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[N] Sicilian Mafia Style

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Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
June 05 2013 17:43 GMT
#48
I'd be down to join if you kept the smaller post count cap and the nights non-silent.

It would be fun to have a slower paced game that doesn't devolve into extended-IRC mafia.
you gotta dance
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
June 13 2013 19:18 GMT
#60
On June 14 2013 04:00 VisceraEyes wrote:
##Summon: Chezinu

You know not what you do! Do you understand the powers you're playing with here?!
you gotta dance
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
June 16 2013 16:45 GMT
#78
That's fine for me, I don't think I have anything planned. If something comes up, I'll let you know. Otherwise, good luck and have fun, respectively.
you gotta dance
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
June 30 2013 16:51 GMT
#98
Hey, I'm signed up too! I just never had to /in cause I'm cool like that.
you gotta dance
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
July 10 2013 04:09 GMT
#129
Obviously I'm twice the player you guys are. Or else there needs to be an extra slot for my ego.
you gotta dance
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
July 10 2013 04:18 GMT
#131
You might lynch me, but you'll never be able to lynch all of GM's smurfs.
you gotta dance
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
July 16 2013 20:12 GMT
#259
Hey guys.

Right now, the two people I'm most suspicious of are Hapahauli and strongandbig.

Hapahauli:

I'm suspicious of Hapahauli, because of the near pure focus on mechanics and policy he has, that's mostly fluff and not useful.

In his first post, he gives a very general guideline for PMs, that is a particular case, and then he opens up with some fluffy questions. The thing about his questions though, is that he says he's asking them because some people might be afraid of the post limits, but his questions aren't particularly useful for catching scum, and since the questions are fluffy, he'll probably get fluff answers back as well, meaning that it doesn't even help the goal of getting things rolling without wasting our limited post pool. He also spends most of his posts so far just arguing about PMs with Oats. It makes it look like he's posting content, but it doesn't provide anything useful to the town. He had already given his opinion, and the content of his posts are mostly just reiterating it in different ways.

The other thing, is that he seems very concerned with getting discussion started, but there were already discussion-worthy posts present in the thread at the time of his. We had some people already discussing PMs, without the need for Hapa's questions, two people who had called out others as scum, and Tofu had made his first post, which is the basis of the only content Hapa has about other players.

So basically, I don't like Hapa so far because of his focus on talking about PMs, when there were other things in the thread as well, his "concern" with starting discussion, when it had started without him and didn't need his help (He only got 2-3 responses?), and his lack of content, just expressing the same idea over and over.

Related:

Yamato, you said you were going to PM Hapa and give your "expert" opinion on him. Do you have any results yet? What do you think of what I've written.

Strongandbig, you've said that you don't like how Sloosh has several posts only about mechanics and PMs, so what do you think of Hapa?

Strongandbig:

My suspicion of strongandbig was aroused by his first post, mainly by his suspicion of Oats. As brought up by Vivax, he starts off his post with excuses for post behaviour, and then continues with discussion of PM usage. This is pretty fluffy, but it's the next part that gets me.

He says that he's going to follow his own advice and consider PMing Oats because he thinks he's scummy. However, strongandbig is not concrete at all in this post. His plan is to PM people you're suspicious of in order to get a better read on them. So, the straightforward thing to do would be to say "I'm leaning scum on Oats, I'm going to PM him, and figure out his alignment concretely". However, strongandbig doesn't do this, instead he he says that he's "strongly considering" PMing Oats, and that he thinks he looks scummy, but that some of the time he's wrong, but he looks scummy, but he's not sure. It's the wishy-washiness of strongandbig's read on Oats that makes me suspicious of him. It doesn't offer anything to town to be so wishy-washy, but it helps him from having to take a strong stance on him, or promising to town that he'll have a strong stance on him soon, which would seem to be the point of PMing him as per strongandbig's own recommendations for PM usage.

The other things he does are say that the noobs are strongly aggressive, but doesn't offer any real insight into what this means besides that he thinks it's suspicious. He says it could be scummy, but it might not be either. He flip-flops on both of his examples.

So, I find strongandbig scummy because of his wishy-washiness and lack of desire to follow his own advice or provide us with a solid opinion or at least make the promise of providing us one in the near future.

