If we hit a mafia laying low: awesome. If we hit a townie who wasn't going to be active anyways, the loss is substantially reduced.
So if i weigh up the costs and benefits, it seems like inactive lynching is the only one which does better than random selection at this point. If you've got some secret plan or something, I don't see how you're going to get people to agree to said secret plan unless you tell them what it is, at which point it isn't as secret. Either way, there's something off about your suggestion.
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the only possibility for a mafia kill stemming from a mafia hit is that there are two or more families. From the amount of kills (3) either the amount of mafia hits per family is either
1) not equal (which would be incredibly fucked up)
2) 2 or more.
Which means that:
1) Bockit was killed and reduced the killing power of one of the families to one
2) 1,3,5,etc hits were absorbed by vets or protected by medics.
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Edit via new post:
I assumed 2 families in the statement above but that could very well be wrong. Might be 3, might be more.
In the case of 3, total killing power must be a multiple of 3 given equal hits. This gives us 3/6/9/... base hits. Assuming the mafia kill reduced the killing power by one gives us 3/5/8 if we assume that a mafia family would not go to 0 hits because of a single lost mafia.
Now the dangerous part here is that regardless of the above conclusions:
either:
1) the mafia families are in contact with each other and distributed DT information (but bockit wouldn't have died in such a case)
2) there are multiple mafia infiltrators in whatever town PM circle is being built up.
Also, all these numbers were brought up when i thought three people died. Just realized Nemy died too. FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF >: | CK
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Q: Are you notified about the number of hits prevented on you? Or just the fact that there was a hit which was blocked?
If no one else steps up to admit being hit we have a rather odd situation in our hands.
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While I understand that getting more town controlled lynches earlier is statistically positive in town's favor if we have an overall bias towards hitting mafia, I don't think the overall bias is large enough at this point because of a lack of clue information.
JeeJee's posting behavior in this thread has been around 100% consistent with his normally retarded behavior, so that's not an element of concern. Essentially we're running 100% off bockits information.
Lets recap motherfuckers:
1) No one knew about the existance of multiple mafia families, not even the mafia. .
2) Bockit was either trying to defend a fellow mafia or trying to associate himself with someone he thought was green in order to appear normal.
3) Bockit didn't know he was going to die that night, didn't think it was possible for him to die. Would he defend another mafia member so early, or was he just settling into his behind the scenes roll?
I dunno. These are super subjective questions. If someone can work at least 1 set of clues to JeeJee, that would be a start, but I haven't seen any proper analysis on it.
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All of the above is based on what we can currently determine. I assumed that mafia didn't know about each other because one of their numbers ended up dying and I assumed that bockit didn't know he was going to die.
It is possible that the above assumptions are false, but I think the gain for killing off a mafia on the first night provides far less confusion and benefits for the mafia to work with than is reasonable to assume they knew and acted anyways. Where Jee Jee is concerned, please view the following video, because we used to link it repeatedly to make fun of him.
+ Show Spoiler +
Haven't really seen anything else which directly incriminates him.
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JeeJee
PM me the site you use to generate those ridiculous blocks of text.
In other news my last exam is thursday :D.
if JeeJee gets lynched and flips Green/Blue Im probably gonna just stop playing. : (. This is an incredibly stupid move, and I suggest people listen to the general "this is retarded" sentiment regarding the bandwagon forming behind JeeJee. Please rethink your votes.
I personally think ver's activity is the most suspicious item we have to work with, and his name can be fit to pretty much half the clues. I'ma vote for him and I suggest that if you're going to bandwagon like a bunch of retards that you do so too. Otherwise, post reasoning and discuss options here.
And back to studying.
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I'm guessing mafia would have known that there could have been two mafia families when they figured out they had a small group (5-6 mafia?) and low KP (2-3 probably). That's probably true, but I guess they might have thought that there are like 8 contract killers or something. Either way, if they shared name lists before the first night hits, then bockit's death is incredibly unlikely. Regardless of what each family knew, I find it incredibly hard to believe that bockit knew he was going to die and set himself up accordingly.
Man, studying is not as fun as mafia.
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The only reason to play it cool when someone's trying to lynch you is because you hope that you have people in the list that can switch off at the last moment, or because you're hoping you'll get pitied and detectives will check you during the night. The other option, dying to give the town information, isn't one you'll accept a DEATH for, since if you knew you were innocent prior to being killed you'd be able to provide stronger clue links elsewhere or role-call at the last minute.
So either ver's mafia or a mafia godfather trying to get a circle of trust started.