+ Show Spoiler [Strongandbig's post for reference] +
On July 17 2013 00:23 strongandbig wrote:
Okay guys, caught up on the thread from my phone. I'm currently building a circuit at work so that means I'm not working at my computer most of the day. However, I'm not a very spammy player at the best of times, so I don't expect the post limit to really affect me very much; I'm hoping that it's main effect will be to force certain other players in this game to consolidate their posts, which will make the game way easier for me to keep up with.

Regarding the pm policy discussion, I'm torn on several fronts. I like the idea of being open about who we are mason ing and masoned to, as suggested by drh or someone earlier, since it allows connection analysis and also since we can put pressure on people who were masoned to dead townies or scum later in the game. However, if people mason strong townreads as gas been suggested, and then are open about it, we have all the disadvantages of revealing our townreads in any other game - telling scum who to kill. ATM I think the advantages of openness outweigh, so I would caution people against mason ing super strong town reads. Instead I think we should use our masons on either Avon reads or null reads to try to better understand people; if they become town reads because of the Pam's then you can discuss the game in secret, and it they become scum reads then awesome lynch them.

In that vein I'm strongly considering mason ing oatsmaster. His first posts seem quite scummy to me. The pressure on hapa to produce scum reads like seven posts into the game seems manufactured. However, I'm aware that I have a history in two or three or more games of going after oatsmaster when we are actually both town; I'm not always wrong about him I think, and each game it's a different behavior of his that I find scummy, and every time I feel like it's for a good reason, but sometimes I'm wrong. The only pause I have is that oatsmaster seems like he's already been masoned by several people, and if one town person becomes a huge mason nexus then they're an easy target for scum to disrupt our communication. So I'll think about that.

One other thing - these newbies are being pretty weirdly aggressive, not sure why. Kolly is apparently voting drh because of a policy disagreement, not sure how serious this is. If he sticks to this read I'd say it seems manufactured, but it's possible he thinks he's doing a "pressure vote". I want to see how this develops, if he backs off then how he justifies it will be very important. As for malongo, he has like three posts so well have to see where that goes, but ATM there's little reasoning for his vote, which makes me suspicious as well; plus the fact that he's throwing his limited posts around with little content.

I also think the scum reads on sloosh are wrong, or at least premature. I actually agree with him that a dead thread is bad for town and something worth avoiding. It can make it easier for scum to hide from the majority of the thread. Fooling one or two people is much easier than fooling a whole group IMO. I disagree with sloosh's conclusion that we should avoid using our pms though; I think we just need to understand that as townies it's important for us to see the thread as the main part of the game and use pms to help that, and to pressure people who don't. I don't like that his post is only about setup rather than reads, but hopefully in his next 19 posts he will fix that up.

I also want to call out VA and ask for some discussion of reads rather than setup. That's the best way IMO to tell apart whether he's actually scum hiding from pms as some believe or if he's a stubborn townie with a cause.

Also question for discussion: should we save some pm choices for later in the game? When we have more developed reads and pushing people for information and discussing the game outside the thread will probably be more useful?

(1/20)



On July 17 2013 01:36 gumshoe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 16 2013 23:24 kholly wrote:
On July 16 2013 23:16 gumshoe wrote:
On July 16 2013 23:05 kholly wrote:
On July 16 2013 21:53 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On July 16 2013 21:29 kholly wrote:
On July 16 2013 17:34 raynpelikoneet wrote:
No, if someone gets anonymously pardoned the suspicion will obviously be on me. There is no reason i should have claimed as mafia. There is no reason i should have not claimed as town.


Don't believe this guy. I read the Nuclear Winter Mafia game.

Does this make me mafia somehow and if it does, how exactly?

So you are voting for DrH because he is telling people to tell the thread who are they masoned with?
If that's true, what do you think of other people who agree with this idea. Me & Hapa mainly?

yamato, why are you not voting for VE if you think he is scum?
MZ, does yamatos "horrible post" make him mafia? What exactly is horrible in that post?


On July 16 2013 22:43 gumshoe wrote:
On July 16 2013 21:29 kholly wrote:
On July 16 2013 12:43 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
It's important that people are transparent about who they choose to PM. If you aren't, you better have a damn good reason not to. The only good reason for being secretive is that it would somehow reveal yourself as a blue or is necessary for your plans to catch scum.

What are we looking for? Odd player choices. PMs are our chance to put direct pressure on people we have suspicions of without going over our post limits. If someone is trying to influence your opinions/manipulate you via PM you need to call them out in thread. If someone uses PMs to buddy to you by telling you they have complete trust that you are town, that's a red alarm. I don't see why town needs to have a PM line with another townie like that. I think discussing the PM dynamics and any plans/thoughts regarding it is a good starting off point for this game.

ALSO - Look out for those who waste their post limits on empty posts/spam then make an excuse later.

For example - "I had some good points to make yesterday but I went over post limit before I wrote my case and....."



The bolded statement is what informed me that he is mafia. DoctorHelvetica is suppose to be a well known player, yet he is calling for people to roleclaim who they talk to?

On July 16 2013 17:34 raynpelikoneet wrote:
No, if someone gets anonymously pardoned the suspicion will obviously be on me. There is no reason i should have claimed as mafia. There is no reason i should have not claimed as town.


Don't believe this guy. I read the Nuclear Winter Mafia game.


On July 16 2013 21:16 Oatsmaster wrote:
wtf is this bullshit.
Total fucking retardness.

Malongo, Koshi and kholly, start playing the game.

Kholly, why is DrH scum? Also there is a voting thread.

Malongo, why is MZ being polarizing a scumtell?

Koshi, why waste 5% of your limit on a useless post? Absolutely USELESS.

Ok so scumteam is probably,
VE, sloosh, FT and other dudes. Everyone else that has posted I think is town.
Anyone that has strong disagreements for any of my reads, please explain why.


Using bad language doesn't get town anywhere. Thanks for pointing out that there is a voting thread. I didn't see it as it was far down the list. It is now bumped thanks to me. Oats, you should understand that I am playing the game. As you can tell, I am a very efficient scumhunter. Are you scared of this fake and trying to use aggression to get me to conform to the mafia ideals? I would like to say that I will not listen to the threats of terrorists. I will not be bullied. If you are mafia, you should kill you own mafia members for town credit as you always do in most of your games. Vote DH.


I played the nuclear mafia game, and the game before with him as town. Both times he got into early conflicts like this by being transparent. Also how is the nuclear mafia game indicative of his scum play? He was town.

In regards to pms, what does mafia learn by knowing whose pming who? Absolutely nothing, the whole point of pms is that mafia can no longer benefit from certain discussions in any way. Unless scum is being pmed in which case they already know and are already privy to the conversation. How is knowing whose communicating with who more useful for scum then town? If town knows they can co-ordinate a chain, ie I mason D.H then D.H chains oats and oats can pm me through the intermediately (oats mentioned everything one pming him making him the universal intermediatery but thats dumb, and risky). Naturally though the chain requires trust like all things but when done right it allows a certain degree of thread coordination.

The only threat of being open is mafia disrupting pm relationships. This is actually a bit of a problem seeing as we only get one pm, which is why I suggest not mass masoning D.H or someone else, if you must pm an intermediatery you trust.

Other stuff. Tofu: The argument that he pre typed his first post therefore its bad is silly, he ultimately decided to post it. Which is all that really matters, from there just ask yourself, did you find his post helpful? Was it maybe scum trying to comment on setup for easy townie points? Maybe, I personally think his thoughts were helpful (ie the growing risk of the traitor, therefore best to tackle him when he reaches his personal zenith) but if your going to attack him about the post do it for valid reasons.

D.H, Im really going to be wary of people who try to spend alot of there posts early in the day cycle, which Dh has, not being able to fight back is a great excuse and paints the accuser as a villain, im sure at least one or two scum will attempt something of this vien before the games through. His commenting on pming is fine, neither her nor there, its setup stuff to get the ball rolling but the point is hes getting the ball rolling. Which is townie to an extent. What I also really like is that he pressed Tofu and then backed off when he was satisfied with tofus response people please do not leave accusations hanging in the air, they will burn posts and actively hurt town, this interaction (Tofu posts, dh pressures, tofu explains, dh absolves) is the model for how interactions should go between townies if they have a grievance with one another. I think Dh's behaviour here strikes me as a townie trying to get the most out of as little as possible, so he reads green to me for now.

Thats about it.

To be clear, the only person I called scum this whole game is Dr.H. I just said I wouldn't trust rayne and I was referring to a game where he was town.

what does mafia learn by knowing whose pming who?

I won't go into details; it would only hurt town. This is an extremely deadly tool in the hands of a mafia player who knows what he is doing.

PS: Dr.H doesn't even follow his on advice.