Either way, if ver pops up red tomorrow and I'm right, we're going to have a LOT of leads to go after because of how people are reacting to this.
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Oh, there's also the possibility that this is somehow linked to CK activity too, but I have no idea if that's plausible or likely.
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What kinda idiot says "oh woe is me, thanks for the game, learn from your mistakes!" and expects to be saved?
You. Right now. Unless you want to die, in which case you're hurting whatever side you're on.
Thanks for making this analysis jokishly easy.
1. Any smart DT wouldn't bother to waste a check on someone who so obviously going to die and who's role will be revealed in a matter of posts. Please do pray that the DT(s) left in this game are not bubbling buffoons. If you DONT get killed. Durr, you're a good player, yet you magically forgot how to read? Interesting.
2. I don't expect any one to change their votes. Firstly, because when I have indeed defended myself, no one even bothered to respond. This tells me mafia, along with townies, have decided to ignore me. Cool beans. Secondly, I don't know many of you. This is my third game and the most attention I've received, period. Outside of ace, ver, and caller in past games, I haven't spoken to 90% of you all--- and you expect me to be capable of some grand coalition building escapade? I mean, I think highly of myself....but damn. So you expect to die? Your defense has been, for the large part, a joke. Multiple people have acknowledged this.
Lastly, why would I role call, period, even if I wasn't going to be lynched? There are multiple players with the same role-- how is there any way to verify I am telling the truth short of a DT check (which I already said is not going to happen) or my death? That's just stupid and unnecessary. Because the town has a limited amount of blue roles and even if you out yourself to the mafia by claiming DT or some shit, you will have saved the town a wasted lynch if you are innocent. If you were the godfather and did get checked, the DT now believes in you and you can act as his mouthpiece or form a circle of townie trust.
This is REALLY obvious, REALLY basic stuff. You aren't a bad player. Stop playing the dumb card because its obvious that it shouldn't even be in your fucking deck.
I mean seriously, after that last post i'm 100% certain you're mafia and you're going to try to get a pal to switch off to Quickstriker and get yourself rolechecked. Or were, until i made it lethal for someone to try.
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Its pretty simple. Until I noted that you were a better target than JeeJee, you weren't going to be lynched. Afterwards you were a grand total of ONE VOTE ahead of the other lynch target, and largely remain to be. If you had someone on your list switch to QS, everything i described would have happened. Now that doing so would reveal quite obviously that you're mafia and that your list-switcher are mafia, you won't do it to minimize the damage.
You don't expect to survive NOW because I've pinned you to the wall. At this point you're a butterfly in a pin box, and when night rolls around and your red bleeds out this won't matter. But prior to said pinning, you were obviously dancing around trying to tell the other bees where the honey was at.
I don't expect you to survive this lynch now either, and its pretty ridiculous that your longest and most content filled posts are only now that I've essentially assured that you die. Your prior defenses were obviously on the level of jokes which IS WHY NO ONE BOTHERED TEARING THEM DOWN. You knew this too. You admitted that you're a joke and just spamming around now, yet here you are replying seriously to me.
All I can say is that when you turn out to be red, I'm going to have myself a good strut for the day.
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L lol.... Is it really worth 2-3 mafia changing votes to save her if it would expose them all? If the flip was performed successfully:
1) Versatile does not die. Gets DT checked.
2) DTs get whatever fake role she picked, trust her.
3) Via a circle of trust, she can avoid future lynches.
This really isn't hard to see, and yet the fact that you two are playing at retard so well and so hard means that you're going to look REALLY bad when she flips red.
And as long as you promise to take a few dicks in the ass when I come up green/blue you cuntastical piece of shyt, I'm happy with that. Angry godfathers on day 2. Such a pity.
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And yeah, with the amount of people who have yet to vote, a group of mafia could easily have switched the result of this lynch, and when ver turns godfather blue they look like saints that saved the down from a costly dt/medic/whatever death.
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Well, fuck.
I was pretty sure that would not happen.
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No, but seriously, why would you play vet like that when there are 2 mafia families and you had been marked as suspicious because of activity. Makes no fucking sense.
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I've mentioned briefly that his arguments just don't really fit right, and this was before Ver was lynched. I don't see how calling out the shadiest defense I've ever seen is 'not fitting right'. But feel free to PM me why you think it was forced.
In retrospect with the blue popping up it looks different, but without that knowledge the way versatile was playing compared to previous games and compared to other players was obviously off to the point of making her the number 1 candidate by far.
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EPT