I dont care what game you think your playing but were going to need more than that, transparency between townies still matters, dont breadcrumb unless your willing to spit out whatever your trying to say or pm it to the relevant party. And even despite that hiding behind pms is not townie play and I will press anyone who also feels the need to do the above in a smartass way. You are also implying that only a vote backed by an accusation matters, which is bullshit, scum want to throw as much at the fan as possible without getting any backlash and casually calling people scummy without voting them is a great way to do so. I didn't vote for him is a terrible defence. I will vote for you though until you can explain what you mean in thread or through a pm to me or someone I trust, and back up/ drop your Rayne shitflinging.

##Vote: Kholly


What do you think about the concept that scum can only mason 1 person as opposed to town being about to mason two?

Oh and don't worry, I'm talking to town.


Seeing as you still havent answered my questions, in pm or in thread, I'll follow up on you one last time before my vote fixes itself in place. What made you suspect in the first place that scum would have only one pm? Where are you getting this information? Why even bother thinking that if theres no source? Without hard evidence it's a dumb question and a non answer to my own question.

If you do have evidence that begs the question, how would you know anything about scums setup? Also in regards to the bolded, why even imply that you might be asking the question as traitor? Why is that even on your mind, we were in no way discussing traitor so why do you feel the need to clarify that your not the traitor? Did you realize that it might come off as bread crumbing? Answer my questions in pm or in thread please.

Also if your unwilling to pm me for whatever reason if I pm you will you answer me?

Oh and Vivax, is the only alternative to detective Vivax tunnel Vivax? If so keep up the good work I guess... But could you at least make the names obvious? Whose hippy?

Sounds like he got it from you. He's being cute, it seems.

On July 16 2013 22:43 gumshoe wrote:
The only threat of being open is mafia disrupting pm relationships. This is actually a bit of a problem seeing as we only get one pm, which is why I suggest not mass masoning D.H or someone else, if you must pm an intermediatery you trust.



+ Show Spoiler [PM stuff] +

To be clear, I think town should just use their PMs wherever they think it will do the most good. If you have a strong town read and want someone to share reads with, go for it. If there's someone whose alignment you're not sure about and you think you can pressure them and get a better read, go for it. If you trust someone as a good scumhunter and aren't afraid of being manipulated, go for it. Everyone here plays differently, so a unilateral PM policy won't work, and in the end people are going to do whatever they want to anyways. Just think about where you can get the most done and do the most good, and try to help the town.
you gotta dance
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
July 17 2013 04:03 GMT
#322
I don't think Dr. H would be a good Day 1 lynch. I'm leaning more towards town on him, and he's being quite active in the thread, and PM land as well it seems, which will be hard to keep up as scum without becoming fluffy. He's put something of a spotlight on himself, and with my read, I don't think he's a good target for the lynch today.


Dr. H, would you mind explaining your read on Oatsmaster a little more clearly for me, please? Is it basically just that Oats is quick to agree with you about who scum are in PM, but doesn't follow through with it in thread? So, there's a discrepancy between what's happening in thread and PM land? Based on the PMs you shared talking about Tofu, Oats seems somewhat undecided about what he thinks of Tofu, not entirely convinced that he's scum, as you say. In thread though, he was more adamant about Tofu than he was in PMs, which looks to be the opposite of what you're saying. What was the time period of those PMs?

Do you have any PMs where Oats talks about VE?

I'm not sure if I agree that there's something wrong with what he was saying about Yamato, it's not that he disagrees with Yamato's conclusions (You being town and VE being scum), but more that he disagrees with his behaviour regarding those conclusions. I do agree that he seems like he's acting very tentative in his PMs with you though. Why is that?


On July 17 2013 07:20 strongandbig wrote:
@wiggles:
Did you read my second post? It does not seem like it.

Anyway I think you might be getting too caught up in my language. Do you disagree with my reasons for finding oatsmaster, sloosh, or VE scummy? Or just with the way that I phrased it and the fact that I decided not to pm oats right away? Cause the latter doesn't make much sense as a reason to suspect me.


My read on you was based mostly off of your first post, and not as much your second. I don't disagree with what you're saying about people, so much as how you went about your accusations. For example, I didn't think you were scummy because you thought Oat's first post was scummy, it was because you thought he was scummy, but spent a paragraph going back and forth saying that you thought he was scummy, but might be wrong. If you think he's scummy, you should be straightforward and say so, because making excuses just makes it look like you're looking for a way out if he flips town after.

It also looked bad, because you didn't take a strong decision to actually pursue him. You wrote a paragraph about how we should use PMs to scumhunt, but then don't actually take the opportunity to do so. Talking about what you might do doesn't accomplish anything for town, it just makes it look like you're contributing when you're not. That's the other part of where my suspicion came from.
you gotta dance
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
July 17 2013 20:28 GMT
#392
I think we should lynch MZ.

Of MZ's posts, his first is the only one where he actually comments substantially on other players, and in it, he simply drops an opinion on how people were playing, but with no elaboration or conclusions given.

Of the rest of his posts, he takes an abrasive attitude while refusing to do any kind of scumhunting in the thread or to clarify anything he has said or give further opinions. He was asked several times in thread about his first post, but never answered anyone, and when it was shown that the contradiction he thought he found in Gumshoe's posts was false, he ignored it. This is worse than some players who aren't engaging much with the thread though, because the frequency of MZ's posting and some of the content reveals that he's at least paying cursory attention to the thread, and he's around often enough to post at regular intervals.

His attitude reveals a blatant desire to avoid having to scumhunt in the thread or be accountable for his posts. It's not just that he's not doing anything, it's that he's set himself up in an aggressive manner to try to scare people out of trying to get him to do anything. As well, for a player who seemed excited to play in the game before it started, that same enthusiasm hasn't carried over at all.

Has anyone been in PM contact with him? He said that he was planning on PMing town reads on Day 1, but halfway through the day, it didn't seem that he was in close contact with many people, and unless he's using another player as a proxy to post reads for him, nothing that he could have done there is being reflected in the thread. If MZ is as absent in PM land as he is in the thread, I don't think there's any redeeming qualities to his play.

So, he appears very scummy to me due to his lack of substance, scumhunting, or opinions in the thread, while still having the time to regularly appear to post, his lack of response to any of the criticisms or questions posed to him by others, and the abrasive attitude he's shown to try to avoid having to interact with others in the thread.

##Vote: MZ


I'm null now on Hapa/Marv. It was a suspicion based on his early posting, but he didn't have much follow up and then got replaced, so I don't think it would be a good idea to lynch him.

I'm going to back off a bit on Strongandbig. His later posting is better than his first post, so I don't think he's the best lynch for Day 1.


I think a lynch between MZ and VE would be a good choice. I'm not as sure about the Sloosh lynch. He hasn't done too much, but having a couple posts defending himself is not so bad in my opinion, simply because he was attacked by several people for his opinion on PMs. So, to use posts talking about that after seems natural, similar to how Tofu had posts defending himself based on his post about the traitor.
you gotta dance
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
July 17 2013 23:28 GMT
#458
For the people wanting to kill Malongo, why him over MZ? Looking through his posts, they have nothing to do with the game really. So, you can't call him scum off of content, only really behaviour, due to him posting but not saying anything about the game. MZ though, has been doing something similar, but his posting blatantly mocks the town and shrugs off any responsibility to help. As well, MZ, at least initially, interacted more with the game, but when asked repeatedly to clarify his posts, he did not do so, instead opting to ignore those requests.

So, I'm stumped. Why is Malongo the most villainous of scum, but MZ gets passed over?
you gotta dance
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
July 18 2013 01:24 GMT
#488
On July 18 2013 08:33 Vivax wrote:
Wiggles, do you have masons to talk to at the moment?

MZ is a fine target as well.

Basically anyone with low activity is someone I would kill given this D1 situation.

Need to think again about killing the presumed Chezinu though, even though I ddidn't agree with his claimed suspects, at least he put in more effort than someone like ace. I'd probably not pick him for policy lynching today over all other alternatives.

I haven't spoken to anyone yet.

I'm not as sure now if I like the VE lynch. It feels pretty unopposed and now it's getting band-wagony. I feel as though there's a better chance of hitting red by switching to MZ. Even now, he comes in and simply asks what the best cases are. He's not doing any scum-hunting, and he has the gall to traipse in and make a post just asking who to vote for. Ace did the same thing, but at least he has the benefit of the doubt of not having read the thread.
you gotta dance
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
July 20 2013 18:00 GMT
#808
I haven't posted yet. I was hashing things out in PM yesterday.

I don't think MZ is the best lynch for today. I don't get as much of the same feeling I did yesterday that he's scum.

I generally agree with Vivax's reads and they fall in line with a lot of what I've been thinking. I think Sloosh would be a good choice for the lynch today. I didn't think he was as scummy yesterday, because he was attacked quite early, so focusing more on defense wasn't incredibly alignment indicative, but since yesterday, he hasn't made up for it. After the pressure on him stopped, he hasn't really done anything. He's made an analysis on layabout, but he's not actually pushing for anyone to vote for him. Compare the effort he's put in to getting layabout lynched compared to the effort he put into his defense on Day 1. It's pretty disproportionate. This shows that he was more worried about saving himself from dying compared to the effort he's put into finding scum, and now that he needs to help hunt scum, he's done just enough to look like he's helping.

Additionally, Sloosh was soft-defended by Yamato a few times, with him making excuses for Sloosh's activity and lack of sucmhunting. Even his last post where he says that he maybe wants to lynch Sloosh, he puts a condition on it, saying that he'll only lynch him if he doesn't start scumhunting. This gives sloosh yet another out. This is somewhat relational, and while secondary to what I wrote above, is still another mark against him.

##Vote: Sloosh
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Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
July 20 2013 21:41 GMT
#830
##Give Rayn 5 posts
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Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
July 20 2013 21:44 GMT
#832
Dr. H, where's your head at? You haven't posted since Ace was shot and FirmTofu flipped town. The big thing you were pushing for was a FirmTofu lynch, but now he's dead. So, what are your thoughts now? Who do you think is the best choice to lynch?
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Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
July 23 2013 05:44 GMT
#993
Down like funky town.

Pardoner really screws everything up. Hopefully Sloosh is scum, which I believe he is, but if he's not, it's probably gg.

Here goes nothing.
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Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
July 24 2013 18:57 GMT
#1102
The logs between Sloosh/Marv are a null tell for me. He's going to post those as any alignment. As town he's going to post them because he has no reason to hide them. If he's scum, he's going to post them to confuse town. As SK he's going to post them to try to get town cred. So, the logs themselves don't do that much to help us decide what alignment he is.

Now though, we have a supposed check between MZ and Marv that says they're different. The role is not confirmed though. So, we can't rule out the possibility that the parity cop might be scum lying. It's not a bad ploy to pull, since if town actually believes the claim, you get two possible town lynches for free, and then town has to lynch you, giving scum a free two mislynches and a couple of rounds of night kills for only one scum. So, Rayn, and whoever else knows the identity of the parity cop, should think hard about this person's alignment, and figure out how trustworthy they actually are.

After tonight though, we'll have a much better idea of what to do though. If we're actually going to believe the claim, there's no reason to have to decide between MZ and Marv tonight. The reason for this is due to what's going to happen with the night actions. Now, either the cop is going to die, or he's going to live. If the cop dies, he's confirmed, and we know to lynch between MZ and Marv. If he lives, he'll have another check, and it will condemn one of Marv or Meapak, since he should have two checks the same and one different. So, all should be revealed with the day flip. Now though, the only potential flaw with this, is if mafia have some sort of roleblocker. If the cop claims to be roleblocked, then this is the case where we should focus attention on Marv, MZ, and the cop himself, who might be lying scum.

Based on what Rayn's said, there's about two-degrees of seperation between him and the cop. So, if say Rayn dies tonight or someone else does that breaks that mason chain, and the cop lives, then the cop probably has to claim. If he doesn't claim, or the people masoned to him don't claim the contact, then the check should be disregarded as most likely being fake.

So, I'm waiting for the flips. *Twiddles thumbs*
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Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
July 26 2013 03:17 GMT
#1185
In case you guys weren't aware, this is MYLO unless we have some more power roles kicking around. We have 11 players left, 4 scum left. That makes it 4-7. If we mislynch, it's 4-6, and with another round of two nightkills (As seems to be the norm), that puts us at 4-4 and makes this a loss. So, we have to lynch correctly today unless we want to gamble on the setup.

As such, I think we need to lynch into MZ or layabout. We have a claimed check from a confirmed cop, and it would be silly to disregard that right now. I don't feel like the setup would include a framer, due to balance reasons. Mafia have slightly higher numbers than normal, but town has at least two vig shots with the American and the Vigilante, with the extra N1 kill coming from the Vigilante, or an unclaimed extra role. Mafia seems to have lowered KP, but town also has little protective power, and the Jailer role has drawbacks, in addition to the scum pardoner that gives mafia a free round of kills. As well, town doesn't look like it had other power roles besides the Parity cop, which is weaker than a normal cop in that it is uncertain and still needs to be supported by analysis. So, the inclusion of a framer doesn't make much sense to me from a balance perspective, as it would only serve to weaken an already weakened version of the cop in a set-up more focused on KP than investigative mechanics. As such, I believe the check can be trusted to be real and not have been tampered with as Marvellosity has been claiming.

As I mentioned before, I have just now realized that we are indeed in MYLO. Mafia has probably already realized this though, and know that they only need to assure a mislynch today to win. In that light, the logs between Sloosh and Marv look much worse in the case of Marv being scum than they did before. For the people saying that those logs make no sense in the case of Marv being mafia, think of them in the frame of mafia only needing to mislynch today to win. Sloosh knew he was going to be lynched, and so did his team; the lynch result was a foregone conclusion. As well, assuming that there was scum in the mason chain with Layabout (which makes sense), mafia already knew about the check between MZ and Layabout, and so knew that the objective for today if their night kills went well would be making sure the town between them was lynched. So, why not throw a whole basket of WIFOM into the town to complicate the lynch? All you have to do is make sure that town mislynches, so why not muddy the waters in your favour? This train of thought reconciles the idea of Marv being scum and the logs that exist between him and Sloosh.

My initial reaction based on my reads from the last few days was that MZ was town and Marv was mafia. This was based on the general feeling I got from MZ in PM land, and Marv in the thread*. Now though, with the way the voting is going, and how people are reacting in thread, it still leads me to lean towards Marv being scum. Mafia are probably willing to stick their neck out a little bit more today in order to secure the win. They can taste victory, so they'll probably play riskier if they can win now. That's what makes me distrust the S&B lynch today. I don't particularly trust the people pushing it, and they aren't giving very compelling reasons to lynch S&B over MZ/Layabout today. I feel like there isn't a particularly strong feeling in the thread to kill MZ, so instead of trying to focus the lynch on MZ/layabout, where layabout would be the one lynched in most cases, scum are instead trying to focus onto S&B as he is someone who has had suspicion cast in his direction for quite some time, and so it's probably easier to lynch him than MZ, even with the check.


tl;dr

So right now, I'm thinking it's more probable that Marv is scum and MZ town. I think we should focus our efforts between MZ and layabout, since it's unlikely the check was tampered with. As well, we must all keep in mind that we need to lynch correctly today, or else we probably lose.

*If you hadn't noticed, I was masoned to MZ, and that was why I didn't want to lynch him Day 2, based on what was said there.
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Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
July 26 2013 03:37 GMT
#1189
On July 26 2013 12:30 Oatsmaster wrote:
Wiggles scum, not even reading the thread.

Marv has another check showing him to be the same alignment as FT

Oats #1 scumhunter.

Marv claimed the check. Marv is up on the block to be lynched. His word means very little to me.

Also, this cop has not claimed, nor has the check been corroborated by another player, so Marv's claim of a check existing means absolutely nothing to me. You can't say that another check exists, when the only source for this check is Marv himself. That you take it at face value makes me sad. As I said before, this is MYLO, so if there really is another cop who has more checks, now would be the time to claim. Either to save layabout if he really is town, or to give us another free scum when it's transparent he's lying to save his scumbuddy. I'm fine with either.
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Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
July 26 2013 03:46 GMT
#1191
My bad, I meant marv, not layabout. Was thinking about cops.

Please address the actual point though. Why do you trust Marv's claim that a check exists at face value, when Marv is the only source claiming the check? That's what's horrible here.
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Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
July 27 2013 01:26 GMT
#1278
I'm voting marv. I feel like he's the best lynch for today.

If Oats is lying, he's scum. If he isn't lying, then the existence of a framer is plausible, but I find it more likely that Tofu was framed night 1 than marv was framed Night 3. The only confirmed information is layabout's flip and check, and I'm willing to vote based on that and my own read, rather than rely on an explanation that requires additional unconfirmed role conjecture.

Based on the way the votes are, I'll either be right, or pleasantly surprised. marv seems like the better lynch to me, based on the information I have.

I'm half-expecting a massive vote switch at the end of the day.
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